A South Korean delegation left for Iran on Thursday to negotiate the early release of an oil tanker and its crew seized in strategic Gulf waters this week.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps troops on Monday stormed the South Korean-flagged MT Hankuk Chemi as it navigated the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and forced the vessel to a nearby Iranian port.

Iranian officials said the vessel was seized for violating maritime environmental laws as it was carrying 7,200 tons of “oil chemical products.”

The Guards said they arrested crew were from South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Myanmar.

“I plan to meet my counterpart at the Iranian Foreign Ministry and will meet others through various routes if it will help efforts to resolve the issue of the ship’s seizure,” Koh Kyung-sok, the chief delegate, and the director-general of the South Korean Foreign Ministry’s Middle Eastern affairs department, was quoted as saying before boarding the plane to Tehran.

The strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman

Tensions spiral in the Gulf

Iran’s seizure of the tanker came after Tehran had urged Seoul to release the $7 billion (€5.7 billion) of Iranian assets frozen in South Korea under US sanctions.

The money was frozen in South Korean banks after President Donald Trump withdrew the US from a multilateral agreement which limited Tehran’s nuclear enrichment activities in exchange for a relaxation of international economic and financial sanctions.

President Trump then slapped unilateral trade and financial sanctions on Iran.

The US had initially provided South Korea with a waiver to avoid implementing the new sanctions, but those lapsed, essentially forcing Seoul to freeze the Iranian assets.

Iran’s move to seize the vessel also coincides with Tehran’s announcement that it will increase the level of uranium enrichment at its Fordo nuclear facility to 20%, well above that agreed to with several countries, including the US, until Trump’s withdrawal from the deal in 2018. Uranium enriched to 90% is required to fuel nuclear weapons. Iran claims its nuclear program is strictly for peaceful purposes.

Meanwhile, January 2 marked the one-year anniversary of the assassination of General Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force, in a US drone attack.

Tension between the Islamic Republic and the United States has been running high in recent weeks, as Tehran marked the assassination, and Washington deployed military assets to the region, including the return of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and repeated sorties of pairs of strategic B-52 bombers over the Persian Gulf.

Concerns over the potential for a military confrontation between the US and Iran have been voiced from several quarters over the past few weeks. President Trump threatened Iran over a rocket attack by Tehran-backed Iraqi militants near the US Embassy in Baghdad on Christmas Eve.

Iran has responded to the US military moves, with its Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif accusing Trump of manufacturing a pretext to attack Iran in the waning hours of his administration.

The crisis also follows the assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on November 27, an attack still shrouded in mystery.

Washington has deployed more military assets to the Persian Gulf, including the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Nimitz

A lot of uncertainty

All this adds up to a lot of moving parts and a lot of uncertainty, says Cheong Wook-sik of the South Korean NGO PeaceNetwork. Like most observers, Cheong places little credence on the validity of Iran’s “pollution” justification for seizing the oil tanker.

He suggests the move is more likely designed to generate leverage over the US in terms of a potential return to the Iranian nuclear agreement (formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA), initially negotiated when incoming US President Joe Biden was vice-president, and a supporter of the deal concluded under President Barack Obama.

“For South Korea to release the $7 billion in Iranian funds held in South Korean banks it would require some type of waiver from implementing the US sanctions, or for the US to return to the JCPOA,” Cheong told DW, adding: “The Iranian government also hopes the South Korean government will ask the new incoming Biden administration to lift the economic sanctions against Iran.”

Although there is significant concern frequently voiced in the public sphere over the potential for Trump to initiate a crisis in his last days in office, the incoming Biden administration provides hope for a significant drawdown of tension, said Cheong.

Changes in US policy will be required, he pointed out.

“In order to revive the Iranian nuclear deal, the United States, especially the new administration, should lift economic sanctions and return to the Iranian nuclear deal. At the same time, Iran should stop the enrichment of uranium fuel to 20% at the Fordo facilities,” he said. “These two things should be done simultaneously. If so, the Iranian frozen assets issue can be resolved, and the seized South Korean ship returned.”

A mediating role?

South Korea may represent a perfect intermediary between the US and Iran. South Korea had imported a significant portion of its oil from Iran prior to United Nations Security Council sanctions imposed before negotiating the JCPOA deal. Also, historically, Seoul has had good diplomatic relations with Tehran for decades. Cheong views the ship seizure very much through the lens of geopolitical strategy.

“The Iranian government wants to send a message to the United States, that if the United States does not lift economic sanctions, the Iranian government can exact revenge on US allies such as South Korea. At the same time, South Korea can play some kind of mediating role between Iran and the United States on these issues.”

Still, the risk of a military flare-up is there. The seizure, the enrichment, and the anniversary, says Cheong, “can trigger reactions from Israel and the United States.”

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has argued for a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, suggesting the increase in enrichment provides evidence Iran is seeking nukes and not nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes.

Although South Korea said it is committed to resolving the ship seizure issue diplomatically, that resolution will likely require the involvement of Washington and the next US administration.

“I hope that the Biden team sends some message — officially or unofficially — after its inauguration on January 20 … to seek dialogue with the Iranian government for resolving the current issues peacefully, such a message would weaken the hardliners in Iran, Israel, and the United States and strengthen the doves,” said the PeaceNetwork director.

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/south-korea-iran-oil-tanker-sanctions/a-56156528

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USS Georgia transits Strait of Hormuz

DUBAI:  Some Middle East officials worry a “perfect storm” may be brewing in the Middle East as the final hours of Donald Trump’s time in office tick down. The United States and Israel have deployed new military assets in the Persian Gulf region, as Iran sends more ballistic missiles and drones to its proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, increasing concerns of an imminent confrontation.

“It is like conditions are being set for the perfect storm,” said one official in the Persian Gulf region, who asked not to be identified.

The U.S. Navy announced Dec. 21 that the Ohio-class guided-missile submarine USS Georgia, accompanied by two other warships, entered the Arabian Gulf waters, joining the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group that was deployed to the region late last month.

“SSGNs are one of the most versatile platforms in the fleet, equipped with superior communications capabilities and the ability to carry up to 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles. The platform can also be configured to host up to 66 Special Operations Forces,” reads a statement by U.S. 5th Fleet, whose command is based in Bahrain

The U.S. Air Force flew two B-52 bombers to the Middle East on Dec. 30 in the second such mission this month and the third since November. U.S. officials described the B-52 long-range flights to the Middle East as a message of deterrence to Iran.

Several regional analysts and observers have warned the military buildup could be a prelude to a plan by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to provoke Iran into a military confrontation that would free them to strike its nuclear and ballistic missile facilities and proxy militias in the region.

“These activities are more than just posturing. They are more like repositioning in preparation for something that could either be planned or anticipated,” said Mohammed Baharoon, the director-general of B’huth Center for Public Policy here. “Moving a strike group and a nuclear submarine and flying bombers repeatedly on dry runs are costly exercises and are more than delivering a message to Iran to keep away. Wolves don’t run for nothing.”

Baharoon pointed out that Israel’s decision to show and announce the sailing of a Dolphin submarine through the Suez Canal towards the Red Sea is by itself “a significant message and indication of a possible scenario in place.”

The displays of U.S. military are just days ahead of the first anniversary for the assassination of IRGC senior commander General Qassem Suleimani in a U.S. drone attack last January 3, in Baghdad. Iran has vowed to avenge the killing of its commander who was responsible for all IRGC operations abroad.

Israel is already engaged in a low-intensity conflict with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and their main allied Shiite militia the Lebanese Hezbollah, as Breaking D readers know. Israeli warplanes have launched about 40 air raids on basis and arms depots for the IRGC and Hezbollah in Syria in 2020. The last attack, in the early morning hours of Dec. 30, targeted what Syrian sources describe as a missile depot southwest of Damascus. Just few days earlier Israeli warplanes blasted installations at the “Syrian Military Research” compound in Hama province that, Syrian sources say, were used to build long-range artillery rockets and ballistic missiles based on technologies and parts supplied by Iran.

Israeli officials have repeatedly said they will not tolerate the deployment of Iranian ballistic missiles and other advanced weapons along the northern borders with Syria and Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah asserted in a Dec. 27 interview that his group was on a full state of alert and was in possession of “highly accurate” ballistic missiles that can hit any target in Israel. “The (Iranian) precision missile project has not stopped and will not stop,” Nasrallah told pro-Hezbollah Al-Mayadeen TV.

The region was already on tenterhooks after last month’s killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, regarded by the West as the head of the Iranian nuclear program. Iranian officials have accused Israel of killing the scientist and promised retaliation.

Some U.S. officials noted that the recent military deployments were meant to reassert continued U.S. commitment to its Middle Eastern allies even as President Trump’s administration withdrew thousands of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan.

The deployment of the guided-missile submarine and other vessels signals the U.S. Navy’s “commitment to regional partners and maritime security,” the Navy said, displaying its readiness “to defend against any threat at any time.”

Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Brig. Gen. Hidai Zilberman said in an interview with a Saudi news-site on Christmas Day that Israeli intelligence has picked up signals that Iran might use its proxies in Iraq or Yemen to attack Israel with drones or ballistic missiles.

Iran and its allies have grown more alarmed by the heightened military activities. This was also reflected in the recent interview by Nasrallah, when he suggested that the Trump administration’s remaining time in office must be managed carefully, calling the outgoing US president “crazy.”

Suleimani’s successor, Gen. Esmail Ghaani made a surprise visit to Baghdad on December 23 where he met with the commanders of Iran’s proxy militias, a few days after the U.S. Embassy compound in the Iraqi capital was targeted by Katyusha rockets.

The rocket attack on Baghdad’s diplomatic Green Zone on Dec. 20 was regarded as a terrorist act by US and Iraqi government officials.

“The United States strongly condemns the latest attack by Iran-backed militias on the International Zone in Baghdad. While no Embassy personnel were harmed, the attack caused at least one Iraqi civilian casualty and damaged Iraqi civilian property,” Pompeo said in a statement.

Baharoon says he does not think all-out war is planned. “I don’t believe the U.S. or Israel want to start a war with Iran, but they could be trying to provoke a confrontation that would provide the opportunity to target Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missiles installations, creating a mess for President-elect Joe Biden to deal with,” Baharoon said. “But would Iran take the bait, or keep low until Biden is in office?”

Source: click here

The post Persian Gulf Buildup By US, Israel Worries Region: ‘A Perfect Storm?’ first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.