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	<title>Atlantic Council - Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association</title>
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		<title>Iran puts pressure on Europe to save nuclear deal within 60-day deadline</title>
		<link>https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/iran-puts-pressure-on-europe-to-save-nuclear-deal-within-60-day-deadline/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=iran-puts-pressure-on-europe-to-save-nuclear-deal-within-60-day-deadline</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Safi and agencies]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Sep 2019 11:47:53 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Atlantic Council]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behrouz Kamalvandi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union (EU)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran nuclear deal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran-EU relations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil tanker seizures]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/?p=28943</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Tehran leverages use of advanced centrifuges to call for urgent European counter-measures to US sanctions. Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for the Iranian atomic energy organization, called on European counterparts to act ‘quickly’. Photograph: Ebrahim Noroozi/AP Iran has announced it has started using more advanced centrifuges that could accelerate the development of an atomic weapon in...</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/iran-puts-pressure-on-europe-to-save-nuclear-deal-within-60-day-deadline/">Iran puts pressure on Europe to save nuclear deal within 60-day deadline</a> first appeared on <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org">Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tehran leverages use of advanced centrifuges to call for urgent European counter-measures to US sanctions.</p>
<p><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="" src="https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/9935b0c2013f5e44d455735a2ed7f01c6386068f/0_126_4000_2400/master/4000.jpg?width=300&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;s=5079969d702d1ae5833b3e4492676a88" alt="Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for the Iranian atomic energy organisation, called on European counterparts to act âquicklyâ." width="608" height="365" /><br />
Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for the Iranian atomic energy organization, called on European counterparts to act ‘quickly’. Photograph: Ebrahim Noroozi/AP</p>
<hr />
<p>Iran has announced it has started using more advanced centrifuges that could accelerate the development of an atomic weapon in its latest attempt to pressure European powers to salvage a <a class="u-underline" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/14/iran-nuclear-deal-key-points" data-link-name="in body link">2015 nuclear deal.</a></p>
<p>Behrouz Kamalvandi, the Iranian nuclear agency spokesman, told a press conference on Saturday the country did not intend to use the faster centrifuges to enrich uranium to 20% levels – an important threshold on the path to weapons-grade material – but that it had the capacity to do so.</p>
<p>“We have started lifting limitations on our research and development imposed by the deal,” Kamalvandi said. “It will include the development of more rapid and advanced centrifuges.</p>
<p>“The European parties to the deal should know that there is not much time left, and if there is some action to be taken [to rescue the nuclear agreement], it should be done quickly.”</p>
<p>Iran was in compliance of the 2015 international agreement intended to curb its development of nuclear weapons until the US <a class="u-underline" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/may/08/iran-nuclear-deal-donald-trump-latest-live-updates" data-link-name="in body link">pulled out of the deal</a> in May last year and reimposed crippling economic sanctions.</p>
<p>European signatories to the deal led by France have unsuccessfully sought to find ways to help Tehran evade the US restrictions. Iran is increasing the pressure on <a class="u-underline" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news" data-link-name="auto-linked-tag" data-component="auto-linked-tag">Europe</a> to do so, by gradually walking away from its nuclear commitments, including the pledge to refine uranium only using first-generation IR-1 centrifuges.</p>
<p>Kamalvandi said the country had started using IR-4 and IR-6 centrifuges since Friday and would soon test even more advanced models. Officials in the country say an IR-6 can produce enriched uranium 10 times as fast as an IR-1.</p>
<p>Analysts said the announcement was carefully calibrated to highlight the urgency on France and others to help relieve Iran’s ailing economy while avoiding triggering an armed response from the US or forcing Europe to formally abandon the deal.</p>
<p>“These are all very calculated because they do not want to upset the Europeans and make it less likely for them to save the nuclear agreement,” said Holly Dagres, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council who specializes in Iran’s nuclear program and its relations with the US.</p>
<p>“These are symbolic gestures to say: ‘Time is running out, this deal is hanging by a string, you need to do something’.”</p>
<p>Elements in <a class="u-underline" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/iran" data-link-name="auto-linked-tag" data-component="auto-linked-tag">Iran</a> have been accused of trying to sell oil to Syria in breach of UN sanctions, leading earlier this year to the seizure of a tanker carrying approximately $100m (£81m) worth of oil thought to be headed for a Syrian port.</p>
<p>The seizure of the vessel is believed to have led Iran to capture a British-flagged ship, the Stena Impero, by the country’s Revolutionary Guards in July. The ship remains impounded though <a class="u-underline" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/04/iran-gives-europe-two-months-to-save-nuclear-deal" data-link-name="in body link">seven crew members were released this week</a>, leaving 16 aboard.</p>
<p>The Iranian tanker, now called the Adrian Darya, was <a class="u-underline" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/18/iran-tanker-at-centre-of-diplomatic-row-set-to-leave-gibraltar" data-link-name="in body link">released on the orders</a> of a Gibraltar court in August and was photographed on Friday close to the Syrian port of Tartus, <a class="u-underline" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/07/iranian-tanker-seized-by-gibraltar-photographed-off-syria" data-link-name="in body link">according to satellite photographs released by a US space technology company</a>.</p>
<p>Maxar Technologies Inc said the image showed the tanker Adrian Darya 1 very close to Tartus on 6 September. The ship appeared to have turned off its transponder in the Mediterranean west of Syria, ship-tracking data showed. The tanker sent its last signal giving its position between Cyprus and Syria sailing north on Monday afternoon.</p>
<p>Iran’s coast guard seized another vessel on Saturday for allegedly smuggling fuel in the Gulf and detained its 12 crew members from the Philippines, the semi-official news agency ISNA reported.</p>
<p>Kamalvandi said on Saturday the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, would continue to be allowed to monitor Iranian nuclear sites and that it had been informed about Iran’s “new nuclear steps”.</p>
<p>But he set a 60-day deadline for France, Germany, and Britain to find a solution to the US sanctions, after which further nuclear escalation could follow.</p>
<p>“When the other sides do not carry out their commitments, they should not expect Iran to fulfill its commitments,” Kamalvandi said.</p>
<p><em>Reuters contributed to this report</em></p>
<hr />
<p>Source: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/07/tehran-warns-time-is-running-out-to-save-iran-nuclear-deal" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/07/tehran-warns-time-is-running-out-to-save-iran-nuclear-deal</a></p>
[<a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/news/disclaimer/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Disclaimer</a>]<p>The post <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/iran-puts-pressure-on-europe-to-save-nuclear-deal-within-60-day-deadline/">Iran puts pressure on Europe to save nuclear deal within 60-day deadline</a> first appeared on <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org">Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
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		<title>Does Trump have a Syria Plan?  U.S. needs Russia and Iran to end the war</title>
		<link>https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/does-trump-have-a-syria-plan-u-s-needs-russia-and-iran-to-end-the-war/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=does-trump-have-a-syria-plan-u-s-needs-russia-and-iran-to-end-the-war</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom O'Connor - Newsweek]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Apr 2018 07:02:57 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Bashar al-Assad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Britian]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chemical weapons production (Syria)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Donald Trump]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Plan to end war (Syria)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Syria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Syrian Civil War]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/?p=5050</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The U.S. and its British and French allies defied Russian warnings Friday in a trilateral attack against Syrian government facilities allegedly associated with the production of chemical weapons. However, experts said the move was unlikely to end the war unless the U.S. could establish a follow-up strategy and some common ground with Russia and Iran....</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/does-trump-have-a-syria-plan-u-s-needs-russia-and-iran-to-end-the-war/">Does Trump have a Syria Plan?  U.S. needs Russia and Iran to end the war</a> first appeared on <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org">Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The U.S. and its British and French allies defied Russian warnings Friday in a trilateral attack against Syrian government facilities allegedly associated with the production of chemical weapons. However, experts said the move was unlikely to end the war unless the U.S. could establish a follow-up strategy and some common ground with Russia and Iran.</p>
<p>The U.S. may have already forfeited its position as regional power broker, as it struggled to counter Russian military success in Syria and pursued an isolationist, rather than diplomatic, approach to an increasingly influential Iran. Without an accompanying push for negotiations, Trump&#8217;s limited Syria strikes would do little to deter Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from using chemical weapons, much less put pressure on his Russian and Iranian partners.</p>
<p><strong>Related: <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/us-ally-iraq-joins-russia-and-iran-says-trumps-syria-strikes-may-help-isis-887829" target="_blank" rel="noopener">U.S. ally Iraq joins Russia and Iran, says Trump’s Syria strikes may help ISIS</a></strong></p>
<p>&#8220;These strikes should have been used to precipitate actual negotiations,&#8221; Harlan Ullman, an author and senior adviser at the Washington-based Atlantic Council, told <em>Newsweek</em>. &#8220;The trouble with this administration&#8217;s strategy, it&#8217;s the same as with Obama, is that there is no strategy.&#8221;</p>
<hr />
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/does-trump-have-syria-plan-russia-does-us-still-behind-888148" target="_blank" rel="noopener">http://www.newsweek.com/does-trump-have-syria-plan-russia-does-us-still-behind-888148</a></p>
[<a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/news/disclaimer/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Disclaimer</a>]<p>The post <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/does-trump-have-a-syria-plan-u-s-needs-russia-and-iran-to-end-the-war/">Does Trump have a Syria Plan?  U.S. needs Russia and Iran to end the war</a> first appeared on <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org">Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
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		<title>Germany and the US need a new beginning in their security relationship</title>
		<link>https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/germany-us-need-new-beginning-security-relationship/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=germany-us-need-new-beginning-security-relationship</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ariel Cohen, Opinion Contributor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Feb 2018 04:34:42 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ariel Cohen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Atlantic Council]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[College of International and Security Studies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[George C. Marshall European Center]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John McCain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Loisach Group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Munich Security Conference]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NATO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe/U.S]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/?p=4237</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>© Getty Images In the snow-covered, fairy-tale city of Munich, global security leaders gathered for their yearly conclave, the Munich Security Conference, the Davos of foreign policy and power. However, instead of Bavarian glory, tension was in the air. This participant repeatedly saw speakers talking past each other, creating an impression that this was not...</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/germany-us-need-new-beginning-security-relationship/">Germany and the US need a new beginning in their security relationship</a> first appeared on <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org">Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="content-img"><img decoding="async" src="http://thehill.com/sites/default/files/styles/thumb_small_article/public/donaldtrump_angelamerkel.jpg?itok=6UYy6ef1" alt="Germany and the US need a new beginning in their security relationship" width="640" height="360" /></div>
<div class="credits">© Getty Images</p>
<p>In the snow-covered, fairy-tale city of Munich, global security leaders gathered for their yearly conclave, the Munich Security Conference, the Davos of foreign policy and power.</p>
<p>However, instead of Bavarian glory, tension was in the air. This participant repeatedly saw speakers talking past each other, creating an impression that this was not a dialogue about the fate of the world, but an absurdist theater spectacle by Eugene Ionesco.</p>
<p>Concerns abounded that the global security system has become unglued, that poor leadership East and West prevents cohesion, that the “strong street” overrules weak elites in Europe and America, and “the center cannot hold,” while the aggressive authoritarians: Russia, China, and Iran, eventually may not be contained.</p>
<p>NATO has been a linchpin of Western security for 70 years, and is crucial to preventing global chaos. Initially created, according to its first Secretary General Lord Ismay, “to keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down,” today, NATO needs the Germans in more than ever.</p>
<p>Because of the rise of China, the threat of North Korean nukes, and U.S. domestic fatigue in the aftermath of two long wars, not to mention the trillions of dollars spent, growing budget deficits, and America’s changing demographics, rich and technologically advanced Germany needs to step up to the plate.</p>
<p>With NATO and other European security institutions including the EU and the consensus-driven Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe/U.S. Helsinki Commission, fraying or fatigued, Berlin’s leadership and resources are now more essential than ever to both trans-Atlantic and European security.</p>
<p>Тhe Loisach Group, which focuses on the U.S.-German strategic relationship, is a high-level gathering of practitioners and experts from Germany and the U.S., ably coordinated by Dr. Andrew Michta, Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Center in Garmisch, Germany.</p>
<p>At the Munich Security Conference, the Loisach Group brought together such heavyweights as Dan Hamilton of SAIS; Lieutenant General Ben Hodges (U.S. Army, ret.), former Commander of the U.S. Army Europe; former President of Estonia; Joseph Joffe, Publisher of Die Zeit; Alexander Vershbow, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO and U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation and South Korea as well as the former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs; Celeste Wallander, Special Assistant to President Obama and Senior Director for Russia and Central Asia on the National Security Council after serving as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia; Robert Zoellick, the former President of the World Bank, Deputy Secretary of State, and U.S. Trade Representative, along with other veteran policy makers and experts.</p>
<p>The collective wisdom and experience crackled in the room. Yet, the bottom line after discussions was a general agreement that much more needs to be done in Berlin and Washington, and this is no time to rest.</p>
<p>Some Loisach members are concerned that the Christian Democrat-Social Democrat coalition, possibly Angela Merkel’s last, will be even more unwieldy than its predecessor. At the Munich conference, Sigmar Gabriel, the exiting German foreign minister, called for a “European moment,” a strong EU, and said that “we no longer recognize our America” under the Trump presidency.</p>
<p>Yet under his and the Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyden’s tenure, Berlin did not meet the NATO 2014 Wales summit goals of 2 percent of military spending, which both Republicans and Democrats in Munich supported.</p>
<p>Some believe that it is more important that Germany invest in transportation infrastructure, including bridges and railroads, to move equipment east in case of Russian aggression against NATO members, than just build up its military. Yet, German rearmament already has started, sotto voce, albeit from a very low baseline. The Bundeswehr has fewer than 300 battle-worthy Leopard-2 modern tanks and three dozen modern jet fighters. Russia, however, has thousands of tanks and aircraft.</p>
<p>NATO forces also urgently need secure communications in the FM band as well as upgraded, computerized artillery fire after the impressive Russian cannon and rocketry performance in Ukraine, boosted missile defenses, and massively upgraded cyber and information warfare capabilities.</p>
<p>Loisach Group members argue that to strengthen bilateral ties between the U.S. and Germany, expanded contacts between congressional representatives and staffs and members of the Bundestag and their staffs are required. Likewise, relationships between the media, expert communities, and civil society in both countries need to be fostered and broadened.</p>
<p>To keep our qualitative edge, the U.S. and Europe should also pursue joint projects in military and security applications of artificial intelligence, new propulsion systems, robotics, drones, big data, and biometrics.</p>
<p>We need to find someone of the stature of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) to take over his leadership role and champion the trans-Atlantic alliance. It will take a special effort to convert the populist Trumpian Republicans and the far left of the Democratic Party to the cause of Trans-Atlantic cooperation. America First should not mean America alone. If America stands separately, we will all pay the price, and so will our friends and allies.</p>
<p>While many in Europe do not see China and North Korea as a threat, refuse to reconsider the Iran nuclear deal, and, like Mr. Gabriel, would like to weaken Russian sanctions, only in cooperation with the U.S. can Europe develop a viable and robust strategy for Asia, the Middle East, and Russia, and have a realistic global anti-terrorism role. We are all in this together, and one hopes that the Loisach Group can become the lodestar of U.S.-German strategic cooperation.</p>
<p>Ariel Cohen, PhD, is senior research fellow at the Atlantic Council and a member of the Loisach Group. The views expressed here are his own.</p>
<hr />
<p>Source: <a href="http://thehill.com/opinion/international/375450-germany-and-the-us-need-a-new-beginning-in-their-security-relationship" target="_blank" rel="noopener">http://thehill.com/opinion/international/375450-germany-and-the-us-need-a-new-beginning-in-their-security-relationship</a></p>
[<a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/news/disclaimer/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Disclaimer</a>]</div><p>The post <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/germany-us-need-new-beginning-security-relationship/">Germany and the US need a new beginning in their security relationship</a> first appeared on <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org">Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
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		<title>Iran, Deeply Embedded in Syria, Expands ‘Axis of Resistance’</title>
		<link>https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/iran-deeply-embedded-syria-expands-axis-resistance/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=iran-deeply-embedded-syria-expands-axis-resistance</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ben Hubbard, Isabel Kershner and Anne Barnard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Feb 2018 20:03:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Axis of Resistance (Iran)]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Lebanon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russian intervention (Syria)]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Tomer Bar (Israel air force)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/?p=4154</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Kiswah base, above: Tiyas air base                                                  Compound near Damascus Airport, above Al Shayrat airfield By The New York Times &#124; Source: Institute for the Study of War. Satellite images by Bing....</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/iran-deeply-embedded-syria-expands-axis-resistance/">Iran, Deeply Embedded in Syria, Expands ‘Axis of Resistance’</a> first appeared on <a href="https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org">Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="story-interrupter">
<figure id="syria-iran-sat" class="interactive interactive-embedded lede limit-small layout-xlarge">
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<p><img decoding="async" id="g-sat-1050-img" class="g-aiImg" src="https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2018/02/16/syria-iran-sat/fefc093cdc99138d28554af2a9c5c03c232a7580/sat-1050.png" data-src="https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2018/02/16/syria-iran-sat/fefc093cdc99138d28554af2a9c5c03c232a7580/sat-1050.png" /></p>
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<div id="g-ai0-5" class="g-text-background g-aiAbs g-aiPointText">
<p class="g-pstyle2">Kiswah base, above: Tiyas air base                                                  Compound near Damascus Airport, above Al Shayrat airfield</p>
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<div class="interactive-credit">By The New York Times | Source: Institute for the Study of War. Satellite images by Bing.</div>
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<p id="story-continues-1" class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="225" data-total-count="225">BEIRUT, Lebanon — When an Iranian drone flew into Israeli airspace this month, it set off a rapid <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/10/world/middleeast/israel-iran-syria.html">series of strikes and counterstrikes</a> that deepened fears over whether a new, catastrophic war was brewing in the Middle East.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="258" data-total-count="483">That flare-up ended quickly, if violently, with <a href="https://twitter.com/LTCJonathan/status/962305194615853057">the drone destroyed</a> and an Israeli jet downed after bombing sites in Syria. But the day of fighting drew new attention to how deeply Iran has embedded itself in Syria, redrawing the strategic map of the region.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="399" data-total-count="882">Tactical advisers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps are deployed at military bases across Syria. Its commanders regularly show up at the front lines to lead battles. Iran has built and continues to back powerful militias with thousands of fighters it has trained in Syria. And it has brought in new technologies, like drones, to spy on enemies and perhaps to attack them from the sky.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="256" data-total-count="1138">Both Israeli officials and Israel’s enemies say that any new conflict between Israel and Iran, or any of its allies, could mobilize Iran’s expanding network of militant proxies in multiple countries, what Iran refers to as “the axis of resistance.”</p>
<p id="story-continues-2" class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="303" data-total-count="1441">“If there is a war, it will be regional,” said Kamel Wazne, the founder of the Center for American Strategic Studies, in Beirut, who studies the policies of the United States and Iran in the Middle East. “Any confrontation will be with the whole resistance front against Israel and its backers.”</p>
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<p class="g-pstyle0">TURKEY &#8211; Squares indicate long term positions held by Iranian forces or their allies.</p>
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<p>By The New York Times | Sources: Institute for the Study of War. Points include headquarters, logistical nodes, drone control rooms, training centers, and other related sites. Does not include temporary front-line positions.</p>
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<p id="story-continues-4" class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="226" data-total-count="1667">Iran and its allies first intervened in Syria to defend the rule of President Bashar al-Assad against Syrian rebels after the civil war broke out in 2011, and later helped his forces against the jihadists of the Islamic State.</p>
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<p id="story-continues-6" class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="368" data-total-count="2035">But as the rebels have lost ground and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/world/middleeast/syria-assad-war.html">no </a><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/world/middleeast/syria-assad-war.html">clear </a><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/world/middleeast/syria-assad-war.html">threats to Mr. Assad’s rule remain</a>, Iran and its allies have stayed, shifting their focus to creating an infrastructure to threaten Israel, analysts say. Iran continues to train and equip fighters while strengthening ties with allies in Iraq and Lebanon, in hopes of building a united front in the event of a new war.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="276" data-total-count="2311">“The ultimate goal is, in the case of another war, to make Syria a new front between Israel, Hezbollah and Iran,” said Amir Toumaj, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who studies Iran. “They are making that not just a goal, but a reality.”</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="380" data-total-count="2691">Iranian leaders speak openly of their work to build this axis of resistance against Israeli and American influence. A key to Iran’s strategy, analysts and officials say, is to rely not on conventional military hardware or control of territory, which Israel can easily bomb, but on building ties with local forces who share its goals and benefit from its financing and expertise.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="315" data-total-count="3006">That approach has enabled Iran to amplify its power in the Arab world while decreasing the threat to its own forces and homeland. It has also created a problem for countries including the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia, who fear Iran’s growing influence but have struggled to come up with ways to stop it.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="442" data-total-count="3448">Some people in Israel have started referring to a potential “First Northern War,” meaning that Israel will have to fight across both the Lebanese and Syrian frontiers. And many Israelis say the danger is not just from the new Iranian-backed militias, but also from the Iranian efforts to give advanced, high-precision weapons capable of hitting sensitive infrastructure to Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful and experienced external force.</p>
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<p><img decoding="async" class="media-viewer-candidate" src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/02/19/world/19Syria-Iran-01/merlin_133583850_c756dbc3-57e6-495b-9f4d-e85130d5d844-master675.jpg" alt="" data-mediaviewer-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/02/19/world/19Syria-Iran-01/merlin_133583850_c756dbc3-57e6-495b-9f4d-e85130d5d844-superJumbo.jpg" data-mediaviewer-caption="Pieces of an Israeli F-16 that crashed in northern Israel on Feb. 10 after coming under antiaircraft fire." data-mediaviewer-credit="Abir Sultan/European Pressphoto Agency" /></p>
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</div><figcaption class="caption"><span class="caption-text">Pieces of an Israeli F-16 that crashed in northern Israel on Feb. 10 after coming under antiaircraft fire.</span><span class="credit"><span class="credit"><span class="visually-hidden">Credit</span>Abir Sultan/European Pressphoto Agency</span></span>&nbsp;</p>
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<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="515" data-total-count="3963">Israeli officials have said that Iran and its allies are seeking to establish a land corridor from Iran to the Mediterranean, via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, to ease the transportation of such weapons and to build underground factories to manufacture them in Lebanon and Syria. Israel has been bombing convoys in Syria that are believed to be carrying advanced arms to Hezbollah, but the group’s covert nature makes it hard to determine which arms have slipped through and whether its arms factories are functioning.</p>
<p id="story-continues-7" class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="207" data-total-count="4170">Such arms, coupled with heavy barrages from the more than 100,000 rockets and missiles without high-precision targeting capability that Israel says Hezbollah already has, could overwhelm Israel’s defenses.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="361" data-total-count="4531">“Israel will face not only quantity, but the threat to vulnerable strategic sites,” said Yaakov Amidror, a former Israeli national security adviser and now a fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies. Referring to the combination of more precise weapons and a new front, he added: “Each one is problematic; together, they are devastating.”</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="452" data-total-count="4983">Iran’s moves in the region have alarmed the United States. “What’s particularly concerning is that this network of proxies is becoming more and more capable as Iran seeds more and more” of its “destructive weapons into these networks,” Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, President Trump’s national security adviser, said at a security conference in Munich on Saturday. “So the time is now, we think, to act against Iran,” General McMaster added.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="416" data-total-count="5399">In expanding its influence in Syria in recent years, Iran has followed a standard template. In Lebanon in the 1980s, it helped create Hezbollah, which has since evolved into the country’s predominant military force and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/27/world/middleeast/hezbollah-iran-syria-israel-lebanon.html">a regional power in its own right</a>, joining the wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. In Iraq, Iran has sponsored a range of militias while developing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-iraq-iranian-power.html">deep ties to the Iraqi economy and political system</a>.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="118" data-total-count="5517">The war in Syria gave Iran a new opportunity to advance that project by linking its allies across the Levant together.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="168" data-total-count="5685">Fighters from Hezbollah routed Syrian rebels near the Lebanese border and Iran sent advisers to help Mr. Assad’s beleaguered forces during the early years of the war.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="285" data-total-count="5970">But by 2013, Mr. Assad’s forces were on the verge of collapse, and Iran intervened more forcefully, undertaking an extensive regional operation to train, arm and transport thousands of Shiite militiamen from abroad to Syria to fight the rebels and the jihadists of the Islamic State.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="355" data-total-count="6325">Estimates of the number of Iranian military personnel in Syria today range from the high hundreds to the low thousands. While some directly participate in combat, most are trainers, commanders or experts who advise the Syrian military and oversee militias. It is these militias, which could have as many as 20,000 fighters, that give Iran its true muscle.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="345" data-total-count="6670">Those fighters include about 6,000 from Hezbollah. Most of the rest of the militia members — who come from Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Pakistan and elsewhere — have been enticed to fight in Syria with money and appeals to their Shiite faith. Indeed, most see the war in Syria in religious terms, as a jihad against enemies of their religion.</p>
<p id="story-continues-8" class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="357" data-total-count="7027">Ali Alfoneh, a researcher at the Atlantic Council who tracks reports of foreign militia fighters killed in Syria, said the number of deaths reported had decreased substantially as those fighting for Mr. Assad have gotten the upper hand in the war. But instead of leaving the country, he said, the militias appeared to be shifting their sights toward Israel.</p>
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<p><img decoding="async" class="media-viewer-candidate" src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/02/19/world/19SYRIA-IRAN-02/merlin_99829939_6ef9c419-9a05-4edc-9f69-d2ebb747ab2f-master675.jpg" alt="" data-mediaviewer-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/02/19/world/19SYRIA-IRAN-02/merlin_99829939_6ef9c419-9a05-4edc-9f69-d2ebb747ab2f-superJumbo.jpg" data-mediaviewer-caption="Israeli soldiers near the village of Keshet in Golan Heights, in 2015." data-mediaviewer-credit="Uriel Sinai for The New York Times" /></p>
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</div><figcaption class="caption"><span class="caption-text">Israeli soldiers near the village of Keshet in Golan Heights, in 2015.</span> <span class="credit"><span class="visually-hidden">Credit</span>Uriel Sinai for The New York Times</p>
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<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="146" data-total-count="7173">“Iran has realized that it is actually possible to maintain a front against Israel where there is no war but also no peace,” Mr. Alfoneh said.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="308" data-total-count="7481">In his research, Mr. Alfoneh said he had identified three main Iranian bases that oversee operations in large parts of Syria — one near Aleppo in the north and two south of the capital, Damascus — as well as seven smaller tactical bases near active front lines where Iran and its proxies have a presence.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="227" data-total-count="7708">The idea of a permanent Iranian presence in Syria worries Israel, which fears that it could face a threat there similar to that posed by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Analysts close to Iran and its proxies say that is exactly the idea.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="344" data-total-count="8052">“It’s like a replication of the Hezbollah model,” said Ali Rizk, a Lebanese analyst who writes for Al Monitor, a news website focused on the Middle East. Iran is already training fighters in southern Syria, he said, so that if Hezbollah draws down its presence there, as its leaders have vowed to, it will leave behind a Syrian prototype.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="226" data-total-count="8278">In recent months, at least two Iraqi militia leaders have visited the Lebanon-Israel border with Hezbollah, and militia members say the visits have included developing plans for how they might collaborate in a future conflict.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="237" data-total-count="8515">Life has <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-life-in-golan-returns-to-normal-after-israel-syria-escalation-1.5811153">returned to normal</a> in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights since the day of battle on Feb. 10, and the ski resort on Mount Hermon has been operating as usual. There was no immediate sense among Israelis of being on a war footing.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="397" data-total-count="8912">But Israelis and many Lebanese have long worried that another war across their border is inevitable. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/18/world/europe/netanyahu-iran-drone.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;clickSource=story-heading&amp;module=first-column-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news">ratcheted up the rhetoric</a> on Sunday at the security conference in Munich, warning Iran’s leaders not to test Israel’s resolve and pledging that if pushed, Israel would act “not only against Iranian proxies that are attacking us, but against Iran itself.”</p>
<p id="story-continues-9" class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="410" data-total-count="9322">Both sides say they do not want war, and the fear of extensive destruction and civilian deaths has deterred new hostilities since the last war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. But the more entrenched Iran’s allies become, the greater the pressure Israeli leaders could face to launch a strike — and the greater the chances that a miscalculation or mistake by either side could provoke new hostilities.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="251" data-total-count="9573">Some analysts have expressed hopes that Russia, which also intervened in Syria on Mr. Assad’s behalf, could serve as a check on Iran’s ambitions. Russia has cooperated with Iran during the war but also seeks to maintain good relations with Israel.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="279" data-total-count="9852">Notably, Russia has not publicly complained when Israel has bombed convoys believed to be bound for Hezbollah. Others question to what degree the Syrian population will buy into Iran’s ideological project, noting that only a tiny portion of Syrians share Iran’s Shiite faith.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="255" data-total-count="10107">Much remains unclear about Iran’s intentions. Days after Israel destroyed the drone, Israeli military officials said they were still not sure whether it had been armed, had been sent on a surveillance mission or was merely a test of Israel’s defenses.</p>
<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="215" data-total-count="10322">“It is very important for us to understand its mission,” Brig. Gen. Tomer Bar, the chief of staff of the Israeli Air Force, told reporters. “We have to understand it and we will investigate it till the end.”</p>
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<p>Ben Hubbard and Anne Barnard reported from Beirut, and Isabel Kershner from Jerusalem.</p>
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<p>Source: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/19/world/middleeast/iran-syria-israel.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/19/world/middleeast/iran-syria-israel.html</a></p>
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