Illustration by Derek Zheng

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• Global trade is marching on with or without the US.
• Next year, the world’s biggest free trade deal could be signed.
• The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) would be made up of 15 countries.
• The US and India are not currently part of the deal, but China, Japan and other big Asian economies are. 
• If India joins, the trade pact would encompass 30% of the global economy.
• View Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

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Aircraft of the People’s Liberation Army continued to enter Taiwan’s declared air defense identification throughout the weekend, even as the self-ruling island celebrated “National Day”—an occasion commemorating the end of the Qing Dynasty and the establishment of the Republic of China, which Taiwan officially calls itself.

But as the rival People’s Republic of China made its presence known, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen delivered a military message as well.

“As commander-in-chief,” Tsai said, “I always have the future of our military and our military of the future in my heart.”

The Taiwanese leader vowed to buy and build more powerful military equipment during Saturday’s festivities.

“We will continue to modernize defensive combat capabilities and accelerate the upgrading of our asymmetrical capabilities to deal with military expansion and provocation from the other side of the Taiwan Strait,” Tsai said. “As we procure military hardware, we still remain dedicated to promoting our national self-defense capabilities.”

She also appealed for cross-strait stability and dialogue, but her words appeared lost on Beijing, where President Xi Jinping has vowed to assert control over Taiwan with military action if a peaceful path did not pan out.

Taiwan’s military reported on Sunday that Chinese Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft continued a daily streak of sorties along the disputed strait that represents the de facto divide between the mainland People’s Republic of China, led by the Chinese Communist Party, and Taiwan, a democracy that officially calls itself the Republic of China.

With Chinese media outlets such as the Communist Party-run Global Times hyping up the chances of all-out war, Andrew Yang, spokesperson of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New York, affirmed that Taiwan would double down on both indigenous and acquired military strength to deter an ever-looming Chinese incursion.

“Taiwan will continue to increase investments in its defense commensurate with the security challenges it faces,” Yang told Newsweek. “Taiwan will also seek security cooperation with the United States to build its defense systems that are cost-effective but lethal enough to make any invasions painful.”

Two U.S.-made F-16V fighter aircraft release flares after dropping bombs during the annual Han Kuang military drills in Taichung on July 16. The five-day “Han Kuang” (Han Glory) military drills starting on July 14 aimed to test how the armed forces would repel an invasion from China, which has vowed to bring Taiwan back into the fold—by force if necessary. SAM YEH/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The case of Taiwan’s sovereignty is among the most serious challenges to U.S.-China relations, which have approached historic lows during the past year.

For more than four decades, the U.S. has adhered to the “One China” policy that acknowledges Beijing’s claims to Taiwan. But it has also maintained informal diplomatic and defense ties with Taipei, whose international links have dwindled to 14 nations since losing a 1949 civil war. China has refused relations with any country recognizing Taiwan, prompting much of the international community to shift relations as China opened up economically to the West over the past half a century.

The Trump administration has expanded upon the unofficial U.S. relationship with Taiwan, which has become a bone of contention as the two powers increasingly compete economically and geopolitically.

Last month’s annual Pentagon report on Chinese military power noted that “China continues to view the Taiwan issue as the most important and sensitive issue between the United States and China.”

Chinese forces have staged large displays of military might in protest to recent visits by senior U.S. officials to the island. One such series of exercises last month was rejected as “aggressive and destabilizing” in remarks sent to Newsweek by Pentagon spokesperson John Supple.

As Chinese fury toward the U.S. Taiwan policy mounts, some observers have warned the likelihood of a conflict has grown.

“The situation is escalating, mostly because of power competition and maritime disputes,” the Beijing-based South China Sea Probing Initiative told Newsweek in a statement.

The think tank deemed “unlikely” a possible military conflict between China and nearby members of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that challenge some of Beijing’s territorial claims, but said “the risk of China-U.S. conflict is rising.”

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo downplayed this scenario in an interview Friday with radio host Hugh Hewitt. At the same time, he emphasized that the Trump administration would continue to work with Taiwan against China’s wishes.

“These are the obligations that the United States should undertake and is undertaking,” Pompeo said. “We recognize that this is a point of conflict with the Chinese Communist Party. We don’t want that. We want peace. But we are going to make sure that we live up to all of the obligations we have to Taiwan.”

Regional tensions remain high as the U.S. stepped up military activities near Taiwan and across the Asia-Pacific, including in the nearby East and South China Seas, where the Pentagon has challenged sweeping Chinese maritime claims.

A Chinese Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft of the People’s Liberation Army is seen in this image shared October 11 by the Taiwan National Defense Ministry. Taiwan’s armed forces said radio warnings were issued and missile systems put on alert as the aircraft entered the island’s declared air defense identification zone. MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE REPUBLIC OF CHINA

After the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS John McCain sailed near the Paracel Islands, which are controlled by China but also claimed by ASEAN member Vietnam, Chinese Southern Military Command spokesperson Senior Colonel Zhang Nandong called Friday on the U.S. to “immediately stop such kind of provocative actions, strictly manage and control its maritime and air military operations so as not to cause any eventuality.”

The U.S. has sought to court regional countries to pressure China as a part of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” plan. Also on board are fellow Quadrilateral Security Dialogue members Australia, India, and Japan, whose representatives met last week with Pompeo in Tokyo.

The top U.S. diplomat rallied the three countries against the Chinese Communist Party by asserting that it “is more critical now than ever that we collaborate to protect our people and partners from the CCP’s exploitation, corruption, and coercion.”

China’s embassy in Washington rejected Pompeo’s remarks in a reaction sent to Newsweek.

“China is committed to the path of peaceful development and firmly safeguards its sovereignty, security and development interests,” an embassy spokesperson said.

“At the same time, it is committed to resolving differences with other countries through dialogue and consultation,” the spokesperson added. “This is what we say and also what we do. We do not accept reckless smearing and groundless accusations against China.”

A map shows a selected series of China’s territorial disputes in the region as of January 1.U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-wants-strong-us-defense-make-invasion-painful-china-conflict-fears-grow-1538404

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More than a dozen Pacific nations will convene in the capital of Papua New Guinea next week, where Vice President Pence will lay out the next phase of the Trump administration’s ever evolving Asia strategy. His task is to convince the countries of Southeast Asia that the United States and its allies can offer them better options than capitulation to Chinese economic regional dominance.

With the midterm elections behind it, the Trump administration is turning to foreign policy in a major way. President Trump will visit Paris later this week and Argentina for the Group of 20 summit at the end of the month. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is trying to arrange a second summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, while Pence, who rolled out the new U.S. approach to China last month, is headed to Asia for a week-long tour that will culminate in a major speech on the administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy at a meeting of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders on a ship off the coast of Port Moresby.

Pence’s whirlwind Asia tour — his third since taking office — will also take him to Japan, Singapore and Australia, representing the United States at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit and the East Asia Summit. These three conferences comprise the most important diplomatic gatherings of Asian leaders each year. Pence will also meet with the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia, Malaysia and New Zealand along the way.

His trip comes at a crucial juncture in the U.S. relationship with countries in Southeast Asia and the Trump administration’s strategy on China.

“He’s going to the region with an affirmative message to talk about what we and our partners are doing across the region to reinforce the idea of a free and open Indo-Pacific,” a senior administration official told me.

The idea is to put meat on the bone of the Asia strategy Trump unveiled at last year’s APEC meeting in Vietnam. Pence is not going to the region to criticize the Chinese government directly, as he did in his recent speech. The plan is to argue that the U.S. vision for the region is better for those countries economically and politically — and that the U.S. commitment there is real.

Whether the countries of Southeast Asia believe the Trump administration has the capability or focus to put forth a real alternative to China’s comprehensive regional expansion is another question. Beijing has been flooding Southeast Asia with billions of dollars in infrastructure projects and other investments as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. So far, the United States’ counterproposals have been light on actual resources.

Officials said the vice president is preparing announcements that will add more substance to the U.S. argument that private investment by American companies — along with U.S. government support for governance and technological infrastructure development — is healthier than China’s often predatory lending schemes.

“One Belt, One Road is a one-way street,” the senior administration official said. “It is a political and geostrategic ploy by the Chinese government to insinuate themselves into the politics of countries and advance military basing options under the guise and rubric of development assistance.”

There’s good reason to think Southeast Asian nations are open to the U.S. pitch. The new governments in Malaysia and the Maldives are struggling to undo the huge and hugely corrupt infrastructure deals their predecessors struck with Beijing. Chinese projects in Pakistan and Sri Lanka have shown that taking massive loans on unfair terms can have grim consequences for a country’s financial and territorial sovereignty.

Southeast Asian nations don’t want to be forced to choose between China and the United States, and many are still sore about Trump exiting the Trans-Pacific Partnership. When it comes to Asia, Trump has been more focused on tariffs than making deals. But on infrastructure and investment, the United States has more to offer since Congress passed the Build Act, which could provide up to $60 billion for private development financing.

Offering real competition to Beijing’s massive investment scheme is not just about economics, especially not for the Chinese government. The Chinese Communist Party uses these programs to cultivate and corrupt regional elites, which then enables them to neuter democratic institutions and roll back liberal norms.

“China’s willingness to invest heavily in developing countries irrespective of good governance bolsters the fortunes of illiberal leaders who take credit for Chinese investment and dilutes Western leverage to press for human rights and rule of law reforms,” said David Shullman, senior adviser at the International Republican Institute.

In other words, economics is emerging as the key battleground in the greater competition between China and the world’s democracies over who will decide the regional and world order for the next decades. The Trump administration has correctly articulated the strategic challenge, but now the United States must put its money where its mouth is.

Read more from Josh Rogin’s archive, follow him on Twitter or subscribe to his updates on Facebook.

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Bolton: Time running out to deal with North Korea threat

Amb. John Bolton, Fox News contributor and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, says the rogue nation is getting closer to having the U.S. over a barrel.

The threat of nuclear war posed by North Korea has grown to an “unprecedented” level amid escalating tensions with the rogue regime and now requires the U.S., Japan and South Korea to demonstrate “different responses” to the threat, a Japanese official said Monday.

Speaking with the U.S. and South Korean counterparts at a meeting of Asian defense chiefs in the Philippines, Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said “(The) threat posed by North Korea has grown to the unprecedented, critical and imminent level,” according to a Reuters report. “Therefore, we have to take calibrated and different responses to meet with that level of threat.”

Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said that threats from North Korea have grown to an “unprecedented” level.  (AP Photo/Shizuo Kambayashi)

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis had similar remarks, noting that North Korea’s ongoing intimidations “threaten regional and global security.”

“North Korea’s provocative behavior is becoming worse and worse,” South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-Moo added.

NORTH KOREA, STOCKPILING WEAPONS, MOCKS ‘LUNATIC’ TRUMP WHO HAS ‘WAR FEVER’

The comments among defense chiefs follows a report that North Korea’s biological weapons program could kill tens of thousands of people and “create panic and paralyze societies.”

According to Reuters, the defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), highlighted the “need to maintain peace and stability in the region” and called “for the exercise of self-restraint and the resumption of dialogue to de-escalate tensions in the Korean peninsula.”

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called President Donald Trump a “lunatic” on Sunday for taking the U.S. and its “poor puppet forces” straight “into ruin.”

Kim Jong Un on Sunday called President Trump a “lunatic” for taking the U.S. straight “into ruin.”  (KCNA via REUTERS)

The president last week said he would “certainly take a look” at visiting the DMZ, or demilitarized zone, after he was invited to tour U.S. Army installation Camp Humphreys, located south of Seoul, the South Korean capital.

U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein recently said the military branch was preparing to place its fleet of nuclear-armed B-52 bombers on 24-hour alert status, noting that in a world where “we’ve got folks that are talking openly about use of nuclear weapons,” it’s important to remain alert and remain prepared.

Source: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/23/north-korea-threats-at-unprecedented-critical-level-japan-official-says.html

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