A rising chorus of analysts now describe China as a “peaking power”—one that might take greater risks to revise the international order before its strategic window of opportunity closes. They cite the country’s aging population, slowing economy, and hostile external environment as evidence that time is no longer on China’s side. The “fear of decline,” they argue, could lead China to act sooner rather than later to solidify its position in East Asia, with potentially catastrophic consequences.

While there is a compelling case to be made about the downward trajectory of China’s power, it is difficult to argue that Chinese leaders perceive themselves to be running short on time. In recent years, the actions and rhetoric of the Chinese government reveal little doubt about how it sees the future. Moreover, Beijing appears increasingly bearish on the long-term prospects of the United States, which Chinese President Xi Jinping has described as the “greatest threat to China’s development and security.”

Behind closed doors, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders may well express concerns about China’s mounting internal and external challenges. But the triumphant stories Chinese leaders tell the party bureaucracy and the general public play a central role in shaping not only the country’s worldview but also its actions.

U.S. policymakers and scholars should not dismiss Chinese optimism as mere propaganda, despite how far removed it may be from reality. Perceptions of Beijing’s relative power, in addition to raw material capabilities, will affect whether or not China resorts to war in the coming decade.

The CCP is aware of the myriad challenges Beijing faces, but it believes its top-down system is capable of handling today’s complex environment. The party trusts that it can marshal the resources necessary to eradicate poverty, redress inequality, and drive innovation, as well as respond to major global trends: deglobalization, climate change, technological disruption, and shifts in the international balance of power.

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, Beijing has grown more confident in its economic and political system. After an initial lapse, the party’s grassroots apparatus kicked into gear, and the CCP hailed its success in stamping out the virus just as it began spreading throughout much of the world. Sustained growth in 2020 further reinforced China’s confidence in its state-led development model. Despite recent headwinds in the energy and property sectors, Chinese economists continue to express faith that the country will not only escape the middle-income trap by 2035 but also become a fully developed nation by midcentury.

More recently, Chinese officials have doubled down on the unique aspects of their system, instituting a flurry of new regulations for the private sector. There is hope that these clampdowns will boost competitiveness by diverting resources away from “unproductive” sectors—such as real estate, e-commerce, and online gaming—toward the “real economy,” which Xi argues is based on manufacturing. The government has also instituted policies to ease financial burdens on working families in the hope of mitigating demographic pressures. In short, the CCP is confident, at least in public, that its top-down leadership can promote “common prosperity” and guide the country through unforeseen headwinds.

The party’s conviction derives, in part, from what China’s 14th Five-Year Plan describes as its “institutional superiority,” “administrative efficiency,” and “social stability.” Xi has lauded China’s “whole-process people’s democracy,” arguing that it promotes stability and good governance—key elements of comprehensive national power. The recently released 6th Plenum Communique, like Xi’s report at the 19th Party Congress, depicts China on an inevitable path to national rejuvenation under the CCP’s central leadership.

Of course, it’s difficult to distinguish genuine enthusiasm for the project from politically mandatory expressions of support—especially in an era when the already limited space for public discourse in China has radically shrunk. But from the party’s perspective, closing those discussions is also a necessary step forward.

Since coming to power, Xi has seen Western political influence as a risk, going so far as to warn against the infiltration of “universal values” such as constitutionalism, free speech, and a free press. In the intervening period, the party’s use of propaganda and tools of digital authoritarianism to institute crackdowns have demonstrated its ability to engineer political goals from the top down. While foreign observers often view such campaigns as signs of weakness or insecurity, the CCP views them as crucial levers through which to place China on a better path forward.

Internationally, despite deteriorating ties with developed democracies, Chinese perceptions of Beijing’s image remain elevated. This is, in part, the result of China’s decades-long campaign to bolster ties with developing countries through “partnership diplomacy” and programs such as the Belt and Road Initiative. Moreover, Chinese leaders believe U.S. alliances to be “outdated” relics of the Cold War that are “bound to fail” in slowing China’s rise. And during a time of rising protectionism in the United States, Xi continues to advocate for globalization.

In the military field, Chinese leaders maintain they are closing the capability gap with the United States, despite Beijing’s comparably modest defense budget. China now boasts more naval vessels than the United States, a state-of-the-art ballistic missile arsenal, and advanced hypersonic missiles, a capability that the U.S. military currently lacks. Although Washington maintains an advantage in its quantity of aircraft carriers, People’s Liberation Army officials believe Beijing’s asymmetric carrier killer capacity could give it the upper hand in a shooting war off China’s shores. Over the coming decades, Chinese leaders are confident they will achieve a “world-class” military through leapfrog modernization.

In short, despite the many challenges China faces—domestic and international—the CCP believes in the efficacy of its system. There is little evidence to suggest that China views itself as a declining power, making it less likely that Chinese leaders will embark on risky military campaigns to exploit a shrinking window of opportunity.

There exists, conversely, a trove of documents detailing the party’s belief in the ongoing diminution of U.S. power. The common refrain “The East is rising and the West is declining” has become tinged with an air of inevitability. America watchers in China have identified several factors, including rising debt, racial and wealth inequality, and rampant political polarization, that they believe will undermine U.S. stability and imperil Washington’s primacy.

In the aftermath of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, Chinese leaders began recognizing major flaws in the U.S. economic system, so much so that some believed the shock would lead to an immediate U.S. collapse. Although such dire predictions did not pan out, Chinese officials remain skeptical about the U.S. economic model, especially in light of pandemic-induced instability and widening inequality.

In a recent article, one researcher at the Central Party School argued that the United States’ response to the pandemic reflected a “crisis of capitalism” on par with the challenges of the global war on terrorism and the Great Recession. Even the U.S. policy response to COVID-19 was seen to inflate asset bubbles and funnel resources toward speculative investments in companies such as GameStop. In September, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, Yi Gang, took aim at the deficiencies of U.S. monetary policy, arguing that “the long-term deployment of asset purchases could harm market functions, promote fiscal monetization, and damage the reputation of central banks.” Finally, Chinese scholars have taken note of the “hollowing out of the American industrial base.” Some doubt that Washington’s renewed focus on industrial policy will allow advanced manufacturing in the United States to remain competitive with that in China, whose share of global industrial output is nearly double the United States’.

Perhaps more significant than Beijing’s perception of U.S. economic problems, Chinese leaders see the U.S. political system as ill-equipped to provide public goods and ensure long-term social stability. Donald Trump’s presidency confirmed the narrative that liberal democracies are liable to elevate incompetent leaders and exacerbate social divisions. These views did not recede after Joe Biden’s electoral victory, given persistent gridlock in Washington. Following an important government meeting last week, one CCP spokesperson played up the ongoing “problems in Western democracy.” America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, finally, reinforced the view that the sun is setting on “U.S. hegemony.”

It is quite possible that China’s relative power could peak in the coming decade. Indeed, the recent spate of power outages, loan defaults, and clampdowns on the private sector portend a difficult period to come. Yet Beijing has defied bleak expectations in the past and could do so again. More importantly, forecasts about Chinese militarism, based on assessments of material capabilities, must account for China’s views of itself. The scholar Graham Allison reminds us in Destined for War that “structural realities are not the whole story. Objective conditions have to be perceived by human beings.”

For the time being, the evidence suggests that the CCP is confident in itself and its future and that it views the United States as a declining power facing manifold problems. There is a real possibility that overconfidence, rather than the fear of decline, could fuel Chinese military adventurism in the years ahead. Only time will tell whether time is on China’s side.

Nathaniel Sher is a policy analyst based in Washington, D.C. Twitter: @nathaniel_sher

Sam Bresnick is a writer and editor based in Washington, D.C. Twitter: @SamBresnick

Source: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/21/the-chinese-communist-party-still-thinks-it-owns-the-future/

The post The Chinese Communist Party Still Thinks It Owns the Future first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

The heroes of the deep state (you know many of their names) are in life-changing legal trouble for having tried to overthrow the Presidency. It’s proven in the clearest terms by official reports of inspectors general, by released, formerly classified private testimony, and is available to those that know where to look. But the mainstream media is NOT the place to look. Why? As we’ve said before in numerous letters and weekly updates, they were in on it. They were promoting the overthrow, the impeachment, and every effort to make the masses HATE the President with all the passion they can muster.

They’re not through. They’re doing it right now as you read this. They’re playing the video and expressing their disgust at the police killing of George Floyd, over and over and over again. They tell you to, “Open your eyes, America.” It’s “systemic racism.” It’s evil capitalism which is inherently racist according to the daily propaganda.

They didn’t need to tell us to be disgusted and angry. We couldn’t even watch the whole video of that slow-motion, utterly unnecessary killing, with other police officers standing around with nothing better to do than loiter. IT OUTRAGED EVERY AMERICAN. They didn’t need to loot and burn everything they could get their hands on, beat and kill police officers, and try to burn down the White House in order that we understand. We already understood.

It’s being played as if this is the end game, and it might be if things are not immediately brought under control. This is quite a spectacle, not only for those of us who love the U. S. and the freedom bequeathed to us at God’s inspiration. From the standpoint of antifa, black lives matter, and most importantly the deep state, the United States must be overthrown NOW. They think they’ve got the upper hand, and every nation around the world is now wondering if this is the end of the USA.

The mainstream media, in league with the deep state, is all in. Evidence has come out that the effort to destroy the Trump Presidency was coordinated. There was collusion all right, but not the “collusion” they pushed into American living rooms for three years. It all fell apart. Mueller failed spectacularly, and the lies that had been spewed by the deep state and the media have been exposed in hearings, in the sham-impeachment, and by several extraneous sources, “fact-checked” or banned by the social media giants.

Most interested observers may still not know that the heroes of the deep state and the plot to destroy the Trump Presidency were saying one thing under oath, where it mattered from a legal standpoint, but were claiming to have evidence of “Russian collusion” every night on all the mainstream networks, and quoted under headlines designed to deceive the public into believing that Donald Trump, Michael Flynn, and ALL CONSERVATIVE THINKERS were aiding and abetting “RUSSIA.” It was a ridiculous lie, and they knew it. But these wretched TV anchors with their hooded eyes and angry demeanors claimed to know it to be the truth. They criticized and demeaned all who did not believe them. They called the truth a conspiracy theory as it came out. They’re still doing it. It’s a non-stop push, and it’s getting even worse going forward.

The big-name heroes of the deep state are in deep trouble of the legal variety. If the rule of law survives, if their culpability is ever adjudicated by the standards of justice that define our system, they’re going down in the most serious of terms. They’ve committed actions punishable by either life in prison or the DEATH PENALTY under American law.

This is for all the chips. If law and order survive in the United States, they’re finished! That’s why they’re trying to destroy the United States right now. And they think they’ve got the upper hand. The media personalities may bear legal risk, as they were up to their ears in one coup attempt after another. They have to call it a “conspiracy theory” because they are involved! That’s the explanation for the inexplicable.

Source: https://www.garnertedarmstrong.org/the-explanation-for-u-s-anarchy/

The post The Explanation for U. S. ANARCHY first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

    You obviously don’t need to find out the details of rioting, looting, and arson, as it’s playing out LIVE wherever you look. But the truth behind this anarchy is another matter. There are powerful individuals, institutions, and maybe most important of all, media outlets that are working together to foment an overthrow of America. They desperately need to overthrow the presidency, the economy, and law and order in the United States because they’ve been exposed. It’s not like we didn’t know what they’d done nearly three years ago. We did and said as much. But the mainstream media has not gone anywhere near the truth. If you can stand it, take a look at the mainstream media. They’re explaining that what we’re seeing in all the looting and burning is righteous indignation. It’s not stealing, they explain, but “symbolic taking.” It’s reparations by force. Don’t you believe it.

The heroes of the deep state (you know many of their names) are in life-changing legal trouble for having tried to overthrow the Presidency. It’s proven in the clearest terms by official reports of inspectors general, by released, formerly classified private testimony, and is available to those that know where to look. But the mainstream media is NOT the place to look. Why? As we’ve said before in numerous letters and weekly updates, they were in on it. They were promoting the overthrow, the impeachment, and every effort to make the masses HATE the President with all the passion they can muster.

They’re not through. They’re doing it right now as you read this. They’re playing the video and expressing their disgust at the police killing of George Floyd, over and over and over again. They tell you to, “Open your eyes, America.” It’s “systemic racism.” It’s evil capitalism which is inherently racist according to the daily propaganda.

They didn’t need to tell us to be disgusted and angry. We couldn’t even watch the whole video of that slow-motion, utterly unnecessary killing, with other police officers standing around with nothing better to do than loiter. IT OUTRAGED EVERY AMERICAN. They didn’t need to loot and burn everything they could get their hands on, beat and kill police officers, and try to burn down the White House in order that we understand. We already understood.

It’s being played as if this is the end game, and it might be if things are not immediately brought under control. This is quite a spectacle, not only for those of us who love the U. S. and the freedom bequeathed to us at God’s inspiration. From the standpoint of antifa, black lives matter, and most importantly the deep state, the United States must be overthrown NOW. They think they’ve got the upper hand, and every nation around the world is now wondering if this is the end of the USA.

The mainstream media, in league with the deep state, is all in. Evidence has come out that the effort to destroy the Trump Presidency was coordinated. There was collusion all right, but not the “collusion” they pushed into American living rooms for three years. It all fell apart. Mueller failed spectacularly, and the lies that had been spewed by the deep state and the media have been exposed in hearings, in the sham-impeachment, and by several extraneous sources, “fact-checked” or banned by the social media giants.

Most interested observers may still not know that the heroes of the deep state and the plot to destroy the Trump Presidency were saying one thing under oath, where it mattered from a legal standpoint, but we’re claiming to have evidence of “Russian collusion” every night on all the mainstream networks, and quoted under headlines designed to deceive the public into believing that Donald Trump, Michael Flynn, and ALL CONSERVATIVE THINKERS were aiding and abetting “RUSSIA.” It was a ridiculous lie, and they knew it. But these wretched TV anchors with their hooded eyes and angry demeanors claimed to know it to be the truth. They criticized and demeaned all who did not believe them. They called the truth a conspiracy theory as it came out. They’re still doing it. It’s a non-stop push, and it’s getting even worse going forward.

The big-name heroes of the deep state are in deep trouble of the legal variety. If the rule of law survives, if their culpability is ever adjudicated by the standards of justice that define our system, they’re going down in the most serious of terms. They’ve committed actions punishable by either life in prison or the DEATH PENALTY under American law.

This is for all the chips. If law and order survive in the United States, they’re finished! That’s why they’re trying to destroy the United States right now. And they think they’ve got the upper hand. The media personalities may bear legal risk, as they were up to their ears in one coup attempt after another. They have to call it a “conspiracy theory” because they are involved! That’s the explanation for the inexplicable.

Mark

The post Weekly Update by Mark Armstrong – 29 May 2020 first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

The post Hong Kong protests: Weekend clashes, weekday capitalism first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

According to a Gallup poll published Monday, a majority of Democrats no longer hold a positive view of capitalism, while nearly 60 percent of them feel good about socialism. More than 70 percent of Republicans, on the other hand, see capitalism positively, while only 16 percent of them have a positive view of socialism.

The positive view of socialism among Democrats, and those who lean Democrat, actually dropped a point from 58 percent in 2016. But in those same two years, positive feelings about capitalism plummetted from 56 to 47 percent.

Faith in the invisible hand of the market weakened most among young Americans. While 57 percent of those between ages 18 and 29 viewed capitalism positively in 2016, only 45 percent felt the same way in 2018.

Gallup’s results reflect what many analysts and pundits have identified as a shift toward socialism within the Democratic Party. The success of self-identified socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, and the upset victory of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – a member of the Democratic Socialists of America – over incumbent Rep. Joe Crowley, R-N.Y., are often cited as evidence of that shift.

Our view: Trump and Republicans can count on Democrats in midterm elections

More: Today’s kids love socialism — but it’s not because of their radical professors

“It’s possible that the drop in Democrats’ positive views of capitalism is related to Donald Trump’s presidency,” said Gallup’s Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport. “Trump is an enthusiastic capitalist, and his administration’s efforts to roll back regulations on business and industry, as well as the tax cut law that is advantageous to businesses and corporations, may have caused Democrats to view the entire capitalist enterprise with less positive eyes.”

But Newport also said the talk of a Democratic shift toward socialism has been overstated and that aside from Ocasio-Cortez, most socialist candidates lost in this year’s Democratic primaries.

A majority (56 percent) of Americans still have a positive view of capitalism. What’s more, 92 percent of Americans have a positive view of small businesses, 86 percent have a positive view of entrepreneurs, 79 percent have a positive view of free enterprise and 53 percent have a positive view of “big business.”

Overall, only 37 percent of Americans have a positive view of socialism.

The poll was conducted from July 30 to Aug. 5, 2018, among a random sample of 1,505 adults. Gallup said the margin of error was three plus or minus three percent. The poll did not define either socialism or capitalism for the respondents.

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/08/14/democrats-prefer-socialism-capitalism-gallup-poll/988558002/

The post Democrats have a more positive view of socialism than capitalism, poll finds first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.