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from.– Oil Crisis...is
the world about to be shocked
China's oil appetite
could undermine U.S. energy plans
Knight Ridder/ Tribune News Service
China's rapidly increasing thirst for oil is driving up global demand
for petroleum, which on Thursday climbed to almost $49 a barrel. The
cost was just $30 last August.
The surging consumption in China ought to be a wake-up call for the
United States. In the presidential race, American voters should expect
serious discussions about how to trim energy use, improve conservation
measures and develop more renewable sources of energy.
So far Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic nominee, has offered better
plans, especially to boost production of renewable resources such as
wind power. President Bush, unfortunately, touts expensive drilling for
additional crude within the United States and, against all odds,
building more nuclear power plants.
China's dramatic increase in energy consumption - coupled with political
problems in the oil-producing countries of Iraq, Russia and Venezuela -
could have dramatic negative effects on the U.S. and world economies.
Motorists will watch closely what happens to the price of gasoline at
pumps.
Far into the future, China will influence how much Americans have to pay
for the crude they import every day. A few facts:
China last year jumped past Japan to become the world's second largest
consumer of petroleum at around 6 million barrels a day. (The United
States uses 20 million barrels.)
China's annual demand likely will double between 1995 and 2005, compared
with an 18 percent increase in the United States.
Just nine years ago, China produced almost as much oil as it consumed.
Next year, China will satisfy only half its needs.
The country will account for almost 25 percent of the worldwide increase
in petroleum demand between 1995 and 2005. China's total additional
growth of 3.4 million barrels a day during that time would even exceed
the 3.2 million barrel increase predicted for the United States.
Car sales are booming in China, and production was up 80 percent in 2003
compared to 2002. General Motors and Ford are investing billions of
dollars in new plants in China, as are Japanese automakers. When GM
unveiled its Cadillac CTS line in June, a company official told Business
Week, "China will become Cadillac's second-largest market, and this will
happen very speedily."
For the record, the Cadillac CTS line gets only 16 to 19 miles a gallon
in city driving, and just 25 on highways.
Now imagine what could happen to worldwide petroleum-consumption figures
if low-mileage cars and sport utility vehicles were to catch on in a
country with 1.3 billion people.
The recent surge in oil prices could hurt economic growth in the United
States. Given China's soaring demand for crude, weaning America from its
dependence on foreign petroleum is going to be even more important.
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