Another View of
Russia’s Invasion of Georgia
How vulnerable must
Europe be feeling right about now? At this writing,
Russia is claiming
observance of a “cease fire” amid the rubble and misery that the
attack on
Georgia has wrought [see
map below]. Live satellite transmissions dispute that
claim, and
Russian bombers are still swarming the Georgian skies.
We’ve posted and linked several news articles at
garnertedarmstrong.org
chronicling the carnage that has transpired, and you can’t help
being moved by the heartrending agonies befalling tens of thousands
of civilians of all ages.
The Russian blitz involving tank columns and troops in addition to
aircraft has been billed as a response to Georgian aggression in
South Ossetia.
But some U.S. military experts are confident that the Russian
invasion of Georgia must have been pre-meditated and staged in
advance due to the terrain and the logistics involved in their early
arrival on the ground. Another obvious question is whether the
hostilities were planned for a time when the world’s attention would
be elsewhere, namely, the
Olympic
games in Beijing.
Many see this development as Russia seizing an opportunity to lash
back against the humiliation they’ve borne with the collapse of the
U.S.S.R., the
loss of vast east European possessions, and at the same time regain
some of the fearsome respect they once enjoyed. [see
story]
The oil aspect cannot be ignored. The world’s second longest oil
pipeline transports crude oil all the way from
Azerbaijan and
the Caspian Sea
across the Caucasus
Mountains [see
story 1 see
story 2], through the heart of Georgia and then across
Turkey en-route to
Europe. U.S. and
World Bank financial entities gave loan guarantees to help
finance its construction, a large stake in the pipeline is held by
British
Petroleum (30%), and smaller percentages include other major
U.S. oil companies. Russia was opposed to the pipeline from the
beginning, viewing it as an intrusion on its oil sales to Europe.
The pipeline is currently reported to be shut down amid numerous
reports that segments have been bombed inside Georgia. So far, the
global price of oil has not been noticeably affected. But as Europe
is the main destination for much of that oil, it must contribute to
the sense of vulnerability that all Europeans must be experiencing
in the face of this brutal demonstration of
Russian military might.
Another aspect along that train of thought must be the bitter
reality that the U.S. is in no position to intervene, beyond
diplomatic condemnations, on behalf of the Georgian population. They
surely believed their alliance with the West, and the U.S. in
particular, would protect them against the kind of desperate
situation that has engulfed them. A stern statement from
Condoleezza
Rice isn’t exactly what they had in mind.
Western Europe
may well be experiencing similar misgivings. [see
story 1,
story 2 and
story 3]
This may well contribute to a sense of urgency among members of the
EU that will
contribute to the logic that Europe needs to take responsibility for
its own military defense at a time when the U.S. has so many current
and potential complicated military and diplomatic entanglements.
Georgia desperately wanted to be accepted under the umbrella of
NATO. The Russian
invasion is widely believed to have pushed that idea out of reach,
and some suspect that was a major part of
Putin’s
calculation. What, after all would have been NATO’s response if
Georgia had been a member nation?
Russia may be the humiliated former master of the U.S.S.R., but it
still has an aggressive military capability at the ready and is a
nuclear superpower. As much of the world tries to revel in the
universal spectacle of the Summer Olympics, that fact is emblazoned
and weighing heavily on the world’s consciousness, particularly in
Europe’s close proximity.
Several reports also indicate that there is a strong
Israeli interest
in and involvement with the oil pipeline, and Israel is even rumored
to have been advising Georgia’s military commanders in the initial
conflict in South Ossetia that became the excuse for the Russian
invasion.
A confluence of interests is at stake here that is dear to the West,
to Russia, and to Israel, not to mention the former possession of
the former Soviet Union. It may bear importantly in the big picture
of geopolitics,
and ultimately contribute to the scenario of Bible prophecy.
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