Is massive Hamas attack on Israel the assault Iran warned of? – analysis
Iran’s IRGC head Hossein Salami warned last week that Israel was vulnerable to one large tactical operation because the country is so small.
Burnt vehicles are seen at the scene where a rocket launched from the Gaza Strip hit, in Holon, Israel May 11, 2021. (photo credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)
The massive rocket barrage – involving some 600 rockets from Gaza in a 24-hour period, reaching the crescendo of hundreds of rockets fired around nine in the evening, blanketing central and southern Israel – may be linked to Iran’s warnings about a single, large operation.
Iran’s IRGC head Hossein Salami warned last week that Israel was vulnerable to one large tactical operation because the country is so small. He pointed to the S-200 fired from Syria near Dimona and other threats to Israel as an example of how vulnerable the country is.
It isn’t the first time of course that these groups have launched massive rocket attacks, or the first time they targeted Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. The unprecedented aspect relates in part to the volume of fire, sometimes more than 100 rockets in several minutes, and also the nature of the concentrated attack on Ashkelon.
Several times over the years, Israel came close to an operation in Gaza. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran also know that Israel is in the midst of a political crisis, where the prime minister may face a fifth round of elections, and they have watched closely the al-Aqsa tensions and clashes in Israeli cities such as Lod. This is the prophecy that Iran thinks is being fulfilled.
Hamas is setting the pace – and that pace may be one that is being watched or even guided from Iran. This may be due to the fact that Hezbollah wants to know what it looks like when Israel is faced with a large amount of rocket fire. They will be paying attention to every instance where rockets made it through.
The images coming from Israel, of internal clashes in places like Lod, the political pressure mounting on Israel from abroad, and the method of rocket fire, will be analyzed in Tehran and Beirut and among pro-Iran proxies in Syria and Iraq, and Yemen.
However, it has also shown it can dictate the tempo, a tempo, and a tactical operation that Iran predicted a week ago in a Quds Day message. That message reached Gaza and Islamic Jihad; it now has reached Tel Aviv and Jerusalem through rockets.