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EU seeking to renew high-profile meetings with Israel

Israel National News — Sat, 29 Aug 2020 03:01:33 +0000

European foreign ministers seeking to reinstate annual meeting of EU-Israel Association Council after Israel suspends sovereignty plan.

European Union flag

Several European foreign ministers are seeking to reinstate the annual high-profile meeting of the EU-Israel Association Council, after Israel suspended its plans to apply sovereignty over parts of Judea and Samaria as part of its agreement to normalize ties with the United Arab Emirates, Haaretz reported on Friday.

The proposal to renew the meetings, which stopped in 2013 due to political tensions over European policy concerning Judea and Samaria and pressure from pro-Palestinian groups, was presented this week during Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi’s visit to Germany, where he participated in an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers, the report said.

The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell has backed the proposal, which Israel is looking into and is still pending formal approval by all member states.

The association agreements signed between Israel and the European Union in 1995 call for an annual meeting of Israeli and EU foreign ministers, which was last held in July 2012. Israel canceled its participation in the summit planned for 2013, citing EU guidelines stipulating that agreements with Israel would not apply to Judea, Samaria and eastern Jerusalem.

In December 2017, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attended a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, but only at the informal invite of Lithuania and against protocol, spurring outrage by member states and the EU’s then-foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, who invited Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Mahmoud Abbas for a visit in response.

EU officials have lately been working behind the scenes to advance a meeting of the Association Council, as part of a carrot-and-stick policy to fend off Israel’s sovereignty plans. If Israel backs off from its plans, EU officials have argued, the EU and Israel could turn over a new leaf in their relationship.

Israel’s agreement with the United Arab Emirates stipulates that Israel would suspend its plans to apply sovereignty over Judea and Samaria.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu insisted that the agreement with the UAE did not mark the end of his sovereignty plan, but is merely a temporary delay. US President Donald Trump, however, later asserted that Israel agreed not to apply sovereignty over Judea and Samaria as part of the agreement.

Borrell was highly vocal in his criticism of Israel’s plans to apply sovereignty over Judea and Samaria, having warned that “annexation would inevitably have significant consequences for the close relationship we currently enjoy with Israel.”

The EU welcomed the agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates while restating its support for a two-state solution between Israel and the PA.

(Arutz Sheva’s North American desk is keeping you updated until the start of Shabbat in New York. The time posted automatically on all Arutz Sheva articles, however, is Israeli time.)

Source: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/286161

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Analysis: Iran’s Centrifuges Are in the Crosshairs Again

Yossi Melman — Mon, 06 Jul 2020 18:57:25 +0000

An examination of the more distant and recent past are necessary to understand the series of explosions that have rocked Iran in recent days.

An Iranian flag flutters at Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, November 2019.Credit: ATTA KENARE / AFP

Understanding the series of explosions and fires that have rocked Iran over the past week, particularly the explosion at the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, requires us to travel back in time 18 years.

In August 2002, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, an umbrella group of exiles and opponents of the Islamic regime, revealed that Iran was building an underground uranium enrichment facility near Natanz. At the same time, it was revealed that the government had set up a workshop in one of Tehran’s industrial zones that was masquerading as an electronic watch factory run by the Kalaye Electric Company, but was actually constructing centrifuges.

Unlike Israel, Iran is a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and as a member state is obligated to report to the International Atomic Energy Agency on any facility, equipment or nuclear material on its territory, even if it is for peaceful means. The Iranians’ usual practice has been to deny the existence of banned facilities, only admitting to their existence when forced to. And even when acknowledging them, the Islamic republic made every effort to buy time, until finally being forced to let international nuclear inspectors into the Tehran workshop, the Natanz facility and other sites linked to its nuclear program.

Since then, IAEA inspectors have paid visits to the facilities at varying intervals.

According to foreign reports, Israeli intelligence – the Mossad and the Israeli army’s Unit 8200, with the help of other espionage agencies – exposed the illegal activity at Natanz and “laundered” the information via Iranian opposition groups. It later became clear to the CIA and Britain’s MI6, from information supplied by the late Libyan dictator Muammar Gadhafi, that Iranian nuclear scientists had built centrifuges to enrich uranium based on knowledge and technology secretly acquired from Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb.

The discovery of the Natanz facility was a wake-up call for intelligence communities in Israel, the United States, and elsewhere, indicating Iran’s determination to pursue its nuclear program through every possible channel – uranium enrichment, laser enrichment, and plutonium production. According to foreign reports, against this backdrop, operational-intelligence cooperation grew between Israel and the United States during President George W. Bush’s time in office.

Among other efforts, they would carry out various programs to step up intelligence gathering (via agents, wiretapping and computer hacking), and through increased infiltration of Iran’s procurement networks around the world – in an effort to have the Iranians provided with faulty information and technology – to sabotaging equipment on its way to Iran and damaging the nuclear facilities themselves.

Journalist James Risen wrote about one of these programs in his 2006 book “State of War: The Secret History of the CIA and the Bush Administration.” According to the book, the Mossad and the CIA plotted to sabotage the electric grid near Iran’s nuclear sites through the use of electromagnetic pulses. Experts working for the CIA went to a testing site in Nevada to try out their technology on a model they had set up there. The book stated that the Mossad volunteered to smuggle the necessary equipment into Iran via agents in the country.

A view of a damaged building after a fire broke out at Iran’s Natanz Nuclear Facility, in Isfahan, Iran, July 2, 2020.Credit: /AP

But when it tested out the technology and assessed its viability, the CIA decided to scrap the program on the grounds that it was not feasible and was too dangerous. Carrying out the plan would have required smuggling trucks into Iran and loading them with heavy equipment. Subsequently, according to reports, Mossad directors (Meir Dagan and Tamir Pardo), Israeli army intelligence chiefs (Aharon Ze’evi-Farkash, Amos Yadlin, and Aviv Kochavi), along with commanders of Unit 8200, got together with the Americans and other espionage agencies to find other creative ways to damage, disrupt and delay Iran’s plans.

It was clear to those involved in the work that it was necessary to assemble a wide-ranging set of tools that would make systematic, coordinated, international operations possible and force Iran to suspend its nuclear program at the very least. No one ever imagined that Iran would give up its plans for the nuclear option, if not the construction of an actual atomic bomb.

According to foreign reports, this toolbox included inserting a computer virus into electricity boxes manufactured by the German company Siemens, which were connected to the computers running the Natanz centrifuges. The virus was dubbed Stuxnet and the joint operation by the Mossad, the CIA, Unit 8200, and its U.S. counterpart at the National Security Agency, was called Operation Olympic Games (as revealed in the United States in 2011).

More advanced centrifuges

In 2009, it was discovered that the Iranians had built another uranium enrichment site at Fordo, near the city of Qom, which was built even deeper in the ground than the Natanz facility and would be difficult to destroy. (The Israel Air Force does not have bunker-busting bombs as the United States does).

It also turned out that Iranian experts had managed to develop centrifuges that were more advanced than those acquired from Pakistan. The Iranian ones were capable of enriching larger quantities of uranium in less time.

As the other operations were proceeding, nuclear scientists who were part of Iran’s nuclear “weaponization” team, responsible for the most critical stage of nuclear weapons production, began to disappear one after another. The U.S. secretary of state at the time, Hillary Clinton, declared that her country was not involved in the deaths or assassinations. From her statement and prior precedents and analyses, the international media attributed the assassinations to the Mossad.

According to foreign reports, these operations were a mix of Mossad, Iranian agents, and others assigned to the task. It was clear that the assassinated scientists would be replaced by others, but the targeted killings also had a psychological aspect – consisting of a threat that it was hoped would dissuade Iranian scientists working at universities from joining the secret military project.

This July 3, 2020, satellite image from Planet Labs Inc. shows a damaged building after a fire and explosion at Iran’s Natanz nuclear site.Credit: /AP

In addition to the killings and sabotage, the United States and other Western powers (and later, following a UN Security Council resolution, Russia and China) increased diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran. Here, too, the Mossad played an important role, being involved in gathering information that would be the basis for targeting Iranian companies and the financial sectors upon which sanctions could be imposed.

Iran’s economy was hit hard and in 2013 the Iranians agreed to enter negotiations, which in July 2015 produced the international nuclear agreement with the six major powers, which was signed in Vienna (the JCPOA).

Most senior Israeli defense and intelligence officials expressed the view that, despite its shortcomings, the deal was the least bad of all available options. But Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu thought otherwise and began to do all he could to scuttle the agreement. Threats made by Netanyahu and then-Defense Minister Ehud Barak, backed by visible air force exercises, created the impression that a military strike was imminent and unavoidable. It was one of the most successful deception operations in history.

Netanyahu also appeared before members of Congress in March 2015 to speak out against the agreement, a deal then-President Barack Obama supported. It’s possible that without Netanyahu’s involvement, a better agreement could have been achieved.

Main task

In 2016, Yossi Cohen was appointed as director of the Mossad. As he has told associates, his main task was to obtain information proving that Iran was violating the nuclear deal. One of his major accomplishments was the break-in at Iran’s nuclear archive in January 2018 and the theft of its contents, which were brought back to Israel. (On Sunday, Netanyahu extended Cohen’s term as director by another six months, until June 2021.) But even this impressive intelligence coup didn’t yield diplomatic results. The world seemingly wasn’t impressed by the findings and stuck to its position that the nuclear agreement should be respected.

On the other hand, President Donald Trump, with backing and persuasion from Netanyahu, announced in 2018 that the United States would be unilaterally withdrawing from the agreement. Following that, Iran began violating the deal – including, most significantly, with its renewed efforts to develop advanced centrifuges.

This is the backdrop for recent events in Iran: four explosions and fires, which occurred at an X-ray lab in Tehran; a missile base at Parchin (where the weaponization program was based); a power plant in Ahvaz, an area that is home to Iran’s Arab minority; and the enrichment plant at Natanz.

Speaking Sunday, Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi reiterated Israel’s traditional responses on the subject. Ashkenazi said Israel would not permit Iran to develop nuclear weapons, while Gantz explained that not every unusual “event” is linked to Israel. The defense minister noted that Iran has had a history of major accidents due to faulty maintenance and outdated equipment, as a result of the sanctions against the country.

Gantz and Ashkenazi both know what the late head of the Mossad, Meir Dagan, used to frequently say: that Iran is a mosaic of ethnic groups (including Arabs, Kurds, Baluchis, and Azeris) who are not pleased with the regime and have formed underground groups. According to foreign reports, some of these groups are gaining assistance from the CIA and the Mossad.

It’s possible that a combination of the comments by the two Israeli ministers along with Dagan’s view might provide an explanation as to what is currently happening in Iran. Israel is doing absolutely everything it can to prevent Iran from moving ahead with its nuclear program, while Iran is prone to accidents and is exposed to terrorist attacks.

Whether or not Israel is responsible for these events, the fact the Iranians are accusing Israel only enhances the prestige of Israeli intelligence, while simultaneously damaging Iran’s own morale and its self-image. The major question is, if Iran retaliates, whom would it retaliate against, and how? A cyberattack on Israeli installations, as occurred earlier this year, is just one option.

Source: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-iran-s-centrifuges-are-in-the-crosshairs-again-1.8974472

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The coming giant internal Israeli war over a nuclear Iran – A 2010 rematch

Yonah Jeremy Bob — Mon, 13 Apr 2020 07:45:44 +0000

Sources break down Israeli defense officials’ disagreements.

A member of Iranian Border Guards wears a protective face mask, following an outbreak of the new coronavirus, inside the Shalamcha Border Crossing, after Iraq shut a border crossing to travelers between Iraq and Iran, Iraq March 8, 2020 – (photo credit: REUTERS/ESSAM AL-SUDANI)

A massive internal storm may be coming that the coronavirus may delay, but cannot stop.

If it does, it will pit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Mossad Director Yossi Cohen and others against Blue and White leaders Benny Gantz and Gabi Ashkenazi, as well as IDF Chief of Staff Lt.- Gen. Aviv Kochavi, over how to deal with Iran.

According to numerous interviews by The Jerusalem Post with current and former Mossad, CIA and other national security officials in the US and Israel, a point may get closer where the Islamic Republic of Iran will escalate its levels of uranium enrichment dangerously close to levels where it could weaponize within a short period.

This will draw Netanyahu, Cohen and their camp closer to a desire to preemptively strike Iran, while Gantz, Ashkenazi, Kochavi and their camp are more likely to define the “point of no return” – after which Tehran cannot be stopped from going nuclear – as a good bit later.

This debate would echo the all-out fight between Netanyahu and Gantz and Ashkenazi in 2010 and afterwards.

During that period, the Blue and White MKs followed each other as IDF chiefs and, especially Ashkenazi, helped block an Israeli preemptive strike, along with then-Mossad chiefs Meir Dagan and Tamir Pardo.

Pardo has since confirmed that he even discussed the issue with then-attorney-general Yehuda Weinstein. He explained that he believed a Netanyahu order to move pieces in place for a near-immediate attack on Iran without full security cabinet approval was illegal and said Weinstein confirmed his position.

There are multiple narratives, with one involving confusing moves by Netanyahu and then-defense minister Ehud Barak to merely scare the world into thinking they would attack.

But the majority public narrative is that the defense establishment’s opposition blocked Netanyahu and Barak from launching an attack.

Most expert estimates already have Tehran’s time to break out for a nuclear bomb – if it chooses to do so, which all agree it has not yet – down from 12 months to between three and a half to six months.

In early March, the usually relatively Iran-friendly International Atomic Energy Agency reported that the ayatollahs already had enough low-level (between 3.67-5%) enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon – should Iran make the decision to enrich to higher levels.

Multiple intelligence sources have indicated to the Post a belief that the Islamic Republic may jump to 20% enrichment, a step it took before the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

Some sources even speculated that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may greenlight a small amount of enrichment at the 60% level (uranium becomes weaponized at the 90% level) – an idea the country already played with months ago, but has not yet carried out.

But sources have indicated that top intelligence officials in favor of an earlier military option to stop Iran from getting a nuclear bomb are not looking at just one specific factor.

Rather, they are looking at the full picture of Tehran’s actions, which will indicate whether it has made the decision to go to the threshold.

According to intelligence officials who view the point of no return as an earlier point in time, they look at nuclear enrichment as a more decisive factor for interpreting Iran’s intentions than the ability to deliver a nuclear weapon.

Put differently, they believe Israel would need to act militarily once Iran has enough nuclear material for a weapon, and that it could not wait for the point at which it is confirmed that Iran can properly fire the weapon.

The rationale of these intelligence officials is that enriching uranium and working on weapons delivery issues, though separate skills to master, do not need to happen in a chronological fashion.

Instead, intelligence officials have noted to the Post that the Islamic Republic could be working through problems with delivering a nuclear warhead on its Shahab 3 missile or other missiles in parallel to its uranium enrichment.

Further, these officials said once Iran gets to within a certain proximity to enough weaponized material for a nuclear bomb, the uncertainties – which might drag out the process by some period of weeks or might be solved immediately – are too fluid.

THERE IS a lesson from the North Korea case.

With North Korea, at some point, the world was surprised by how slow it moved forward with developing nuclear weapons. However, later it shocked the world by being months ahead of what was expected. Exporting this lesson to Iran, it means the point of no return cannot wait for the clock to run out entirely.

Those intelligence officials in this camp are also keeping a careful eye on relations between the IAEA and the ayatollahs. Relations have gotten shakier since the March report, which used harsher language than usual against the regime.

In contrast, in January, Kochavi publicly laid out that he did not view Iran as a real nuclear threat until deep into 2021.

The Post has asked the IDF if Kochavi might move his calendar up by nine months since he also predicted in January that Tehran would not have enough low-enriched uranium for a bomb before December. Yet, the regime crossed that threshold already in March.

The IDF did not respond and has not issued a revised timeline.

This suggests that the IDF will not change its calendar as long as Iran is not enriching uranium to higher levels.

However, even more significantly, Kochavi explicitly treated the issues of uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons delivery as separate and chronological. He said weapons delivery pushed the nuclear threat off until deep into 2021.

It appears that this was the position of Ashkenazi and Gantz back in the 2010 era when they held Kochavi’s job.

At that point – and leading up to the 2015 nuclear deal – Iran went far beyond where it is today with nuclear enrichment, yet they were still dead set against Netanyahu and Barak’s discussion/order to attack.

Before the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran had enough low-enriched uranium for around 10 nuclear bombs and had substantial amounts of uranium enriched to the 20% level – which it has not done yet this time.

So even if Khamenei brings Iran far beyond its current uranium stock of low-enriched uranium for one weapon, and if he orders uranium enrichment at the 20% level, a rematch could mean Netanyahu’s Blue and White partners trying to hold him back from an attack.

Kochavi in the present, and Gantz, Ashkenazi, Dagan, and Pardo from the past and present, in part represent an IDF mentality of needing to juggle short-term threats, like Hezbollah and Hamas, with long-term threats. They also represent an intelligence perspective beyond the IDF that even a surgical strike solely on Iran’s nuclear facilities could likely lead to a broader war with Iran and its proxies.

In contrast, Netanyahu and Cohen now, and Barak in the past, represented a mentality that the risks of Iran developing a nuclear weapon are so great (that it might use a weapon or that it could use the weapon to act more aggressively in the region) that it trumps other risks and warrants acting sooner.

This future internal war, a rematch of the 2010 era, could decide the fate of the country.

Source: https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/The-coming-giant-internal-Israeli-war-over-a-nuclear-Iran-A-2010-rematch-624452

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The post The coming giant internal Israeli war over a nuclear Iran – A 2010 rematch first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.