Denuclearization (North Korea) - Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association

N. Korea denuclearization plan vague, but talks with US likely to proceed

Thu, 20 Sep 2018 20:39:00 +0000

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, right, attend their summit as South Korea’s National Intelligence Service Director Suh Hoon, second from left, and North Korean senior ruling party official and former intelligence chief, Kim Yong Chol, second from right, sit at the Paekhwawon State Guesthouse in Pyongyang, North Korea, Wednesday, Sept. 19, 2018. (Pyongyang Press Corps Pool via AP)

SEOUL — While North Korean leader Kim Jong Un emphasized his eagerness to denuclearize at a joint press conference with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Pyongyang on Sept. 19, details of exactly what steps would be taken were limited and no clear measures to rebuild trust with Washington were mentioned.

Kim told the press that he will make efforts to turn the Korean Peninsula into “a land of peace without nuclear weapons or nuclear threats.” As roaring applause rose from the audience, Kim looked around and joined in the clapping with apparent satisfaction.

Earlier in April when he met with Moon in Panmunjom, on the border between the North and South, Kim did not mention denuclearization directly at the press conference. Although the Panmunjom Declaration referred to “complete denuclearization,” its omission from Kim’s speech at the news conference led some observers to believe the North Korean leader was not serious about getting rid of his nuclear weapons and facilities.

This time, he uttered the key word in front of TV cameras broadcasting his image and speech worldwide. Kim succeeded in presenting his position of promoting denuclearization, and is expected to receive positive responses from the international community.

However, denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula had already been agreed upon — not only between Pyongyang and Seoul, but between Pyongyang and Washington. The focus of attention this time, therefore, was how far Kim would go in proposing new detailed steps toward this goal. Another key point of the North-South summit was whether Kim would list the country’s nuclear weapons and facilities, which was of particular interest to the United States.

The joint declaration from the latest summit states that North Korea agrees to permanently dismantle its missile engine test facility and missile launch tower in Dongchangri, in the northwestern part of the country, in the presence of experts from countries concerned. This step, however, is considered almost identical to a revelation made after Kim’s summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in June, in which the North Korean leader pledged that he would dismantle a missile engine test site.

Moreover, it is not clear if “experts from countries concerned” would actually be invited to witness the demolition work, if precedents serve as any guide. When North Korea blew up shafts leading to its underground nuclear test sites in Punggyeri in the northeast in May, the country did not invite American and South Korean experts as promised. Only a limited number of international reporters were allowed to witness the scene.

The joint declaration this time also says that North Korea intends to take more steps to dismantle its nuclear program, including permanently dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear facility. However, this promise is on the condition that the U.S. takes “corresponding measures.”

The Rodong Sinmun, the newspaper of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea, stated in its Sept. 18 edition that the United States is “wholly responsible” for the bogged down state of denuclearization negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington. The government mouthpiece also expressed strong dissatisfaction with the United States for demanding that North Korea denuclearize first.

Judging from what Kim told the joint press conference on Sept. 19, it is clear that North Korea wants to continue its dialogue policy, which began with the North-South summit in April and the U.S.-North Korea summit in June. This is because Pyongyang has judged it vital to have a stable international environment, along with active economic exchange with China and South Korea, if it is to focuses on building its economy.

However, the latest summit did not reveal how far North Korea is willing to go toward denuclearization. There was no mention of naming the nuclear weapons and facilities in the country, a vital first step for any meaningful process to get rid of a nuclear program.

Professor Kim Guen-sik of Kyungnam University, a South Korean specialist on North Korea, pointed out that Kim Jong Un “just repeated his existing position when it comes to the nuclear issue.”

But even then, the U.S. appeared to be positive about the outcome of the North-South summit.

“Kim Jong Un has agreed to allow Nuclear inspections, subject to final negotiations,” Trump tweeted after the announcement of the joint declaration on Sept. 19. “Also, North and South Korea will file a joint bid to host the 2032 Olympics. Very exciting!”

Since the joint declaration did not mention North Korea accepting “nuclear inspections,” the basis of President Trump’s tweet is unclear. The American leader apparently wants to play up this diplomatic achievement before the November U.S. Congressional midterm elections.

After the June summit between Trump and Kim, American administration officials became skeptical of Pyongyang’s commitment to denuclearization, resulting in negotiations hitting a wall. But Trump’s positive response to the latest development suggests that talks may now restart.

“What the United States needs to be looking for right now are genuine steps from the North Koreans that indicate a willingness to move the process forward,” Michael Fuchs, former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, told CNN. “If North Korea is genuinely willing to close down Yongbyon and to allow in inspectors … those are just partial steps, but those are genuine steps forward.”

At the joint press conference on Sept. 19, President Moon emphasized the historic importance of South and North Korea agreeing on measures for denuclearization for the first time. “Complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is not far away,” he said. Meanwhile, Moon’s chief presidential spokesman Yoon Young-chan explained that the denuclearization process “has entered the implementation phase,” as North Korea indicated its intention to shutter the Yongbyon facility.

Both Washington and Seoul appear positive about the outcome of the latest summit. The denuclearization measures incorporated in the joint declaration, however, were fairly limited. The declaration focused on preventing the production of “future nukes” by getting rid of means to develop new nuclear weapons, but did not say what will be done with existing weapons — a point the United States is demanding North Korea clarify.

Yoon told reporters that the issue of existing weapons is something Washington and Pyongyang need to discuss. He added that President Moon will report to President Trump in their Sept. 24 meeting “information that has not been revealed so far,” suggesting that Kim Jong Un also indicated other new measures concerning nuclear weapons.

According to South Korea, the two Koreas hope that inviting international observers to the demolition of the missile engine test facility in Dongchangri will spur negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang.

The Pyongyang Press Corps, which covered the summit, reported that Chung Eui-yong, director of the South Korean national security office who accompanied Moon to Pyongyang, told reporters that North Korea agreed to the “observation” of the demolition process by the international community, including the United States.

The definition of “observation” for North Korea could possibly be less intensive than the inspections or verifications considered necessary by the international community. Still, Chung pointed out that such a step “would help ease the international community’s distrust of North Korea for only seeming to take steps toward denuclearization for show.”

(Japanese original by Chiharu Shibue and Akiko Horiyama, Seoul Bureau; and Atsushi Iwasa, Foreign News Department)

Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20180920/p2a/00m/0na/024000c

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How Japan Might Lose Out in the Korea Talks

Yoichi Funabashi - Dr. Funabashi heads a think tank in Tokyo. — Mon, 11 Jun 2018 14:14:54 +0000

President Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan at the White House on June 7. Japan could be left vulnerable depending on the substance of Mr. Trump’s meeting with North Korea about denuclearization.CreditAndrew Harnik/Associated Press

TOKYO — Even if Tuesday’s meeting between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, goes well, Japan stands to lose from it in some ways. Despite a last-ditch effort last week by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan to play adviser to Mr. Trump before the talks, the American president still seems rather unconcerned by Japan’s long-term strategic interests — actually, its imperatives.

As Mr. Abe put it last week, “first and foremost, we need to seek advancement for the abduction, nuclear and missile programs.” He meant that Japan’s priorities are to obtain the return of all Japanese citizens that North Korea abducted years ago, North Korea’s actual denuclearization and an end to its efforts to develop any missiles, and not just the kind that can reach the United States.

Although the abductee issue is an emotional and sensitive matter in Japan, the government finds itself dependent on third parties to discuss it on its behalf, much like President Moon Jae-in of South Korea reportedly did with Mr. Kim in late April. On this question, and other major matters to do with North Korea, Japan has no choice for now but to try to influence negotiations from the sidelines, or else it risks being left behind altogether.

In the event that Mr. Trump does take up the abduction issue with Mr. Kim for Japan, as he has pledged to do, the North Korean government probably would use the hostages as leverage and release them only for specific gains, as in 2002 when it allowed five Japanese captives to return home in exchange for the promise of economic assistance.

Then there is denuclearization, which means different things to different parties. For Japan, the complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear program is essential, as James Mattis, the United States secretary of defense, has said. Verification, the most important prong of this approach, may also be the most difficult to satisfy: It would require North Korea to truthfully reveal the location of all its nuclear sites and fissile material — a very unlikely prospect.

Mr. Kim should be expected to exploit any ambiguity in order to hedge or dither while trying to secure relief from international sanctions. He is playing a long game and has time on his side. Election cycles in the United States, South Korea and Japan are short, but Mr. Kim is unelected and is only in his 30s.

Even if he vows to make what seem like significant commitments toward denuclearization, he will already have accomplished one of his main goals: Just by dint of these talks being held he will have succeeded in getting the United States to, in effect, treat North Korea as a de facto nuclear weapons state.

Denuclearizing North Korea can only be a phased process, for technical reasons, and it could take up to 15 years according to the nuclear expert Siegfried Hecker. Mr. Kim might slow it down further by first proposing, as he has begun to do, a peace treaty formally ending the Korean War to replace the 1953 armistice currently in effect. This, however, would be a dirty peace, especially for Japan, which in the meantime would remain as exposed as ever to a North Korean attack.

Japan will be all the more vulnerable if, as the government fears, the United States seeks to obtain North Korea’s agreement to freeze its intercontinental ballistic missiles program without obtaining guarantees that North Korea will also curtail its development of short- and mid-range missiles. Such an arrangement might protect the United States, but it would leave Japan (as well as South Korea) in the immediate danger zone, as well as open to nuclear coercion by North Korea.

Of even greater concern for Japan (and, again, South Korea) is that the United States, as a concession to North Korea, might offer to revise some aspects of its alliance with South Korea. For example, it could scale back joint military exercises or agree to withdraw U.S. troops from the country. But either proposal, even kept vague, would undercut America’s longstanding commitment to the security of South Korea, with far-reaching implications for Japan.

Any such curtailment would draw Japan deeper still into North Korea’s threat zone, while also undermining the credibility of the protection it is supposed to derive from America’s nuclear umbrella and generally weakening its alliance with the United States. That, in turn, would give Japan reason to expand its missile-defense system and, perhaps, its strike capabilities against North Korea — and maybe even a reason to hold public discussions about what has long been a taboo here: obtaining nuclear weapons of its own. In this respect, progress toward denuclearizing North Korea could backfire.

Another major security consideration for Japan is China and its efforts to dominate the region. China’s strategy is to slow down North Korea’s denuclearization, weaken the United States’s alliance with South Korea, marginalize Japan and frustrate cooperation among the United States, South Korea and Japan — all goals that would actually be advanced if Mr. Trump takes an ambiguous stance on denuclearization.

Mr. Abe has welcomed the talks between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim as a chance to make progress on the issues that matter to Japan. But he now keenly realizes that his efforts at golf diplomacy — nearly 30 telephone calls and official meetings with Mr. Trump, including two at Mar-a-Lago — could not convince the American president that alliances are not transactional but based on trust. Mr. Trump has displayed too little consideration for Japan’s interests, especially given the importance of this relationship. As a result, Japan is both dangerously exposed to the threat posed by North Korea and largely disenfranchised in the current negotiations, and it could suffer even from progress made in the talks.

Yoichi Funabashi is chairman of the Asia Pacific Initiative, an independent think tank in Tokyo, and the author of “The Peninsula Question: A Chronicle of the Second Korean Nuclear Crisis.”

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Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/11/opinion/japan-north-korea-denuclearization-trump.html

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South Korea to offer economic and political sweeteners if North Korea allows in nuclear inspectors

Michael Armstrong — Wed, 18 Apr 2018 07:31:48 +0000

Other demands to be made by Seoul at Korean leaders summit include freeze on Pyongyang’s missile programme, says South Korean government security adviser.

South Korea will demand the North freezes its missile programme, disclose its nuclear capacity and allow in nuclear inspectors in exchange for economic and political concessions from Seoul, a senior South Korean national security adviser said ahead of a summit between the two nations’ leaders.

Moon Chung-in, a special adviser on foreign affairs and national security in Seoul, said he expected significant outcomes from the talks between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on April 27, although it was highly unlikely US troops in the South would be withdrawn as part of any deal.

President Moon may also submit a formal declaration of peace with North Korea at the UN General Assembly in September if the two leaders can strike an agreement, the adviser told the South China Morning Post.

The Korean war ended in 1953 after an armistice was signed, but no formal peace agreement was made.

“As long as Pyongyang’s denuclearisation commitment is verifiable, incentives may be provided in various forms including military, political and diplomatic assurances to the regime”, the adviser Moon said.

CIA chief met Kim Jong-un during secret visit to North Korea

The United States, South Korea’s main military ally, may also provide incentives, he added.

“If North Korea is willing to denuclearise in a complete and a verifiable way, then the incentives by the US, as well as other countries in the world, will be quite hefty,” said Moon.

These could include North Korea’s long demands for an easing of international sanctions, removing it from a list of sponsors of international terrorism and suspending the use of some US strategic weapons, he said.

“If North Korea is really committed to denuclearisation, those kinds incentives won’t face any kinds of obstacles,” Moon said.

Kim should know that he can’t have nuclear weapons and economic development at the same time ~MOON CHUNG-IN, SOUTH KOREAN SECURITY ADVISER

Hopes of an end to the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula have risen in recent months after North and South Korea’s leaders agreed to talks. Kim Jong-un is also to meet with US President Donald Trump.

Kim made an unexpected trip to Beijing last month and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump, meanwhile, said on Tuesday the US and North Korea were holding direct talks at “extremely high levels” in preparation for his summit with Kim. CIA director Mike Pompeo traveled to North Korea last week to meet with Kim.

Trump gives his ‘blessing’ as Koreas ‘plan to end their war’

Security adviser Moon said he was surprised by the speed in developments, adding that Kim had become “very proactive” in pursuing talks with South Korea.

Moon suggested that the North Korean leader realised he had to pay more attention to pursuing pressing economic reforms to improve the livelihood of his people in the diplomatically isolated state.

“Kim should know that he can’t have nuclear weapons and economic development at the same time. Therefore, unless he makes fundamental concessions in the area of nuclear issues, he cannot achieve economic development,” Moon said.

Kim has so far not demanded the withdrawal of US troops in South Korea in his recent meetings with South Korean officials, including talks held last month with Seoul’s special envoy Chung Eui-yong, according to Moon. Troop withdrawals have previously been raised as a precondition for denuclearization by Pyongyang.

Moon also said the deployment of the US-developed missile shield system may not be needed in South Korea if the dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear weapons was achieved through negotiation.

Plans to use the system triggered a furious response from Beijing, which regards the technology as a threat to national security.

“If there is some sort of peace agreement through a declaration of an end to the Korean war, then China will get involved in the process of building peace in the Korean peninsula because China is a legal party to the armistice agreement,” said Moon.

Trump says US has had ‘extremely high-level’ talks with North Korea

However, he was sceptical of the need for a formal peace treaty, noting that the two Koreas already have a myriad of agreements to ensure peace in the region.

“We can make peace with existing agreements and declarations without drawing up a separate formal peace treaty,” he said.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Seoul to offer North sweeteners to freeze nuke plans

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North Korea lays out conditions for refusal from nuclear program

Hot news — Sun, 15 Apr 2018 05:46:14 +0000

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