On Dec. 6, when Europe’s attention was focused on the risk of a Polish-Hungarian veto against the EU budget and recovery plan at the upcoming European Council of Dec. 10-11, Clément Beaune, the French Secretary of State for Europe, insisted in an interview that the remaining 25 member states should go ahead with a recovery plan without the two Central European countries.

“Our stance is clear. We will sacrifice neither the recovery plan nor the rule of law.” Beaune said.

In the same interview, the French politician threatened the EU with a veto against any Brexit deal that would not sufficiently protect France’s interests and the interests of its fishermen.

“If the deal is not good and does not respect our interests, especially for fishermen, France could, as any other member state, oppose it with a veto.”

After 4.5 years of negotiations and several “last deadlines” to avoid a hard Brexit on Dec. 31, at the end of the current transition period, the European Parliament had indicated a deal would need to be struck on Sunday, Dec. 20, at the latest if it was to have time to approve it. No deal was in sight on Sunday evening, and ten days before the end of the transition period, we still did not know whether there is going to be a deal preserving free trade between the UK and the EU.

Fisherman, Nicolas Bishop, on the Boulogne sur Mer based trawler “Jeremy Florent II” prepares to raise fishing nets off the coast of northern France in Boulogne-sur-Mer, northern France, Thursday, Dec. 10, 2020. – AP Photo/Michel Spingler

The uncertainty alone is very damaging for the economy, and it is a massive failure for both the UK and the EU. The three main areas of divergence between the UK and the EU are:

• Fishing rights: Regaining control of British waters was a key argument of Brexiteers, and the UK is not ready to keep the current quota system in place in exchange for access to the Single Market, while the EU claims access of EU fishermen to UK waters should be guaranteed for ten years. Although some progress was made last week, positions remained far apart on Sunday evening.
• “Level playing field”: The EU wanted to be able to impose tariffs unilaterally if it considers in the future that the UK has gone too far away from its standards. Such a demand is motivated by the UK’s refusal to commit to adopting new EU standards in the future. Progress has been made on this subject, negotiators having agreed both the UK and the EU could impose tariffs, but only after having gone through an arbitration procedure.
• The Irish border: An agreement was reached on the implementation of last year’s Withdrawal Agreement after the UK threatened to vote in a new law that would allow its government to violate the Irish backstop clause of this international treaty if required in the future. The UK argues that it may need to so for the sake of territorial unity between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

On Sunday evening, fishing rights remained the main obstacle to an agreement being finalized. However, France still did not seem ready to back down on its demands, which are totally unacceptable from a British perspective. While fishing is a very tiny part of the economy on both sides of the Channel (far below 1 percent of GDP), the EU has made an agreement on fishing a precondition for a free trade agreement.

On Dec. 13, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had warned that the issue of fishing was putting at risk the prospect of a post-Brexit trade deal.

According to The Telegraph, President Emmanuel Macron expects Prime Minister Boris Johnson to cave in and accept the EU’s conditions after the Jan. 1 deadline because the troubles caused by a hard Brexit will be hugely unpopular. Whether or not this is a ‘massive miscalculation’ as The Telegraph claims, it is a dangerous game for the whole EU and something France ought to discuss with other EU countries first.

Emmanuel Macron reportedly believes that the UK will cave and give in to France’s demands on fishing rights to avoid a hard Brexit.  -AP Images

It is worth noting that a likely reason why the implementation of the Irish backstop had to be renegotiated with the British was that President Macron once talked at a press conference of the Irish “backstop” as a tool that would be used in future trade negotiations to force the UK to keep its waters open.

In 2017, Macron overtly warned that he wanted the EU to have a very tough approach in trade negotiations with the UK. Indeed, Macron then explained, a good deal for the UK “will be too big an incentive for others to leave”.

“People were lied to, and their choice is impossible to implement,” Macron also said in 2019.

France’s punitive and selfish approach to Brexit negotiations is thus jeopardizing profits made by the whole EU in its trade with the UK. The EU-27’s trade surplus with the UK was almost €90 billion in 2019, so the EU as a whole has more to lose than the UK in case no trade agreement is finalized at the end of the transition period.

Although Germany is by far the biggest trade partner for most Central European countries, the UK is important too. It is, for example, Poland’s second-largest export market with a 7 percent share, and Poland has a trade surplus with the UK in both goods and services. Central European countries also have an interest in a deal being struck between the UK and the EU to guarantee the future status of their nationals working in significant numbers in the UK.

With the recession already caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the last thing Europeans needed this year was the ongoing uncertainty over future trade relations with the UK. A hard Brexit on Dec. 31 due to Macron focusing on French interests and his will to deter others from exiting the bloc would be even worse.

Source: https://rmx.news/article/commentary/france-putting-the-eu-at-risk-of-hard-brexit-for-fishing-rights-central-europe-wont-benefit-from

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A Brexit deal is now very likely to be “EU-only” rather than a “mixed” deal, the tweet here said, citing sources.

The post European Union looks to fast-track any Brexit deal – Sky News reporter tweet first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

This is a crucial week in the Brexit negotiations. Now where have you heard that one before?

You know the script by now: both sides want a deal, progress has been made but significant obstacles remain, the EU must respect UK sovereignty, the UK must respect EU free market integrity.

Time, though, is now really (really) running out.

The transition period ends in just six weeks on December 31 and not only do both sides have to agree a deal before then but also get it ratified in both the UK and EU Parliaments.

November then is a critical month.

Ireland’s foreign minister Simon Coveney described this as “move week”, a deal still “very doable”, he said, but “very difficult”.

The UK’s chief negotiator David Frost and his team are meeting their EU counterparts in Brussels in an attempt to overcome what have been the same sticking points for months – fishing and the so-called level playing field (deciding which rules on state aid but also workers’ rights and environmental standards the UK should follow after it leaves).

On his arrival in Brussels, Mr Frost tweeted that there “has been some progress in a positive direction in recent days…But we may not succeed.”

So what needs to change?

Fishing

It may be drop in the ocean economically but fishing is now perhaps the biggest obstacle threatening to sink these talks.

The UK is still bound by the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) until it leaves on December 31.

The CFP is detested by the British fishing industry who believe the system of quotas introduced in the 1970s severely limits their ability to fish in UK waters.

They see Brexit as a chance to reverse that and take back control of who fishes in Britain’s bountiful waters.

• Trouble on the horizon or a passing storm? Fishermen prepare for the choppy waters of a no-deal Brexit

• Why the UK’s fishing industry could be the issue that scuppers a Brexit deal with the EU

The EU – particularly, but not exclusively, France and Spain – wants to maintain the status quo and continue to fish at the same rate in British waters even after Brexit.

The UK wants to be an independent coastal nation, deciding for itself who accesses its waters and negotiate fishing quotas each year with the EU, just as Norway currently does.

It is a point on which the EU has already accepted it will probably have to budge, Michel Barnier saying in June: “The EU wants the status quo, the UK wants to change everything…

“If we want an agreement we have to discuss somewhere in between these positions.”

Talks however on this have barely progressed since the summer.

‘Level playing field’

The EU wants to see movement from the UK in the negotiations on the so-called “level playing field”.

In essence, the level playing field refers to a set of rules used to stop businesses in one country (in this case the UK) undercutting businesses in another country (eg. the EU) on things such as state subsidies (the government intervening to help struggling industries), environmental and workers rights.

The EU wants to ensure trade with the UK is fair and competitive and believes a level playing field is essential to avoid tariffs.

It insists any trade deal must be accompanied by the UK adopting the EU’s rules on subsidizing businesses (state aid) or at the very least following rules similar to theirs.

The UK, however, does not want EU law to be the basis of establishing common standards or be under the jurisdiction of EU institutions.

Boris Johnson has said he’s not asking for special treatment – he just wants a basic free trade deal like other countries have with the EU.

The EU, however, says it’s not that simple because the UK is one of the world’s biggest economies and unlike Canada, for instance, the UK is next door to the EU and already deeply integrated with European markets.

These aren’t the only stumbling blocks but unless they are overcome a deal won’t be possible.

No deal will mean the UK and the EU trading on less lucrative World Trade Organisation terms with tariffs and quotas, which would be economically damaging to both sides.

Neither side has given a hard deadline for reaching a deal that would avoid such tariffs and quotas but any deal not agreed in the next two weeks risks leaving too little time for both the UK and the EU parliaments to scrutinize and ratify.

The EU Parliament meets for the final time on December 16.

Dominic Cummings departed No 10 carrying a box on FridayCredit: Yui Mok/PA

With talks now at crunch point, Downing Street has been quick to dismiss any suggestion that the UK could soften its stance in light of Dominic Cummings‘ departure.

Mr. Cummings was until last week the PM’s chief advisor and was crucially the architect of the Vote Leave campaign.

Mr. Johnson’s spokesperson said: “There will be no change in our approach.

“As David Frost set out over the weekend, we are working to get a deal but only one that is compatible with our sovereignty and takes back control of trade, our waters, and our borders.”

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  Source: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-11-16/what-needs-to-change-for-the-uk-and-eu-to-make-a-brexit-deal

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The post What needs to change for the UK and EU to make a Brexit deal? first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.