Eurozone crisis: German output slumps AGAIN – fears grow for bloc’s largest economy

Paul Withers — Thu, 07 Feb 2019 13:05:23 +0000

GERMAN industrial output surprisingly fell in December for the fourth consecutive month, putting the eurozone on high alert and increasing concerns around Europe’s biggest economy.

The latest data from the country’s Federal Statistics Office revealed industrial output was down 0.4 percent on November. This was in complete contrast to a forecast from Reuters for an increase of 0.7 percent. Industrial output was also down 3.9 percent on the same month a year earlier.

The latest blow to the economy in Germany was driven by continued struggles in the construction sector, where activity shrank by 4.1 percent.

The Federal Statistics Office said the motor sector – vital to Germany’s economy but has been a drag because new emissions standards translated into fewer new vehicle registrations – rebounded as output rose more than seven percent.

The figure total for November was revised up to a fall of 1.3 percent from a previously reported drop of 1.9 percent.

Thomas Gitzel of VP Bank Group, warned not to expect an upturn in the German economy anytime soon.

Eurozone crisis: Angela Merkel has seen the German economy hit by a series of blows this year (Image: GETTY)

He said: “A positive GDP reading in the fourth quarter of 2018 now looks tight.

“A positive industry reading would have reduced the chance of a negative GDP reading in the fourth quarter.”

It is the latest in a series of blows for Germany’s economy – valued at £3trillion – as it struggles to rebound from struggles in 2018.

Last week, the country’s manufacturing sector plunged into contraction territory, dropping to 49.7 points in January from 51.1 in December, according to the latest figures from IHS Markit.

Eurozone crisis: Deutsche Bank warned Germany is ‘drifting towards recession’ (Image: GETTY)

On Wednesday, Deutsche Bank warned the country’s economy is under serious threat of hurtling towards recession.

Germany’s largest lender expects Eurozone’s largest economy to contract further during this quarter, with new business surveys pointing towards souring moods at companies and worsening expectations for new orders.

Deutsche Bank economists, including Sebastian Becker, wrote in a report: “The start of the German economy into 2019 has been a major disappointment so far.

“The development of several key cyclical indicators is telling us that the German economy is drifting towards recession right now.”

Deutsche Bank economists have not yet refined their one percent forecast growth for this year as they await fourth quarter data to be released by the German statistics office on February 22.

Poor results would put Germany into a state of recession after its economy shrank by 0.2 percent in the third quarter, largely due to a continued slump in its lucrative car sector.

Deutsche Bank is expecting the same 0.2 percent contraction to start off 2019.

Source: https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1083993/eurozone-latest-germany-output-german-economy-recession-eu-news

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What is the future of the European Union?

Catherine E. De Vries — Sun, 11 Mar 2018 03:29:23 +0000

The European Union (EU) is facing turbulent times. It is plagued by deep divisions over how to shape its future. Over half a century of integration has created a profound interconnectedness between the political, economic, and social fates of member states. At the same time, however, the fortunes of member states have started to diverge dramatically. The Eurozone crisis for example unmasked deep structural imbalances across the Union.

The political fault lines are widening. Today, they crosscut the continent from North to South on economy and austerity, and from East to West on migration and human rights. These developments have also left a mark on public opinion. Bruised by the Eurozone and refugee crises, large parts of the public have come to doubt the competence and integrity of their political and financial masters in Brussels and at home. Eurosceptic sentiment is on the rise. It is no longer a phenomenon tied to small segments of society, extremist political parties or specific economic cycles.

For a long time public opinion was viewed as largely irrelevant for the course of European integration. Elites could pursue further integrative steps with little regard for what the public wanted. Today, leaders in Brussels and Europe’s capitals are confronted with a new and challenging political reality: the unprecedented development of European governance has led to greater public contestation, yet at the same time the EU is more reliant on public support for its continued legitimacy than ever before.

What exactly do we mean by Eurosceptic public opinion? Is it the driver of recent Eurosceptic party success, or do national conditions and evaluations play a more important role? And finally, when does Eurosceptic public opinion have the ability to constrain the preferences of elites who shape jurisdictional choices in Europe? These are important questions for every student or observer of European politics.

Euroscepticism is not a stand-alone phenomenon. It is deeply rooted in and framed by people’s national experiences. Euroscepticism essentially boils down to a comparison between the benefits of the status quo of membership and those associated with the alternative state, one’s country being outside the EU. It takes shape in conversation with one’s national reference point, is there a viable alternative to membership? When people are more optimistic about their country’s ability to deliver, they become more Eurosceptic, and vice versa. This insight is important as it helps us understand why support for the EU remains relatively high in bailout-battered member states that have experienced some of the worst effects of the crisis, like Ireland or Spain, while Euroscepticism is on the rise in countries that have benefited enormously from the Single Market and/or the Euro, and weathered the crisis relatively well, such as Germany or the Netherlands. Yet, public opinion cannot be simply characterized as Eurosceptic or not. Rather it consists of different types. Distinguishing between these types is important as they translate into very different policy priorities, vote choices and preferences for EU reform.

Featured image credit: EU flags in front of the Berlaymont building, head office of the European Commission by Amio Cajander. CC-BY-SA-2.0 via Wikimedia Commons.

Catherine E. De Vries is a Professor of Politics at the Department of Government at the University of Essex. She is the author of Euroscepticism and the Future of European Integration.

Source: https://blog.oup.com/2018/03/future-european-union-euroscepticism/

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The post What is the future of the European Union? first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Eurozone crisis - Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association

Eurozone crisis: German output slumps AGAIN – fears grow for bloc’s largest economy

What is the future of the European Union?