Avigdor Lieberman (Israel) - Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association

Can Israel Really Trust Russia to Remove Iranian Forces From Syria?

Amos Harel — Mon, 16 Jul 2018 14:36:26 +0000

Fate of Iran’s presence in Syria rests with Trump-Putin meeting ■ Israeli official to EU counterparts: Iran nuke deal is dead, and you insist on giving it Advil.

/AP

U.S. News and World Report this week ranked Israel as the world’s eighth most powerful nation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made sure to mention this to Likud lawmakers at a party meeting. He also pointed out, rightly, that all the countries ranked ahead of Israel have much larger populations.

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But strong as it may be, Israel is still just another player on the international playing field – and the Middle East is far from the most important region on the world map at the moment. Strategic developments depend on relations between the world powers that Israel trailed in the rankings: The trade war declared by the Trump administration on China, and U.S. relations with Russia, which will be put to an important test at the Trump-Putin summit in Helsinki on Monday.

The critical arena in Netanyahu’s mind remains, as always, the fight against Iran. This battle expanded in the past year from efforts to halt Tehran’s nuclear project to a direct clash with Iranian forces in Syria, with the aim of reducing their presence and influence there.

> The Delusion of a Ukraine for Syria ‘Deal’ | Opinion >>

But even with regard to Iran and Syria, Israel must take broader processes into account. Russia is currently pressing for the completion of the de-escalation plan in Syria. Netanyahu may have influenced its design during his meeting with Putin in Moscow on Wednesday. But what comes next depends on what happens when Putin exerts his nearly magical – perhaps blackmail is part of it? – influence on President Donald Trump.

Putin appears to be seeking a wider deal that, in addition to Syria, would include new understandings in Eastern Europe.

One point being raised by the Russians is their expectation that the West lift the sanctions it imposed following Russian involvement in the fighting in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

The Russian plan in Syria is clear: President Bashar Assad will get full control of most parts of the country, including the Syrian Golan Heights to which his forces will soon return, and Israel will pledge not to interfere. In return, Moscow promises to block Iranian forces and Shi’ite militias’ proximity from the Golan Heights border: Various distances – 40, 60, even 80 kilometers (25, 37 and 50 miles, respectively) – have been mentioned. Netanyahu believes the Russians will keep their word. In a briefing with Israeli journalists in Moscow on Wednesday, he spoke of the process as if it were already underway.

The Israel Defense Forces has also been sounding cautiously optimistic. Distancing the Iranians from the border is seen as being a Russian interest – the war is about to end and Iran has exhausted the benefit it can bring to the Kremlin. Putin is not looking for partners with whom to share the dividends of success. Assad would also probably like to wriggle a little freer of the Iranian embrace.

This forecast minimizes the potential difficulties. Even in an international climate where keeping one’s word is far from the norm, Moscow stands out for its cynicism, and Putin and his spokespeople have been lying for years without batting an eyelid.

>> Iran must adapt to new strategic reality – or risk the fall of the Islamic Republic || Opinion >> ■ Russia-Israel deal is clear: Iran away from border, Assad’s rule accepted || Analysis >>

Israel won’t be able to easily rely on Russian insistence that the understandings are being upheld. Their enforcement will be especially complicated in the densely populated Damascus region – which is within the range Israel wants the Iranians to be kept out of. Already, there are signs that members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Shi’ite militia fighters are shedding their uniforms to mix in with Syrian Army units in the battles taking place in the south.

Above all, even after the series of blows inflicted upon it in Syria, Iran has not relented in its drive for military entrenchment there. Per several of the attacks that have been attributed to Israel by foreign media in the past month – first at Abu Kamal in eastern Syria and then at the T4 airbase near the central Syrian city of Homs – Iran is once again trying to deploy advanced weapons systems in Syria, and Israel is again seemingly taking measures against this.

Most of the attempts to smuggle in weapons systems is done by air. However, the airstrike on the weapons convoy in eastern Syria shows that the Iranians are also often trying to make use of the ground corridor they established after the Americans rid the area of Islamic State forces. If the Russians don’t keep their word, the airstrikes will likely continue.

It’s interesting that since the exchange of blows on February 10 (in which an Iranian drone penetrated Israeli territory and an Israeli F-16 was shot down), no more condemnations have been heard from Moscow. Only a tiny fraction of the measures taken by Israel is made known to the Israeli public and the foreign media. One could cautiously venture that the amount of munitions dropped by the air force in unpublicized missions over the past several years is not far from the amount of munitions it used in Gaza in the summer war of 2014.

For the most part, this effort has proceeded without mishaps or complications. And this is the source of the Israeli satisfaction with the operative results: The Iranian penetration into Syria is limited and Hezbollah has so far not been able to achieve its objective of significantly improving the precision of its rockets in Lebanon.

In the longer term, as Netanyahu told Putin at their meeting, Israel still wants to see all the Iranian advisers and Shi’ite fighters entirely removed from Syria – since even weapons systems deployed 100 or 200 kilometers from Israel’s border with Syria endanger Israel’s security.

>> Israel’s ultimate consideration in shooting down Syrian drone ■ What Syrian children learn: Anti-Semitism, love of Russia and suspicion of Iran >>

Israel is not making a similar claim against Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal – some of which is stored in southern Lebanon, in violation of UN Resolution 1701 – because it understands that this would be an impossible demand. But in fact, almost 12 years to the day after the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War, the top security risk is found in Lebanon, not Syria, where the Iranians are in a clearly inferior position from a security standpoint.

Iran is also engaged in a holding action on its other front. Right now, things appear to be going badly for its nuclear program. A senior Israeli official who recently met with visiting European Union representatives told them that European efforts to keep the nuclear accord with Iran alive following the Americans’ withdrawal from it in May are doomed.

“There’s a corpse in the room, the Vienna agreement, and you want to give it Advil and persist in believing it will come back to life,” the Israeli said. The visitors pointed out that the European partners to the agreement – Great Britain, France and Germany – have all decided to stick to its framework. Their host argued that the market will dictate the outcome and the major corporations are already voting with their feet and fleeing Iran, for fear of being subjected to U.S. sanctions.

Israeli defense officials are reacting positively to the 12-point paper issued by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, outlining the administration’s policy against Iran. The shift in American strategy is also reflected in the understandings in Washington regarding Syria. In previous years, the Obama administration and then the Trump administration concentrated their efforts in Syria and Iraq on fighting ISIS and various Al-Qaida affiliates. This effort enabled the Assad regime and the Russians to free up forces and aircraft to attack the less extreme rebel groups, and later to step into part of the vacuum left behind when ISIS fled Syria. Now the Americans are attempting to take a more balanced approach and to increase coordination with Israel.

Pompeo, who visited the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, spoke in a television interview of his main objective: forming a regional coalition to counter Tehran. He accused Iran of using its embassies in Europe as terrorism bases, and said an Iranian attempt to plant a bomb at a convention of regime opponents in Paris had been foiled.

The U.S. secretary of state singled out Gen. Qassem Soleimani of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds force. The general is causing trouble in Syria and Iraq, and he and his organization must be made to pay a higher price for it, said Pompeo.

Asked about the possibility that the U.S. and Israeli efforts will ultimately help to bring about regime change in Iran, Israeli defense officials were wary of making any such predictions.

The protests in Iran in recent months are perceived as authentic and of significant magnitude. The complaint that the country is investing money it does not have abroad at the expense of its own citizens ($12 to 14 billion alone to aid the Assad regime over the last seven years) is increasingly gaining public sympathy in Iran. But intelligence officials stress there is no real way to predict the outcome of a popular rebellion, and note that the Iranian authorities already showed great skill (and brutality) in suppressing the failed Green Movement of 2009.

Israeli politicians appear less skeptical. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman have been making direct appeals to the Iranian people in recent weeks via social media, denouncing the Iranian regime. And Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz, speaking at a conference of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs this week, asserted that “the economic pressure on Iran could lead the regime to collapse within a year.

The post Can Israel Really Trust Russia to Remove Iranian Forces From Syria? first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

WW3 warning: ‘80,000 Iranian fighters’ could launch GROUND INVASION to break up Israel

Oli Smith — Sun, 29 Apr 2018 20:46:29 +0000

THE shock revelation of an alleged Iranian base in Syria, close to the Israeli border, holding up to 80,000 fighters has threatened to push the world closer to an outbreak of conflict, according to expert commentators on the BBC.

The Israeli ambassador to the UN revealed earlier this week a photo of an alleged Iranian basenear Damascus, holding up to 80,000 fighters.

In response, Israel insisted the country would launch a military strike to prevent Tehran from launching a ground invasion across the nearby border.

Ambassador Danny Danon presented the aerial photograph on Thursday, telling the UN Security Council: “There are over 80,000 extremists from all over the Middle East who are members of Shia militias in Syria under Iranian control.

“It is at this base, just over five miles from Damascus, where these dangerous extremists are trained and then assigned their missions of terror throughout Syria and the region.”

In a shocking threat to the Tehran regime, the ambassador added: “Israel has a very clear policy. We will not allow regimes that seek our destruction to acquire nuclear weapons.”

Speaking on the BBC panel show Dateline, Alex Deane, a British Conservative commentator, claimed an Iranian ground invasion could not be ruled out.

He said: “80,000 so far is not a small manoeuvre, that tens of thousands of troops.

“People don’t want the Iranian regime to be the next North Korea, empowered by nuclear capabilities to reinforce itself and stop conventional intervention with nuclear retaliation.”

GETTY

Israel insisted that the country would unleash a military strike to prevent Tehran from attacking

Earlier in the show, Agnes Poirier, from French broadcaster Marianne, added: “Syria is becoming a sort of Lebanon. Iran is using Syria to pressure Israel.

“There are 80,000 Iranian forces scattered around Syria, and Israel is rightfully concerned. Iran is trying to control Damascus as much as Beirut.

There are growing tensions between Western powers and Iran, ahead of 12th May deadline set by US President Donald Trump, who has threatened to pull out of the Iranian nuclear deal.

Mr Trump has vowed to never let Iran have nuclear weapons, but refused to say if he would consider military force.

BBC

Agnes Poirier, from French broadcaster Marianne, warned of Iranian pressure of the Israel border

GETTY

There are growing tensions between Western powers and Iran

Ambassador Danon’s announcement at the UN follows the the 9th April attack on Syria’s T-4 air base, which killed seven members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, including the head of its drone program, Mehdi Dehghan.

Iran, Syria, Russia, and some US officials have all said Israel was responsible for the strike but Israeli officials have refused to comment on the matter.

Israeli officials have previously stated that they will not allow Iran to entrench itself in Syria, noting it as a “red line” for military action.

Earlier this week, Israel’s defense minister Avigdor Lieberman agreed that his country will strike Tehran if attacked by Iran.

He said: “We hear many Iranian threats but if they attack Tel Aviv, we will strike Tehran.”

The post WW3 warning: ‘80,000 Iranian fighters’ could launch GROUND INVASION to break up Israel first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

The shadow war between Israel and Iran takes center stage

Ishaan Tharoor — Tue, 24 Apr 2018 05:09:17 +0000

The rumblings of an open conflict between Israel and Iran in Syria are growing louder. When President Trump launched yet another one-off missile salvo against the Syrian regime, it came on the heels of a suspected April 9 Israeli strike on an Iranian facility at a Syrian air base, which drew howls of condemnation from the regime’s patrons in Moscow and Tehran.

Though Israel didn’t acknowledge responsibility for the attack, it fit a familiar pattern. Since 2012, the Israelis are believed to have launched more than 100 strikes on suspected Iranian-linked positions in Syria. Israeli officials privately argue that these measures are necessary to prevent a permanent Iranian threat on their borders and stymie the flow of weaponry to Iran’s Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah.

“No matter the price, we will not allow a noose to form around us,” Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Israel Radio over the weekend. But he cautioned against talk of outright hostilities. “I hope not,” he said when asked whether war was imminent. “I think that our primary role is to prevent war, and that requires concrete, real deterrence as well as readiness to act.”

Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif made similar appeals for calm in a Sunday interview with CBS News, though he accused the Israelis of escalating “tension by violating Syrian airspace.”

“I do not believe that we are headed towards regional war. But I do believe that, unfortunately, Israel has continued its violations with international law, hoping to be able to do it with impunity because of the U.S. support and trying to find smokescreens to hide behind,” Zarif said.

Still, Zarif warned that Israel was playing a risky game. “They should expect that if they continue to violate territorial integrity of other states, there’ll be consequences,” he said. “The easiest answer would be to stop — to stop these acts of aggression, to stop these incursions.”

Transcript: full interview with Mohammad Javad Zarif https://t.co/VIIi7fB9q0 pic.twitter.com/7RzAlnerRf

— CBS News (@CBSNews) April 23, 2018

But the Israelis have made clear that an entrenched Iranian presence in Syria marks a new red line. They point to the new threat of Iranian drones, potentially armed with explosives, entering Israeli airspace, as well as the old threat of rockets launched from southern Lebanon. The April 9 strike, according to one account, was Israel’s first direct attack on Iranian equipment and personnel and killed a senior Iranian drone commander.

Last week, the Israeli military leaked details and satellite images of the existence of an Iranian “air force” in Syria, including civilian planes they claimed were ferrying shipments of arms. The leak was supposed to signal to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the powerful military organization that dominates Iran’s foreign policy decisions, that Israel had new targets already in sight should the Iranians or their proxies attack.

From the Iranian perspective, their presence in Syria is a legitimate defense of their beleaguered ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. And they see their capacity to threaten Israel from next door as a potential deterrent against a long-standing regional foe.

“Israeli leaders frequently threaten to bomb Iran, so having strong military proxies near Israel’s borders gives Iran some protection,” wrote Ben Hubbard and David Halbfinger of the New York Times. “If Israel attacks Iran, the thinking goes, it knows it can expect a painful response from Hezbollah in Lebanon, and perhaps from other militias now operating in Syria.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds up what he claimed was a piece of an Iranian drone shot down over Israel while speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 18. (Lennart Preiss/Munich Security Conference /Agence France-Presse)

The deepening tensions come at a time of growing discontent within the Islamic Republic. A tanking economy has blown the lid on popular frustration with the regime and even prompted Zarif’s putative boss, President Hassan Rouhani, to complain about the costly war effort in Syria. But the prospect of broader confrontation with Israel — and the likely upcoming drama over Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers — may persuade regime hard-liners that now is the time to circle the wagons.

“The shadow war has come to light after the decision by the Iranian leadership to proceed with the IRGC’s plans to establish permanent bases in Syria. This was not a unanimous decision,” wrote Anshel Pfeffer in the Times of London. “The faction in Tehran led by the country’s president, Hassan Rouhani, is in favor of investing in Iran’s domestic economy the huge amounts of money these bases will cost. But the IRGC has the ear of the nation’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and it is keen to capitalize on the investment it has made in propping up the Assad regime for the past seven years.”

The way forward is treacherous. “Iran is determined to entrench its positions in Syria, and Israel is determined to prevent them,” said Amos Yadlin, a former commander of Israeli military intelligence, to Pfeffer.

He suggested that Russia, whose forces help prop up the regime’s air defenses and whose diplomats are key interlocutors to both the Iranians and the Israelis, will play a critical role. “Conflict is inevitable unless Putin steps in to prevent it,” Yadlin said. But recent events suggest that the Russians have limited influence over Iran and are more concerned about reinforcing the Syrian regime.

At the same time, some foreign policy figures in Washington seem keen on letting Israel continue its covert campaign against the Iranians. They see Israeli strikes as necessary at a time when President Trump wants to disengage from the Syrian conflict and outsource the stabilization of the country to Iran’s Sunni Arab rivals.

But other experts contend that this does not amount to a real strategy. “There is a pathway to containing and deterring Iran in Syria … but it requires more than just Israel’s itchy trigger finger and cheerleading from the sidelines by Arab autocracies,” wrote Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution, who argued for more robust diplomatic engagement from the Trump administration and cautioned against alienating allies by pulling out of the nuclear deal.

In February, the International Crisis Group issued a report warning that the current atmosphere of tensions made “miscalculation more likely” in Syria. Since then, the risks of an escalation have only intensified.

Ishaan Tharoor writes about foreign affairs for The Washington Post. He previously was a senior editor and correspondent at Time magazine, based first in Hong Kong and later in New York.

Follow @ishaantharoor

Sources: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/04/24/the-shadow-war-between-israel-and-iran-takes-center-stage/?utm_term=.d4dc597871d3

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Liberman, Netanyahu to Iran: Israel has never been more prepared to fight

i24 news[Israel] — Sat, 21 Apr 2018 05:36:56 +0000

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, speaks with Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman during a special cabinet meeting to mark Jerusalem Day in Ein Lavan, on the outskirts of Jerusalem, Thursday, June 2, 2016. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP) Israel celebrated its 70th Independence Day this week, where Iran was mentioned several times in speeches

Following Friday’s threat by Iranian general Hossein Salami, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired back at Iran, saying Israel has never been more ready to defend itself.

Asked about the Iranian threats by reporters on Friday, Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said Israel was fully prepared for a “multi-arena” conflict, referring to fire from both Gaza and Lebanon.

“We have been hearing these threats for many years now, and I am suggesting that all those on the northern border [in Lebanon] really think hard about what they do — they really should not test the IDF or the State of Israel,” Liberman said in response to Salami’s threat that Israel’s air bases are within reach.

“We are ready for a multi-arena scenario and I don’t remember a time of such preparedness and readiness, both in the army and among the people of Israel,” the defense minister said as he was touring the Gaza border amid Friday’s protests in the Strip.

Salami, the vice commander of Iran’s revolutionary guards, issued a harshly-worded threat to Israel on Friday, warning that the Jewish State’s air bases were “within reach” for Iranian missiles and once they strike the only escape will be the sea.

In this picture released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader on Wednesday, May 20, 2015, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, arrives at a graduation ceremony of the Revolutionary Guard’s officers, while deputy comm (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

“Israel: Don’t trust in your airbases; they’re within reach,” Salami wrote on Twitter.

“Don’t have hope in US and UK; when they arrive, you’re not there… Smallest goal will be your existence.You can’t bear. When you escape, you’ll have no way but to the sea,” he added.

Tensions between arch-foes Israel and Iran have reached a crescendo in recent weeks since Israel’s pre-dawn attack on an Iranian-operated T-4 (Tayfur) airbase that killed 14 people, reportedly including 7 Iranian personnel.

In an earlier tweet on Friday, Salami wrote: “Hands are on the trigger and missiles are ready and will be launched at any moment that enemy has a sinister plot… North and west of Israel are at the intersection of fire; you will not escape. You live in the dragon’s mouth.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu fired back at the Iranian general’s threats, saying the IDF will fight whoever tries to harm the Jewish state.

“We hear the threats from Iran. The IDF and the security forces are ready for any development. We will fight whoever tries to harm us. We will not shy away from the price and we will exact a price from those who want to hurt us. The IDF is ready for the job and the people will stand strong.”

Israel celebrated its 70th Independence Day this week, where Iran was mentioned several times in speeches by President Reuven Rivlin and Netanyahu.

At a reception for ambassadors, diplomats and military attaches from around the world at Rivlin’s residence in Jerusalem on Thursday, the President stated that Iran continues to be a threat to the stability of the region.

“Of course there are others who do not want peace. The Iranian regime – not the Iranian people – continues to support terror and hatred and to endanger world’s security. This is a challenge for the whole world, and the whole world must face it together. We all must do everything we can to stop these evil regime.”

Netanyahu appealed to the foreign diplomats by calling Iran an enemy of the entire international community.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at Israel’s 70th Independence Day ceremony in Jerusalem, April 18, 2018 i24NEWS

“There are two things that you can do to help Israel celebrate this great Independence Day. The first thing is – speak out against Iran. Iran is the enemy of us all – of Israel and the Arab world. It openly speaks about liquidating Israel in the 21st century.”

Netanyahu’s comments came a day before the Iranian general threatened to annihilate Israel.

The post Liberman, Netanyahu to Iran: Israel has never been more prepared to fight first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Analysis Alleged Israeli Strike in Syria: Why Iran’s Silence Speaks Volumes

Zvi Bar'el — Sun, 03 Dec 2017 03:42:37 +0000

What exactly was attacked in Syria? According to leading Iranian news outlets, no Iranian bases were attacked near Damascus. At most it was a “Syrian army weapons depot” a base near Damascus. And yet according to a more detailed report by the Turkish new agency Anadolu, not only was a weapons base attacked, it was a military base where a Syrian army unit and a munitions factory are located. According to Iranian and Syrian reports, Syrian missiles intercepted Israeli surface-to-surface missiles, which were fired from the area of Tel Fares in the Golan Heights. At the same time, Israeli planes attacked targets in Syria with air-to-surface missiles from Lebanese airspace.

The Iranian reports are making an effort to frame the assault as an incident that doesn’t warrant a main headline and most particularly if it has nothing to do with Iran. If Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman states publicly that there are no Iranian forces in Syria, why should Iran deny it?

According to reports in Syria, the assault was near the city of Al Kiswah, south of Damascus. If this is true, this is a Syrian base where Hezbollah activists and other Iranian-backed forces are stationed. The lack of an official Iranian response so far, even one that makes clear its commitment to protect Syria, could attest to the fact that at this point Tehran doesn’t want the assault to become a strategic test that could lead to a direct clash with Israel.

As opposed to Lieberman’s statements, the Iranian opposition reported in detail on the location of the Iranian bases in Syria, the deployment of Iranian forces and its proxies in that country. According to the opposition, those forces number about 70,000, and include members of the Revolutionary Guard, Afghans recruits operating as a militia (Al Fatemiyoun), Hezbollah fighters and other foreign operatives. Iran’s military investment in Syria, even before the outbreak of the crisis in 2011, makes clear that Tehran does not intend to give up the strategic opportunity that has crossed its path and that it intends to directly strengthen its position in Syria, not only through Assad’s regime.

Iran has short-term and long-term goals in Syria. In the short term, the duration of which depends on the attainment of a political solution in Syria, it intends to continue its military hold over the country, on the pretext that it is part of the forces supervising security in the region. In this, Iran says, its status can be no different than that of Turkey or Russia.

Iran, as opposed to Turkey or the United States, is legitimately present in Syria, having been “invited” by the regime to assist in its defense. As long as this invitation holds, Iran will be considered a legitimate presence there. This position was bolstered on Saturday during a conference in Rome under the title, “Mediterranean Dialogues,” where Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called on countries that were not invited into Syria to leave it. His remarks were directed at the United States. The Iranians and the Russians, on the other hand, are invited to stay.

In the long term, Iran is a partner to the diplomatic process led by Russia and agreements on the security zones. Any solution submitted to the regime, opposition figures and rebels will have to be approved by Iran. This is the first time since the Islamic revolution in which Iran is a partner to international diplomatic moves intended to resolve conflicts in the Middle East – a status it won after it signed the nuclear accord.

Iran can also contribute significantly to resolving the war in Yemen and influence Iraq’s foreign policy. Thus it may be assumed that it will prefer its new strategic status and not put it at risk by a direct clash with Israel, as long as it can show that the attacks in Syria do not harm Iranian forces or installations. This status also strengthens it vis a vis its rival, Saudi Arabia, whose attempts to resolve regional crisis have not borne fruit. Saudi Arabia is not an active partner in arrangements in Syria, the end of the war in Yemen which it initiated is not on the horizon, and neither has the crisis it sparks in Lebanon fared well for the kingdom.

But Iran is not the only country pondering issues of responses. Russia has already made clear to Israel what the red lines are beyond which Israel will not enjoy military freedom of action in Syria. If the reports are true, Russia might consider the latest attack as crossing those lines, since its proximity to Damascus and a strike against a Syrian military base could be interpreted as an expansion of the Israeli conflict front. If it once seemed that Russia turned a blind eye to assaults on weapons convoys intended for Hezbollah or an Israeli response against Syrian targets that had fired in the direction of Israel, Russia might now go as far as to threaten air action to reduce Israel’s freedom of action. It might do this in the same way it threatened action against American or Turkish aircraft operating in Syria without coordinating with Russia. These days, Russia is preoccupied with completion of the diplomatic process and has even stated that the military phase in Syria is over. Another round of talks is expected in Astana, Kazakhstan toward the end of this month, and a summit will subsequently be called in Geneva. Russia, which has been able to establish partial cease-fires throughout Syria, and is leading to a general cease-fire, doesn’t need a new front between Syria and Israel.

Source: https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-1.826328

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Analysis Israel Is in No Hurry to Do the Saudis’ Bidding in Lebanon

Amos Harel — Sun, 12 Nov 2017 14:18:44 +0000

The Israeli army is not about to cross the border despite the Saudis’ anger at Iranian meddling and the Syrian drone that Israel shot down in the north.

The first leader to exploit claims that Saudi Arabia is trying to push Israel into a new military confrontation in Lebanon is also the most devoted reader of Israeli and foreign news reports – Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.

In a speech broadcast Friday on Lebanese television, Nasrallah claimed that the Saudis had declared war on Lebanon and Hezbollah, and warned Israel not to intervene lest it pay a heavy price.

To viewers in Israel, Nasrallah seemed unusually stressed, and his tone sounded almost plaintive. His concerns about future Israeli moves didn’t match his past swaggering declarations in which he described Israeli society as a flimsy “spiderweb” that would collapse under Arab pressure. It seems the crisis created by the Saudis in Lebanon, with the forced resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, caught the Hezbollah chief off guard.

Nasrallah isn’t the only leader who seems to have slid into something now over his head. The Saudi gamble is a big one and there’s no guarantee that the kingdom’s aggressive stance will end in success, despite the enthusiastic support of U.S. President Donald Trump. In a statement, the State Department was much less enthusiastic. It called for Hariri to be restored to his post and warned other countries – namely Iran, but also Saudi

The Washington Post has provided extensive details on Hariri’s resignation; it emerges that Hariri indeed served as a Saudi puppet. The resignation letter was dictated to him at a morning meeting in the royal palace, to which he had been summoned unexpectedly. He was later transferred to a villa in the Ritz-Carlton compound in Riyadh, in which Saudi princes and tycoons are being held following this month’s purge. There, Hariri is under the surveillance of the Saudi security services.

Israel, other than a public verbal assault on Iran a week ago, isn’t commenting on Hariri’s resignation. No official has responded to accusations that this was a Saudi-Israeli move against Iran and Hezbollah. And no steps have been taken to increase vigilance along the northern border, which would have suggested that the Israel Defense Forces was preparing something.

For now, it seems it’s the Saudis who may seek such a scenario, while Israel has no interest in a military confrontation. One should note that Saudi Arabia has counted on Israeli military action twice in the past, first hoping that Israel would attack Iran’s nuclear installations, and then counting on the IDF’s intervention against the Assad regime in the Syrian civil war. Both times it was disappointed, but vigorous Saudi actions are fueling tensions in an arena where Israel and Hezbollah are often only two mutual missteps away from war.

The Saudis’ steps were received with some surprise by Israeli defense officials and with even greater surprise by cabinet members who don’t follow the minutiae of daily developments. The basic regional instability, the number of players involved and the fast pace of events make it hard for analysts to forecast a few steps ahead.

Still, there may be deeper causes for the surprise afflicting the Israeli side, such as the procrastination in defining intelligence priorities and the intense focus in recent years on collecting operational intelligence at the expense of analyzing long-term processes.

The Syrians get bold
On Saturday morning, an Israeli Patriot missile shot down a drone that entered the demilitarized zone, contravening the separation agreement with Syria after the Yom Kippur War. The IDF believes it was a Syrian drone that was shot down only after the hotline with the Russians was used, to verify that it wasn’t a Russian one.

According to initial assessments, the Syrians sent the drone to gather intelligence on Israel and test the rules of the game along the border. This has been a recurring event recently, stemming from the Assad regime’s rising confidence after the stabilization it has achieved in the civil war and after the routing of the Islamic State by the U.S.-led coalition.

In a strong statement, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Israel held the Syrian regime responsible for every firing incident or any infringement of Israeli sovereignty along the border. He called on Assad to restrain all groups operating in his territory, saying that Israel would not allow “the consolidation of a Shi’ite axis in Syria that would constitute a forward position” for Iran.

This follows Israel’s threats to foil Iranian military moves in Syria. It also follows the BBC’s publishing of satellite photos showing, according to Western intelligence agencies, Iran establishing a permanent military base near Damascus.

Meanwhile, at a summit in Vietnam, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin lauded the American-Russian-Jordanian agreement following the partial cease-fire in southern Syria. According to the agreement, there will now be a reduction and later a withdrawal of foreign combatants from the region.

For Israel, this is a positive declaration, but it must be backed by details and action. For now it seems Iran has no intention to leave Syria or withdraw militias linked to it.

Source: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.822185

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