– China, Growing Superpower

China's global role cannot be ignored
Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service

Where is China heading? The direction the communist country takes is of the utmost concern not only to other East Asian countries, including Japan, but also to the international community.

Over the past quarter of a century, China has achieved average annual economic growth of 9 percent. The Chinese economy, which is expanding by gulping down capital and natural resources as if it were a black hole, now holds sway over the international market in all areas.

This could be seen as proof that China, which firmly established itself as the "factory of the world," has also become the "growth center of the world."

In line with the economy's rapid growth, the country's ambition to become a military power shows no sign of abating. China's military expenditures have increased by more than 10 percent every year since 1989, allowing the country to make marked progress in modernizing its military equipment, geared toward warfare involving advanced technology. In particular, the buildup of its navy and air force has been notable.

The prevailing view has it that the military balance between China and Taiwan will shift to put China in an advantageous position within a few years.

The energy propelling this growth is no longer focused only inward, but has begun to expand outside the country. One after another, Chinese business enterprises are entering the international market. Late last year, a leading Chinese personal computer company purchased International Business Machine Corp.'s personal computer business, sending shock waves around the world.

"Venturing abroad" seems to be the key phrase in China's strategy for making inroads into the foreign market, and its sights are set first and foremost on the countries that belong to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

ASEAN, which was originally seen as an anticommunist bloc, was for a long time at odds with China. From the beginning of grouping's formation, Japan boasted of its political and economic clout over the ASEAN countries. But after the Cold War ended, China stepped up its attempts to establish a presence in ASEAN countries by approaching them both economically and diplomatically, trying to counter Japan's position.

The race between Japan and China to conclude free trade agreements with ASEAN countries is a foretaste of the rivalry between the two countries, which is expected to escalate in the future.

Some predict that China will become the next superpower, surpassing even the United States both economically and militarily, in the first half of this century.

China itself has set a national goal of "achieving a great revival of the Chinese people by the middle of this century."

This "great revival" could mean the rising of a superpower that can compete with the United States, a superpower like the Chinese empire that once dominated Asia. When it comes to a detailed vision of such a China, however, none yet exists.

It is hard to foresee in which direction China's economy, which is the engine for the revival of the empire, will go.

We have no development models for a country with a population of 1.3 billion. How will the problems facing China concerning its natural resources and environment turn out? Will the country be able to deal with rapid social changes under the one-party rule of the Chinese Communist Party? What influence will China's rapid rise on the international scene have on the international order, and what responses will it provoke?

Besides these thorny issues, disparities in income and other problems that have accompanied the country's rapid growth are undermining basic society.

The income disparities among both regions and individuals show no sign of decreasing. While a wealthy class has recently emerged, the jobless rate in urban areas now tops 10 percent, and 150 million workers in rural provinces are deemed to be redundant.

Bureaucrats continue to enjoy the same vested rights they had during the years of a centrally planned economy. Economic development programs often become hotbeds of corruption, while measures taken against the underprivileged, such as evictions, are increasing. Revolts by such underprivileged members of society, such as farmers and the poor, are taking place more often.

Chinese leaders themselves have begun sounding the alarm, saying China is standing at a crossroads between "golden years of development" and "years full of contradictions." This alarm seems reasonable to us.

"Scientific development," which has been the guiding principle of Chinese President Hu Jintao's leadership, is aimed at modifying the doctrine of the economy ahead of everything else, as pursued by former President Jiang Zemin.

It calls for sustainable development that takes the underprivileged and environmental issues into consideration.

But the capability of Hu to pull off this kind of development remains an open question.

While Hu touts politics that makes the interests of the people a priority, he has so far acted only halfheartedly when it comes to anticorruption measures or political reform.

While he advocates cooperation with neighboring countries, the Chinese government has proceeded with marine development projects in areas that do not belong to China, including Japanese territorial waters.

Escalating its policy that Taiwanese independence must be blocked, by force if necessary, China has deployed nuclear submarines in open waters. Among neighboring countries, including those who belong to ASEAN, the view of China as a potential threat is once again on the rise.

The growing nationalistic sentiment in China is also a matter of concern. Nationalism can sometimes become a vent for public discontent. One example of this is the anti-Japanese furor that erupted during the Asian Cup soccer finals, which proved difficult for even public security authorities in China to control.

During his period as leader, Jiang made effective use of anti-Japanese sentiment to maintain the Communist Party's power, which had begun to decline because of a drive toward less ideology, largely an effect of the market economy.

Local supporters of the Chinese soccer team who booed the Japanese national team, and students upset by a skit performed by Japanese students studying in Xian, who turned to mob violence, apparently are relics of the Jiang era.

For the Chinese, celebrating the 60th anniversary of the end of World War II means celebrating their victory in an "anti-Japan war." Will we see any progress away from the Jiang doctrine in China during this historic year? This will be an important factor in predicting future bilateral relations between Japan and China.

No matter what direction China eventually takes, its intentions, and those of its neighbors, including Japan and ASEAN member countries, as well as the United States will continue to comingle over such issues as economic interests and principles of democracy.

It is impossible to keep China at arm's length. In building a new order in East Asia, as well as on a global scale, China must be a factor, although a huge and uncertain one.