News Stories Used in 'Extreme Weather' Word from Commentary
Below are the texts of news stories used in this Word from on the question, "Extreme Weather –Better Reporting or Prophetic Trend?"  We are posting them here as some news sources take down stories after a few days.               

Hurricane losses ranked
by Susan Kim

 

BALTIMORE (November 19, 2004) —
Newly released insurance industry information has ranked all four of this season's hurricanes among the top ten costliest U.S. hurricanes in the past 25 years.

And, taken together, the cost of this season’s storms edges out the cost of Andrew by about $100 million.

A report by the Insurance Information Institute (III) shows Hurricane Charley was the second costliest hurricane, with some $6.7 billion in insured losses. That's a far second to Andrew, which caused about $20.3 billion in losses in 1992.

Hurricane Ivan ranked fourth, with $6 billion in losses, coming just under Hugo's costs of $6.2 billion.

Hurricane Frances came in fifth with insured losses of $4.4 billion, while Jeanne ranked seventh with $3.24 billion. Hurricane Georges - which caused $3.27 billion in damages - barely notched in above Jeanne.

Finally, eighth, ninth and tenth rankings: Hurricane Opal in 1995 with $2.5 billion, Floyd in 1999 with $2.1 billion, and Iniki in 1992 with $2.09 billlion, respectively.

These estimates are for insured losses only, and are in addition to the extensive financial assistance provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and other federal agencies.

The rankings also did not include an estimated $1.2 billion in insurance payments by the Florida state-created insurer of last resort, the Citizens Property Insurance Corporation (CPIC). The CPIC was created by the state about two years ago to provide insurance coverage for homeowners and businesses that could not obtain insurance elsewhere.

The CPIC currently has reserves totaling $1.5 billion. If the CPIC were to use all available funds for payments, it can assess a special charge on all Florida property insurers, which those companies can in turn pass on to their policyholders.

The CPIC is continuing to process insurance claims, and will not have final insurance payment totals until late February 2005.

Mold damage may not be covered

As high as insured losses may appear, one type of damage may not be covered under most homeowner's policies: mold.

According to the III, from the insurance perspective, damage from mold - and rust, rot and mildew - is specifically excluded in the standard homeowners policy.

Mold contamination is covered under the homeowners policy only if it is the result of what insurers call a "covered peril:" for example, the costs of cleaning up mold caused by water from a burst pipe are covered under the policy because water damage from a burst pipe is considered a "covered peril."

But, in the eyes of an insurer, mold caused by water from excessive humidity, leaks, condensation or flooding is a maintenance issue for the property owner - comparable to termite or mildew prevention - and is not covered by the policy.

The number of mold claims submitted to home insurers has increased significantly during the past year, according to the III. Insurance representatives have stated that, if insurers are now going to be asked to pay claims for something that is not covered in the policy, the price of home insurance will inevitably rise.

Changes are likely when it comes to mold-related coverage. Some companies may decide to cover all mold claims and price the policy accordingly, said III. Others may exclude mold, but offer an attachment to the policy - called an endorsement - that allows you to add the coverage. Still other companies may provide a tighter definition of what is and what is not covered. Still others may end up creating an absolute exclusion.

There are 1,000 species of mold that are common in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Common health concerns from molds include hay fever-like allergic symptoms, according to the CDC. People with chronic respiratory disease may experience difficulty breathing. Individuals with immune suppression may be at increased risk for infection from molds.

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Disaster Toll Tripled in 2003 Amid Quakes, Heat Wave

By Stephanie Nebehay

 

GENEVA (Reuters) - Natural disasters killed 76,806 people in 2003, three times the number of victims in 2002, a rise due in part to extremes in the global climate, the world's largest humanitarian body said on Thursday.

 

An earthquake that killed 31,000 people in the Iranian city of Bam and a heat wave in Europe that killed 35,000, accounted for the higher toll, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said.

 

In all, a quarter of a billion people were affected by drought, floods and earthquakes, which caused at least $56 billion in damage in 2003, twice the cost of the previous year, the Federation said in its annual "World Disasters Report."

 

"Overall numbers of reported disasters are increasing, driven partly by a more variable climate. Meanwhile, a rapid increase of population in poorer parts of the world ... is putting more people at risk," the report said.

 

In recent years more accurate satellite forecasting and early warning systems have saved lives.

 

The report said first-aid training, emergency drills and safe building practices can help prevent human and economic losses in risk-prone communities.

 

TEHRAN TIME BOMB

Lack of disaster awareness and poor enforcement of building codes in Bam killed many inhabitants in the quake that measured 6.8 on the Richter scale, the report said.

 

The quake, which also left 30,000 homeless, exposed "serious failures in the country's disaster management, including competition between the army and the Red Crescent," it said.

 

"Bam will not be Iran's last major earthquake -- the country is criss-crossed with fault lines, many of them near large population centers," it said, naming Tehran, Mashhad and Tabriz.

 

With a population of 12 million, the Federation said Tehran was a "time bomb." It was last hit by a major earthquake in 1830.

 

The report found that local rescuers were quicker and often more effective than international teams.

 

Iranian rescue teams saved "seven times more people than all the international teams that flew in from abroad," said the report's author Jonathan Walter at a news conference.

 

But more funding is needed from donor countries to develop the ability of countries to tackle emergencies alone as international teams are more expensive.

 

In one example of better local readiness, the report said residents of the Tuti island, in the heart of Sudan's capital Khartoum, were more prepared to cope with floods.

 

Houses had raised entrances and water-resistant mud was used on walls. A flood committee organized 24-hour patrols, while volunteers used drums and the mosque's megaphone to warn the population when river waters rose.

 

As a result, Tuti's 15,000 residents withstood flooding without major casualties or by depending on external aid.

 

(Additional reporting by Richard Waddington)

 

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Activity at 8,000-Year High

By Robert Roy Britt -Senior Science Writer

Sunspots have been more common in the past seven decades than at any time in the last 8,000 years, according to a new historic reconstruction of solar activity.

Many researchers have tried to link sunspot activity to climate change, but the new results cannot be used to explain global warming, according to the scientists who did the study.

Sunspots are areas of intense magnetic energy. They act like temporary caps on upwelling matter, and they are the sites of occasional ferocious eruptions of light and electrified gas. More sunspots generally means increased solar activity.

Sunspots have been studied directly for about four centuries, and these direct observations provide the most reliable historic record of solar activity. Previous studies have suggested cooler periods on Earth were related to long stretches with low sunspot counts. From the 1400s to the 1700s, for example, Europe and North America experienced a "Little Ice Age." For a period of about 50 years during that time, there were almost no sunspots.

But a firm connection between sunspot numbers and climate remains elusive, many scientists say.

Better record

The new study, led by Sami Solanki of the Max Planck Institute in Germany, employed a novel approach to pinning down sunspot activity going back 11,400 years:

Cosmic rays constantly bombard Earth's atmosphere. Chemical interactions create a fairly constant source of stuff called carbon-14, which falls to Earth and is absorbed and retained by trees. But charged particles hurled at Earth by active sunspots deflect cosmic rays. So when the Sun gets wild, trees record less carbon-14.

While trees don't typically live more than a few hundred years or perhaps a couple thousand, dead and buried trees, if preserved, carry a longer record, "as long as tree rings can be identified," said Manfred Schuessler, another Max Planck Institute researcher who worked on the study.

The study's finding: Sunspot activity has been more intense and lasted longer during the past 60 to 70 years than at anytime in more than eight millennia.

Sunspot activity is known to ebb and flow in two cycles lasting 11 and 88 years (activity is currently headed toward a short-term minimum). Astronomers think that longer cycles -- or at least long-term variations -- also occur. Scientists in other fields have shown that during the past 11,000 years, Earth's climate has had many dramatic shifts.

"Whether solar activity is a dominant influence in these [climate] changes is a subject of intense debate," says Paula Reimer, a researcher at Queen's University Belfast who wrote an analysis of the new study for Nature. Why? Because "the exact relationship of solar irradiance to sunspot number is still uncertain."

In general, studies indicate changes in solar output affect climate during periods lasting decades or centuries, "but this interpretation is controversial because it is not based on any understanding of the relevant physical processes," study member Schuessler told SPACE.com. Translation: Scientists have a lot to learn about the Sun-Earth connection.

Better understanding

The study's methods appear solid: "The models reproduce the observed record of sunspots extremely well, from almost no sunspots during the seventeenth century to the current high levels," Reimer said.

The research could eventually help scientists understand why the climate has changed in the past and allow for better predictions of future change.

"The reconstructed sunspot number will nonetheless provide a much-needed record of solar activity," Reimer said. "This can then be compared with palaeoclimate data sets to test theories of possible solar–climate connections, as well as enabling physicists to model long-term solar variability."

Whatever the result, change is likely to continue.

Solanki's team calculates that, based on history, the chances of sunspot activity remaining at the currently high levels for another 50 years is 8 percent. Odds are just 1 percent the solar exuberance will last through the end of this century.

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More killer heatwaves predicted

By STEVE CONNOR and TONY PATERSON in Berlin -02.11.2004

Killer heatwaves will become more deadly as the population grows older and the climate becomes warmer, according to a major study on global disasters.

The developed world can expect to suffer the disastrous effects of even hotter summers than the one last year in Europe, which is estimated to have killed up to 35,000 people.

A report by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies warns that more extreme heatwaves can be added to the list of natural and man-made disasters that will affect the world in the coming decades.

Extreme summer temperatures in the developed world will be an extra problem affecting humanity in the 21st Century, said Markku Niskala, secretary-general of the federation.

"The face of disasters is changing. Soaring urban populations, environmental degradation, poverty and disease are compounding seasonal hazards such as droughts and floods.

"The developed world faces new threats, too. Five degrees more summer heat than usual triggered a disaster that shamed modern, wealthy societies across Europe in 2003.

"Up to 35,000 elderly and vulnerable people suffered silent, lonely deaths, abandoned by state welfare systems in retreat," he said.

Although heatwaves in wealthy, industrialised countries often kill thousands of people, they are rarely seen as natural disasters, according the Red Cross's World Disasters Report 2004.

"People in temperate countries find it hard to imagine heat as a disaster. With floods or hurricanes you can see the damage in a matter of minutes or hours.

"With heat, usually the worst to happen is that roads buckle, trains derail and livestock die."

The report comes as the environment takes centre stage in Europe when the Queen opens a high-profile conference in Berlin on Thursday which will set out an agenda for bilateral co-operation on climate change for the next decade.

The Berlin summit, which will be attended by German Environment Minister Jurgen Trittin, UK Foreign Minister Jack Straw, UK Environment Minister Margaret Beckett, and Sir David King, the Government's chief scientific adviser, will come a day after the US presidential elections and will prepare recommendations to British Prime Minister Tony Blair for Britain's Presidency of the G8 next year.

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China in for Extreme Weather as Climate Change Felt

Planetark.com

CHINA: November 11, 2004


BEIJING - China can expect more droughts, floods and other extreme weather as it struggles to balance rapid development with environmental concerns, a report on climate change released this week said.


The report, part of China's commitment to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, comes as parts of south China suffer their worst drought in 50 years, withering crops, drying up reservoirs and cuts to power supplies.

"It (global warming) affects food security, education, child and maternal mortality and the basic biological systems on our planet and if action is not taken today we are seriously endangering our future livelihood," UNDP China Representative Khalid Malik told a news conference.

"Meanwhile, energy consumption is expected to double, the use of natural resources will continue to grow and this puts China in an extremely vulnerable position as it aims to ensure sustainability."

China, whose cities are choked by car exhaust, construction dust and emissions from coal-burning factories, has issued a series of policies aimed at directing and standardizing energy conservation.

But Tuesday's report is based on data from 1994 - a lifetime ago given the country's pace of development - and it acknowledges a "weak position with regard to data" and the lack of a standard approach to collection of information.

It warns that climate change could affect crop yields, resulting in a 10 percent reduction in food production by 2050, and says melting glaciers and rising sea water could affect supplies of freshwater.

But the report, which tapped 400 experts working under a national commission on climate change, says greenhouse gas emissions per capita are still lower than that of developed countries, indicating government policies may be having some effect.

China has approved the Kyoto climate change treaty but has no obligation to cut carbon dioxide emissions during the pact's first phase until 2012.

 

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Endangered Planet?

STEPHEN McGINTY

IN THE ARCTIC, where the polar bears hunt and the seal cubs hide, the ice is melting. As temperatures rise, the ice breaks down and the new water runs off and into the sea. Across the globe, slowly, almost imperceptibly, the sea level has risen and its salt levels have been diluted. Global warming is at work.

Across Asia, savage storms and incessant rain this summer sent floods sweeping through Bangladesh and India drowning people in their beds and new-born infants tied to their mothers’ backs. When the waters finally receded, they revealed a death toll in the thousands.

In America, the devastation wrought by the four hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne that tore across Florida, smashing homes like twigs in their grasp, is calculated in the tens of millions of dollars. Last summer, central Europe was turned into a griddle on which whole countries were cooked and forests burned; Switzerland endured its hottest summer in 250 years and in France 15,000 people, mainly the old and infirm, succumbed to the heat.

The evidence for extreme weather is all around us and global warming has been saddled with the blame. You know the situation is serious when the Queen weighs into the debate - as she did last week at the eve of a major environmental conference in Berlin - or when Britain’s chief scientific adviser, Sir David King, describes climate change as a far greater threat to world stability than international terrorism.

Yet when you open the window to another dreich day, it’s hard to muster any concern for the fact that Scotland’s chilly temperatures may rise a couple of degrees as a result of climate change. An examination of the data, however, is enough to startle even those of us who pride ourselves on taking an ostrich-like attitude to the environment.

At the heart of the problem is the fact that the earth’s average global temperature has risen by 0.6°C since 1900. It is now beginning to rise at a rate of 0.2°C per decade. This may not sound much, but the consequences have been dramatic, most notably the melting ice.

In the Arctic, during the past 30 years, ice coverage has been reduced by 10 per cent and the thickness of the ice cut in half. Sea levels have risen by almost a metre within the last century. Glaciers are in retreat and at their lowest level in 5,000 years; 10 per cent of Switzerland’s glaciers melted during the furnace summer of 2003 and it is estimated 75 per cent could be gone by 2050. As Pal Prestrud, vice-chairman of the Arctic Council, explains: "Climate change is not just about the future; it is happening now. The Arctic is warming at twice the global rate."

The blame for global warming has been laid at the door of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). These are by-products of industrialisation, belched out by the engines of the world since the mid-19th century, which is around the time the rise in the earth’s temperature began. The greenhouse gases have turned up the temperature by their ability to reflect the sun’s rays. Prior to their increased presence in the atmosphere, the rays hit the earth and bounced back into space. CO2 in the atmosphere acts like a cushion on a snooker table, with the sun’s rays hitting the earth, bouncing back into the sky, then hitting the CO2 and bouncing back to earth again.

Concentrations of CO2 in our lower atmosphere have risen by 34 per cent since the industrial revolution and are at an all-time high. Yet it’s not all the fault of industry; bovine flatulence and the methane emissions of other animals contribute to rising levels of greenhouse gases, as well as the simple tilling of a field, which turns over carbon.

Just as a pan of water on a hob slowly begins to bubble, so our global weather systems have begun to react. Throughout the 20th century we have experienced higher daily minimum temperatures across the globe, rainfall has increased over countries in the mid-to-high latitudes (such as Scotland) and dropped in the tropics. Three of the hottest summers on record, 1998, 2002 and 2003 have occurred in the last six years, which led scientists to dub the scorching months of July and August 2003 as "the summer of the future".

Jacqueline McGlade, executive director of the European Environment Agency (EEA) says: "What is new is the speed of change. The glaciers, at sea level, like big tankers turning, take a long time to change. Now we see them changing direction and there are warning signals in many parts of our life."

These signals are everywhere. America is experiencing more tornadoes; in 2003, India endured pre-monsoon heatwaves of unusual ferocity, which killed 1,400 as temperatures topped 49°C; in 2002 Australia suffered the longest drought in its recorded history; in the same year, floods killed 80 people in 11 European countries. Such events moved the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to say the world was experiencing a record number of extreme weather events.

Dr Buruhani Nyenzi, chief scientist of World Climate Applications, part of the WMO’s World Climate Programme, says: "Such extreme events are fully consistent with our understanding of global climate change resulting from human activities, which include burning of fossil fuel for transportation and industry, certain agricultural practices and natural factors, such as major earthquakes." The WMO says "expected changes include continued warming and sea level rise, increased extreme weather events such as dry/wet spells which could be associated with severe droughts and floods, higher maximum temperatures associated with heatwaves."

So exactly what can we expect in the future? It is a problem that Dr Gerald Meehl of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the US has wrestled with for most of his professional life. His judgment is stark: "Extreme weather events will have some of the most severe impacts on human society as the climate changes." Giant NCAR computers have taken in billions of variables in global weather systems, crunched the numbers and come up with startling predictions: hurricanes will increase in intensity, and El Niño - the anomalous warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean which can result in extreme weather conditions - will get even warmer.

Heatwaves, which can kill more people in a shorter time than almost any other climate event, are also expected to rise in frequency, temperature and duration. The NCAR study found that in Chicago, heatwaves will rise by 25 per cent and last up to nine days. In Paris, the number will increase by 31 per cent and last up to 17 days. Freezes - winter cold snaps when the temperature drops below zero - will also fall in frequency and duration. In fact, it is estimated that by 2080, cold winters could disappear almost entirely from Europe.

Or the exact opposite could happen. So fickle are the world’s weather patterns that instead of warming up, Europe and North America could be plunged into a new ice age. This controversial theory was posited by the hit movie The Day After Tomorrow, and, like many Hollywood movies, there is a kernel of truth behind the schmaltz. Environmentalists fear that as Arctic ice melts, it will dilute ocean salt levels, which are crucial to carrying warm water around the globe and so preventing Scotland from enduring the same freezing winters as Nova Scotia and Moscow, which are on the same latitude.

Or everyone could be wrong. Although small in number, a group of scientists believes it is only man’s arrogance that convinces him his activities over the past 150 years, a millisecond in the life of the planet, has resulted in the Earth heating up.

What is known is that through its long history, the Earth has, like lungs breathing in and out, heated up and cooled down. A thousand years ago, southern Britain was more suited to growing vines than much of France. Yet for the next 700 years our weather grew colder, culminating in the little "ice age" in 1693, when millions across Western Europe died through harvest failures. In the 1650s, the Thames froze solid and fairs were held on the ice.

Economic losses as a result of freak weather have doubled in the last 20 years to around £6 billion, while thousands of lives have been lost.

As a result, scientists are anxious to develop an arsenal of "weaponry" they can use against rogue weather. In America, NASA has spent $500,000 on research into how hurricanes can be re-directed or weakened. Researchers have found a satellite beaming microwaves around a storm would heat the water vapour and weaken its strength. A second solution is to disperse a biodegradable oil slick in the hurricane’s path to limit the amount of water it is able to evaporate. Other research is being carried out into how tornadoes can be tackled.

In Russia, the military has used "cloud-seeding" techniques to move rain away from St Petersburg during the city’s 300th anniversary celebrations in 2003. The same tactic has been adopted to help stimulate rainfall in China.

Yet our weather systems at their most ferocious illustrate a central paradox: If global warming is as a result of our actions, then we have switched on a "machine" that could take centuries to switch off - if it can be switched off at all. As Arthur "Bomber" Harris said of Nazi Germany: "We have sown the wind, now we shall reap the whirlwind."

 

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 Natural disasters claiming more lives
 Globe and Mail

Thursday, October 28, 2004

Geneva -- Natural disasters killed 76,806 people in 2003, three times the number in 2002, a rise due in part to extremes in the global climate, the world's largest humanitarian body said today. An earthquake that killed 31,000 in the Iranian city of Bam and a heat wave in Europe that killed 35,000 accounted for the higher toll, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said.

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Natural disasters cost China billions
China View

BEIJING, Nov. 9 (Xinhuanet) -- The cost of natural disasters is growing steadily in China as the government has forced to set aside more than ten billion yuan or 1.2 billion US dollars a year for relief measures, reported China Radio International on Tuesday.

    Statistics show in 1990s, 370 million people suffered from natural disasters every year, and direct loss totaled 100 billion yuan; a 40 percent increase over the decade of the 80's.

    Experts say that, though China has set up a system for the management of natural disasters, it still lags behind from providing adequate relief.

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Whole lotta shakin' going on in 2004
Seismologists alarmed by rash of quakes rattling around globe
 

WorldNetDaily.com

 

As global relief efforts were still focused on the devastating 6.6 earthquake that struck Iran last week, killing more than 30,000 and leaving some 40,000 homeless, seismologists were studying a new rash of temblors striking the planet's "ring of fire."

In Indonesia, a powerful earthquake shook the tourist islands of Bali and Lombok yesterday, injuring nearly 30 people and damaging dozens of buildings. On Lombok, 22 people were injured and one elderly man died, apparently of shock as a result of the quake, which the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency said measured 6.1 on the Richter scale. The undersea quake struck shortly before dawn in the Straits of Lombok.

On Bali, at least seven people were hurt as they ran in panic from houses on the east of the island, a hospital spokesman said. The local hospital was also damaged.

Meanwhile, yesterday, a medium-intensity earthquake centered near Mexico's Pacific Coast tourist spots was felt as far away as Mexico City, but caused no reported injuries.

"The only thing was panic among tourists in Acapulco," officials of the Earthquake Alert System told local radio stations.

The quake, measuring 5.3 on the Richter scale, had its epicenter in the western state of Guerrero on the Pacific coast, the officials said.

Local radio stations said that poorly built homes suffered damage in Guerrero state and electricity was momentarily cut in the region. An aftershock reached 5 on the Richter scale. It was felt in the western and central parts of the country, including Mexico City, with 22 million inhabitants.

An undersea earthquake measuring 5.9 on the Richter scale rocked Taiwan yesterday, but there were no immediate reports of damage or casualties, seismologists said.

A quake with a magnitude of 6.6 jolted Taiwan Dec. 10 – the most powerful one to have hit the island in 2003 – but left only minor damage and injuries in some southern cities.

A minor earthquake struck California's central coast early today, the largest in a series of aftershocks in the last two days in the vicinity of last month's killer quake.

There were no reports of damage or injuries from the magnitude 4.2 quake.

Hundreds of small to minor aftershocks have struck since a magnitude-6.5 earthquake Dec. 22 killed two women in Paso Robles, about 25 miles to the east, and caused at least $200 million in damage.

Eight aftershocks recorded yesterday and early today have had a magnitude of 3 and higher, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

The 4.2 quake hit at 2:48 a.m., following a magnitude-3.9 about three minutes earlier.

In Russia, seismologists have seen a 50 percent increase in the force of tremors hitting the southern mountains in the republic of Altay in the last few days. In September the area was hit by a 7.5 quake.

The new shocks hinder the reconstruction work that has started in Kosh-Agachskiy and Ulaganskiy districts, most badly hit by the first tremors. Over 1,000 homes were destroyed or damaged there, leaving homeless some 2,000 residents.

Five small tremors shook the Dead Sea area southwest of the Jordanian capital on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day but there were no reports of damage or casualties, seismologists said yesterday.

The first tremor occurred Wednesday afternoon and measured 3.3 on the Richter scale, Mohammed Gharaybeh, of the natural resources authority, told Petra news agency, adding that the Dead Sea area is subject "continuously" to such activity.

Four other tremors occurred in the evening and overnight, with the lowest measuring 2.5 on the Richter scale and the strongest 3.8, he added.

The Dead Sea is the lowest body of water on Earth. It currently lies at 1,366 feet below sea level after having dropped by three meters over the past three years.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, there were at least seven earthquakes of a magnitude of 5.0 or greater around the world yesterday alone. Central California was hit by 21 quakes that day – none of them reaching 5.0.

On Dec. 27, a 7.3-magnitude quake hit southeast of the Loyalty Islands, a sparsely populated area about 1,000 miles east of Australia.

The day before that, the 6.6 earthquake hit southeast Iran.

Is there a connection between these quakes? No, says John Minsch, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colo. The recent spate of quakes is just coincidence, said Minsch.

"They're not even on the same fault line. There are just periods of time when they all seem to happen at once," he said.

Does the spate of recent earthquakes give any indication the world is on the brink of an even bigger one? No again. Mensch told Disaster News Network: "Clusters of earthquakes offer no indication or prediction of what will happen."

Though scientists can crunch numbers and offer statistics and probabilities regarding upcoming earthquakes, "that doesn't give you a whole lot," admitted Mensch, "in that we can't say when and how big."

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