Change is Coming to America

Obama faces dangerous crises from day 1
By GREGORY KATZ

LONDON (AP) — Two difficult wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. A simmering nuclear crisis with Iran. Renewed rivalries with Russia and China. A global financial meltdown spawned on Wall Street. Terrorists almost certainly looking for ways to mount a fresh attack in the U.S.

Not since Franklin D. Roosevelt came to power during the Great Depression has a U.S. president faced such a daunting set of world problems.

But perhaps the biggest foreign policy challenge of all for Barack Obama is restoring America's battered world standing, damaged by global outrage over the Iraq war and by the deep crisis in the capitalist system the U.S. had come to embody.

Eight years ago, the world looked to the United States for leadership. Today, it is increasingly seen as a nation in decline, hobbled by hubris and uninspired leadership — destined, perhaps, to be overtaken by China within a generation.

Can Obama make America as great as it was again?

Buoyed by the extraordinary wave of adulation he has attracted around the globe, the president-elect will have no trouble making the U.S. more popular than it has been under George W. Bush. He will have a harder task restoring American power and influence.

Obama's vision for sweeping foreign policy changes could have a profound effect on the nation's quest to hold onto its role as sole superpower.

The change in course includes globally popular choices such as a phased withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq and strong action on climate change, an issue that many say was neglected by the Bush administration.

Other changes Obama plans are more controversial.

He wants to increase U.S. troop strength in Afghanistan, which he views as the frontline in the battle against al-Qaida. And he has struck a more conciliatory stance with nations shunned as pariahs under the Bush administration.

Obama suggests he would permit direct diplomatic contacts with Iran. He has said he is open to meeting with Cuban leader Raul Castro without preconditions, and he is expected to send envoys to North Korea, which is also believed to be engaged in its own covert nuclear program.

Obama has already made strides in mending frayed trans-Atlantic ties.

His decision to make a high profile political visit this summer to Europe, where he delivered a soaring speech of reconciliation near Berlin's Brandenburg Gate, sent a strong signal that he hopes to engage Europe as a partner — not treat it as a rival or a lackey.

Former British foreign secretary Malcolm Rifkind said rampant anti-Americanism in Europe should abate because of policy changes expected under Obama, including an end to the use of torture and the closure of the prison at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba.

"We all know that the last eight years have reduced America's moral authority," he said. "But many of the issues that have upset much of the world will be resolved."

But while Obama has inspired many around the globe with his idealism and message of change, his inexperience in foreign affairs has also caused worries about whether he can deal with hardliners in North Korea, Russia, Iran, or China.

In a rare public speech, Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, said last week that the next president will preside over a period of increased international instability, a heightened risk of terrorist attacks, an increase in dangerous regional conflicts, and a general waning of U.S. power throughout the world.

Daniel Korski, a European Council of Foreign Relations specialist who has held senior advisory posts in the British and U.S. governments, suggested Obama should tone down his lofty rhetoric to avoid unrealistic expectations.

"He has to tell people this will take time and be a long haul," said Korski, who believes the worsening situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan represents Obama's toughest national security challenge.

The dangers in the two vital countries are clear: seven years after the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan, the Taliban have regrouped and pose a serious challenge in many parts of the country. They have found support in the tribal regions of neighboring Pakistan, where Islamic militants threaten the weak central government that controls the country's nuclear arsenal.

Intelligence experts, diplomats — and Obama's advisers — concede the U.S. military effort, augmented by NATO forces, is faltering.

Paddy Ashdown, former secretary-general of NATO, said a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan would once again be a safe haven for terrorists.

"We're on our way to failure in Afghanistan and the consequences of losing are tremendous," he said. "It means Pakistan falling and nuclear weapons getting into the hands of an Islamist government and the widening of the regional conflict and Afghanistan reverting to a playground for al-Qaida."

He urged Obama to convene an international peace conference with players like Iran and China.

"I think there will be a honeymoon because the world is longing for a U.S. president to give them a reason to love the United States again," he said. "If he makes some bold moves he can really take advantage of it."

Obama's team concurs. But advisers caution that Obama can only transfer combat troops from Iraq to Afghanistan if Iraq remains relatively calm.

The president-elect must also decide how to handle other Middle East problems, particularly the seemingly intractable conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, seen as a source of instability and resentments that breed terrorism in the region.

It is not clear if Obama will make an immediate effort to jumpstart the stalled peace talks between the two enemies.

Obama may wait until an Israeli election in February before getting involved in a situation that bedeviled his two predecessors, said Eugene Rogan, director of the Middle East Centre at Oxford University.

He said that if hardliner Benjamin Netanyahu returns to power in Israel there is little hope for progress.

"If you have Netanyahu, I don't think there is much of a motive for the American president to get active on the peace front because Netanyahu dropped it before and won't go there again," he said.