BERLIN — On the last Saturday in February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gathered with his top advisers in his vast, glass-walled office and read aloud a speech condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — remarks that would transform his nation’s security and defense policy.

As he queried particular phrases in the draft, his advisers proposed alternatives. Scholz, 63, who has known his nation only at peace, was desperate to avert a third world war, said a senior German official who, like others close to the chancellor, spoke on the condition of anonymity to recount private discussions. Initially, that concern made Scholz reluctant to speak of armaments, above all sending weapons to Ukraine.

But when aides presented the chancellor with the question of arming Ukraine directly or simply releasing German-made weapons purchased by partner nations, a request being weighed the same day, he approved both — assessing that sufficient support existed within his government and party to jettison Germany’s long-standing aversion to exporting weapons into conflict zones.

In the course of the deliberations that day, the chancellor also resolved to make explicit how Germany would develop its arsenal to guard against a widening conflict. The country, whose wars of conquest in the previous century had made the projection of military power verboten, would in effect become the world’s third-largest military spender, not only bolstering NATO deployments but strengthening the Bundeswehr, Germany’s armed forces, with procurements including new armed drones and fighter jets.

“He’s aware of what that means,” said an aide involved in the discussions. “That with growing abilities will also come growing demands and expectations.”

The challenge remained to find the words to announce these policies without alarming the public, recalled Scholz advisers. “We are also doing this for us, for our own security,” the chancellor said in the final version of the speech, which he delivered that Sunday to the German parliament. He declared Russia’s invasion three days earlier, on Feb. 24, a “Zeitenwende,” or “turning of an era.”

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Scholz’s carefully crafted speech signals his approach to taking the reins of government in a crisis — cautious and calculating, constrained by history. The test is whether the same approach can steer his country through a national security transformation and into a more active and confident role on the world stage.

“Scholz sleepwalked into the crisis, seemingly never thinking it would actually happen, but has now brought about Germany’s most significant U-turn since 1989,” said Peter Wittig, a former German ambassador to the United States, referring to the fall of the Berlin Wall. “The chancellor said, ‘Germany needs hard power.’ ”

But decisions made in crisis can be difficult to sustain, Wittig said. Already Berlin is facing intensifying criticism from Ukrainian officials for not doing enough to export arms. And some in Scholz’s party say his security commitments are unrealistic.

In this new era for Germany, marked by the return of land war to Europe, the past casts a long shadow. When Scholz led his Social Democratic Party to victory in last fall’s elections, he inherited the mantle of German chancellors with complex ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Angela Merkel, a fluent Russian speaker raised in Germany’s former communist east, was a frequent interlocutor for Putin, pressing him on issues ranging from migration to human rights. She also steered the Normandy Format talks — among France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia — that helped broker a 2014 cease-fire agreement in the contested Ukrainian region of Donbas.

Scholz, who had been finance minister and vice chancellor in Merkel’s final coalition government, positioned himself as her natural heir. She was among those he consulted in preparing to meet with Putin in February.

Now, Merkel’s legacy is coming under new criticism. The center-right chancellor supported the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, bucking U.S. recommendations and deepening her country’s dependency on Russian fossil fuels. She also favored dialogue with Putin over more forceful measures. She counseled President Barack Obama against sending lethal aid to Ukraine when he sought her advice in 2014 and 2015, according to current and former German diplomats familiar with the conversations.

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At the same time, Merkel “had no illusions about Putin’s ruthlessness,” said a former German diplomat.

That sets her apart from Gerhard Schröder, the chancellor before her, whose refusal to relinquish board seats on Russian energy companies has made him persona non grata in Scholz’s party, which he twice led to victory, in 1998 and 2002. His deference to Putin has also threatened to discredit Germany’s broader policy of Ostpolitik, the normalization of relations with the East, pioneered by the Social Democrats in the 1970s.

Schröder’s access to strongmen in Eastern Europe and Western Asia has at times proved useful to his government. In 2017, he helped persuade Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to release a detained human rights activist, said Ulrich Brandenburg, a former German ambassador to Russia. But the 77-year-old’s trip last month to Moscow yielded no results, according to German officials, who said he is acting independently. In a speech last month, Schröder spoke of “many mistakes on both sides.”

The legacy of his predecessors is hard for Scholz to escape, said Pavlo Klimkin, a former Ukrainian foreign minister and ambassador to Germany. “Under moral and political pressure, Scholz is clearly trying to exit this friendly mentality to Russia,” Klimkin said.

What you need to know about Olaf Scholz

The chancellor’s mentality already differed from that of his predecessors, his allies say.
Scholz, a onetime vice president of the International Union of Socialist Youth who criticized the “aggressive-imperialist NATO,” increased Germany’s defense budget when he served as finance minister in Merkel’s cabinet. In 2018, his role in selecting a new foreign minister caused blowback in his center-left party when his pick took a tough line on Russia, accusing the Kremlin of defining itself in opposition to the West. Scholz and others faced internal recriminations, associates said, for advocating what one person called a “Europe First” agenda.

Some within Scholz’s party are still skeptical of such an agenda. Ralf Stegner, a Social Democratic lawmaker and member of the foreign affairs committee, said security in Europe is possible only “with Russia, not against Russia.”

Philipp Türmer, deputy chairman of the Social Democratic Party’s youth organization, said a better-equipped military is a necessity. But “abstract aims of military expansion,” including the NATO commitment of spending 2 percent of economic output on defense, “don’t make sense,” said Türmer, who holds the same position at the youth organization, called Jusos, that Scholz once did.

In the short term, “the party will remain united around Scholz and this goal,” said Nils Schmid, a lawmaker and foreign policy spokesman for Scholz’s Social Democrats in parliament. Then, he said, the chancellor will have to “spell out exactly which projects and which purchases are needed.”

The path is uncharted in a country without a national security council or a well-supplied military. Germany’s army chief took to LinkedIn in the early hours of Russia’s invasion to warn that the country’s armed forces were “more or less powerless.”

Power is what Scholz decided his country needed, after diplomacy failed to bring Putin back from the brink.

During his February visit to Moscow, the chancellor accepted sparkling wine from his Russian counterpart. But when Scholz asked the Russian president, “Mr. Putin, can you assure me that once I leave Moscow, that’s not the moment your fighter jets start to invade Ukraine?” Putin gave no answer, according to someone briefed on the conversation.

Scholz says response to Russia will be ‘united and decisive’ if Ukraine is invaded

A week before Russia’s invasion, when the leader of an allied nation asked Scholz on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference what he thought the probability was that Putin would give the order to attack, on a scale from 1 to 10, the chancellor refused to make a prediction, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Scholz also demurred when pressed to counter early Russian hostilities, most notably resisting calls to halt Nord Stream 2 — before reversing course and preventing certification of the controversial project.

Scholz has told associates since his Feb. 27 speech that German power means not only national defense but also economic prosperity and the cultural factors that make Germany an attractive place to live.

A majority of the public backs sending arms to Ukraine, according to recent polling, a reversal from earlier this year during Russia’s military buildup, when surveys showed that most Germans still opposed weapons deliveries.

But public confidence is at a low ebb. Only 19 percent of Germans are optimistic about the near future, the lowest share since 1949, according to a March poll by the Allensbach Institute. “The population is in shock,” wrote the institute’s managing director.

Scholz’s calls with Putin since the invasion have been carefully coordinated with European allies, the United States and Ukraine. “It is the Ukrainians that need to call the shots,” said the senior German official, so no one will “betray them, even accidentally.”

Ukrainian assessments of German leadership are already laced with a sense of betrayal, especially after evidence of civilian massacres emerged from Bucha. Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, said last weekend that Scholz “finally has to take on this leadership role” and advance tougher sanctions.

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Norbert Röttgen, a lawmaker from Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union, accused Scholz of pursuing a “policy of deliberate halfheartedness.” Scenes from Bucha demand the chancellor make good on his language about a new era, Röttgen said.

“A ‘Zeitenwende’ requires much more than just a defense fund,” said the lawmaker, a former chairman of the foreign affairs committee. “The government has to deliver on its promise that everything fundamentally has changed.”

In a Wednesday appearance before lawmakers, Scholz defended his government’s arms shipments, saying Germany was sending everything it could. He stressed that shipments were being coordinated with NATO, in response to questions about a Ukrainian request for 100 German infantry vehicles. That request was relayed to Scholz and his team by Wladimir Klitschko, the Ukrainian celebrity and former professional boxer, during a visit to Berlin last week, according to a person with knowledge of the meeting. A Ukrainian official declined to comment.

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Despite the decision to send arms into a conflict zone, said a senior German diplomat, “our history doesn’t go away. You will see a careful approach in foreign policy.” The foremost task, according to the diplomat, is to “hold Europe together.”

And that falls to Scholz. “He is the center of power, even in a parliamentary system,” the diplomat said.

Parts of the German media doubt he has what it takes. The chancellor, wrote a columnist in the Munich-based Süddeutsche Zeitung, embodies his country’s problems: “weak in leadership, self-centered and helpless.”

That assessment, say Scholz’s allies, is contradicted by his success in overturning decades of foreign policy consensus in a single weekend, and bringing his three-party coalition government along with him. “He’s proactive and pushy,” said Schmid, the lawmaker and foreign policy spokesman. “He wants to see things implemented.”

At 5 feet and 7 inches, Scholz is not an imposing presence. When he was mayor of Hamburg, from 2011 to 2018, he used to row before cabinet meetings on Alster Lake. Now, he uses an indoor water rower — or else runs two times a week. Despite his serious manner, he has a mischievous, high-pitched laugh, say associates, and aides address him with the informal pronoun “du,” instead of the professional “Sie.”

French President Emmanuel Macron, a longtime advocate of greater European military cooperation, has staked out a more high-profile role rallying the continent behind the Ukrainian cause. Biden went to Warsaw to proclaim a new “battle for democracy.” Scholz is less comfortable standing at a lectern than he is sitting at a conference table. “He’s someone who knows his briefing book,” said the senior German diplomat.

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That attitude also shapes Scholz’s engagement with fellow leaders. He feels especially aligned with Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, said the senior German official, who added, “Olaf Scholz is not the guy who bonds in a way that they’re best buddies and drinking, but I think they all click politically.”

Scholz’s advisers have benefited from strong ties with Biden’s team, said senior officials in Berlin.

Scholz’s closest confidant, Wolfgang Schmidt, the chancellery chief of staff who has the rank of a cabinet minister, speaks regularly to William J. Burns, the CIA director, who was in Berlin last month. Scholz’s chief economic adviser, Jörg Kukies, a former Goldman Sachs banker, works with Daleep Singh, a deputy national security adviser handling sanctions. And foreign policy adviser Jens Plötner consults with Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser.

The chancellor’s advisers hope Biden’s leadership role in responding to Russian aggression might help him win over Trump supporters who crave American strength. And they’re even inclined to help. One adviser mused about Scholz and Macron, who is up for reelection this month, traveling to the United States and reaching out to American voters.

“They could go to where the F-35 is produced,” said the adviser, referring to the combat aircraft, which is made in Fort Worth and which Germany has promised to buy. “And they could say, ‘That’s your leader who made this happen.’ ”

Vanessa Guinan-Bank contributed to this report.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/08/olaf-scholz-germany-russia-ukraine/

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Senior German officials were already scheduled to get together with Russian counterparts in January in a bid to ease geopolitical tensions amid rising alarm that the Kremlin is planning a further military incursion into Ukraine.

According to a report Monday by Germany’s Bild newspaper, foreign policy adviser Jens Plotner has been discussing with the Kremlin a meeting between the German leader and Putin for more than two weeks. The paper, which has a reputation of breaking domestic German political stories well ahead of media rivals, reported that Scholz is seeking “a new start” in relations with Moscow and wants to focus on energy politics and Ukraine.

US-Russia talks

Senior U.S. and Russian officials are to meet in Geneva for talks set for January 9 and 10 to discuss Russia’s military build-up on its border with Ukraine, where it has deployed around 100,000 troops, according to Western and Ukrainian intelligence officials.

Western leaders and officials have already rejected as nonstarters Russian demands, including a halt to further NATO enlargement and a rollback of any alliance military presence in the former Soviet satellite states of Central Europe.

The Geneva talks, which are to be led on the American side by senior State Department officials, are slated to be followed by Russia-NATO council talks and a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.

Western leaders have warned of severe consequences if the Kremlin decides to mount another attack on Ukraine in a repeat of 2014, when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula and used armed proxies to seize a large part of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, bordering Russia.

U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters Friday that he advised Putin when they spoke by phone a day earlier that the upcoming talks could only work if the Russian leader “de-escalated, not escalated, the situation” going forward. Biden said he also sought to make plain to Russia’s leader in his second conversation in a month with Putin that U.S. and European allies are ready to punish Russia with tough economic sanctions.

“I made it clear to President Putin that if he makes any more moves into Ukraine, we will have severe sanctions,” Biden said. “We will increase our presence in Europe with NATO allies.”

Kremlin officials, though, have doubled down on warnings to the West about making a “colossal mistake” that could have enormous ramifications for an already fraught U.S.-Russian relationship.

Unease among some European nations

But despite the tough talk from Washington, there is unease among smaller European nations who fear bigger Western powers may try to cut a deal with Moscow without their buy-in.

Finnish President Sauli Niinistö is demanding that all European nations, formal Western alliance members or not, be included in the security negotiations between Russia, the United States and NATO.

Niinistö has reiterated his country’s right to join NATO if it wants, a flat rejection of the Russian demand that NATO admits no new members.

“Finland’s room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide,” Niinistö said in a strong New Year’s address.

He said Russia’s ultimatums “are in conflict with the European security order,” and he wants a significant role for the European Union in any negotiations to help express the security needs and views of smaller nations.

“In this situation, Europe cannot just listen in,” Niinistö said. “The sovereignty of several member states, also Sweden and Finland, has been challenged from outside the union. This makes the EU an involved party. The EU must not settle merely with the role of a technical coordinator of sanctions.”

Germany’s concerns

Scholz’s New Year’s address to Germans was milder, and while warning of a punishing Western response to any further Russian aggression toward Ukraine, he emphasized the importance of “constructive dialogue” with Russia.

The German chancellor has come under pressure from allies and members of his coalition government, including Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, leader of the country’s Green Party, to withhold any formal approval for Russian natural gas to be transported through the just-completed Nord Stream 2, an undersea pipeline linking Russia and Germany.

Central and eastern European countries criticized former Chancellor Angela Merkel for her support of the Nord Stream 2 project. They say the pipeline risks deepening European dependence on Russian gas. Last month, Poland’s prime minister publicly called on Scholz to oppose the startup of Nord Stream 2, warning that the pipeline could be used as a coercive economic weapon by Russia.

Aside from what tactics to employ, splits persist also among Western powers over assessments of Putin’s intentions. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi has downplayed the risk of Russian military action, saying the Kremlin wants to explore diplomacy and is not preparing “for action.”

Some Italian officials say they fear talk of impending war could take on a life of its own, impacting and shaping the behavior of Russia and the United States. They also point to the draft security treaties Russia presented to the U.S. last week as indicating a willingness for further talks.

U.S. officials have been seeking to reassure Central European governments that their views will be fully taken into account. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke Monday with the Bucharest Nine group of eastern flank NATO allies, according to Ned Price, State Department spokesperson.

Price said in a statement: “The Secretary and Foreign Ministers discussed Russia’s destabilizing military buildup along Ukraine’s border; the need for a united, ready, and resolute NATO stance for the collective defense of Allies; and transatlantic cooperation on issues of shared concern. The Secretary stressed the U.S. commitment to continued close consultation and coordination with all of our Transatlantic Allies and partners as we work toward de-escalation through deterrence, defense, and dialogue.”

The call participants included the foreign ministers of Poland, Bulgaria and Hungary.

On Monday, former NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen called on Western powers to reject Russian security demands, saying the proposals from Putin aren’t serious.

Rasmussen, who served as secretary general from 2009 to 2014 and is a former Danish prime minister, said the Russian president had openly told him that he wanted to dismantle the Western security alliance. Writing for the Politico.eu news site, he said agreeing to “negotiate down the barrel of a gun” would only help Putin.

“When I met Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time as NATO secretary general, he opened our meeting by telling me he wanted to disband NATO. If NATO allies engage with Russia’s most recent proposals … they will be directly helping him move a step closer to achieving his goal,” he added.

Putin and Kremlin officials say they have no plan to invade Ukraine, but they have also warned they will take retaliatory steps, if their conditions aren’t met.

Source: https://www.voanews.com/a/smaller-european-nations-uneasy-as-germany-scholz-plans-to-meet-putin/6379981.html

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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock met in Washington on Wednesday to discuss various issues between the two countries. One critical issue was that of the increase of Russian troops along the border of its former Soviet neighbor Ukraine. The build-up is said to be caused by Ukraine’s attempts to join NATO, which the U.S. and Germany are both members of. The two representatives agreed that this military presence can be dangerous.

“Both Germany and the United States see Russia’s actions toward Ukraine as an immediate and urgent challenge to peace and stability in Europe,” said Blinken. “We condemn Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s borders, as well as Russia’s increasingly harsh rhetoric as it continues to push the false narrative that Ukraine seeks to provoke them. That’s a little bit like the fox saying it had no choice but to attack the henhouse because somehow the hens presented a threat.”

Without using analogies like her American counterpart, Baerbock agreed that Russia’s actions are a form of intimidation.

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“We jointly reiterated that Russian actions and activities come with a clear price tag,” she explained, “and a renewed violation of Ukrainian sovereignty by Russia would have severe consequences.”

The Blinken-Baerbock meeting followed a telephone call last week between President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a conversation Sunday between Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and a group discussion Tuesday among Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan and his counterparts from the five Nordic nations.

It also preceded a flurry of meetings involving NATO foreign ministers, senior U.S. and Russian officials, the NATO-Russia Council and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe set for next week.

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“The real question is whether Russia is serious about diplomacy, serious about de-escalation,” Blinken said. “Let’s see where this goes over the next weeks.”

Western officials have hinted at any number of economically crippling sanctions that could be imposed should Russia act. Those include near-total cutoff from the international financial system and steps toward greater NATO integration with non-allied European nations.

But, there have been very few specifics and Blinken again declined to discuss them. “I’m not going to telegraph them publicly, but I can tell you with great confidence that a tremendous amount of work has been done already. There is very strong coordination and collaboration and very strong agreement on measures that would be taken in the event of renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.”

As the Biden administration moves to build international consensus around a set of possible punitive measures, Germany is clearly the linchpin. Securing the support of Europe’s biggest economy will be key to both messaging and implementation of whatever is decided.

Baerbock is the top diplomat in the first German government in 16 years not headed by Angela Merkel. She has struck a tougher tone on Russia than her predecessor. But Germany has adopted a less confrontational stance toward Russia compared with many other European nations.

Germany’s business ties with Russia could provide leverage, but they could also prove a hindrance for forging a united front toward Moscow. Despite strong criticism from the U.S., the center-left government of new Chancellor Olaf Scholz hasn’t shown itself willing to block the start of natural gas deliveries through a newly built pipeline linking Russia and Germany—a move that would hurt both countries.

Under Merkel, Germany persuaded the Biden administration last year not to impose sanctions on the company building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which many believe will leave Europe beholden to Russia for energy and Ukraine more vulnerable.

Blinken noted that the pipeline, while completed, has yet to go into operation and said gas flows through it would be unlikely if Russia invades Ukraine.

“If Russia renews its aggression toward Ukraine, it would certainly be difficult to see gas flowing through it in the future,” he said. This actually gives the EU leverage over Russia, he said, rather than the other way around.

Baerbock sidestepped the question of whether the pipeline would be operationalized in the event of a Russian intervention. However, she said the new German government would abide by an agreement signed last summer with Washington that says Russia will not be allowed to use energy as a political weapon against Europe.

“We agreed on this, together with our European partners, that we would take effective measures together with our European partners, should Russia use energy as a weapon or should it continue its aggressive acts against Ukraine,” Baerbock said.

Blinken did not directly address her response but said the U.S. would press ahead with joint measures on the pipeline if necessary.

“We will continue to work in a way that I hope can be effective in dealing with energy issues and challenges, including those posed in our judgment by Nord Stream 2, and also in a way that preserves what is so vital, and that is strong trans-Atlantic solidarity. That is the most effective response and most effective tool that we have in countering Russian aggression,” he said.

Nord Stream 2 is a topic of major concern in Washington, and Congress is expected to take up two bills related to it and other Russia sanctions next week, just as the meetings in Europe are happening. A GOP bill would automatically impose Nord Stream sanctions, while a Democratic version would impose a wider range of penalties on Russia should it invade Ukraine.

Both Democratic and Republican lawmakers in Washington have blamed Nord Stream 2 for increasing Russia’s leverage over Germany and limiting what Berlin would be willing to do in response to a new invasion. Germany, like much of the European Union, is heavily reliant on Russian natural gas.

Blinken said the U.S. has delivered weapons to Ukraine and would continue to do so in the event of a further Russian military assault on the country.

Echoing concerns by some in Germany that this could stoke military tensions with Russia, Baerbock said “we have a different position on arms supply to Ukraine,” but noted that Berlin has provided a military hospital to the Ukrainian army and support in treating wounded soldiers.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/us-germany-say-russia-military-buildup-ukraine-poses-immediate-urgent-challenge-1666076

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2. World economy shows signs of recovery
2021 global economic growth is estimated to be 5-6%, compared with a contraction of 4.4% in 2020. Rapid vaccination and huge economic stimulus packages in “economic locomotives” like the US, Europe and China, provided the driving force for the global recovery. But after sustaining damages of 3.3 trillion USD, tens of millions of jobs lost, and global supply chains disrupted, what the world economy will look like in 2022 still depends heavily on COVID-19 pandemic developments.

3. COP26 (United Nations Conference on Climate Change)
On November 13, 197 countries attending the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26) ratified the Glasgow Climate Pact. 100 countries also pledged to end deforestation and cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030. The world’s two largest emitters, the US and China, issued a joint statement, pledging to cooperate in building a long-term strategy to combat climate change. The results of the Conference offered hope that the world can still prevent the worst effects of climate change.

4. US withdraws troops from Afghanistan after 20 years of war, Taliban returns to power
On August 30, the last US troops left Afghanistan, ending the longest war in US history. During 20 years of war, 3,500 American and allied troops and tens of thousands of Afghan soldiers and civilians were killed in Afghanistan. On August 15, the Taliban took control of the capital Kabul after having taken control of most of the rest of Afghanistan, making the country’s future uncertain and worrisome. The risk of Afghanistan exporting terrorism, conflict, and violence could jeopardize the security of the entire world.

5. US-China strategic competition grows fiercer, but not yet out of control
Since taking office as the 46th President of the United States on January 20, Joe Biden has worked hard to build a new coalition to deal with China, as the US-China strategic competition has become an all-out confrontation. The US has demanded that China make concessions on Chinese Taipei, the East Sea, the East China Sea, democracy, human rights, and other issues. Rather than making any concessions, China has redoubled its effort to overtake the US as the world’s strongest economy. Although they reached no compromise, both the US and China have signaled a readiness for dialogue to keep their confrontations from spiraling out of control.

6. AUKUS profoundly changes Indo-Pacific landscape
The Tripartite Security Agreement reached by Australia, the UK and the US (AUKUS) on September 15 marked a new step in the US’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific, and created a major change in the region’s strategic balance. The AUKUS mechanism tightened the relationship between the US, UK and Australia, while worsening the US-China relations, and causing rifts between the US and its European allies. With the EU and the US later announcing their separate Indo-Pacific strategies, the birth of AUKUS Alliance marks a gathering of forces and the Indo-Pacific’s growing geopolitical importance.

7. End of Merkel’s rule – a void and future expectations for Germany and Europe
Angela Merkel’s rule came to an end when Olaf Schozl was confirmed as Chancellor by the German Bundestag on December 8. During her 16 years in office, Chancellor Merkel led Germany and the EU through major crises, including the 2008 financial crisis, the 2015 migration crisis, the 2010 public debt crisis, and Brexit, made Germany a “European locomotive” and accelerated the unification of Europe. Merkel’s departure from politics raises concerns about a power vacuum in Germany and the EU, but also rekindles hopes for winds of change in the near future.

8. Political upheaval in Myanmar, Sudan, Guinea
On February 1, the National Alliance for Democracy underpinning the civilian government of Myanmar, was stripped of its power and power was transferred to the military. In Africa, Sudan was plunged into a political crisis after the military dissolved the Sudanese power-sharing government and declared a state of emergency on October 25. In 2021, Africa also witnessed coups in Mali and Guinea. These worrisome political developments reflected a trend of political and social instability in many countries.

9. Russian-Western relations on the brink of breakdown
Russia-Ukraine relations suddenly worsened with the two sides increasing military buildups near the border between Russia and Ukraine. Between problems in the Baltic Sea and Black Sea area and a migration crisis on the Poland-Belarus border, the risk of conflict between the West and Russia reached its highest level since the Cold War. On December 17, Russia published the draft of the eight-point treaty with the West aimed at easing tensions in Europe and defusing the Ukraine crisis. If a new agreement is not reached soon, Russia-Western relations could reach a dangerous tipping point.

10. First commercial space flight ushers in new era of space travel
On the evening of September 15, the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) successfully launched the world’s first private spacecraft into Earth orbit. The event marked the ambitious start of a new space tourism industry. Following SpaceX, companies Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin also launched private flights carrying passengers into space.

Source: https://vovworld.vn/en-US/current-affairs/top-10-world-events-of-2021-1061358.vov

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The report was carried in Russia’s Tass News. “In that telegram he expressed great satisfaction with the development of Chinese-Russian relations,” the report says.

It is one example of how Moscow and Beijing are increasingly coordinating their policies and forming an alliance. The goal is to create a multi-polar world and remove the vestiges of US hegemony that have existed since the 1990s.

With the US exit from Afghanistan, Russia is also saying it could recognize the Taliban, according to Sergei Lavrov.

The “decision to recognize the Taliban government depends on their fulfillment of promises,” Lavrov says. This matters because China and Russia could coordinate on Iran and also on Afghan issues.

“I am deeply satisfied with the results of the development of relations between China and Russia,” the website of the Chinese Foreign Ministry quoted Xi as saying this week. “In 2022, our countries will celebrate the Chinese-Russian Year of Sports and we will write a new page in the history of friendship between the two countries, passed down from generation to generation,” the Chinese leader said, according to Tass.

Putin will attend the China Winter Olympic Games, the report says. “I am sincerely ready to maintain close contacts with you in various formats,” the Chinese leader noted.

The report says that Russia and China cooperated very well in 2021. “Predictability and stability are the most crucial factors in world affairs, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated this several times,” Tass News also noted.

In an annual wrap of developments in Russia and of Putin’s policies, the Russian media has claimed that “the United States kept threatening Russia with sanctions. An energy crisis engulfed Europe and Asia. The Taliban, outlawed in Russia, seized power in Afghanistan, while the situation in and around Ukraine went from bad to worse. The southern Caucasus and other hot spots across the globe saw hostilities flare up now and then. And the already well familiar backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic completed the landscape.”

Russian media called former US President Donald Trump a “heavyweight” and also eulogized former German chancellor Angela Merkel’s long time in office, which recently came to an end.

“Putin declared that Russia needed firm guarantees to be sure NATO would not proceed with its eastward expansion,” the report said. Meanwhile, Russia-Ukraine tensions continue. The report says that Moscow views NATO as conducting a “creeping invasion” of Ukraine. “This is happening on our doorstep,” Putin said. “They should realize that we have nowhere further to retreat.”

Moscow also said that Merkel had played a key role in relations with Russia and praised the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. “The Russian president earlier said Merkel and he shared a businesslike relationship.” Russia hopes the pipeline will increase its influence in Europe and erode US influence.

Tensions in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region and the border districts of Armenia’s Syunik Province flared up again in November. Several armed clashes causing casualties took place,” the report says. Russia has hosted Armenian and Azeri leaders to sort things out.

“Last summer, the Russian president intensified contacts with foreign counterparts, primarily from Central Asian members of the CIS, in the light of the situation in Afghanistan, where the Taliban came to power without waiting for the completion of the US troop pullout,” the report notes.

“In 2021, Russia and south and east Asian powers pushed ahead with bilateral cooperation. At the beginning of December, Putin paid a visit to India. It was his second foreign visit for the entire year,” it says.

The report also discusses close ties with China. “By and large, the situation on the world stage during the outgoing year often gave Putin a chance to cite Chinese wisdom. ‘One proverb, as you may know, says, “God forbid living in a time of change.” However, we are there already, whether we like it or not, and these changes are becoming deeper and more fundamental,’ Putin said while speaking at a meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club think tank in October.”

The report appears to indicate that Russia sees the recent global crisis as an opportunity. It will use this to work more closely with China, and Beijing also looks to exploit the opportunity.

Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-china-ties-will-be-the-big-story-of-2022-analysis/ar-AASl50l

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Scholz, who succeeded Angela Merkel as chancellor in early December, appealed to all Germans to get vaccinated amid a massive fifth wave of infections in the country driven by the Omicron coronavirus variant.

“What matters now is speed. We have to be faster than the virus,” Scholz said, according to a transcript of his speech distributed in advance.

“Together let’s do everything – and I really mean everything – so that we can finally defeat coronavirus in the new year.”

Scholz asked for understanding regarding the significantly tightened restrictions that have just come into force in Germany, including the limits on private gatherings. The new coronavirus variant spreads even more easily than previous ones, he said.

“Please take these restrictions very seriously. For your protection, for the protection of your families. For the protection of all of us.”

The chancellor called on critics of the state’s measures, some of whom have resorted to violence in recent weeks, to be respectful of other views.

There will always be differences of opinion, Scholz said, “but a strong community can withstand contradictions if we listen to each other and show respect for each other.”

Source: https://www.dpa-international.com/topic/german-chancellor-calls-society-come-together-beat-covid-urn%3Anewsml%3Adpa.com%3A20090101%3A211231-99-548905

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The post Germany swears in new Chancellor Olaf Scholz first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Germany’s new leader has pledged continuity with his predecessor Angela Merkel, who stepped down Wednesday after 16 years in power.

Scholz took power with a disparate new coalition of ecologist Greens and business-friendly Free Democrats, which has agreed to strengthen Europe’s “strategic sovereignty”.

In keeping with tradition, his first official trip will take him to France where he will meet President Emmanuel Macron.

He will continue on to Brussels for meetings with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president Charles Michel ahead of a bloc summit next week.

The European response to the pandemic and the climate crisis, growing calls for a diplomatic boycott of the Olympics in China and the Russian troop build-up on Ukraine’s border are set to dominate discussions.

Scholz on Thursday already warned Moscow of “consequences” for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a Russian project to deliver natural gas to Germany and a major source of friction with many partners.

As Western powers threaten punishing new sanctions against Moscow, the project could soon play a central role.

“With Nord Stream 2, Germany has the big geopolitical weapon in its hand without ever having sought it,” said analyst Ulrich Speck of the German Marshall Fund.

Laying the groundwork for the visit, new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Greens said in Paris Thursday that Berlin would set its stance on Russia and China in close consultation with European allies.

She praised French plans to reform carbon taxation when Paris assumes the EU presidency in January, while hailing the 2015 Paris climate accord as a “stellar moment in international diplomacy”.

Baerbock stressed her ministry would now “help take the lead” for Berlin on future multilateral climate initiatives, as she underlined the centrality of the rule of law and human rights in the EU ahead of a stop in Poland Friday.

However, she acknowledged that Germany, which will close all of its atomic power plants by next year for safety reasons, did not see eye-to-eye with France in its bid to name nuclear as a suitable energy source to meet Europe’s net-zero climate goal.

Scholz, a centrist Social Democrat, is a known entity, having served as Merkel’s finance minister and vice chancellor.

Although he long backed Germany’s trademark budget austerity goals, he threw his weight behind massive government spending to help Europe cope with the pandemic — going further than Merkel.

“Europe senses that Scholz is more likely to continue the Merkel course on the European Stability and Growth Pact” and its strict debt rules, said Anne Gellinek of public broadcaster ZDF.

Scholz is expected to face renewed calls for Germany to match its economic weight with more responsibility in global security affairs.

The new coalition pact makes no mention of the pledge for all NATO member states to commit two percent of their GDP to defence by 2024.

Instead, it will commit “in the long run” three percent of spending to the military, diplomacy and development aid, a clause already attacked by Merkel’s conservatives, now in opposition, as a “sham”.

French Foreign Minister Yves Le Drian asked Thursday for stronger German support in foreign missions, including operations against jihadist groups in the Sahel region, saying Berlin had “an important role to play”.

Political scientist Andrea Roemmele of the Hertie School of Governance expects closer cooperation with Paris on security policy under Scholz.

But with the French presidential elections looming next year, Berlin will likely “take a wait-and-see stance” on projects, particularly given the threat of a strong showing for the far right.

The Barron’s news department was not involved in the creation of the content above. This story was produced by AFP. For more information go to AFP.com.

Source: https://www.barrons.com/news/new-german-chancellor-scholz-makes-european-debut-01639102209?refsec=afp-news

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