Is the Cease-Fire Doomed?

By Chris Cumming

This cease-fire and UN Resolution 1701 were doomed before the ink was dry.  Mankind is once again going to confirm to the World that it knows not the way to peace.  Look at the headlines published within hours of the declared cease-fire:

This ceasefire won't work
Annan: Ignore Hezbollah violations
Israel's peace partners still seek its demise
Gaza Arabs look to repeat Hezbollah successes
Cease-fire deal contains 'holes'
Mid-East Cease-Fire Won't Hold
Mideast truce threatened
This war is far from over'
Residents doubt longevity of ceasefire

The Security Council resolution lacks specific language, says nothing about the disarming of Hezbollah and stands unacceptable by the Israeli military who is already crying foul and shooting numbers of Hezbollah fighters. As we have stated in our news commentaries, this is a proxy war between Syria/Iran and Israel/US.  Placing a cease-fire on the proxy war does nothing to stop the real war.  Indeed, the Arabs in Gaza see this as a Hezbollah win and will now launch more bloodshed in Gaza.  The Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon will rearm.

Nothing in cease-fire about disarming Hezbollah
Australian Prime Minister John Howard said, “Unless there's a clear determination and a clear authority to disarm Hezbollah this isn't going to work."

Israel will no longer accept the idea of an armed Hezbollah sitting on its northern border threatening almost half the nation with missiles and weapons from Syria, Iran and other nations.

Israeli Foreign Ministry Spokesman said. "We have less control over what the Arab side does. If there are violations on the Arab side, Israel will have to respond.”

Israel is reserving their right to defend themselves during the cease-fire.  The problem is there is nothing in the cease-fire resolution to define what “defend themselves” means.  One reporter for the Toronto Star stated, “Western diplomats and UN officials said they feared Israel's broad definition of ‘defensive’ actions could lead to a resurgence in large-scale fighting, preventing the swift deployment of international troops meant to monitor a ceasefire.”

Kofi Annan wants Israel to stand down even if Hezbollah violates cease-fire

Kofi Annan actually had the guts to tell the Israeli military to ignore Hezbollah violations of the agreement.  Can you imagine such an asinine statement?  Does anyone really believe Israel will stand by as more rockets are fired into their towns and villages or another of their armored tanks is taken out?

French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy made clear in an interview with Le Monde that French-led peacekeepers would also not employ force against Hezbollah, even if it refuses to comply.

In effect, the UN chief [Kofi Annan] was saying that Israel should totally ignore Hezbollah efforts to reestablish itself in southern Lebanon and Syrian efforts to resupply the group, and should only respond in a very pinpoint manner to any further firing of missiles at northern Israel.

Israel’s citizens and military outraged at its own leadership
In another quote from the Toronto Star today, “Commentators in the Israeli media yesterday generally were critical of the agreement, expressing either disappointment or outrage with the government for cutting a deal rather than pressing on with the military campaign, bloody though it has been.”

Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is not a career military man and he attempted to conduct this war against Hezbollah on a diplomatic level rather than an all-out military one.  This threatens to bring an abrupt end to his government as the nation seeks to bring in a combat leader committed to removing the enemy threats.

Further reading:
Booklets:
Mideast Strife -- Will It Lead to Armageddon?

Our News Commentaries:
"WAG the Dog"
"The Proxy War"
"Whistling in the Dark"
"Israel Goes on Offensive"
"Gaza Withdrawal...Will It Bring Peace?"
"Is Iran Next?"

Resources:

UN Resolution 1701

Photos:
Left: Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah
Middle: Rocket
Right: Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert