– WAG the Dog

Wag The Dog?
B. RAMAN

Skepticism mounts in Pakistan that the whole "Al Qaeda plan discovery" is a coordinated attempt by the authorities of the UK and the US, with the collusion of the Pakistani military-intelligence establishment, to divert attention from the growing public criticism of their backing for Israel's military operations in Lebanon.

There is considerable skepticism in informed circles in Pakistan, including the police, over claims being made by the British, US and Pakistani authorities of having thwarted a planned Al Qaeda terrorist strike of catastrophic potential by blowing up 10 US-bound aircraft simultaneously. They suspect that it is a co-ordinated attempt by the authorities of the UK and the US, with the collusion of the Pakistani military-intelligence establishment, to divert attention from the growing public criticism of their backing for Israel's military operations in the Lebanon.

They give the following arguments in support of their skepticism:

To blow up 10 aircraft simultaneously by smuggling liquid explosives inside and assembling an improvised explosive device (ISD) inside would have required at least two suicide volunteers per aircraft, thus making a total of at least 20. Plus, they would have required at least 10 or more support volunteers to back them up. Thus, according to them, an operation of this type would have required a network of at least 50 volunteers whereas the British have arrested only 24 and say that they have arrested all those who were involved.

Those, who claim to know either personally or indirectly the background of the persons of Pakistani origin picked up by the British Police, say that not more four or five of them are motivated strongly enough to serve successfully as suicide volunteers. They claim that the rest of them are not suicide material.

Police sources, who had earlier reported about the visit of some people of Pakistani origin to Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) to participate in earth-quake relief and who were subsequently got trained in the Waziristan training camp of the pro-Al Qaeda Jundullah (Army of Allah), say the number involved was not more than four or five. They also say that these people were not capable of organising a catastrophic terrorist strike of the dimensions mentioned by the British and American authorities. They say their own suspicion was that these peiople were planning another 7/7 in the UK or a terrorist strike in Copenhagen in protest against the caricaturisation of the Holy Prophet in a Danish journal.

During the sermons following the Friday prayers in the mosques and madrasas in the tribal areas of Pakistan on August 11, 2006, the British and American claims were debunked and Gen Pervez Musharraf was accused of helping the British and the Americans in their attempts to spread a canard. The speakers compared this to what they described as the canard spread by the US and the UK about Iraq's alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) before invading that country in 2003 and the dramatic claims about an Al Qaeda plot made by the US' Homeland Security Department before the US Presidential elections of 2004 in order to swing the election results in favour of President George Bush..

Delivering a Friday sermon at the Jamia Mosque Mansoorah at Lahore on August 11, 2006, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) President and Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan Amir, Qazi Hussain Ahmad, said that "the hoax of the bombing plan in passenger planes is a well-orchestrated US and UK ploy to divert the attention of world media from the humiliation meted out to Zionist forces at the hands of Hezbollah in Lebanon." He added that "it is shameful that Islamabad is unilaterally taking credit for extending a helping hand in arresting or unveiling the so called terror plan in American and British planes for which no independent confirmation has yet been made."

The skepticism is not confined to the jihadi circles.

It is also evident in an editorial carried by the highly-respected Daily Times of Lahore on August 12, 2006. It said inter alia:

"Whatever the case, a terrorist act on the alleged scale and coordination would have required months — if not a couple of years — of planning. This means that intelligence operatives, whether in Pakistan, Britain or the US, did not immediately pounce on these men but kept them under watch for a long time and allowed the plot to unfold. This would have required a major effort and the agencies must have got a lot of information while tracking these suspects and intercepting their communications. We flag this point because the lack of information following the bust does not square, either with the commotion in the foreign media or the fact that the intelligence agencies in Pakistan or abroad should have the low-down on these people and be happy to share it with the media.

"The argument that little information is being given because the intelligence agencies do not want to alert other terrorist cells does not wash. The arrests, as we have noted, seem to have come after a patient sting operation and the alleged terrorists were caught just as the plot entered its final phase. In the event, there is no more that the intelligence operatives can do now; as for other terrorist cells, the arrests themselves would force them to scatter, abandon their plans and lie low for a fairly long time.

"We say this because the arrests by the Canadian authorities of dozens of people some months ago have proved to be trumped-up. Similarly, this revelation comes close on the heels of the disappearance of 11 Egyptians in the US. There is also a horrible war going on in Lebanon and it is not unfolding in favour of Israel, the US and UK. Iraq has gone bad; Afghanistan is getting worse. The Bush-Blair duo is in trouble at home and both need something really big to happen to justify their policies and distract attention from their losses. True, this argument comes dangerously close to the realm in which conspiracy theories reside, but the past record of intelligence agencies everywhere suggests they are quite capable of blowing up or underplaying things for better media management of their respective governments’ performance. So a bit of skepticism is in order.

"Of course, there is every possibility that MI5, with ISI’s help, have captured a hoard of terrorists and no conspiracy is afoot to distract attention from Lebanon and Iraq and Afghanistan. But if that is the case then we must be given much more credible information by the UK and Pakistan governments than we have received so far."

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B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai.