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After hours of talks on Thursday, representatives of 19 eurozone countries agreed to make €500 billion ($547 billion) available “immediately” to stimulate the EU economy as it struggles with the economic fallout of the ongoing pandemic.

“Excellent accord between the European finance ministers,” tweeted France’s Bruno La Maire.

EU heavyweights France and Germany had been working on a solution to address the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, with EU finance ministers negotiating into Thursday evening.

Germany’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholz praised the decision as a “great day of European solidarity.”

He said that the plan provides “three strong answers” to the crisis, including aid to small and mid-sized businesses through the European Investment Bank, short-term work programs for the labor force, and loans to affected states through the European Stability Mechanism.

Credit lines to the European Stability Mechanism “will be available until the COVID-19 crisis is over” according to a draft document cited by Reuters.

Spain’s representative Nadia Calvino also said a “good deal” was reached and would provide a “triple security network for workers, companies, and states.”

Germany’s Merkel rejects “coronabonds”

The EU countries had been at odds on whether or not the loans should be conditioned on financial reforms. The EU states were also at loggerheads on how to finance the fund itself, with Italy, Spain, France, and other, mostly southern EU countries, wanting a joint “coronabonds” borrowing scheme that Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and Austria opposed.

The ministers had been unable to come up with a solution at the marathon-length talks on Wednesday, reportedly due to the Netherlands wanting tougher conditions for member states to take cheap loans.

Read more:  Opinion: EU must address pandemic’s effects on economies

Pressure was on the Dutch government to accept the compromise solution presented by Berlin and Paris.

The European Investment Bank will now support EU companies with €200 billion in loans, according to Eurogroup chairman Mario Centeno. The EU leaders would try to have ESM crisis support operational in two weeks, he added.

Read more:  Coronabonds and the idea of European financial unity

Earlier on Thursday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel had rejected the joint borrowing initiative, telling members of her conservative political bloc there was no “political consensus” for it. However, she also told them she had been in contact with France’s Emmanuel Macron, the Netherlands’ Rutte and Italy’s Giuseppe Conte, saying that a compromise solution was “very close.”

dj/rc (AFP, AP, dpa, Reuters)

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/eu-ministers-make-breakthrough-on-coronavirus-economic-response/a-53080298

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Le Maire said on a call with reporters that the European Stability Mechanism will be activated with light conditionality. He also said the agreement will make 500 billion euros available immediately and that a recovery fund will follow.

“Europe has shown that it can rise to the occasion of this crisis,” Le Maire said on Twitter.

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Europe is heading into its most severe economic crisis for decades. Its two biggest economies — Germany and France — are already in freefall. Germany is contracting at its fastest pace since records began, in 1970, while in France you would need to return to the chaotic days of 1968 to find a slump that is broadly comparable to what is unfolding right now.

But it will be in southern Europe, in countries such as Italy, where the worst effects of the health crisis will allow the worst effects of the economic crisis to really do some damage.

The numbers are terrifying.

This week, Goldman Sachs said that while it expects France’s GDP this year to decline by just over 7%, and Germany’s by 9%, Italy’s will slump by nearly 12%. The signs of the looming catastrophe are there. Italy’s manufacturers have just recorded their sharpest drop since records began.

More than four million businesses have shuttered. Tourism has ground to a halt. And, in a cruel twist of fate, it has been Italy’s most productive northern regions where the full force of the coronavirus pandemic has been felt.

Some analysts have argued that this contraction and crisis will be short-lived; that Italy will ‘bounce back’ later in the year. But this raises a difficult question: bounce back to what? The country has, essentially, lost two decades.

As the economist Ashoka Mody has pointed out, Italy has been in an economic coma ever since it joined the Euro more than 20 years ago. Economic growth has flat-lined and living standards have stagnated; Italians have now spent all of the 21st century in a slow or no-growth trap.

The country was heading into another recession at the end of last year. And it had already gone through three in the past ten years, without ever having really recovered from the last crisis. Before COVID-19 hit, Italy’s economic output was still 5% below the peak that was recorded more than a decade ago.

This is one reason why, last year, the International Monetary Fund forecast that even by 2024 Italy’s output will still be lower than it had been in 2007. The country’s public debt to GDP ratio has ballooned; for each of the past six years Italy has owed more than 130% of its annual economic output, a figure that will now almost certainly surpass at least 150%.

Its financial system has remained weak, and there are still too many non-performing loans. The country, meanwhile, is grappling with one of the highest unemployment rates in the Eurozone which, at 10%, is basically what it was nearly a decade ago. Youth unemployment has been far higher — at nearly 30% —which is one reason why you hear so many Italian voices on the London tube.

In short, it is hard to make the case that the average Italian today is better off than when their country joined the single currency more than 20 years ago. Certainly, some of Italy’s problems predate its membership of the Euro: the poor education rates, aging population, lack of industrial modernization and heavy reliance on small family-run businesses have not helped.

But it is also true that Italy’s inability to breach Eurozone spending rules and invest seriously in its own economy has left it trapped in a doom loop. Which, in turn, has left Italians feeling frustrated, fed up and deeply pessimistic about their future. At the end of last year, 90% of the Dutch and 83% of the Germans described their economic situation as ‘good’. In Italy, it was 17%.

Italian enthusiasm for the European Union was also waning. Last year, as the Eurobarometer survey revealed, they were already among the least trusting of the European Union (only 38% trust it), were among the least likely to think positively about the EU (only 33%), were among the least likely to feel that their ‘voice counts’ in the EU (only 30%) and were among the least likely to feel satisfied with how democracy is working in the EU (only 45% did so).

Then, when COVID hit and Italians looked beyond their borders for help, European ‘solidarity’ was slow to appear — or did not appear at all.  Talk of unity, of learning from the mistakes of previous crises, quickly made way for nation-first approaches to closing borders and restricting the export of medical supplies.

Russia and China quickly filled the vacuum that had once again been left by the lack of leadership in Europe by sending supplies and workers.

When several states, including Italy, then asked their Eurozone partners to share debt, the more secure states in the north, notably Germany and the Netherlands, said no.  Anxious that a sharing of debt now might lead to the sharing of debt in the future, some in the north argued that financial assistance should come instead through the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

But many in the south, shaped by the experiences of the past decade and remembering the treatment of Greece, fear what strings will be attached to assistance. It is seen as a path to further austerity; last week, nearly half of all Italians rejected the idea of receiving help from the ESM because they see it as “a tool to impose Greek-style austerity”.

Meanwhile, the populist politician Matteo Salvini, who has been struggling in the polls, has taken full advantage of the situation. He’s now campaigning on the issue, stating simply: “No to the ESM”. Even if Salvini himself is not the beneficiary it is hard to see how Italy comes out of a renewed crisis with less rather than more populism. After all, it was the previous financial crisis that set the stage for the rise of both the ‘neither Right nor Left’ populist Five Star and Salvini’s League.

Their abandonment by the EU is clearly being felt by Italians as they sing to one another from their balconies. In recent weeks, nearly nine in ten said that the ‘EU is not helping us’, more than seven in ten felt that the EU ‘has not contributed in any way to addressing the crisis’ and nearly eight in ten resigned themselves to the view that the EU is unlikely to change

Other polls have recorded an increase in public support for leaving; today, more than one in three Italians say they would leave while less than half think this is a bad idea. Feeling abandoned, Italians have also become less trusting of the EU —with just one in four doing so — and more likely to say that their membership of the EU is a ‘disadvantage’, with 67% doing so.

All of this is raising big questions about the ability of the European Union to revive public enthusiasm in the broader project. As even the New York Times noted this week: the question to ask is not whether the EU will survive — because it will — but rather what is the point of any union if it cannot find unity when unity is needed most.

Passionate pro-Europeans routinely begin their columns and tweets with the famous quote by Jean Monnet: ‘Europe will be forged in crises and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises’.  But many other things can be forged in crises — including Euroscepticism and a belief that, when it comes to the crunch, you really can only rely on your nation.

We tend to forget this now, but it was the EU’s fumbled response to two earlier crises — the Great Recession and refugee crisis — that convinced Britain’s Leave voters that being in this organization was not in their longer-term economic interests.

Most Italians have not yet reached the same conclusion. But if you put Europe’s bungled response to COVID alongside Italy’s worsening economic picture then it is not hard to see how the different impact of the current crisis and the recovery to come might push them further in this direction.

When Italy eventually emerges from this crisis it will not only be a poorer country but will also be a more Eurosceptic one, too. And who knows where that will lead.

Source: https://unherd.com/2020/04/could-italy-tear-europe-apart/

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Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico were running well above normal in mid-March, and have warmed even more since then, raising the odds of an above-average hurricane season. (Source: Climate Reanalyzer)

An increased risk of natural disasters is the last thing we need in the age of COVID-19. But as we move into spring and summer, that’s the unfortunate forecast — higher risks than normal for Atlantic hurricanes, Midwestern and Southeastern floods and Western wildfires.

This comes at a time when emergency workers and other responders are already struggling to respond to the coronavirus pandemic. And like all of us, they are at risk.

In fact, this past weekend, a member of Colorado’s Unified Command Group at the State Emergency Operations Center tested positive for COVID-19. He may have passed the virus on to others at the center.

More broadly, years of devastating cyclones, floods, wildfires, winter storms, droughts, and other disasters have threatened to deplete funding coffers. “What will happen now with the pandemic?,” asks Lori Peek, Director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado. “This is of grave concern.” (In the interest of full disclosure: Peek is a colleague of mine at the University of Colorado Boulder, where the Natural Hazards Center is based.)

During the past decade, there have been 121 weather and climate disasters costing a billion dollars or more, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The overall tally over the period: a staggering $809 billion. Tragically, these disasters also led to 5,252 deaths.

Of course, none of these disasters occurred during a time when responders were dealing with anything remotely like the current coronavirus pandemic.

Hurricane Dorian’s 185 mph winds at landfall in the Bahamas on Sept. 1, 2019, put it in a tie for the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record. This image, acquired by the GOES-16 weather satellite, shows lightning in the eye of Dorian early that morning. (Source: NOAA)

Tropical cyclones have contributed significantly to the devastation. The past four years in particular have brought very active Atlantic hurricane seasons. And now, scientists at Colorado State University are predicting a fifth season of heightened activity.

“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the researchers say in their extended range forecast of Atlantic hurricane activity. (Category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes are considered major.)

In total, they forecast that 2020 will bring about 16 named storms, compared with an average of 12, with eight of those being hurricanes, and four being major.

A measure of overall activity called “accumulated cyclone energy” is also forecast to be significantly higher than normal. For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, the researchers estimate that ACE — an index combining the number of hurricanes, how long they exist, and how intense they become — will come in at a worrisome 150 percent of average.

Source: Phil Klotzbach via Twitter

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“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted,” the researchers warn.

The forecast for heightened hurricane risks is based on a number of factors, including a pattern of warm sea surface temperatures that are associated with above-normal hurricane seasons, according to Phil Klotzbach, first author of the Colorado State report.

Moving inland, NOAA is predicting another year of widespread river flooding, stretching from the Upper Midwest south through the central U.S. and across a large part of the Southeast.

Locations where there is a greater-than-50-percent chance of major, moderate or minor flooding during the spring period of March through May 2020. (Source: NOAA)

“NOAA forecasters predict widespread flooding this spring, but do not expect it to be as severe or prolonged overall as the historic floods in 2019,” according to the agency’s 2020 spring flooding outlook.

Although it likely won’t be as bad as last year, “Major to moderate flooding is likely in 23 states from the Northern Plains south to the Gulf Coast, with the most significant flood potential in parts of North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota.”

The risk comes from ongoing rainfall, highly saturated soils, and the likelihood of above-normal precipitation this spring.

The coronavirus pandemic could significantly hamper efforts to mitigate the flooding. As noted in a recent story in The Washington Post, “many Midwestern flood defense systems are entirely dependent on volunteers, who likely will be too sick or too scared to come out and build sandbag bulwarks or help evacuate neighbors.”

The pandemic could also hamper efforts to contain wildfires in the Western U.S. and elsewhere. During March, drought conditions intensified and expanded across California, Oregon, Washington, and Nevada, heightening fire risks in many areas.

Source: National Interagency Fire Center

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In Northern California, seasonal precipitation and mountain snowpack have been about half of average as of April 1. “The snowpack is expected to completely melt off by early June, a full month earlier than usual,” according to a report from the National Interagency Fire Center. Moreover, the vegetation and soils under the snowpack are dry.

“This means that there will be even less beneficial runoff in the late spring and early summer, and this will lead to an earlier date of critical fuel dryness at middle and high elevations,” according to the fire center report. This means large parts of the northern Sierra Mountains will have higher-than-normal risks for significant large wildfires during June, and at higher elevations in July.

Risks are also elevated for central through eastern Washington and most of Oregon.

Years of bigger and more frequent wildfires have sent costs of suppressing wildfires soaring. In the five years between 1985 and 1989, annual costs averaged $371 million. For the period between 2014 and 2018, the average annual tally climbed to $2.3 billion. In 2018 alone, costs came in at a crushing $3.1 billion — an all-time high.

California’s devastating Camp Fire is seen in this image acquired by the Landsat 8 satellite on Nov. 8, 2018. The image combines data in the visible and infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. (Source: NASA Earth Observatory.)

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Fighting fires and dealing with other natural disasters during this era of COVID-19 will stretch resources even more. But the problem goes beyond mere dollars and cents.

Responding to natural disasters often requires large groups of people to work together, often in close contact. To combat wildfires, for example, firefighters often gather in base camps where they share living space. As a recent release from the U.S. Department of the Interior notes, “Setting up an incident command post at a time when most people are living under ‘stay at home’ orders poses unique challenges.”

And at the front lines, if one member of a 20-person firefighting crew tests positive for COVID-19, the entire crew will have to be quarantined.

“I was already really concerned about the health and well-being of responders even before the pandemic,” says Peek of the Natural Hazards Center.

Some have already been stretched for long periods. She cites responders in Puerto Rico, who have been laboring to return the island to some semblance of normalcy after the devastation caused by Hurricane Maria in 2017. Since then, there have been 70,000 landslides, as well as earthquakes.

“Now, on top of that,” Peek says, “we have the pandemic.”

We can only hope that efforts across multiple U.S. federal agencies to plan for these unprecedented challenges will be effective.

• medicine
• environment
• climate change
• natural disasters
  

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  Source: https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/even-as-covid-19-poses-huge-challenges-to-responders-the-risks-for-natural

  [Disclaimer]

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COVID-19 has reached the refugee camps of Greece, with two different migrant facilities in the country now closed to entry and exit after residents in each tested positive for coronavirus. 

In the latest case, a 53-year-old Afghan man with pre-existing health conditions in Malakasa camp, just outside Athens, was confirmed ill with the virus. 

A few days prior, at least 23 residents tested positive for the coronavirus in Ritsona camp. These cases are the first to be confirmed at a camp in Greece, but there are fears that many more are unreported.  

The government has responded by quarantining each camp’s residents – with a combined population of over 5,000 people – for a minimum of 14 days. 

Dire conditions 

These critical developments renew calls to clear the overcrowded, unhygienic camps, where observation of the governments’ own rules on social distancing remain impossible.

Zikria Farzad is an Afghan refugee and a teacher. He is also the creator of ‘Wave of Hope’, a makeshift school created by refugees in Moria camp on Lesbos.  He understands just how crowded the camps are. 

“For a two-person tent, there are four families, and seven families for container shacks that are designed for two families,” Zikria told The New Arab. 

To make it worse, the situation under quarantine has been even more suffocating for refugees, as already dangerous conditions appear to be deteriorating. In the camps, access to food is limited.  

The NGO Lifeline reports that in Moria the food supply has been reduced to 1,000 kilocalories (kcal) per day for children and adolescents. This is half of the recommended daily intake. 

Read more: Middle East regimes are freeing inmates as coronavirus spreads. But political prisoners remain behind bars 

They also report that bottled drinking water has been reduced to nine litres per family per day. Big families of more than six people get the same allowance. 

Restricted healthcare 

Healthcare has been restricted since the government blocked access to social security numbers for refugees and migrants in July.

Those sick in Ritsona and Malakasa may only be able to access the hospital in Athens due to their specific condition being classified as an emergency, in line with a state policy of non-refusal which makes emergency treatment mandatory.

This measure has forced those living in the camps to rely on NGOs and solidarity groups for healthcare, yet even these have been threatened by the recent violence against NGOs on the island that drove many NGOs to evacuate their volunteers.  

Now in Lesvos, less than 20 volunteer medics remain for over 22,000 residents. 

Jan Egeland, secretary-general of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) has said that “coronavirus will decimate refugee communities if we don’t act now“. 

Social distancing impossible 

The World Health Organisation’s (WHO) guidelines to slow the impact, and thus the death rate, of the virus, include social distancing and seeking medical assistance early.

The scale of the outbreaks in the camps depends largely on whether it will emulate a 1 percent fatality rate, like that in Ireland, or 10 percent like that of Italy. 

In the camps, following such guidelines is impossible. “We cannot stay inside because we have to get food, water and go to the bathroom,” said Zaki, a nineteen-year-old Afghan in Moria Camp. 

“When we go outside there are a lot of people and people are always sick because we don’t have healthy food and doctors are only for people who are really sick,” he added. 

Nafesee, a young mother of three in Eleonas Refugee Camp describes her experience of the camp, “if one person gets sick, everyone gets sick and if one person has a coronavirus, all the people in the camp get infected”. 

One government official has described the conditions in the camps as a powder keg ready to explode. Zikria fears that currently, “with no means of preventing it, the virus will soon cause all people to die.”

Read more: ‘Live like human beings’: Refugees robbed, assaulted trying to cross Greek border 

A trending hashtag on Twitter and Facebook is #stayhome; but for people like Zaki, Nafese, and, Zikria, there is no home to stay in. 

Self-organization 

Residents and volunteers have collectively organized their own protective measures. In Moria, a group of Afghan women are working at a rapid rate to produce 500 protective masks each day.  

Meanwhile refugees at the solidarity group ‘Stand By Me’ Lesvos are working seven days a week to clear waste from the site.

However, whilst evacuation is delayed there are limits on what the communities can do to prepare. The Greek government has taken some limited measures to prepare for the arrival of the virus in the camps including the installation of ATMS and delineated quarantine areas.

Several sources indicate that this may amount to one medical container for 20,000 people. 

Evacuate the camps 

On 24 March, Amnesty International called on the Greek government to “move people out of the reception centres to appropriate, small-scale centres on the mainland, such as hotels and apartments.”  

In Greece, thousands of apartment blocks lie empty. Another suggestion came from sea rescue NGO Sea-watch. They called for cruise ships to evacuate the Greek island camps, using vessels now lying empty docked in nearby ports.

Migrant women, men, and children should be housed in facilities with adequate security, sanitation, and hygienic conditions and should be allowed to apply for asylum. With COVID-19, all and any healthcare needs should be promptly addressed. 

A research committee within the EU also published a letter demanding action from the EU.

“If the EU fails to take immediate action, the situation on the Greek islands will become unmanageable with the risk of many deaths. This is an emergency and the EU has to react accordingly,” the letter stated. 

This echoes the demands of residents themselves and activist groups such as ‘Demand from a Pandemic’ who have organized banner drops, and a Norwegian group who placed 7,499 shoes on the shores of Ulvoya beach, representing each child or young person trapped in Moria. 

“The humanitarian catastrophe is coming, and the only solution is for the world to cooperate, and the camp must be evacuated as soon as possible,” warned Zikria. But he is not hopeful.

“I personally no longer believe in today’s world…especially European politics.” 

Arash Yousufi, is an international activist and independent journalist from Afghanistan, reporting from Athens, Greece. Follow him on: Facebook 

Keira Dignan is a librarian and independent writer from London based in Athens, Greece. She currently runs the ECHO Mobile Library. Follow her on: Twitter

Source: https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/indepth/2020/4/8/catastrophe-is-coming-disaster-looms-for-greek-refugee-camps

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Biologists work in a laboratory at Pluristem Therapeutics Inc. in Haifa – (photo credit: BAZ RATNER/REUTERS)

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The coronavirus could eventually infect between 10,000 and 200,000 people in Saudi Arabia, the kingdom’s health minister has said, urging the public to adhere more closely to state directives against mixing and movement.

The country of some 30 million inhabitants has so far reported 2,795 cases and 41 deaths, the highest in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, despite halting all passenger flights, suspending most commercial activities and imposing a 24-hour curfew in major cities including the capital Riyadh.

“We stand today at a decisive moment as a society in raising our sense of responsibility and contributing together with determination to stop the spread of this pandemic,” Health Minister Tawfiq al-Rabiah said in a rare televised address on Tuesday.

Four studies by infectious disease experts indicated the number of cases was likely to reach between 10,000 and 200,000 in coming weeks, he said.

The virus has already infected more than 1.3 million people worldwide.

Rabiah said the 24-hour curfews, imposed on Monday night, were needed because some were not taking the danger of infection seriously but leaving their homes and gathering in groups.

Passenger road traffic had only fallen by around 50 percent.

The interior ministry subsequently brought forward the start of curfew in all areas not already under a 24-hour lockdown to 3 pm from 7 pm.

Despite the new restrictions, many people were still moving about on Tuesday morning in Riyadh, Reuters reported.

Rabiah said keeping infections at current levels for four to 12 months would give the kingdom more time to prepare and prevent the virus from overwhelming the health system, as it has in other countries.

King Salman approved another 7bn riyals ($1.86bn) for the health ministry to combat the disease, and another 32bn ($8.5bn) could be disbursed before the end of the year, Rabiah added.

He said the economy and planning minister would speak later about new decisions to combat the epidemic’s impact on the Saudi economy, the largest in the Arab world.

Source: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/coronavirus-saudi-arabia-infections-may-reach-thousands

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Abe announced the state of emergency targeting the capital Tokyo and six other prefectures – accounting for about 44 per cent of Japan’s population – for a period of about one month.

“We have decided to declare a state of emergency because we’ve judged that a fast spread of the coronavirus nationwide would have an enormous impact on lives and the economy,” he told Parliament earlier.

His cabinet will also finalize the stimulus package worth 108 trillion yen ($US990 billion) – equal to 20 percent of Japan’s economic output – to cushion the impact of the epidemic on the world’s third-largest economy.

Abe said direct fiscal spending would amount to 39 trillion yen, or 7 percent of the economy, more than double the amount Japan spent following the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Japan has been spared the big outbreaks of the coronavirus seen in other global hot spots, but a recent, steady rise in infections in Tokyo, Osaka, and other areas led to growing calls for Abe to announce a state of emergency.

Coronavirus infections in Tokyo more than doubled to about 1,200 in the past week, with more than 80 new ones reported on Tuesday, accounting for the highest number in the country.

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