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World on brink of 'post-Western age'
by Andrew Rettman

The world is “on the brink” of a “post-Western age”, a leading German think tank has warned.

“Some of the most fundamental pillars of the West and of the liberal international order are weakening … [and] the willingness and ability of Western democracies to shape international affairs and to defend the rules-based liberal order are declining,” Wolfgang Ischinger, a former German diplomat who now chairs the Munich Security Conference (MSC), said.

“We may, then, be on the brink of a post-Western age, one in which non-Western actors are shaping international affairs,” he added, referring to countries such as China, Russia, and Turkey.

Ischinger’s warning was contained in a study by the MSC published on Tuesday (14 February), ahead of the think tank’s annual symposium on transatlantic security this weekend.

He said that if US president Donald Trump made good on his promise to pursue “a more unilateralist, maybe even nationalistic foreign policy” it could spell the end of the post-WWII era of Western solidarity.

The MSC study added that if Trump made a deal with Russian leader Vladimir Putin over the future of Ukraine it could also mean the end of a rules-based international order more broadly speaking.

“This could signal a new era of great powers determining the fate of smaller ones,” the study said.

Looking at the war in Syria, it posed the question that, in the absence of Western leadership: “Should a genocide be perpetrated somewhere in the world in the coming months, would anybody step in?”.

Trump has flip-flopped in his comments on Nato, saying both that it was “obsolete” and “very important.”

The proportion of Trump supporters who believed that the US should decrease its Nato commitment (24%) or withdraw from the alliance (13%) formed a large segment of his constituency, however.

In a wider trend, which the MSC linked to stagnating incomes and to fears of globalisation, public support for authoritarian rulers climbed by some 10 percent in the US over the past 20 years. It climbed by much higher factors in some parts of Europe, such as Romania and Spain, and even rose in Germany.

“The main dividing line in politics runs less and less between left and right but between a liberal cosmopolitan pole and a populist (or even xenophobic authoritarian) one,” the MSC said.

“Populist parties are now part of the government in about a dozen Western democracies. And even in countries where populists only received a small share of the vote, they often exert a defining influence by … pressuring mainstream parties to adopt different policy agendas.”

The MSC also said that public support for the parallel “international economic order”, as embodied in the World Trade Organisation and in multilateral trade treaties, such as Ceta (EU-Canada) or TTIP (EU-US), was “unravelling”.

Fake worlds
It said that disinformation campaigns were fuelling the trend.

It noted that Russian propaganda in Germany had helped the populist AfD party reach 30 percent support and that 31 percent of German left-wing voters now trusted Putin more than German chancellor Angela Merkel.

It said Russia’s main foreign propaganda channel, RT, was outspending France and Germany’s top international media, France Medias Monde and DW, and was far more popular than either on YouTube.

It added that China’s state media, CCTV, had a bigger budget that RT, France Medias, DW and the BBC combined, however.

It also noted that the Trump administration was guilty of spreading fake information.

“If politicians, for instance, lie about crowd sizes, say demonstrably wrong things about previously held positions and suggest that falsehoods are merely ‘alternative facts,’ can citizens and allies trust them?”, it said, referring to a Trump spokesman's lies about the size of the crowd at his inauguration.

“The main threat is that citizens’ trust in media and politicians might further erode, creating a vicious cycle that threatens liberal democracy,” it said.

Regrexit
The MSC noted that the EU had also suffered a blow to its credibility in the Brexit vote, but that it was trying to bounce back via deeper integration on economic issues, immigration policy, and security.

In one piece of good news for the EU, it noted that Brexit had prompted feelings of “Regrexit”.

Citing post-UK referendum polls, it said EU approval ratings last summer rose to over 60 percent in countries such as Poland, Hungary, Sweden, Germany, Greece, Italy, France, Spain, and also the UK itself.

It said the number of people who wanted to leave the EU had also shrunk in Poland, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and the UK.

"If the EU wants to prove to itself and to its skeptics in and outside Europe that it is capable of being a 'superpower that believes in multilateralism and in cooperation,' as [EU foreign policy chief] Federica Mogherini recently put it, a common foreign policy strategy backed with sufficient military power is widely seen as a strategic necessity,” the MSC said.

“EU countries will have to set aside their differences, including concerns that the new plans will divert resources away from Nato … When, if not now, should Brussels’ clout in the world ever be on top of the menu?”, it said.

https://euobserver.com/foreign/136896



by Eric Maurice

The "still-to-be-clarified intentions" of the Donald Trump administration in the US are the main risk to the EU economy, together with Brexit and upcoming elections in Europe, the European Commission has said.
In its Winter Economic Forecasts published on Monday (13 February), the EU executive said that the EU economy could grow by 1.8 percent in 2017 and 2018, with the eurozone growing by 1.6 percent in 2017 and 1.8 percent in 2018.

Last November, it expected the EU economy to grow by 1.6 percent in 2017 and 1.8 percent in 2018, and the eurozone by 1.5 percent and 1.7 percent.
The forecasts have been revised upwards due to "better-than-expected performance in the second half of 2016 and a rather robust start into 2017."

For the first time in 10 years, the commission noted, all EU countries were expected to grow in 2017 as well as 2018.

But the commission warned that "exceptional risks" and a "particularly high uncertainty" surrouded its latest forecasts.

Less than two weeks after Trump took over as president of the United States, "the US represents the single most important source of uncertainty," EU economy commissioner Pierre Moscovici told journalists.

He admitted that Trump's expected stimulus package would boost global GDP "more than expected", but he pointed out that in the medium term, "shifting US position on trade policy may damage international trade" and that a "fast rise in interest rates and a stronger than expected dollar could hurt emerging economies".

He said that the EU needed to be "cautious" and had to "ensure a spirit of cooperation" with the US, which "remaind our partner, our friend, our ally".

He noted that there was "no doubt" on the Trump administration's "protectionist orientation", however.

He also said that the EU still needed to know the administration's positions on key areas such as banking regulation or cooperation on fiscal, tax and trade standards.

Moscovici added that Brexit "continues to pose a significant downside risk to the UK and to a lesser extent to overall European economy".

The commission admitted that the impact of the Brexit vote on British growth "has yet to be felt" and that "the economy has maintained momentum since the referendum."

But it noted that "private consumption has been supported by a reduction in saving" and warned that "private consumption growth is projected to weaken as growth in real disposable income declines".

As a consequence, the UK economy was expected to grow by 1.5 percent this year but only 1.2 percent next year.

The third major factor of risk this year is the series of elections in the Netherlands, France, Germany, Czech Republic, Bulgaria and most probably Italy.

Moscovici warned against the "absurd and dangerous" ambition from populist parties to leave the euro.

He said that such a move, proposed by France's National Front (FN) and Italy's Five Star Movement, would be a "source of impoverishment", with rising inflation and an "explosion" of interest rates and debt.

As FN leader Marine Le Pen is leading opinion polls ahead of April's presidential election, the French EU commissioner insisted that France leaving the euro would be "a tragedy for the eurozone and a disaster for France".

"As for France's exit from the EU, it would simply be in some way the end of the European project," he added.

https://euobserver.com/economic/136886


OCAM warns against advance of radical Islam in Belgium
Brussels Times

A radical form of Islam is spreading in Belgium, to the detriment of moderate Islam.

This emerges from a new report by the Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (known as OCAM). The Mediahuis group newspapers echo this today (Wednesday).

OCAM warns, in its most recent report, of the influence of Salafism in Belgium and Europe, “An increasing number of mosques and Islamic centres in Belgium are controlled by Wahhabism. This is the Salafist missionary apparatus.”

Wahhabism is a radical current of Sunni Islam promoted by Saudi Arabia. It advocates a return to the original “purity” of Islam.

In Belgium, the Imams from this particular current regularly preach in the mosques, and increasingly claim to be strictly Wahhabis, in particular within Brussels, Antwerp and Mechlin.

Simultaneously, the current is spreading in Europe, via Wahhabi television channels and online media.

OCAM say this is a minority. However the Coordination Unit is putting people on alert. “The moderate Imam in his mosque can do nothing about this media violence.”

The daily publication De Standaard says that the chairman of OCAM, Paul Van Tigchelt, did not wish to respond following the leaking of this report.

Lars Andersen
The Brussels Times

http://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/7481/ocam-warns-against-advance-of-radical-islam-in-belgium
 
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