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The next German government’s foreign policy

Council on Geostrategy — Fri, 12 Nov 2021 10:04:21 +0000

When it comes to foreign policy in Germany, the differences between the mainstream political parties are few and the level of public interest low. Foreign policy barely featured as an issue in the recent federal election campaign or in the televised debates between the three leading candidates for the chancellorship. It will not be a showstopper in the negotiations to form the next government, either.

Those negotiations have just started. A three-party coalition will be required and the two smaller parties, the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP), have begun by talking together bilaterally before engaging with the Social Democrats (SDP), who are now the largest party in the Bundestag. It is not a certainty that a coalition of these three parties will be formed and the FDP, in particular, will want to keep open the possibility of an agreement with the Christian Democrats instead. But initially at any rate the momentum is clearly with the so-called ‘traffic light’ option.

It will be an unusual coalition: partly because it will, for the first time, involve three parties, but also because the party providing the chancellor will represent only around one-quarter of the vote and the two other parties jointly about the same. If the two smaller parties are able to combine together, as they are currently trying to do, their influence will be significantly stronger.

This will have consequences for the new coalition’s position on some foreign policy issues. Both the Greens and the FDP take human rights more seriously than the mercantilist SPD and will wish the next government to be more robust in its criticism of Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). They will not, in either case, go as far as to demand trade boycotts or sanctions, but they will expect Germany to speak up more on the Uyghurs’ plight and perhaps put pressure on German companies with investments in Xinjiang to do more to combat forced labour.

They will however face a dilemma over Nordstream II, the new pipeline bringing Russian gas across the Baltic to Germany, which is about to start operating. Both parties expressed opposition to it during the election campaign albeit without specifying what exactly they would do once it was built. The SPD will be reluctant to see it mothballed, so the chances are that it will go ahead as planned.

But it will not be just Russia and the PRC whose domestic policies will cause difficulties with the new German government. Turkey’s too will come under increased scrutiny, as will those of some of the European Union’s (EU) Central and Eastern European members, notably Hungary and Poland. An SPD/Green/FDP German government will not be shy of linking EU countries’ adherence to the rule of law with the disbursement of EU funds.

There will also be tensions in the field of defence. The FDP is in favour of increasing defence expenditure, while the SDP and the Greens are not. Germany is in theory committed to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) target of spending 2% of national income on defence. NATO estimates that Germany will spend 1.53% in 2021; the last government planned to gradually increase this figure. It seems improbable that an SPD/Green/FDP coalition would actually hit 2% – flat-lining at around 1.5% seems more likely.

More difficult though will be the decision on whether to maintain United States (US) nuclear weapons on German soil; and whether to equip the Tornado replacement aircraft with the capability for delivering free-fall nuclear bombs. Nuclear burden-sharing has been a key element in NATO’s deterrent strategy and if Germany were, as the Greens and some in the SPD want, to try to opt-out of direct involvement in it, this would put additional strain on the transatlantic alliance.

What will not change under any new German government will be a purported enthusiasm for more European defence. There will be frequent calls for a European army, for a European ‘defence union’ and for European ‘strategic autonomy’. But, as in the past, there is unlikely to be much clarity over what these terms mean or what concrete policies would be required to achieve them. This is an area where there has long been a marked contrast between what German politicians say about the EU and how they actually behave within it.

Another issue to be resolved in the coalition negotiations will be who gets what job. For the last 50 years, the German Foreign Minister has been a member of the minority party in a coalition government (there has not been a Christian Democrat one since 1966); for much of this time, the Foreign Minister was also the Vice-Chancellor. But it is not now a priority for either the Greens or the FDP. The latter want above all the Finance Ministry and a veto right over economic policy. The former want the Environment and Transport ministries.

Annalena Baerbock, the Greens’ candidate for the chancellorship, is widely tipped for the Foreign Ministry. But it is her co-party leader Robert Habeck, who is expected to be Environment Minister and Vice-Chancellor. The only former Green Foreign Minister, Joschka Fischer, was a notable success in the role and was personally responsible for getting his party to endorse Germany’s participation in NATO operations in Kosovo and Afghanistan. Whether Baerbock would have the same clout is unclear.

And what of the next German government’s attitude to the United Kingdom (UK)? Initially at any rate it will probably be benign neglect. Interest in Britain in Germany is declining and the commercial relationship is fading: by the end of the year, Britain will not, according to some forecasts, any longer be among Germany’s top ten trading partners. Olaf Scholz as Chancellor is unlikely to find Boris Johnson a congenial partner: their political styles are diametrically opposed and his priorities will be to establish relationships with Emmanuel Macron and Joe Biden. The German government will also be suspicious of any attempt by the UK to use bilateral contacts to bypass the EU.

At the working level however cooperation will continue, including in defence. The British Army retains a small residual presence in Germany in the form of a joint river crossing unit. The German Navy might in due course be tempted by the idea of participating in a British carrier strike group deployment, as the Netherlands is currently doing. But the performance of the British economy will be the key factor in determining the nature of the future UK-German relationship. Fuel shortages and empty supermarket shelves currently dominate German perceptions of Britain. But if the British economic recovery continues and the UK finds a successful role for itself outside the EU, then Germany, for all its regrets about Brexit, will treat Britain as a serious partner.

Sir Paul Lever was Her Majesty’s Ambassador to Germany (1997-2003) and Chair of the Joint Intelligence Committee (1994-1996). His most recent book is Berlin Rules: Europe and the German Way (I.B. Tauris, 2017).

Source: https://www.geostrategy.org.uk/britains-world/more-of-the-same-the-next-german-governments-foreign-policy/

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Russia and China in terrifying plot ‘to form an alliance against the West’

Luke Hawker — Tue, 19 Feb 2019 00:53:04 +0000

RUSSIA will turn its back on Europe for good and join forces with China “to form an alliance against the West” according to reports in Politico.

Moscow no longer cares about “European integration or moving towards Europe” instead it is open to an allegiance with the world superpower, according to one leading expert. Tensions continue to rise between the world’s biggest economies following the ongoing trade war between Washington and Beijing, alongside continued talk of a ‘European army’ which threatens to undermine NATO. Bruno Maçães a former Europe minister for Portugal told Politico that talks were already underway behind the scenes between Russia and China.

Mr Maçães said: “In the halls of the Kremlin these days, it’s all about China — and whether or not Moscow can convince Beijing to form an alliance against the West.”

He added: “Russia’s view of China has shifted significantly over the past five years.

“Moscow has abandoned any hope that the Chinese economy is an example it might emulate. Instead, foreign policy experts now talk of how Russia can use China to further its geopolitical goals.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin (Image: GETTY)

This idea is backed in the annual worldwide threat assessment of the US International community, which warned threats will “expand and diversify” citing Russia and China as the chief danger.

The security report published last month also highlighted the growing relationship between Moscow and Beijing stating it was “more aligned than at any point since the mid-1950s”.

The report stated: “Threats to US national security will expand and diversify in the coming year, driven in part by China and Russia as they respectively compete more intensely with the United States and its traditional allies and partners.”

Russia was identified as a danger by the Annual worldwide threat assessment (Image: GETTY)

The analysis concludes: “China and Russia are more aligned than at any point since the mid-1950s, and the relationship is likely to strengthen in the coming year as some of their interests and threat perceptions converge, particularly regarding perceived US unilateralism and interventionism and Western promotion of democratic values and human rights.”

The trade war impasse between Washington and China has seen the US threaten to impose further tariff rates on $200bn worth of Chinese imports from 10 percent to 25 percent if the two sides do not strike a deal by March 1.

Meanwhile, this growing discontent between US president Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen to only strengthen ties between China and the Kremlin.

US president Donald Trump is locked in a trade war with China (Image: GETTY)

Mr Maçães added: “Seen from Moscow, there is no resistance left to a new alliance led by China. And now that Washington has imposed tariffs on Chinese exports, Russia hopes China will finally understand that its problem is Washington, not Moscow.”

The former Europe minister also stated that a new allegiance between the superpowers would mean “Washington would feel under attack” and Europe “intimidated and unsettled”.

He added: “This alliance, if it becomes concrete, would overturn how we do global politics. Imagine an international crisis in which Russia and China suddenly emerge as a single bloc.

“The impact would be considerable, and to some extent unpredictable: Psychologically, in the mind of the West, it would combine the fear associated with Russia with the apparent invulnerability of China. Washington would feel under attack; Europe, intimidated and unsettled.”

Meanwhile, the US and Europe remain at loggerheads after Washington accused Europe of trying to break sanctions on Iran.

In the 2015 treaty, Tehran agreed to curbs on its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions.

However, the vice-president of the US Mike Pence, told a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East conference last week: “Sadly, some of our leading European partners have not been nearly as cooperative.

“In fact, they have led the effort to create mechanisms to break up our sanctions.”

Source: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1088810/russia-news-china-US-kremlin-europe

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Brexit is a ‘DEEP WOUND’ for the European Union – Merkel admits damage of UK’s exit

Joe Barnes - Brussels Correspondent — Tue, 13 Nov 2018 05:21:07 +0000

BREXIT is a “deep wound” in the side of the European Union, warned German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she gave a speech to the EU Parliament in Strasbourg.

The German Chancellor told the European Union’s Parliament of the damage done to the Brussels project after Britain decided to quit the bloc. Her statement came as part of a so-called ‘Future of Europe’ debate, where EU leaders are invited to Strasbourg to deliver a speech on their outlook for the bloc. Mrs Merkel was given a standing ovation by MEPs as she entered the chamber with the Parliament’s president Antoni Tajani.

Mr Tajani thanked her for taking part in the “very important” debate, adding: “We need to change Europe but would be a big change to destroy Europe.”

The German Chancellor said: “The United Kingdom is a country that is soon leaving, this is a deep wound.”

She then praised Brussels negotatior Michel Barnier, adidng: “We can all applaud him for the work he has done.”

Mrs Merkel warned MEPs that the EU’s values are being challenged by populists across the entire Continent.

She said: “We are seeing our values called into question.”

Appealing for EU unity, she urged countries to work together more closely and ditch their “national egos” for the benefit of the bloc.

Angela Merkel arrives at the EU Parliament in Strasbourg to deliver ‘future of Europe’ speech (Image: EbS)

She said: “Europe can only be a voice to the world if it works together. Therefor we have to overcome national egoism.

“We took too long to realize the issue of refugees is a common problem in Europe.

“Respecting others is not in contradiction with serving our self-interest.”

The German Chancellor admit her own mistakes in allowing over one million migrants into Germany during the 2015 migration crisis.

She told MEPs, Germany should have pressed other member states to accept their own share of migrants.

She said: “Took far too long, to realise the issue of refugees was an issue for the whole of Europe and not just Germany.”

During pauses in her speech, a number of MEPs can be heard booing.

Mrs Merkel showed delight and said it was “great” that she was annoying people while in the EU Parliament.

The German also backed French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a “real European army”.

She prompted heckles from the Ukip MEPs when she suggested Brussels should move to create a “true European army”.

She said: “We have to look at the vision of one day creating a real true European army.

“I am not saying anything against NATO, we can be a supplement to NATO.”

Under her plans, there would be a ‘European Security Council with a rotating presidency.

Jean-Claude Juncker described Brexit as a ‘historical mistake’ (Image: EbS)

Speaking after Mrs Merkel, Jean-Claude Juncker said: “we are not seeking to punish the UK.”

The European Commission President added: “Britain played a major role in the liberty and freedom of this Continent.

“But this is not a reason to leave the great history between the British isles and the EU.

“I think that leaving is a historical error.”

And once again, the end of Mr Juncker’s speech was met with a number of heckles.

The European People’s Party’s Manfred Weber discussed the “consequences” of Brexit, insisting the argument of Brexiteers had been “very fruitful” while demanding their sovereignty back.

The German, who is vying to replace Mr Juncker as Commission President, said: “With Brexit, it has all shown us this argument – ‘we want our soveringty back’ – it works, it is very fruitful.

“We need a new approach, we have to build a bridge between a decision-making process and the people.”

Source: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1044759/EU-news-Angela-Merkel-Germany-European-Parliament-future-of-Europe-speech-live

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Germany’s Merkel joins France’s Macron in call for European Union army

Richard Lough — Tue, 13 Nov 2018 01:25:32 +0000

German Chancellor Angela Merkel called on Tuesday for an integrated European Union military, echoing language used by French President Emmanuel Macron last week that infuriated U.S. President Donald Trump.

Merkel told the European Parliament such an army would not undermine the U.S.-led military alliance NATO but would be complementary to it, remarks that were met with loud applause in the legislature though also with boos from nationalist members.

“The times when we could rely on others are over. This means we Europeans have to take our fate fully into our own hands,” Merkel said.

“We should work on a vision of one day establishing a real European army.”

Macron’s call, which reflected a broad trend of EU thinking but is not universally accepted, was meant to show European willingness to meet U.S. demands that Europe do more for its own security and rely less on America’s security umbrella.

However, on Twitter on Nov. 9, Trump accused Macron of seeking to develop the EU‘s own military to defend itself from the United States, which EU and French officials said was a misunderstanding.

On Tuesday Trump took aim at Macron again, blasting France over its near defeat to Germany in two world wars, its wine industry and Macron’s approval ratings.

In his remarks on Nov. 6, Macron had been referring to computer hackers who could attack Europe from anywhere, including from inside the United States, officials said.

First proposed in the 1950s and taken up four years ago by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker as a response to fraying EU unity, an EU armed forces is seen as strengthening the global power of the bloc, which is an economic giant but a geopolitical minnow.

With Britain’s pending departure from the EU, there may be more momentum for remaining member states to find common ground on defense, although there remain divisions.

Supporters of a European defense union say the EU has struggled in military and humanitarian missions in the Balkans, Libya and Africa, and that it was caught off guard by Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

“No place for nationalism”

Merkel’s address comes at a time when the EU is searching for answers to a U.S. president who views the EU with contempt, to the rise of illiberal democracies and nationalist parties within its borders, and to Britain’s vote to leave the bloc.

She made appeals for tolerance and solidarity, saying “nationalism and egotism should no longer have a place in Europe” to a sustained applause.

As a deadline looms for Italy’s eurosceptic government to re-submit budget plans to the European Union, Merkel said the euro zone would only work if all member states meet their treaty responsibilities.

“Our common currency can only function if every individual member fulfills their responsibility for sustainable finances,” Merkel said, adding that otherwise the strength and the stability of the euro zone were at risk.

“We want to extend a hand to Italy,” she later said. “But Italy also agreed to all sorts of rules and it can’t just tear them up.”

Merkel dominated European politics for over a decade, but she is now a diminished force, weakened by the fragility of her coalition and the rise of the far-right in Germany. She announced in late October that she would step down as leader of her party, though remain chancellor.

Her foot-dragging over far-reaching reforms to the euro zone has frustrated the energetic Macron. In the summer, they agreed to a budget for the single currency area but failed to deliver any big-bang reforms. Few concrete steps have been taken since.

On Tuesday, she kept her vision for deeper monetary cooperation vague: “We need to develop our monetary policy better. We’re working on a banking union,” she said. “We have to look at responsibility and control, a banking union and then later a European insurance system.”

Merkel also trained her sights on Poland and Hungary, two countries whose leaders other member states worry are undercutting democratic institutions.

The European Parliament in September voted to sanction Hungary for flouting EU rules on democracy, civil rights and corruption, while concerns have grown in the EU over Warsaw’s accelerated judicial overhaul.

“Solidarity is always linked to commitments of the community, and the principles based on rule of law,” Merkel said.

Source: https://globalnews.ca/news/4660528/angela-merkel-european-army/

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European Union gives impetus to joint defense plan

BBC — Mon, 13 Nov 2017 06:41:30 +0000

Image copyright AFP

Image caption Latvian troops: The Baltic states near Russia are committed to the EU plan

Most of the European Union’s member states have signed up to a plan for closer defence co-operation.

The UK and Republic of Ireland are among five states not participating.

The other 23 are now committed to the permanent structured military co-operation (“Pesco”) plan to boost their defence budgets and joint capabilities.

EU forces have gone to some hotspots, including the Central African Republic and Kosovo. But in some cases they have been short of funding and equipment.

Under Pesco, each country has to provide a plan for national contributions.

The participants will be backed by a European Defence Fund that should be worth €5bn (£4.5bn; $5.8bn) annually after 2020. The money will be used for weapons research and equipment purchases.

Image copyrightAFP

Image captionAn EU force went to help stabilise the troubled Central African Republic

Deployment decisions would remain in the hands of national governments, an EU Council statement said. And Pesco does not replace member states’ participation in Nato or UN missions.

No ‘European army’

Jonathan Marcus – BBC defence correspondent

This agreement takes formal defence co-operation in the European Union to a new level. Britain, one of Europe’s most significant military players – and the one most sceptical about parallel EU defence structures to Nato – has not signed up since it is on the way out of the EU. Opponents of the EU in Britain will seize upon this as yet another step towards a “European army”.

This is about increased investment in defence and developing common military capabilities. There is no “European army”, in the same sense that there is actually no “Nato army”, it simply means that national military capabilities that exercise together can be brought under a single command at a time of crisis.

Indeed deploying troops “into harm’s way” is the ultimate exercise of national sovereignty and it is likely to remain jealously guarded. And better military capabilities for EU nations should clearly mean better capabilities for Nato too.

UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said the UK saw promise in Pesco and pledged to be “supportive” from the outside.

“We are there, like a flying buttress to support the cathedral,” he told reporters.

US President Donald Trump has urged America’s European Nato allies to spend more on their own defence, arguing that they rely too much on US protection.

Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine in 2014 alarmed EU members that were once part of the Russian-dominated Soviet bloc.

Russia accuses the EU and Nato of unfriendly and threatening expansion up to its borders.

Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41971867

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