– Is the Cease-Fire Doomed?

'This ceasefire won't work'
By Ryan Jones

Australian Prime Minister John Howard Sunday said the UN-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hizb'allah has no chance of holding because it is not based on the disarmament of the terrorists.

Speaking to reporters, he said of UN Security Council Resolution 1701:

"It looks good on the surface but I am, myself, a little discomforted by the lack of specificities and the language regarding the disarming of Hizb'allah. Unless there's a clear determination and a clear authority to disarm Hizb'allah this isn't going to work."

As part of its initial war objectives, Israel's leadership stated that it would no longer accept a situation where an armed Hizb'allah sits on its northern border threatening nearly half the nation with missiles supplied by Syria and Iran.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz claim that 1701 has fulfilled Israel's goals in that regard by creating the conditions for Hizb'allah's removal from southern Lebanon and its disarmament in the very near future.

But reports out of Beirut Monday suggested they are both deadly mistaken.

According to Ha'aretz, Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora called a cabinet meeting Sunday to discuss disarming Hizb'allah as a national initiative, which is the only condition under which the terror group said it would consider the option. But Siniora promptly canceled the meeting after Hizb'allah's two cabinet ministers communicated through Parliament Speaker Nabih Beri that the group has no intention of actually laying down its arms.

Lebanese Tourism Minister Joe Sarkiss followed up by telling Al Jazeera:

"The [Lebanese] army will not deploy in the south [in accordance with resolutions 1559 and 1701] unless there are no arms in the south except those of a legitimate military force and UNIFIL."

A day earlier French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy made clear in an interview with Le Monde that French-led peacekeepers would also not employ force against Hizb'allah, even if it refuses to comply.

"We never thought a purely military solution could resolve the problem of Hizbollah. We are agreed on the goal, the disarmament, but for us the means are purely political."

With no one actually willing to disarm Hizb'allah, and the terror group clearly not prepared to voluntarily lay down its arms, Howard's prediction looks set to become reality.