Coming to a negotiating table near your.  Photographer: Sergei Grits/AFP/Getty Images

When I served as Supreme Allied Commander at NATO from 2009 to 2013, I developed a friendly relationship with the head of the Russian armed forces, General Nikolai Makarov. He was a short, barrel-chested man with a congenial personal style, and given my own somewhat compact physique, I could at least tell my boss, Secretary of Defense Bob Gates, that I literally saw things “eye to eye” with my Russian counterpart. Our meetings occurred both in Moscow and several times in Brussels at NATO headquarters. I also had him over to my official residence in Mons, Belgium, where too much vodka was drank but we continued to have meaningful conversations (at least in the early parts of the evening).

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We argued about a variety of things from the Russian invasion of Georgia to an appropriate strategy in Afghanistan, but it was an open, sensible and pragmatic relationship. Probably the greatest disagreement we had involved the U.S. desire to install a missile defense system in Europe — intended not to oppose Russian strategic systems but to defend against Iranian ballistic missiles.

We also developed a series of cooperative programs, from counter-piracy off the Horn of Africa to information-sharing on narcotics flowing from Afghanistan. Overall, that kind of military-to-military engagement is very helpful in defusing tension and avoiding unintended clashes. It matters at the tactical, operational and strategic levels.

Given the subsequent invasion of Ukraine, annexation of Crimea, intrusion into U.S. elections, and Russian support for the war criminal Bashar al-Assad in Syria, those sorts of top-level relationships have been dormant for some time. I was therefore heartened by recent reports that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Joe Dunford, and the current Supreme Allied Commander, Army General Curtis Scaparrotti, are in serious discussions with the current head of the Russian armed forces, Valery Gerasimov.

Phone conversations are occurring with some regularity, and most importantly, Scaparrotti and Gerasimov have tentatively scheduled a face-to-face meeting in Europe. This is an important element if we are to avoid stumbling backward into a full-blown Cold War with Russia.

What should be on the agenda when these two seasoned military leaders meet?

Tactically, the two generals need to create an effective regime to avoid unintended confrontations between NATO and the Russians. In several instances over the past 12 months, NATO and Russian aircraft and ships have been on collision courses in the Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas. While the details would be classified, there have probably also been close and dangerous interactions under the ice in the Arctic.

The two leaders should see that their staffs confer on ways to reduce the potential for high-stakes accidents. This can include technical signals to use in operations, setting “stand-off” distances at air and sea, and tactical hotlines to keep each side informed of patrols.

Operationally, the conversations should look at where forces are being assigned broadly. The Russians are extremely unhappy with increased NATO military presence on their borders. NATO, on the other hand, is justifiably critical of Russian troops in southeastern Ukraine. While neither side will immediately change deployments, a good starting point would be for each side to brief the other about current deployments and plans at a very broad, generic, unclassified level. Let the Russians explain what they are doing in Ukraine; and have the NATO commander defend the development and deployment of the new NATO Rapid Reaction Forces. There may be small compromises that could be suggested up the respective chains of command to reduce obvious areas of tension.

In terms of operational exercises, more transparency and visibility would be good. There are existing mechanisms here, such as the Open Skies agreement, allowing some overflight and reconnaissance during another nation’s military exercises. Additionally, the huge training programs run by both Russia and the U.S. could allow on-the-ground observers in portions of the exercise as a confidence-building measure. Naval exercises in the Baltic and Black Seas could include a component with both sides working together practicing humanitarian operations or counter-narcotics.

Finally, at the strategic level, there is much to discuss. While these senior military officers are not in charge of their nations’ strategies, they can certainly illuminate them for each other. Scaparrotti should be prepared to discuss the Donald Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy (largely drafted by the departing National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster). Gerasimov should be able to help the West understand why President Vladimir Putin is launching a series of new, dangerous weapons — including a nuclear torpedo.

In addition to working through challenges and tensions, the two generals should think together about possible areas of cooperation. Some to consider include counterterrorism, search-and-rescue in the Arctic, counter-piracy, and a return to cooperation in Afghanistan (where both nations have shared interests in reducing narcotics and stabilizing the region).

Of course, none of this will immediately defuse all the tensions between NATO and Russia. There will be challenges aplenty in the relationship, including the most recent one — an attack on British soil using an outlawed nerve agent. But by taking an approach that says we should confront where we must, but cooperate where we can, these two leaders can propose intelligent and realistic zones of collaboration in the current sea of confrontation.

To contact the author of this story:
James Stavridis at jstavridis@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-03-27/russia-and-nato-talking-their-way-out-of-another-cold-war

The post A New Cold War Is Not Inevitable first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

FILE PHOTO: A convoy of US troops near Warsaw, Poland. © Kacper Pempel / Reuters

US troops in the Baltic countries would be “outranged, outgunned and outmatched” by Russians in case of a conflict, the head of the US European Command told lawmakers, seeking to secure funds in the face of a Moscow “threat.”

“If you look at it in a concentrated way on the border of Eastern Europe and only on the ground force, I would agree with that statement,” General Curtis Scaparrotti told Senator James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Thursday.

Inhofe was referring to the recent RAND Corporation report which found that Russian forces could take the capitals of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania within 60 hours. The report has been compiled over the past several years, with the assistance of EUCOM, Scaparrotti said.

“I don’t have any argument with the basis of the report and the threat that we have,” he added. Though the RAND report concluded that NATO has “sufficient resources, personnel, and equipment to enhance conventional deterrence focused on Russia,” it argued a “more robust posture … is worthy of consideration.”

Scaparrotti: #Russia is carrying out a campaign of destabilization to change the international order, fracture @NATO, and undermine U.S. leadership around the world.

“Hence my comment that I don’t have all the forces I need in Europe today,” Scaparrotti lamented, despite admitting that the US has “repostured forces” and “rewritten plans” of containing Russia over the past few years.

Last month, EUCOM requested $6.5 billion for its European Deterrence Initiative in 2019, which is roughly $2 billion more than requested for fiscal 2018.

Roaring cannons: Massive US-led artillery drills kick off in Europe (PHOTOS, VIDEOS)

Following plans drafted by the Obama administration, the US deployed military forces into Poland and the Baltic states last year, to “reassure” its allies in the face of “Russian aggression.” Reserving the right to defend its national security, Moscow has long sought compromises in the face of the US and NATO’s creeping expansion towards Russian borders after the end of Cold War, with Poland joining in March 1999 and the Baltic States in 2004.

Scaparrotti took over EUCOM in May 2016, and has continued the drumbeat of hostility to Russia set by his predecessor General Philip Breedlove. He asked the lawmakers to approve the budget requests for more troops, supplies and information warfare programs to counter the “threat” of Russia.

At Thursday’s hearing, he accused Moscow of seeking to “change the international order, fracture NATO, and undermine US leadership.” Russia continues to intercept “routine reconnaissance flight operations over the Baltic and Black Seas, flying dangerously close to our aircraft and occasionally causing unsafe conditions for our pilots operating in international airspace,” Scaparrotti informed lawmakers, adding that Russia also “continues to hold snap exercises and to limit transparency of planned exercises.”

The US general failed to mention, though, that most of Russia’s military drills take place inside its own borders. The one exception was the September 2017 ‘Zapad’ exercise jointly organized with Belarus. Even though Moscow and Minsk were upfront and transparent about the number of troops involved and the objectives, some NATO, US and Ukrainian officials claimed they were a cover for something more sinister.

‘Citing perceived Russian threat, US is trying to get a foothold in Europe by means of #NATO‘ – #Lavrov https://on.rt.com/8zct 

Imagined Russia threat is pretext for US dominance in Europe through NATO – Lavrov — RT World News

Citing a perceived Russian threat, the US is trying to get a foothold in Europe by means of NATO, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said. The alliance continues to expand, devouring even Moscow’s…

rt.com

Meanwhile, as Scaparrotti was complaining to the senators about Russia’s threatening drills, some 3,700 troops from 26 NATO member states were conducting artillery exercises at the Grafenwoehr range in Germany. The drills, dubbed Dynamic Front 18, began on February 23 and are scheduled to end on March 10.

Pentagon ‘disappointed’ by Putin’s revelation of new Russian nuclear deterrent

Just last year, EUCOM conducted “over 2,500 military-to-military engagements, including over 700 State Partnership Program events in 22 countries,” Scaparrotti informed the Senate, as well as 22 exercises with nine allies under a special program for Eastern Europe. The US military is also stepping up efforts to “counter Russia’s propaganda and misinformation campaigns” through a joint effort with the State Department called the Russian Information Group (RIG), Scaparrotti said.

Among the long list of ills Scaparrotti accused Russia of was conducting the June 2017 NotPetya cyber-attack, interfering in elections across Europe, and endangering the Balkan countries’ “brighter future as part of the Euro-Atlantic family of nations.” The general also spoke approvingly of the recent Trump administration decision to sell Javelin anti-tank missiles to the government in Kiev, and noted that the US has spent “over $850 million” in aid to Ukraine since 2014.

Though Scaparrotti argued that Moscow could challenge US dominance by 2025, there was little mention of several new weapons in Moscow’s arsenal, revealed last week by Russian President Vladimir Putin as a message to the US and NATO that their attempts to intimidate and contain Russia have failed.

“All the things you were trying to prevent through your policies have already happened. You have failed to hold Russia back,” Putin said.

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Source: https://www.rt.com/usa/420836-general-russia-outgunned-nato/

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