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But North Korea has chosen to stay mum, which analysts say indicates a deepening dilemma for the young leader under pressure to prove he was right about offering to give up his country’s nuclear weapons program.

The US and South Korea’s often repeated statement that sanctions against North Korea must remain in place until Pyongyang completely denuclearizes could be a reason behind the North’s hesitance in moving forward on denuclearization talks with the US, analysts say.

(Yonhap)

Kim Jong-un’s dilemma

A year after North Korea imposed a de-facto moratorium on nuclear and missile tests, Kim might have expected to win at least partial sanctions relief from the US by now. In reality, denuclearization talks between North Korea and the US have been at a stalemate.

North Korea has not responded to the US’ requests for working-level meetings aimed at discussing the substance of denuclearization since their historic summit in June. Nor has it responded to the US’ offer to hold a senior-level meeting since the North postponed it last month.

North Korea has demanded the US take “corresponding measures” — which seem to include an end-of-war declaration and sanctions relief — to build trust and improve relations before it further denuclearizes.

The US, on the other hand, has demanded North Korea take more irreversible steps toward denuclearization before it receives any rewards.

Without signs of imminent economic benefits from the US, Kim lacks justification to persuade his people to give up the country’s nuclear weapons program, and there is no turning back for Kim, an expert said.

“The young leader may be facing pressure to prove he made the right choice about giving up the country’s nuclear weapons,” said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

Ending a year of threats and hostilities against South Korea and the US, Kim went on an extensive diplomatic offensive this year, meeting South Korean President Moon Jae-in three times, holding a summit with Trump and trying to mend soured ties with its traditional ally China.

In April, Kim signaled the end of Byungjin policy — the parallel pursuit of nuclear weapons and economic development — and adopted a new policy line aimed at focusing on developing the economy, which experts say was aimed at laying the groundwork for negotiating away its nuclear weapons.

At the June 12 summit with Trump, Kim committed to work toward “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. He even had Moon address some 150,000 residents in Pyongyang in September, during which Moon reaffirmed Kim’s commitment to denuclearization.

“There are now high expectations within North Korea that an improvement in inter-Korean relations and ongoing negotiations with the US will positively affect the North’s economy,” Cho said.

With the US adamant that sanctions be maintained against the North until substantial denuclearization, Kim faces difficulties in realizing his promise to his people, he said.

“North Korea cannot pull out of negotiations, but it cannot make advances in the denuclearization talks without being confident that it would lead to an economic development,” Cho said. “North Korea might need to see at least a sign of sanctions relief as it takes steps toward denuclearization.”

Kim dismantled a major nuclear test site in Punggye-ri in the presence of international journalists, returned the remains of US veterans killed during the 1950-53 Korean War and repatriated three US citizens who had been detained in the North.

But the measures are not seen as credible steps toward denuclearization in the eyes of Washington, which is why the US remains skeptical and reluctant to make concessions, such as the easing of sanctions.

Kim Young-hui, who defected to South Korea in 2002 and works as a research fellow at a state-run bank, said the third-generation dictator is different from his father and grandfather, and more conscious of how North Korean people see him.

Kim, therefore, needs an end-of-war declaration as well, perhaps more than sanctions relief.

“North Koreans had to endure long years of hunger for the country’s development of nuclear weapons — which was supposed to protect the country from attacks by the US,” she said. “But why should they give them up now? What can they gain in return? North Koreans need to be assured that the war is now over and that they don’t have to be worried about the US aggressions.”

“Kim might be carefully pondering what step he should take next as he feels that there is nothing he can gain from the negotiations.”

Moon and Kim promised to declare an end to the Korean War within the year, but the US has been reluctant to do so without progress in denuclearization. The North has moved away from calling for the end-of-war declaration to demanding the lifting of sanctions.

Why North Korea needs sanctions relief

Experts are divided on the impact of international sanctions on North Korea’s economy largely due to a lack of data, but analysts seem to agree that sanctions have taken a toll on the North to some extent.

North Korea has managed to keep its market prices and foreign currency exchange rate relatively stable, but that could soon be destabilized by a lack of signs of imminent sanctions relief, according to a report by the Institute for National Security Strategy.

North Korea’s foreign currency reserves held by those involved in market activities are keeping the economy afloat and offset the short-term impact of international sanctions against North Korea, according to Lim Soo-ho, a senior research fellow at the INSS.

There are about 450 markets in operation, where North Koreans trade agricultural products and consumer goods, an element of capitalism unofficially embraced by Kim since he took power in 2011.

“Economic players in North Korea are spending their dollars amid the expectation that sanctions could be eased, but foreign reserves in the North are highly likely to begin drying up next year if the deadlock in North Korea-US negotiations continues,” he said.

In the long term, sanctions — which ban imports of machinery and electricity, and limit imports of oil — will put the brakes on the North’s booming construction projects, such as its landmark Wonsan-Kalma coastal tourism project along the country’s east coast, according to the report.

But such a “reckless” way of keeping the economy afloat would not likely last long, according to Ko Myong-hyun, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

“North Korea is recklessly running its economy by using foreign reserves to promote domestic spending to minimize the negative impact of international sanctions against it,” Ko said.

This year, North Korea’s annual growth was negative 3.5 percent, according to figures released this July by the Bank of Korea. Annual growth is expected to be negative again next year.

North Korea has increasingly shown its frustration about sanctions. Through state-controlled media, North Korea even hinted at a return to the Byungjin policy, amid the continued diplomatic deadlock.

“It seems difficult for North Korea’s economy to be maintained in the coming years without sanctions relief. What is also worrying for the North is that it will take some time for sanctions relief to take effect,” Ko said. “For now, Kim appears to be waiting for Trump to get back to him with a better offer.”

Source: http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20181203000688

The post Kim Jong-un’s dilemma in nuclear talks first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Formal Ending Korean War.  Says N Korea willing to abolish all nuke weapons.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in yesterday called on the United States to move towards the nuclear-armed North’s demands for a declaration the Korean War is over, as the allies pursue increasingly different approaches towards Pyongyang.

Washington has shied away from a formal announcement that the 1950-53 conflict, when hostilities ceased with an armistice rather than a peace treaty, has ended, saying that the North must first take more steps towards giving up its atomic arsenal.

For its part Pyongyang — which long insisted it needed nuclear weapons to defend itself against a possible US invasion — has pledged only to work towards denuclearisation “of the Korean peninsula”, demanding simultaneous moves by Washington in return, with a peace declaration its first priority.

Moon emphasised North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s resolve to abandon nuclear and missile programmes, that the North pursued in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions, and focus on the economy if regime security is guaranteed.

“The North has stopped all nuclear and missile tests, dismantled its only nuclear test site and is now dismantling its missile engine test facilities, and is promising to take steps toward dismantling its Yongbyon nuclear complex if the US takes corresponding measures,” Moon told the BBC.

“Declaring the end of the war is a political declaration that the US would end decades of hostile relations with the North,” he said.

“Moving towards such a process is the corresponding measure the US should take,” he added, according to a transcript released by the presidential Blue House.

The comments, made ahead of Moon’s departure Saturday for a tour of European capitals, emphasise the increasing differences between Seoul and Washington, which has 28,500 troops stationed in the South to defend it from its neighbour.

Experts say the offers made by the North will have little impact on its military capabilities, and Pyongyang itself has said it has no further need to test its weapons.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has expressed “discontent” with an inter-Korean military pact reached during last month’s summit in a rare sign of disagreement between the allies.

Source: https://www.thedailystar.net/asia/news/moon-urges-us-move-1646374

The post Moon urges US Move first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

WITH just weeks to go before President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are expected to hold their first-ever summit, Pyongyang has taken aim at the US.

It has criticised what it called “misleading” claims that Trump’s policy of maximum political pressure and sanctions are what drove the North to the negotiating table.

The North’s official news agency quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman warning the claims are a “dangerous attempt” to ruin a budding détente on the Korean Peninsula after Kim’s summit late last month with South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

At the summit, Kim agreed to a number of measures aimed at improving North-South ties and indicated he is willing to discuss the denuclearisation of the peninsula, though exactly what that would entail and what conditions the North might require have not yet been explained.

Trump and senior US officials have suggested repeatedly that Washington’s tough policy toward North Korea, along with pressure on its main trading partner China, have played a decisive role in turning around what had been an extremely tense situation.

Donald Trump, left, and Kim Jong Un, right. Picture: APSource:AP

Just last year, as Kim was launching long-range missiles at a record pace and trading vulgar insults with Trump, it would have seemed unthinkable for the topic of denuclearisation to be on the table.

But the North’s statement on Sunday seemed to be aimed at strengthening Kim’s position going into his meeting with Trump. Pyongyang claims Kim himself is the driver of the current situation.

“The US is deliberately provoking the DPRK at the time when the situation on the Korean Peninsula is moving toward peace and reconciliation,” the spokesman was quoted as saying.

North Korea also warned Washington that claiming Pyongyang was forced into talks by US pressure risked returning the peninsula “back to square one”.

DPRK is short for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the North’s formal name.

Kim and Trump are expected to meet later this month or in early June.

Trump has indicated the date and place have been chosen and said he believes the Demilitarized Zone that divides the Koreas might be a good venue. Singapore was also believed to be a potential site.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, left, and South Korean President Moon Jae-in cross the military demarcation line to the South side at the border village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone, South Korea. Picture: APSource:AP

Experts are split over whether Kim’s statement made with Moon at the DMZ marks a unique opening for progress or a rehash of Pyongyang’s longstanding demand for security guarantees.

Sunday’s comments were among the very few the North has made since Trump agreed in March to the meeting.

The spokesman warned the US not to interpret Pyongyang’s willingness to talk as a sign of weakness.

He also criticised Washington for its ongoing “pressure and military threats” and its position that such pressure won’t be eased until North Korea gives up its nuclear weapons completely.

Before Trump meets Kim, Washington is hoping to gain the release of three Korean-Americans accused of anti-state activities.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, right, and South Korean President Moon Jae-in talk at the border village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone, South Korea. Picture: APSource:AP

Trump hinted the release of Kim Dong Chul, Kim Hak Song and Tony Kim was in the offing.

There was no sign of an imminent release on Sunday, though the men had reportedly been moved to the capital.

The White House, meanwhile, has announced a separate meeting between Trump and Moon at the White House on May 22 to “continue their close co-ordination on developments regarding the Korean Peninsula.”

Tensions have run high between the two men over the last year, with both leaders trading threats of war and colourful personal insults that sparked global concern.

In this image released by the White House, then-CIA director Mike Pompeo shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang, during a 2018 trip. Picture: APSource:AP

“We now have a date and we have a location. We’ll be announcing it soon,” Trump told reporters Friday from the White House South Lawn before departing for Dallas. He’s previously said the summit was planned for May or early June. A meeting with Kim seemed an outlandish possibility just a few months ago. But momentum for diplomacy has built this year as the rival Koreas have patched up ties.

But in a dramatic diplomatic turnaround, Kim vowed with Moon to seek denuclearisation and pursue a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War through a peace treaty with Seoul.

Kim also pledged to close its nuclear test site this month, which is said to be in very bad shape, and invited US experts and journalists to verify the move.

According to South Korea, Kim has said he’d be willing to give up his nukes if the United States commits to a formal end to the Korean War and pledges not to attack the North. But his exact demands for relinquishing weapons that his nation spent decades building remains unclear.

Trump said that withdrawing U.S. forces from South Korea is “not on the table.” Some 28,500 U.S. forces are based in the allied nation, a military presence that has been preserved to deter North Korea since the war ended in 1953 without a peace treaty.

“Now I have to tell you, at some point into the future, I would like to save the money,” Trump said later as he prepared to board Air Force One.

“You know we have 32,000 troops there but I think a lot of great things will happen but troops are not on the table. Absolutely.”

The New York Times reported that Trump has asked the Pentagon to prepare options plans for drawing down American troops.

It cited unnamed officials as saying that wasn’t intended to be a bargaining chip with Kim, but did reflect that a prospective peace treaty between the Koreas could diminish the need for U.S. forces in South Korea.

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Source: http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/north-koreas-unexpected-warning-to-us-before-donald-trump-and-kim-jongun-meet/news-story/9f28608e91d940b3dbb0b529ef69e4ad

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The post North Korea’s unexpected warning to US before Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un meet first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.