Germany’s economy grew by 1.6 per cent in the second quarter of this year, primarily due to consumer spending as the COVID-19 -induced lockdown was relaxed. The growth has helped Germany’s economy emerge from an economic low that saw it contracting earlier in the year. The crisis had led to a 2 per cent decline in economic performance in 2021 first quarter.

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.6 per cent between April and June compared with the previous quarter, according to figures released by the Federal Statistical Office recently.

With lockdown restrictions reduced, final consumption expenditure in the second quarter of 2021 was markedly up compared with the beginning of the year.

Two key factors helped fuel the rebound. Household final consumption expenditure increased by 3.2 per cent on the first quarter, while one measure of government expenditure rose by 1.8 per cent.

The effects of the pandemic still appear marked, though. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, GDP was 3.3 per cent lower, according to German newspapers.

Government spending to cushion the economic blow of the crisis left an €80.9 billion ($95 billion) hole in public finances for the first half of 2021.

Source: https://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/textile-news/german-economy-shows-signs-of-recovery-276031-newsdetails.htm

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As Angela Merkel enters the home stretch of her nearly 15-year tenure, more people express confidence in the German chancellor than in any other world leader asked about in a recent Pew Research Center survey of 14 countries. And in six of those countries, the share of adults who have confidence in Merkel is the highest on record.

This year marks the last full calendar year that Merkel will serve as the head of Germany’s federal government. Merkel announced in October 2018 that she would not seek reelection in elections planned for next year. She is closing out her tenure amid the coronavirus pandemic and widespread economic pessimism in Europe and elsewhere.

Overall, a median of 75% across the surveyed countries say they have confidence in Merkel to do the right thing regarding world affairs. That is higher than the share who say the same about French President Emmanuel Macron (63%), British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (50%), Russian President Vladimir Putin (23%), Chinese President Xi Jinping (19%) and U.S. President Donald Trump (17%). Majorities of adults express confidence in Merkel in every country surveyed except Italy, where people are divided (50% confident, 49% not confident).

The six countries where confidence in Merkel is now at its highest level on record are the United Kingdom (where 76% have confidence in her), Canada (74%), Spain and Australia (both 72%), Japan (67%) and the United States (61%). In France and Italy, confidence in Merkel was higher prior to the eurozone crisis than it is now. And in Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea and Sweden, more people had confidence in Merkel in the years following the height of the refugee crisis than currently.

Since Merkel took office in 2005, confidence in the German chancellor has been relatively stable in much of Europe – Germany in particular – as she has helped coordinate national and international responses to the eurozone debt crisis, the refugee crisis and now the COVID-19 pandemic. A majority of Germans have expressed confidence in Merkel throughout her tenure, with around eight-in-ten (81%) doing so now. The share of Germans who express no confidence in Merkel has declined 12 percentage points in two years, from a high of 31% in 2018 to the current figure of 19%.

Notably, confidence in Merkel remains high internationally even though views of Germany have declined in several countries since 2007. In Italy, for example, the share of adults with a favorable view of Germany declined from 75% in 2007 to 53% in 2019. Still, Germany continues to be viewed much more favorably than not overall. Across 15 European countries surveyed by Pew Research Center in 2019, including Russia and Ukraine, a median of 74% had a positive view of Germany.

Views of Merkel differ by education level and, in some countries, by gender

In 12 of the 14 countries surveyed this year, those with a postsecondary education or higher are more likely to have confidence in Merkel than those with less education. In Italy, for example, 64% of those with more education have confidence in Merkel, compared with 47% of those with less education, a difference of 17 percentage points.

Views of Merkel also differ substantially by education in the UK, Australia, the U.S., South Korea, Denmark and Japan. And in Merkel’s own country, people with at least a postsecondary education are more confident in their chancellor than those with less education (88% vs. 78%, respectively) – though confidence is high among both groups.

In most countries, views of Merkel don’t differ by gender. But in Canada, Spain and South Korea, men are more likely than women to have confidence in her. The reverse is true in Germany, where 86% of women express confidence, compared with 75% of men.

In the U.S., confidence in Merkel differs widely by party

The share of Americans who express confidence in Merkel has increased from 38% in 2006 to 61% in this year’s survey. (In 2006, 38% did not offer an opinion, a share that fell to 9% this year.)

In recent years, impressions of Germany’s leader have differed by Americans’ partisan identification. Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party are now much more likely than Republicans and Republican leaners to say they have confidence in Merkel (76% vs. 50%). Earlier in Merkel’s tenure, Democrats and Republicans barely differed in their views.

Democrats have become much more likely to express confidence in Merkel over time. In 2006, 35% of Democrats expressed confidence in Germany’s leader, a share that has risen to about three-quarters (76%) today. By comparison, Republicans’ confidence in Merkel has changed little.

In Germany, views of country’s handling of COVID-19 are linked to confidence in Merkel

Among Germans, views of their country’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak are tied to confidence in Merkel. Those who say their country has done a good job dealing with the virus are much more likely than those who say it has done a bad job to have confidence in Merkel (87% vs. 41%, respectively).

Germany has fared relatively well during the coronavirus outbreak. The country has fewer COVID-19 deaths per capita than many other European countries surveyed. And a majority of Germans (61%) say their everyday lives have not changed too much or at all as a result of the outbreak.

The German economy has also generally held up, though data suggests a slow recovery. About half (51%) of Germans say the current economic situation is good, and they are among the most optimistic in Europe, with 47% saying that the economic situation will improve in the next year.

Germans are also very positive when rating their own country’s job dealing with the coronavirus outbreak: Nearly nine-in-ten (88%) say the country has done well. About two-thirds say both the European Union and World Health Organization have done a good job with the outbreak. However, views are not so positive toward the other two countries asked about in the survey: A majority say China has done a bad job, and 88% say the same of how the U.S. has handled the outbreak.

While Germans broadly have confidence in Merkel, there are political differences in views of the chancellor. Those with favorable views of two of the ruling coalition parties – Merkel’s own Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) – are more likely to say they have confidence in Merkel to do the right thing regarding world affairs than those who do not have favorable views of these parties.

However, supporters of Germany’s right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party are much less likely to be positive on Merkel than those who who do not support AfD. About half (51%) of AfD supporters have confidence in Merkel, compared with 86% of those who do not support the party.

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/02/confidence-in-merkel-is-at-all-time-high-in-several-countries-during-her-last-full-year-in-office/

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The German economy, Europe’s largest, contracted by a record 9.7% in the second quarter as consumer spending, company investments and exports saw a steep decline due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Although the contraction was the worst on record, it was still less than what economists initially anticipated, after the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) revised the quarter-on-quarter contraction in gross domestic product down from the 10.1% it initially reported at the end of July.

The economic slump was much stronger than during the 2007-08 financial crisis which saw a 4.7% decline in the first quarter of 2009, and it represented the sharpest decline since Germany began to record quarterly GDP calculations in 1970, the office said.

Read more:  Zombie firms: Will a wave of insolvencies hit Germany?

Consumer spending shrank by 10.9% in the quarter, capital investments by 19.6% and exports by 20.3%, according to official data. Construction activity, normally a consistent growth driver for the German economy, fell by 4.2%.

Meanwhile, stimulus measures designed to support consumers and businesses through the worst of the crisis resulted in the state spending €51.6 billion ($61 billion) more than it took in during the first half of 2020, Destatis said.

An ‘optimistic’ outlook

Despite the economic slump, however, German business morale improved more than expected in August. According to a survey published by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research, firms assessed their current business situations with far more optimism than in the previous month.

The institute said its business climate index, an indicator of economic activity in Germany, rose to 92.6 from a downwardly revised 90.4 in July. This marked the fourth monthly increase in a row, and was higher than economists’ initial expectations of 92.2.

“The German economy is on the road to recovery,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said in a statement.

Read more: Coronavirus: Germany to take on more debt in 2021 to tackle pandemic

“In the service sector, the business climate index rose sharply,” the statement read. “The service providers were significantly more satisfied with their current business situation.” The outlook for the coming six months also improved, according to the study.

The German government has forecast a 6.3% economic decline for the entire year. At the start of the pandemic in March, experts pushed through a multibillion-euro coronavirus aid package, followed by another €130-billion stimulus in June.

The German decline was one of the less drastic second-quarter contractions among Europe’s major economies as widespread shutdowns over the pandemic ground economic activity to a halt. France, Italy, Spain and the UK all saw double-digit declines in their economic activity.

lc/rc (dpa, Reuters)

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/german-economy-plunges-by-record-97/a-54690807

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A pedestrian wearing a protective face mask amid the the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is reflected on a screen displaying stock prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, on March 17, 2020. Issei Kato/Reuters

The coronavirus is throttling the global economy. In a matter of weeks, the highly contagious disease has pushed the world to the brink of a recession more severe than the 2008 financial crisis. The depth and duration of the downturn will depend on many factors, including the behavior of the virus itself, public health responses, and economic interventions.

Given the extraordinary nature of the pandemic-induced crisis, fiscal and monetary policymakers are working without a playbook. Many, however, are moving forward with stunning bailouts that could collectively top $10 trillion.

How bad will the recession be?

Readings in April suggested the global economy was sailing into a colossal storm. “We anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression,” said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said its indicators produced the strongest warning on record that most major economies had entered a “sharp slowdown.” The World Trade Organization, for its part, forecast that nearly all regions of the world would suffer double-digit declines in trade this year, with North American and Asian exporters hit hardest.

Many governments have effectively frozen social and economic activity in all or parts of their countries to contain the outbreak, shuttering nonessential businesses and ordering residents to stay at home for weeks or months. Billions of people worldwide remain under some type of lockdown. Major industries, especially airlines and other travel-related sectors, are on the brink of bankruptcy. The hope is that economies can power down without causing extreme disruptions, such as widespread business failures or joblessness, and then quickly get back up to speed after the pandemic abates.

Just how quickly governments should unshackle their economies is a matter of debate. Some governments in Asia and Europe that feel they’ve contained the virus have begun to slowly reopen their economies. Similarly, more than a dozen U.S. states are loosening restrictions, and President Trump did not renew federal social-distancing guidelines, which expired on April 30. But new outbreaks have already caused some countries to reimpose restraints.

For now, some economists hope for a strong global rebound in the third quarter, mirroring the recoveries in Asia after the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak of 2003. However, others warn that the pandemic could be far more economically destructive than any past outbreak, and caution that a recovery could take much longer.

In the meantime, many world powers are moving mountains to prop up their economies during the coronavirus downturn.

China

The world’s second-largest economy was stirring back to life in April after suffering a withering blow from the coronavirus, which originated in the city of Wuhan in Hubei Province in late 2019. Several weeks of government-imposed lockdowns on dozens of cities led to steep declines in factory output, retail sales, construction, and other economic activity. Overall, gross domestic product (GDP) dipped almost 7 percent in the first quarter, China’s first economic contraction in more than forty years.

China’s leadership seems less inclined to spearhead a global economic recovery this time than it did following the 2008 financial crisis, when it spent liberally on a stimulus package of more than a half trillion dollars. In the years since, China has roughly doubled its government debt—to about 60 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—and many analysts think it cannot afford to spend so aggressively again.

So far, China’s central bank has taken relatively modest actions, reducing reserve requirements for banks, which will allow them to loan an additional $80 billion to struggling businesses, and indicating that it will cut interest rates in the months ahead. “The normal monetary policy should be kept as long as possible,” wrote central bank chief Yi Gang in late April. “The impact of the pandemic is temporary. China’s economy has strong resilience and great potential, while the fundamentals for high-quality development won’t change.”

Analysts say a major sign to watch will be Beijing’s announcement of its annual growth target, which was postponed from March to May because of the virus. An ambitious goal of around 6 percent could signal that a hefty stimulus package is coming, while a more modest number, closer to 3 percent, would likely mean a continuation of the status quo. There is also a possibility that China may forgo setting a target for this year. To hit its long-held goal of doubling GDP between 2010 and 2020, China would have to grow at least 5.6 percent this year, a pace few economists think is possible.

Germany

The German economy is expected to shrink for the first time since 2009, anywhere from 3 to 10 percent this year. The government itself forecasted a contraction of just over 6 percent, which would be the economy’s worst performance in decades. In March, nearly a half million German companies applied to have their employees join a short-term government work program intended to prevent mass layoffs.

To counter the economic fallout from the coronavirus, Berlin is taking bold actions, abandoning its steadfast commitment to balanced budgets, known as schwarze Null or “black zero.” It is allocating at least 350 billion euros—or about 10 percent of its GDP—to prop up the eurozone’s largest economy. Funds will be spent to bail out struggling businesses, including by making unlimited loans and potentially taking equity stakes.

“We’re doing whatever is necessary,” said Chancellor Angela Merkel, who also led the country through the 2008 crisis. “And we won’t be asking every day what it means for our deficit.” Officials note that Germany is poised to spend aggressively because the government has kept its finances in check in recent years, reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio from more than 80 percent in 2010 to below 60 percent today.

After moving swiftly to control the outbreak within its borders, Germany announced in mid-April that it would slowly reopen its economy. However, Merkel cautioned state leaders—Germany has a federal system—to lift restrictions with great care.

Japan

Economists predict that Japan’s export-driven economy will shrink by around 3 percent this year, which would be its worst performance since 2008. The deep impact from the pandemic comes on the heels of an economic slowdown from a sales tax hike last fall. The virus has also forced the government to postpone the Summer Olympics until next year.

Like some of its peers in the West, the Japanese government has responded with a massive relief package, worth nearly $1 trillion, to help the country through one of its most challenging periods in recent memory. The headline figure is equal to about 20 percent of Japan’s GDP, but analysts say the actual spending impact will be much smaller.

“It is no exaggeration to say that Japan’s economy, and the world economy, is facing the biggest crisis since [World War II] right now. We will protect employment and life at all costs,” said Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Bailout measures include cash payments to citizens and small and midsize businesses, interest-free loans, delayed tax payments, and travel and tourism coupons.

Japan’s central bank announced in late April that it was prepared to buy an unlimited amount of government debt and to double its purchases of corporate debt. However, some critics say the Bank of Japan has limited options after having kept interest rates next to zero for years.

United Kingdom

The pandemic is paralyzing the British economy just as its leaders are negotiating a post-Brexit relationship with the European Union. Prior to the outbreak, there were already concerns about a recession from a so-called hard Brexit. Economists say that the coronavirus pandemic could take a 5 to 10 percent slice out of the economy in 2020.

The government is prepared to make interventions that would be “unprecedented in the history of the British state” to support the economy, finance minister Rishi Sunak said in early March. Among its emergency measures, the Treasury has pledged to pay 80 percent of workers’ salaries for several months to keep companies from resorting to huge layoffs; offered to reimburse self-employed workers for lost wages; deferred tax payments; increased unemployment benefits; established a loan program for small and midsize companies; and provided rescue aid to charities.

The Bank of England has dropped its benchmark interest rate to 0.5 percent, a record low, and loosened capital requirements for banks. In an extraordinary move in early April, the central bank agreed to directly finance the government’s spending during the crisis, freeing it from having to issue debt in the bond market. All told, the rescue efforts could see Britain spend upward of 400 billion pounds, or about 15 percent of GDP.

United States

In a sign of the staggering toll the virus was taking on the U.S. economy, more than thirty million Americans—about one in six U.S. workers—have filed for unemployment since mid-March. Before this crisis, the highest number of filings in a single week was 695,000, in 1982. Economic output plunged by nearly 5 percent in the first three months of 2020, the steepest dive since 2008. Most analysts expect the damage to be far worse in the second quarter, with some suggesting that the unemployment rate could reach as high as 40 percent, significantly higher than its peak of 25 percent during the Great Depression.

While Washington has been criticized for mismanaging the public health response to the pandemic, it’s also been credited with moving decisively to stabilize financial markets. In March, the Federal Reserve indicated that it will do anything within its power to support the economy and provide liquidity. Among the Fed’s historic actions have been: cutting interest rates close to zero, reducing bank reserve requirements to zero, rapidly purchasing nearly $2 trillion in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, buying corporate and municipal debt, and extending emergency credit to nonbanks.

Meanwhile, on the fiscal side, lawmakers passed a $2 trillion stimulus package in March that some analysts have characterized as a bridge loan to get the U.S. economy through the crisis. It includes direct payments of up to $1200 to individuals, hundreds of billions of dollars in loans and grants to businesses, increases to unemployment benefits, and support for hospitals and health-care providers. “In effect, this is a wartime level of investment into our nation,” said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. A month later, Congress signed off on a second bailout package, this one totaling close to a half billion dollars and aimed at providing relief to small businesses and more aid to hospitals.

Multilateral Institutions

European Union. Eurozone finance ministers agreed to a 500-billion-euro package to provide emergency lending and other assistance to member countries, businesses, and workers. Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), has promised there will be “no limits” on the ECB’s defense of the eurozone. The bank is set to buy up to 750 billion euros in additional bonds this year to help its members amid the downturn.

International Monetary Fund. The IMF has set aside $100 billion to lend to member countries that are facing acute financial crises because of the coronavirus, with preference given to emerging economies. By early April, more than ninety countries had requested bailouts.

World Bank Group. President David Malpass said the bank was committing more than $150 billion to counter the pandemic’s effects. More than two dozen virus-related loan requests have been fast-tracked, with many more in the pipeline. Thus far, India has received the largest loan at $1 billion.

Source: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/coronavirus-how-are-countries-responding-economic-crisis

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The number recorded by the Robert Koch Institute stood at 684 in the morning, with large clusters in the west and south, where an initial outbreak centred on a car supplier with a unit in Wuhan, where the infection was first detected.

The total is well over 10 times larger than it was a week ago. There were 66 cases on Feb. 29.

Western Europe’s most populous country has the second largest number of registered cases on the continent after Italy.

So far, no deaths have been reported, though the RND newspaper group reported that a transplant patient with a depressed immune system who had contracted coronavirus was in a critical condition.

With concern growing at the vulnerability of long international supply chains to such an epidemic, Ola Kallenius, chief executive of Mercedes maker Daimler (DAIGn.DE), warned against a return to economic nationalism.

“These events show how fragile global supply chains are,” he told Der Spiegel magazine in remarks published on Saturday. “But a world without global work sharing would be less successful … We should protect (that success) while checking for vulnerabilities where we can bring more security into the supply chain.”

He said Daimler was “gradually ramping up” production again in China after the Chinese New Year stoppage, which had been lengthened because of the coronavirus. But the disease would have an impact on company results.

“We can’t yet say what the impact will be, but it is clear that both production and sales will be affected,” Kallenius added.

Lufthansa (LHAG.DE), Europe’s largest airline group by fleet size, on Friday announced that it was slashing by half the number of flights it will operate in coming weeks as a result of the sudden slackening in demand.

While the government has so far resisted calls for direct economic stimulus to counter the effects of the slowdown, saying only that it has the resources to do so if necessary, more targeted measures are being contemplated.

Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Saturday that the parties in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition were discussing ways to make it temporarily easier for companies to shorten employees’ working hours by letting them off some of the cost of social security benefits.

And with panic buying triggering pictures of empty supermarket shelves on social media, transport minister Andreas Scheuer recommended that a ban on deliveries on Germany’s sacrosanct Sunday be lifted to ease restocking.

At a European health ministers’ summit on Friday, Health Minister Jens Spahn advised against trips to affected regions both abroad and at home, mentioning specifically the German state of North-Rhine Westphalia, where 346 cases have been reported.

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Prospects of an agreement between the EU and the UK that would prevent a chaotic British exit from the bloc appear increasingly dim, as talks between the two sides reach an impasse and European leaders express doubts about striking a deal in time before the October 31 deadline.

As politicians seem unable to reach an acceptable accord, concerns mount in the business world that a disorderly British departure could wreak havoc on firms on both sides of the English Channel, causing job losses and damaging supply chain relationships cultivated over decades.

Read more: Another brick in the wall? The downside of Britain’s jobs boom

“A disorderly Brexit seems more likely than ever,” Holger Bingmann, president of the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade, and Services (BGA), told Germany’s Rheinische Post newspaper on Monday.

He warned that a hard Brexit would have “catastrophic consequences” for Germany’s exporters, pointing out that they would face “immense additional costs” in terms of customs and the bureaucracy of logistics, transportation, data protection, and taxes.

Brexit has cast its shadow on UK-Germany trade for the past couple of years, Bingmann said. The expert noted that in the first half of this year alone, German exporters to the UK incurred losses worth over €3.5 billion ($3.85 billion) on account of Brexit-related negative effects.

The true extent of the damage to bilateral commerce is likely to be “much greater and will only become visible in a few months,” he said, as many firms have just replenished their stocks in the UK to prevent disruptions to the supply chain in the coming months.

Repeated warnings

Businesses and industry groups in both the UK and continental Europe have repeatedly warned about the potential adverse impact of a chaotic Brexit.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said in September that the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is damaging business confidence. According to the lobby group, British firms are diverting billions of pounds from productive investment to preparations for a possible no-deal Brexit.

“Until a deal is agreed, companies will continue to divert billions of pounds from productive investment to no-deal preparations, and international investors will continue to question if the UK is a stable, open place to do business,” CBI Director-General Carolyn Fairbairn said.

CBI said British firms remain concerned about the ongoing political uncertainty in the UK.

German business groups say the Brexit withdrawal agreement, negotiated by UK PM Boris Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May, should not be renegotiated.

“We’ve spent a lot of money on the issue of Brexit. Instead, we should prepare to strengthen Europe,” the managing director of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), an influential German business lobby group, told DW in July. “We see we are walking toward a bilateral world in which the US and China are predominant and we should all unite to build a strong Europe. It’s a waste of money, it’s a waste of time. Instead, we should combine our forces.”

Defiant tone from London

Johnson has so far struck a defiant tone, saying the UK will leave the EU as planned on October 31, irrespective of whether Brussels accepts London’s latest proposals for a deal.

The British premier told French President Emmanuel Macron by phone that the EU shouldn’t be “lured into the mistaken belief that the UK will stay in the EU after October 31,” his office said.

“We will be packing our bags and walking out,” Johnson wrote in an op-ed published by Britain’s Sun newspaper on Sunday. “The only question is whether Brussels cheerily waves us off with a mutually agreeable deal, or whether we will be forced to head off on our own.”

Slowing German economy

Germany’s export-reliant manufacturers, meanwhile, are suffering not just from the UK’s planned departure from the EU. They’re also facing increased headwinds from a slowing global economy and growing business uncertainty over trade and tariff disagreements between the US and China.

Official statistics released on Monday showed that factory orders in Europe’s biggest economy slumped more than forecast in August. Industrial orders fell by 0.6% month-on-month, the Economy Ministry said, after a hefty 2.1% drop in July. Analysts had expected a 0.3% fall in August.

The figures come after the German economy shrank by 0.1% in the second quarter. Experts believe data will show an additional slowdown between July and September.

Leading economic institutes have recently slashed their growth forecasts for the economy for this year and next. But the labor market has so far appeared to be robust, with record-high employment in the country.

Even though calls for increased government spending to boost growth are growing louder, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government has so far stuck to its balanced budget policy.

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/german-businesses-already-incurring-brexit-losses-says-industry-boss/a-50725851

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