– China, Growing Superpower

Experts: China emerging as a major threat
By Chetan Kulkarni - UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL

Washington, DC, (UPI) -- China is a threat that needs to be contained, not by economic engagement alone but by promoting democracy, experts said at the Hudson Institute.

"If we had treated the Soviet Union as an emerging market, it would have still been here," said William Hawkins senior fellow for national security studies at the U.S. Business and Industry Council. He said "China's threat" should be contained by political means such as promoting democracy from inside the Communist Party and through Chinese exiles outside China.
 

Hawkins was speaking Monday at a book discussion on Constantine Menges' "China: The Gathering Threat" at the Hudson Institute, a public policy research organization.

Hawkins said the current approach of widening economic ties with China was a business model that didn't care who is in power as long as the bills are paid. "You can't run foreign policy that way," he said.

Hawkins said he agreed with Menges' recommendation to reorient U.S. trade toward friends and allies instead of letting dictatorial regimes, which suppress freedom, benefit from the profits.

"The mutual gains from trade should be shared among people with compatible goals compatible values and used to build alliances."

Al Santoli, president and director of the Asia America Initiative said Chinese were using information technology effectively and may engage in electronic warfare.

He said the Chinese had ambitions beyond Central Asia and wanted to reclaim their lost glory. "They don't see us as friends," he said. "It's more about who is going to take advantage of whom."

China is a potential economic, political and military superpower that had a sense of history and sees things in a very broad global picture in this interconnected world, Santoli said. The Chinese had learned a lot from the mistakes made by the former Soviet Union and the United States, he said.

"They don't have to match us strength to strength - that was the mistake the Russians made -- but Chinese only look at areas where we are vulnerable on a global level," said Santoli.

"They are practicing and getting ready, should anything happen in the future they could hit us in a place where we are most vulnerable -- that is our communications technology."

He added that China had moved "big time" into Cuba and that recent activity suggested that they had the capability to disrupt U.S. command-and-control systems.

Santoli said disgruntled Russian experts in defense technology who took shelter in China and Iran after the fall of Soviet Union were responsible for the technological advances and nuclear proliferation.

Bill Gertz, defense and national security reporter for The Washington Times, which, like United Press International is owned by News World communications, said the United States did not have a good understanding of long-range goals of China and how it planned to realize those goals. He said China had been successful in its strategy of deception.

Gertz said the military balance on the Taiwan Strait was shifting rapidly in China's favor. According to him, the U.S. government's silence after China passed the anti-secession law was a fundamental change in the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, which is a corner stone in U.S. strategy. After the passage of the law, the Chinese would be justified to use force under domestic law if Taiwan declares independence.

"The Taiwan situation remains a flashpoint," Gertz said. "It increases the possibility of a war by miscalculation."

Santoli agreed with him and said it was "absolutely essential that Taiwan survived" because Taiwan was the only place with ethnic Chinese being exposed to some form of democracy.

Michael Pillsbury author and expert on China and a former senior Pentagon official praised Menges and recounted anecdotes, sometimes imitating Menges' style. He said Menges' willingness to work with Jimmy Carter, Chinese exiles as well as senators like Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., proved the non-partisan approach he took to the solution.

"This is not your standard book on China threat -- they have so many missiles, such large army etc.," he said and added that the book looked at the problem from a variety of perspectives.

Pillsbury said throughout the book Menges "reserved his venom" for those believing in the theory of economic determinism. He said democracy has always come through struggle and never through economic progress.

Santoli said that the Chinese were very good with strategy. He said that they were looking at using specific non-military technological and economic tools such as communications, subversion of currency, global marketing and banking to lay siege on the United States.

Hawkins blamed the industry lobbyist for diverting attention to short term economic gains over security interests. "The Chinese do not lobby," he said. "The American industry does the heavy lifting on their behalf."

Gertz said the Chinese were at a significant disadvantage when it came to oil. The United States should exploit this vulnerability to its strategic advantage.

With its geopolitical influence in Asia, presence in Cuba and its relationship with Venezuela China was projecting its power across the world, Santoli said.

"We have to start playing catch-up real quick."