– China, Growing Superpower

Outside View: China's Growing Global Clout
By MUAZZAM GILL, Outside View Commentator

ANAHEIM HILLS, Calif. (UPI) -- Almost unnoticed by most Western observers, mainland China has taken several recent steps to enhance its long-term power and influence, not only regionally but globally.

A strong possibility exists that by focusing so closely on Iraq -- a focus that is understandable considering how unsettled the situation is -- the United States could miss developments that could affect its standing in the rest of the world.

No matter which continent of the globe one turns to, the growing economic, political, and diplomatic clout of the Peoples Republic of China is clearly evident. As the largest communist nation in the world, China's latest moves in Asia and especially Latin America should be of interest to the United States and its allies.

The world's third major trading bloc -- a new open market of 2 billion people with an overall economic production of around $2 trillion -- has been created in Asia with the signing of an accord between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in the Laotian capital, Vientiane. Planned for completion by 2010 this new economic powerhouse aims to drop most tariffs over the next five years. Overnight, the region has secured a degree of unification capable of matching the bargaining might of the European Union and the North American Free Trade Association. Equally important, it has shifted the weight of strategic influence in the region away from Washington, perhaps permanently, toward China.

Washington faces some deep soul-searching over its growing impotency in Asia. Although it retains strong bilateral security relationships, especially with Japan and South Korea, the United States could be shut out of a broader dialogue as geopolitics go regional. There are already signs that the traditional U.S. leadership role in dispute resolution is being superseded by a more confident and adroit Chinese posture.

What is amazing is that it has taken China just 10 years to win over ASEAN since being condemned by it. China's trade with ASEAN nations has been rising by an average of 20 percent annually for the past decade, with trade volume expected to reach $100 billion this year. Expanding trade with Asian neighbors has required China's leaders to promote good relations with them. Beijing's strategy of persuading other nations to pursue common goals through economic incentives -- such as lowering tariffs on imports -- and diplomacy, rather than coercion, is proving remarkably successful. Southeast Asian nations are convinced they will benefit from new access to China's huge market and from Chinese investment.

ASEAN was founded in 1967 at the height of the Chinese-backed Communist insurgency in Vietnam. Concerned about China's intentions to spread socialism throughout Southeast Asia, leaders of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand joined together against the threat of China's expansionism. Since then, China has abandoned its socialist zeal in favor of a free-market system, and two decades of capitalist-style reforms have made it one of the world's fastest growing economies. ASEAN members now see China and its fast-growing economy no longer as a threat but a potential boon for their exports and a partner in the age of globalization.

China's neighbors, however, may have reason to be apprehensive over their expanding partnership. As Beijing steps up manufacturing of electronics and other high value-added products, traditionally a domain of nations such as Singapore and Malaysia, ASEAN members might be reduced to becoming just another source to provide energy supplies and agricultural produce. Longtime territorial disputes over South China Sea islands between a number of ASEAN nations and China could also flare up and hurt trade.

Furthermore, China's efforts to expand its economic reach and political influence are not confined to its own region.

In his just concluded South American tour, President Hu Jintao visited Chile, Brazil, Argentina and Cuba, highlighting China's continued projection of potential power. China's foreign policy has entered a new era of activism, including a more assertive role not only in Asia and Africa but now in Latin America as well. Hu's 15-day visit involved much more than simply participation in the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Santiago, Chile and meetings with U.S. President George W. Bush and other leaders.

His large entourage of businessmen signed some 400 agreements and business deals in America's back yard. China's influence in the entire region has expanded due to new investments in not only mines and oilfields, but also infrastructure and transport. Hu pledged $100 billion for the region during the next 10 years. In Argentina alone $19.7 billion of Chinese investment will go to mines, railroads, and other infrastructure projects. Latin America presents an opportunity for China in the areas of oil and gas, iron ore, and agricultural produce.

Due to the disparity between the military might of China and the United States, Beijing is likely to steer clear of direct confrontation with Washington. But in terms of the scramble for oil and other resources, competition between major powers such as China, the United States, Japan and India has already reached fever pitch. Prior to Sept. 11, 2001, Bush had characterized the United States and China as "strategic competitors." That perception now needs to be revised and reassessed.

China has lent support to Brazil's bid for a seat on an expanded U.N. Security Council. Brazil's competitors include Japan -- whose candidacy is supported by the United States -- and India. Beijing's apparent success in securing oil supplies from Venezuela may undercut that country's crude exports to the United States, which could increase U.S. dependence on the volatile Middle East.

Following the Bush-Hu meeting in Chile, both leaders made soothing diplomatic noises. Bush praised China's cooperation in the global war against terrorism. Hu vowed to work more closely with the Bush White House.

The reality is that Bush cannot afford to let Beijing's global influence continue unchecked. With leaders in Venezuela and Cuba publicly thumbing their noses at the United States, and a potential economic powerhouse rising in Asia, it is time for Washington to wake up and take stock.

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(Muazzam Gill is a news analyst and vice-president of the American Leadership Institute.)