There’s way too much in play to try to address even a fraction of what’s up in the Update.  Let’s just say that we’ll have fewer obnoxious blow-hards in our living rooms since they’ve started dropping like flies.  From that standpoint, it’s been a pretty good week.  Some guy’s wife bowed out, the dude who loves his husband.  It looks as though the elderly Bolshevik is headed for oblivion too, and none too soon.  Maybe we won’t have to listen to, “Medicaya fo aull!” too many more times.   It’s been pathetic.   The Cherokee dominatrix (courtesy Mark Steyn) is gone after having damaged the Bolshevic and destroying miniature billionaire.  May we be spared the extended-arm body-wave for the foreseeable future, savagely shaken hair and all.

I’ve got to share this with you in case you missed it.  I heard it on the radio as I was driving this morning and don’t think it happened at the Town Hall last night, but anyway.  President Trump was talking about the fake Indian and said (paraphrased as accurately as possible), “She’s not a nice person.  She damaged Bernie so badly.  He may never recover.  She destroyed mini-Mike, it was really easy for her.  Really easy.  She’s mean.  The people don’t want somebody mean, they want somebody nice… like me!”  I nearly crashed the car I was laughing so hard.  It’s probably extra hilarious because you can only imagine the reaction of the humorless crowd at the network anchor desks.  They’re probably throwing private fits.  Hope so anyway.

The coronavirus is still a stage 4 panic.  You’d think we’d never seen this kind of thing before.  It’s nasty and it would be good if nobody we know ever gets it.  But it’s not the black plague after all, and the media’s hopes of bringing Trump to his knees will likely not be realized, again.  John Mitchell, our minister in Rocklin, CA told me there’s been a death from it in his neighborhood.  An elderly gentleman who’d been on a cruise ship, he did have underlying health problems.  The Police have ordered neighbors to stay in their homes, and are standing by to chase them back in if they come outside.  Apparently that’s their biggest concern and first priority.  But that’s California for you.  No offense.  I loved it back in the day.

The Turks and the Greeks are at it again. And the reality of the situation blows politically correct sentiments away,  “…it’s easy to lapse into xenophobic language as they try to seal the border.”  The quote is from a yahoo story about Greek residents trying to stop Muslim refugees flooding out of Turkey and into Greece.  It’s only been a few years since millions of “refugees” changed the face of Europe forever.  Now Greek civilians have joined the effort to monitor their border around the clock in the interests of trying to keep the situation from getting any worse.  In the process, they’ve apparently spoken unflatteringly about the invaders, and as far as yahoo news is concerned, that equates to xenophobia.

How dare the Greeks try to defend their border against another onslaught?  They must be “xenophobic!”  (We can only imagine what yahoo might write if they caught one of us using uncomplimentary language in regard to the invasion from the South).

You would have to look back a thousand years and more to recognize the provocations and resulting clashes between Greeks and Turks.  There have been four major wars between the two, dating back to the Ottoman Empire.  The list of disputes and incidents since Greece won its independence in 1832 consumes many pages of explanation.  The bottom line is that Greece is “Christian,” Turkey is Islamic, and the border between the two represents a line of demarcation between the Islamic nations and Europe.

Both have been members of NATO since 1952.  Turkey has free trade with the EU, but despite decades of negotiations has yet to become a full member.  Muslims displaced by Middle Eastern wars and most recently by the Syrian civil war representing 3.6 million people, have flooded into Turkey.  In 2015 during the flood of millions into Europe, the EU-Turkey Joint Actions Plan paid 3 billion euros to Turkey to keep the refugees and prevent them from coming to Europe.

These are the items as stated in the agreement:

—All new irregular migrants crossing from Turkey to the Greek islands as of 20 March 2016 will be returned to Turkey;

—For every Syrian being returned to Turkey from the Greek islands, another Syrian will be resettled to the EU;

—Turkey will take any necessary measures to prevent new sea or land routes for irregular migration opening from Turkey to the EU;

—Once irregular crossings between Turkey and the EU are ending or have been substantially reduced, a Voluntary Humanitarian Admission Scheme will be activated;

—The EU will, in close cooperation with Turkey, further speed up the disbursement of the initially allocated €3 billion under the Facility for Refugees in Turkey. Once these resources are about to be used in full, the EU will mobilize additional funding for the Facility up to an additional €3 billion to the end of 2018;

—The EU and Turkey will work to improve humanitarian conditions inside Syria.

— EU-Turkey Joint Action Plan

But that was then, and this is now.  Turkey’s military intervention in the Syrian civil war in Kurdish controlled Northern Syria displacing another 100,000 civilians and was being characterized as an “invasion.”  President Erdogan of Turkey said the following, speaking at a party gathering, “Hey EU, wake up.  I Say it again.  If you try to frame our operation there (in Syria) as an invasion, our task is simple.  We will open the doors and send 3.6 million migrants to you.

That’s the leverage Erdogan has over the European Union.  If Europe thinks it has it bad now, (and it does) just wait until he opens the floodgates.

Erdogan is involved in talks with Russia in order to try to prevent all-out war.  Their armies have clashed, with Russia backing Syrian President Assad, and the result has been more displaced Syrians coming to Turkey.  The “deal” listed above no longer holds sway as far as Erdogan is concerned.  He doesn’t approve of the Greek civilian actions to guard the border and accuses them of having killed or wounded well over 100, which the Greeks deny.  Erdogan has reportedly sent units to the scene, and that might not go well.  Meanwhile, we’ll have a great Sabbath!

Mark

Source: http://www.intercontinentalcog.org/index.php

The post Weekly Update from Mark Armstrong – 6 March 2020 first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

LONDON – German Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to travel to Moscow Saturday for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The meeting will likely focus on the Iran crisis, with both Germany and Russia calling for de-escalation following the U.S. targeted killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and the retaliatory airstrikes by Tehran on Western military bases in Iraq.

The Ukraine conflict is also on the agenda, alongside the future of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline running from Russia to Germany, amid strong opposition from the United States.

Putin will host Merkel shortly after returning from a trip to the Middle East this week. The Russian president made a rare trip to Damascus, Syria Tuesday, only his second visit since Russia intervened in 2015 to aid President Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s civil war. Iran and its proxies have also provided significant support to Assad’s forces.

With its growing entanglement in Middle Eastern affairs, Russia is trying to avert the outbreak of a new conflict in Iran, says analyst Andrew Foxall of policy analyst group The Henry Jackson Society.“

Iran presents President Putin with the opportunity to present himself as a peacemaker rather than a ‘peace-breaker,’” Foxall says. “And in that sense his interests are very firmly aligned with Chancellor Merkel as they both believe in the JCPOA (the 2015 Iran nuclear deal); they both believe that discussion and debate are far more preferable than the conflict and confrontation that is currently taking place between Tehran and Washington.”

Europe and Russia are trying to keep the JCPOA alive. President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the deal in 2018, and says the agreement is effectively dead.“

The time has come for the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia, and China to recognize this reality,” President Trump said Wednesday. “They must now break away from the remnants of the Iran deal.”

The U.S. and Germany also disagree sharply on Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline under construction from Russia to Germany beneath the Baltic Sea. Washington has imposed sanctions on companies involved in the project, to the dismay of Berlin and Moscow.

“Nord Stream 2 is designed to drive a single-source gas artery deep into Europe, and a stake through the heart of European stability and security,” then-U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry said during a trip to Lithuania in October. “It would increase Russia’s leverage over Europe’s foreign policy and Europe’s vulnerability to a supply disruption,” he added.

Ukraine is the traditional hub for the transit of Russian gas to Europe and risks losing valuable transit fees. The project has strategic as well as economic value for Russia, argues analyst Foxall.“

What Russia has sought to do over the past few years, if not longer, is drive a wedge in the transatlantic relationship using any tool or instrument that it can identify and Nord Stream 2 does provide Russia with precisely that sort of tool. Nord Stream 2 will undoubtedly be discussed in Moscow and will provide an opportunity for both Merkel and Putin to re-commit themselves to the project and again to argue that it does not undermine European energy security,” Foxall told VOA.

The EU imposed sanctions on Russia following the 2014 forceful annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine. Some European states, including Italy and Hungary, are pushing for an end to the sanctions. “If he is going to find a weak link from the European Union, it seems to me unlikely that that will be Germany and Chancellor Merkel, who has been at the forefront of arguing for those sanctions,” notes Foxall.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has taken a different line with Moscow to the more hawkish approach of his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, agreeing to a series of prisoner exchanges in recent weeks. Germany’s Merkel has offered strong support and Europe hopes it may be the first step in a wider deal to end the Ukraine conflict.

With tensions higher than at any time since the Cold War, her meeting with Putin will be watched closely for any hint of change in East-West relations.

The post Germany’s Merkel Heads to Moscow Amid Heightened Global Tensions first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

The Israeli Air Force recently destroyed an IRGC HQ.

Key point: Israel is stepping up its attacks on Iran in Syria.

On November 19, four unguided artillery rockets arced out from Syrian territory into Israeli airspace in northern Galilee in the Golan Heights. These were detected and promptly destroyed by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system.

What prompted this ineffectual attack from Iranian forces?

Like the Ouroboros, the snake that is forever preoccupied devouring its own tail, the side-show war between Israel and Iranian forces in Syria seemingly stretches out into an infinite series of violent affronts repaid in kind.

Since 2013, Iran has built up a military presence in Syria not only to combat rebels opposing the Syrian government under Bashar al-Assad but to build up a military infrastructure that could pressure Israel, including by transferring arms to proxies like Hezbollah. Over that same period of time, Israel has retaliated with hundreds of airstrikes blasting the Iranian bases.

For example, in August, Israel warplanes killed two people in an attack described as preempting a scheme to deploy a swarm of drones to attack targets in Israel.

Several commentators have connected the November 19 rocket attack is being a response to Israel’s assassinated Bahaa Abu al-Ata, the commander of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, with a surprise airstrike in Gaza on November 12. The same day, Syria reported a reported missile attack on the home of another PIL leader living in Damascus named Akram al-Ajouri, killing his son and one bystander.

Palestinians then responded by launching hundreds of rockets at Israeli targets, and the IDF retaliated against that with more airstrikes in a surge of fighting that lasted for two days.

Thus, Israel’s retaliation for the November 19 rocket attack was inevitable. However, its scale and violence took observers by surprise.

Starting around 1:20 AM local time on February 20, Syrian radars reportedly lit up as Israeli jets approaching from the Golan Heights and through Lebanese airspace released over a dozen precision-guided missiles at targets in Syria. Israel insists it warned Syrian air defenses not to open fire.

As usual, Syria’s air defenses failed to stop the attack. In this remarkable video posted to social media, you can see the bright flashes of Syrian missiles surging into the sky in an effort to repel the Israeli assault. Terrifyingly, early in the video at least two of the missiles appear to plunge back into the city and explode after initial lift-off, perhaps confused by countermeasures or having been launched with too little fore-warning.

Also, as usual, the government’s SANA news agency claimed air defense had shot down most (eleven out of eighteen) of the missiles. It described the Israeli attack as being launched a half-dozen jets approaching from Marjyoun, Lebanon, roughly thirty-five miles west of Damascus.

The wave of destruction that struck twenty targets in Mezze, Syria and Damascus International Airport suggests otherwise.

The most prominent target struck was a huge seven-story building dubbed the ‘Glass House’ at Damascus International Airport, used for years as the command-and-control center for Iranian Revoutionary Guard Corps forces in Syria. The large-scale intervention Qud Force and Hezbollah fighters in Syria in 2013 undoubtedly saved Bashar al-Assad’s government well before Russia’s intervention secured its position in 2015.

Post-strike satellite imagery shows the attack caused the top two stories of the building’s northeastern-wing to collapse in upon itself. According to intelligence firm ImageSat, these housed the Quds Force’s intelligence unit. A covered parking lot outside the headquarters was also demolished.

In fact, the Iranian presence at the Glass House had become so well known that it’s believed the IRGC had actually withdrawn much of its staff to a more discreet location earlier this year.

Two buildings part of a second Iranian headquarters at al-Mazzeh airport were almost completely destroyed, with post-strike imagery showing only rubble and rescue vehicles surrounding the site, presumably searching for survivors.

Quds Force arms depots in the suburbs of Ksweh and Qudsaya were also struck according to a report by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Israeli jets also targeted Syrian air defenses after they opened fire, destroying a half-dozen Syrian missile batteries—but not, they emphasized, the more advanced S-300 batteries which may have been hosting Russian personnel.

Indeed, it’s quite possible Syria’s two operational S-300 battalions did not engage the Israeli jets at all, despite years of Israeli anxiety surrounding Syria’s potential acquisition of the system. The IDF claims it had reported the strikes in advance with Russia. There are indications Russia may be forestalling the S-300s use against Israel as part of mutual accommodation between Putin and Netanyahu. Another issue is that the S-300 is optimized for medium- to long-range and altitude interception, but Israeli use of stealth jets or stand-off range missiles may have reduced the detection range of the attack below those thresholds.

Ultimately, the Observatory reported twenty-three were killed in the attack, including five Syrian soldiers and sixteen foreigners (likely Iranians). Reportedly residential suburbs near Damascus suffered collateral damage which killed two civilians and injured two to four more. Several children were reportedly injured by an exploding air defense missile.

Israeli officials subsequently told the Jerusalem Post the strikes were intentionally disproportionate in response.

“We are changing the rules. Even when it comes to almost negligible attacks, whose impact is small, we are changing the equation, and our retaliatory attack will be widespread. When I looked at the south, when a small number of rockets are fired and we respond with a small retaliatory attack, then that sort of situation gets to be acceptable. We have to strike harshly [in response] to all attacks.”

Israeli defense minister Naftali Bennett described Iran as an octopus, threatening that “Wherever you send those octopus arms, we will hack them off.” He also warned they might consider attacking the Octopus’ ‘head’—ie, Tehran—if the attacks continue.

Indeed, domestic factors in Iran and Israel may be incentivizing both to escalate conflict with each other.

Iran is currently consumed in riots. Pro-government militias have killed a hundred to two hundred Iranians, and Tehran has instituted a country-wide blackout of the Internet, perhaps sensing a genuine threat to its hold on power.

Meanwhile in Israel, presiding Israeli president Benjamin Nethanyahu has been indicted under serious corruption charges even as he wheels and deals in an effort to form a governing coalition in the wake of an election with inconclusive results.

In such a context, displays of outward toughness to foreign enemies may become more attractive to divert public attention and generate favorable media coverage.

Given the ouroboros of endless retaliation, nobody expects the latest Israeli attack to have put a definite cork in the proxy war between Israel and Iran that has ranged for the last six years.

As conflict intelligence website T-intell.com put it succinctly: “Given the high-number of IRGC casualties and magnitude of the attack, Iran is expected to retaliate militarily against Israel.”

Sébastien Roblin holds a master’s degree in Conflict Resolution from Georgetown University and served as a university instructor for the Peace Corps in China. He has also worked in education, editing, and refugee resettlement in France and the United States. 

Source:  https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/youre-dead-israel-proving-iranian-troops-are-not-safe-syria-104787

The post You’re Dead: Israel Is Proving That Iranian Troops Are Not Safe In Syria first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

As the Syrian government is now in full control of most parts of the war-torn country, the role of Iran, as a main ally of President Bashar al-Assad, appears to be undergoing significant change.

On Aug. 1, the Russian president’s special envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, said Iranian forces, together with their allied Shiite groups, had pulled back from southwestern Syria to a distance of 85 kilometers (53 miles) from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. “The Iranians withdrew and the Shiite formations are not there,” said Lavrentiev, underlining that the heavy weapons in the hands of those forces have also been withdrawn beyond the same distance.

Indeed, the move came against the backdrop of frequent calls by Israeli officials for Iran’s complete withdrawal from Syria, claiming that Iran’s presence poses a direct threat against the security and interests of Israel. As such, Lavrentiev’s remarks could lead us to the question of whether the recent development is indicating Iran’s imminent exit from other parts of Syria as well, or whether it’s just a tactical move aimed at readjusting Iran’s Syrian strategy with regard to the rapidly changing equations on the military and political fronts.

Reviewing the wider scene of recent developments regarding the Syrian crisis, it could be said that Iran’s withdrawal from southern Syria has been caused by two sets of military and political factors. First of all, the news about Iran’s withdrawal from the south came just one day after the successful end of the Syrian army’s six-week military campaign to recapture the southwestern region bordering the Golan Heights. Almost three weeks earlier, on July 12, the army had managed to retake the main rebel stronghold in that area, Daraa, known as the “birthplace of the revolt” against Assad in 2011.

As such, it could be said that in the current situation, the southern areas are not a priority anymore for the Syrian army and its allies in military terms and the next phases of massive military operations in Syria are expected to include areas in the northern and eastern parts of the country that are still under the control of armed groups. In a recent interview, Lavrentiev directly pointed to this issue, saying three areas in Syria have yet to be targeted by Syrian army operations. He said, “Those areas include Idlib [in the northwest], al-Rakban camp in al-Tanf area [in the east], as well as the areas under Kurdish control close to the Iraq-Syria border.”

Pro-Iran forces started to evacuate the southern areas when the mission there was accomplished and their presence was no longer vital in determining the military equations on the ground. In a broader framework, it could be said that the pullback was even necessary in order for the Syrian government to consolidate its positions in the south. In other words, as the presence of Iran and its allied forces in the southern parts of Syria has always been used by the Israelis as a reason to conduct strikes against various positions inside Syria, the continuation of the Iranian presence there would mean that the Israeli strikes would continue as well, forcing Assad to deal with a persistent headache that would tie his hands in planning further military moves elsewhere in the country.

Meanwhile, on the political front, it seems that an important factor that has caused Iran to limit the scope of its active military presence in Syria is Russia’s changing diplomatic role regarding the Syrian crisis. On the one hand, while Russia appears determined to continue playing a balancing role between Iranian and Israeli interests in Syria, it seems that the Russians have shifted toward using a more coercive approach in this regard. On July 30, Russia’s ambassador to Tel Aviv, Anatoly Viktorov, adopted a controversial stance on the issue, saying that while “Russia cannot compel Iranian forces to quit Syria,” it could “equally do nothing to prevent Israeli military strikes against Iranian forces.” The remarks clearly meant that Moscow is unable to prevent an open confrontation between Iran and Israel in Syria unless Tehran and Tel Aviv come to a middle ground concerning their activities in the country. Limiting the scope of Iran’s activities in exchange for the halt of Israeli strikes seems to be that middle ground agreed to by both sides in order to prevent a devastating escalation.

On the other hand, after the July 16 summit between the presidents of Russia and the United States in Helsinki, in which possible cooperation between the two sides in Syria was discussed, among other issues, Moscow has increased its diplomatic pressures on Washington to limit its military role in the Arab country. On Aug. 3, Col. Gen. Sergei Rudskoyof the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces called on the United States to close down its military base in al-Tanf, saying the base has become a center for harboring Islamic State (IS) terrorists. As Washington has openly declared that its main goal in Syria currently is to counter Iran’s growing influence, limiting Iran’s presence in the country could be Russia’s selling point to compel the Americans to limit their own presence. As the US military presence in Syria is perceived by both Tehran and Moscow as a threat to their longer-term interests, it’s hard to believe the notion that Iran has been reluctant to provide Russia with an additional diplomatic asset to deal with this common challenge.

Finally, it seems that Iran itself is in a process of redefining its role in Syria, which has mostly been derived from the impression that the end of the war is close and now is a time to focus on safeguarding Iran’s interests through political and diplomatic measures. In this vein, Iran is shifting its strategy from playing an active military role toward more actively participating in the diplomatic frameworks regarding Syria. Hosting the upcoming summitof Astana partners, which is due to be held in Tehran in September, could be interpreted as a sign to this end. Iran’s active participation in the establishment of Syria’s Constitutional Committee, which is tasked with developing a new constitution for the country, is another sign of Iran’s changing approach.

All in all, it could be said that the recent withdrawal of Iranian and pro-Iran forces from southern Syria has more to do with Iran updating its Syria strategy and adapting it to be in line with the new political and military developments, rather than a decision to leave Syria due to Russian or Israeli pressures.

Hamidreza Azizi is an assistant professor of regional studies at Shahid Beheshti University and a member of the scientific board at the Iran and Eurasia Studies Institute (IRAS) in Tehran. On Twitter: @HamidRezaAz

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Source: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/08/iran-syria-golan-heights-russia-israel-shiite-groups-us.html

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Iran’s allies are mulling limitations on Revolutionary Guard activity in Syrian territory, and may have already begun blocking Iranian access to military facilities in the hopes of avoiding future confrontations with Israel.

Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, suggested Monday afternoon that his country would accept Israel’s demand that Iranian forces not occupy positions close to the Israeli border.

According to Russia’s RIA outlet, Lavrov said during a news conference in Moscow that only Syrian forces should be deployed along Syria’s southern border, suggesting the Putin government is prepared to back Israeli demands that Iranian and Iranian-backed forces be kept away from the Israeli frontier.

“Of course, the withdrawal of all non-Syrian forces must be carried out on a mutual basis, this should be a two-way street,” Lavrov added.

“The result of this work which should continue and is continuing should be a situation when representatives of the Syrian Arab Republic’s army stand at Syria’s border with Israel.”

On Sunday, the Haaretz daily reported that the Kremlin is considering the possibility of requiring that Tehran remove its forces from Israel’s northern border, and limit its deployment of military assets in Syria to areas at least 37 miles from the Israeli frontier.

According to the report, Russian officials are prepared to pressure Iran to pull back its forces away from Israel’s border as part of talks with Israeli officials in the hopes of avoiding confrontations between its military and Israel’s, and to shield the Assad regime from a possibly destabilizing war with the Jewish state.

Lebanese sources claim that Israeli and Russian fighter jets were involved in an “incident” over the skies of Lebanon early Monday morning, Channel 2 reported.

According to Lebanese media outlets, Israel Air Force jets were met by Russian Su-34 fighters over Lebanon and were forced to return to Israeli airspace. The IDF has refused to confirm the report.

Russian forces stationed in Syria reportedly scrambled the jets in an attempt to block IAF activity in the area.

Israel recently vowed to take action against Iranian weapon transfers in Syria and Lebanon, as well as the manufacture of missiles in Iranian-affiliated facilities in Lebanon.

While Russian officials mull limits on Iranian deployments near the Israeli border, sources within Syria claim that the Assad regime has already imposed its own limitations on Iranian access to Syrian military facilities, following a series of targeted strikes on sites used by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in Syria.

The anti-Assad Zaman al-Wasl outlet reported Monday that in light of recent Israeli military actions against Iranian forces operating out of Syria, the Assad regime has removed Iranian-aligned forces from some of its bases and barred Iran from massing arms at Syrian facilities.

Source: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/246565

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ARTICLE SUMMARY

The Pentagon’s top commander in the Middle East told lawmakers today that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s gains in the yearslong civil war will bolster Iran’s ability to frustrate US aims in the region.

 REUTERS/Omar Sanadiki

A Syrian army soldier is seen securing Syrian Arab Red Crescent trucks carrying aid at the entrance of Wafideen camp in Damascus, Syria, March 5, 2018.

America’s top military commander in the Middle East told Congress today that President Bashar al-Assad’s recent gains in the Syrian civil war will enhance Iran’s ability to support proxy groups in the region.

Chief of US Central Command Joseph Votel told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the intervention by Iran and Russia has proven decisive in bolstering the embattled Syrian leader. Assad appears on the verge of regaining opposition-held holdouts in Idlib province and the Damascus suburbs.

“From a civil war standpoint, it would appear that the regime is ascendant here,” Votel told Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. “It means that we will contend with the influence of Iran.”

Votel did not disagree with the senator’s characterization that Assad’s forces had “won” the war with the help of Iran and Russia.

Iran is believed to have as many as 125,000 troops and Shiite-backed proxy forces in Syria under the watch of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qasem Soleimani. That includes 8,000 Hezbollah fighters in the Middle Euphrates River Valley, the centerpiece of the US-backed battle against the Islamic State (IS).

At the conclusion of the conflict, Votel told lawmakers, “Iran could be in a position where they could support Lebanese Hezbollah better.”

Speaking at Stanford University in January, ousted Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called for an open-ended US presence in Syria to counter Iran. He also insisted that the United States is seeking a political transition away from Assad.

It’s not clear if CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who President Donald Trump named as Tillerson’s successor today, will aim to continue the policy, and Votel provided no clarity today on whether US officials still sought Assad’s dismissal. “I don’t know that that’s our particular policy at this point,” he said.

“Well, if you don’t know, I doubt if anybody knows, because this is your job, to take care of this part of the world,” Graham responded. The South Carolina Republican recently visited Jordan and Israel and wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed on March 12 decrying the lack of a “coherent strategy” to deal with Iran’s influence in Iraq and Syria. Graham also called for no-fly zones within Syria to allow the return of refugees and the continuation of efforts to train and equip Syrian rebel forces.

Some 2,000 US troops remain in Syria, officially, to train rebel forces to fight remnants of IS. The Pentagon, however, appears to be curtailing the use of Incirlik Air Base in nearby Turkey to provide air support in the fight against the militant group. The Defense Department has asked for $300 million to train Syrian fighters, including the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in the fiscal year that begins in October, a 40% cut from the current year’s request.

Though US forces have tried to stay out of the wider war, special operations forces recently repelled a pro-Assad attack on the US-backed SDF near oil fields in territory once held by IS. Votel said he didn’t think that rebel forces in Ghouta and Idlib could topple Assad within the next year.

As pro-Assad forces continue to hit the rebel-held Damascus suburb of eastern Ghouta with bombs and chlorine gas, the Pentagon is discouraging Trump from launching military operations to try to stem the humanitarian crisis. Trump has mentioned eastern Ghouta in recent calls with US allies, including French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Theresa May and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

“The best way of doing this is through political and diplomatic channels,” Votel said.

Yet as the White House is set to formulate a tougher policy on Iran, with Pompeo replacing Tillerson at the State Department, the Pentagon is carefully watching Trump’s May 12 deadline to determine whether the United States will continue suspending sanctions as called for under the 2015 nuclear deal. Last fall, US Defense Secretary James Mattis called on the United States to remain in the deal, and Votel appeared to reiterate that position in testifying before lawmakers today.

The nuclear agreement “addresses one of the principal threats that we deal with from Iran,” Votel said. If the deal ends and Iran resumes prohibited nuclear activities, the Middle East commander said, the United States will need “another way” to deal with the threat.

Jack Detsch is Al-Monitor’s Pentagon correspondent. Based in Washington, Detsch examines US-Middle East relations through the lens of the Defense Department. Detsch previously covered cybersecurity for Passcode, the Christian Science Monitor’s project on security and privacy in the Digital Age. Detsch also served as editorial assistant at The Diplomat Magazine and worked for NPR-affiliated stations in San Francisco. On Twitter: @JackDetsch_ALM, Email: jdetsch@al-monitor.com.

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Source: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/03/pentagon-braces-emboldened-iran-syria-gains.html

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