Federal Statistics Office (Germany) - Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association

Eurozone crisis: German output slumps AGAIN – fears grow for bloc’s largest economy

Paul Withers — Thu, 07 Feb 2019 13:05:23 +0000

GERMAN industrial output surprisingly fell in December for the fourth consecutive month, putting the eurozone on high alert and increasing concerns around Europe’s biggest economy.

The latest data from the country’s Federal Statistics Office revealed industrial output was down 0.4 percent on November. This was in complete contrast to a forecast from Reuters for an increase of 0.7 percent. Industrial output was also down 3.9 percent on the same month a year earlier.

The latest blow to the economy in Germany was driven by continued struggles in the construction sector, where activity shrank by 4.1 percent.

The Federal Statistics Office said the motor sector – vital to Germany’s economy but has been a drag because new emissions standards translated into fewer new vehicle registrations – rebounded as output rose more than seven percent.

The figure total for November was revised up to a fall of 1.3 percent from a previously reported drop of 1.9 percent.

Thomas Gitzel of VP Bank Group, warned not to expect an upturn in the German economy anytime soon.

Eurozone crisis: Angela Merkel has seen the German economy hit by a series of blows this year (Image: GETTY)

He said: “A positive GDP reading in the fourth quarter of 2018 now looks tight.

“A positive industry reading would have reduced the chance of a negative GDP reading in the fourth quarter.”

It is the latest in a series of blows for Germany’s economy – valued at £3trillion – as it struggles to rebound from struggles in 2018.

Last week, the country’s manufacturing sector plunged into contraction territory, dropping to 49.7 points in January from 51.1 in December, according to the latest figures from IHS Markit.

Eurozone crisis: Deutsche Bank warned Germany is ‘drifting towards recession’ (Image: GETTY)

On Wednesday, Deutsche Bank warned the country’s economy is under serious threat of hurtling towards recession.

Germany’s largest lender expects Eurozone’s largest economy to contract further during this quarter, with new business surveys pointing towards souring moods at companies and worsening expectations for new orders.

Deutsche Bank economists, including Sebastian Becker, wrote in a report: “The start of the German economy into 2019 has been a major disappointment so far.

“The development of several key cyclical indicators is telling us that the German economy is drifting towards recession right now.”

Deutsche Bank economists have not yet refined their one percent forecast growth for this year as they await fourth quarter data to be released by the German statistics office on February 22.

Poor results would put Germany into a state of recession after its economy shrank by 0.2 percent in the third quarter, largely due to a continued slump in its lucrative car sector.

Deutsche Bank is expecting the same 0.2 percent contraction to start off 2019.

Source: https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1083993/eurozone-latest-germany-output-german-economy-recession-eu-news

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Germany recession ‘NOW LIKELY’ – Berlin hit with SHOCK economic forecast

Levi Winchester — Thu, 10 Jan 2019 12:01:00 +0000

A RECESSION in Germany “now seems likely” as the economic powerhouse of Europe continues to be hit with a raft of disappointing financial data.

Germany news: An economist has warned a recession in Germany ‘now seems likely’ (Image: GETTY)

The gloomy forecast for the financial infrastructure of Berlin came from Stefan Schilbe of HSBC, who described recent downcast economic data from Germany as both “bad and unexpected”. Fears of an economic collapse have intensified in recent weeks after figures released back in November revealed the German economy shrunk for the first time since 2015. Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter by 0.2 percent, according to the Federal Statistical Office. Economists are now warning of a downward trend continuing after a slew of weak economic data continues to point toward a cooldown in Europe’s most powerful nation.

A recession is defined by economists as GDP falling for two consecutive quarters.

Mr Schilbe told Business Insider: “The decline was broad-based across sectors, with no bright spots.

“Manufacturing fell by 1.8 percent month-on-month with the consumer goods sector once again being the major drag.

“A technical recession in German industry now seems likely.”

One of the major stumbling blocks for the German economy is understood to have been disruption to levels of car production.

New pollution tests that were introduced back in September are thought to have dented finances after some car models were not given enough time to approve new registration, forcing manufacturers to throttle production.

Yesterday saw Germany hit by weaker than expected industrial output figures for the third consecutive month.

Data released on Tuesday by the Federal Statistics Office in Germany showed industrial output fell by 1.9 percent on the month in November, lower than the 0.3 percent increase that had been forecast.

The output figure for October was revised down to a fall of 0.8 percent from a previously reported drop of 0.5 percent.

The Federal Statistics Office will publish preliminary GDP growth data for the fourth quarter and 2018 as a whole on Tuesday next week.

Germany news: Angela Merkel is the current Chancellor of Germany (Image: GETTY)

Peter Altmaier, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, last month lowered the government’s growth forecast for 2018 to around 1.5 to 1.6 percent, down from the previous estimate of 1.8 percent.

Earlier this month, a new survey showed the manufacturing sector in Germany slowed once more with new orders falling at the fastest rate in four years.

Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of the economy, tumbled to a 33-month low of 51.5 in December, down from 51.8 in November.

The number is inching closer to the 50.0 level which marks a contraction.

It was the eleventh time in 2018 that the manufacturing index fell.

Phil Smith, principal economist at IHS Markit, said: “With things having got a little too hot at the end of 2017 a correction was inevitable, but the extent of the slowdown has been somewhat a surprise.

“The darkening global economic picture has had ramifications for Germany’s outwardly focused manufacturing sector over the course of 2018, while the sequence of headwinds in the car industry in the latter stages of the year has been a further restricting factor.”

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