Iran Update Special Report, July 9, 2026
Key Takeaways
- Iran is threatening the resumption of large-scale conflict by striking civilian vessels and the Gulf states to try to achieve permanent control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s attacks illustrate that Iran views control over the strait as its primary strategic deterrent and that Iran is unlikely to abandon its efforts to control the strait in response to opposition from the Gulf states.
- The United States struck 90 targets across Iran on July 8 to degrade Iran’s ability to attack international shipping. Recent US strikes have had no visible effect on Iran’s ability to threaten shipping, and it is unclear when these strikes would have an effect on Iran’s ability or willingness to threaten shipping.
- Iran also likely calculates that it can use control of the strait as economic leverage to shape US decision-making and deter further US military action. ISW-CTP continues to assess that any arrangement that recognizes Iranian control over the strait would preserve Iran’s ability to close the strait at will to advance its strategic objectives.
- Some Iranian officials have threatened to change Iran’s nuclear doctrine, likely in part to try to deter the United States from conducting further strikes on Iran.
Continue reading HERE
Source: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-july-9-2026/?fbclid=IwY2xjawTGH25leHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEeoWLsWoMH-kXtuwsYuo3aLsbLiYXJabAjNwHxENgzoV48g7tVnuq_EF6frp8_aem_LR9qCDDtYJ4OtAr4BRxY5A