Negotiations for the agreement took nearly seven years, and there were intense discussions between the EU Commission and top Chinese officials throughout 2020. In the last days of the year, a decision was made to go ahead with the agreement. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, acting as EU term president, and Chinese President Xi reportedly pressed to close the agreement. But there is an important nuance here: the agreement has not been actually been signed yet, as the negotiations took place via video conferencing. And for the agreement to come into force, ratification by all EU member states as well as the consent of the EU Parliament is necessary.

It is clear that this process will be quite painful and there is a good chance that it could fail. In fact, it is even possible to go further and claim that Germany is betting on this possibility.

So why has Germany followed such a path? There are three reasons: First of all, Germany is heavily dependent on its trade with China. It was its trade with China that saved Germany from the global financial crisis in 2008. Moreover, trade with China is still highly significant to Germany today, with trade volumes of around 250 billion dollars. Secondly, Germany and to a large extent France, have been particularly uncomfortable with the European Union being treated as a second-tier power by the United States under the Trump administration.  Brexit has been the last straw in this context. The message given to the United States with the agreement was that Europe is far more important than the United States thought and that the EU cannot be ignored. Finally, with the CAI agreement, China has also been warned about the importance of Europe within the scope of great power competition.

At this point, it is necessary to draw attention to the race between France and Germany in order to become the dominant power in the EU after Brexit. With Brexit, France has become the EU’s sole nuclear power and its most powerful one in terms of conventional forces as well. France’s historical approach to European autonomy is a well-known phenomenon. Trump’s unilateral policies and his refusal to take Europe into account enabled France to draw Germany to its side within the scope of European autonomy. However, with the election of Biden, Germany is expected to return to its traditional approach in the context of transatlantic relations. This has been made clear in speeches by the German Defense Minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Kramp-Karrenbauer emphasized that an autonomous capacity in military and political matters can strengthen Europe’s hand within the context of existing transatlantic ties with the United States. She also added that Europe could not provide nuclear deterrence without the US nuclear umbrella. The main reason for this approach is to prevent France from taking the helm of the European Union in the absence of the balance provided by the United Kingdom. The struggle of these two powers to gain the leadership of Europe lies at the root of many problems in European history. It was the presence of the United States in the continent after the Second World War that kept these two powers from any conflict. The US presence has been also the most essential factor in Europe’s welfare today. For this reason, the US presence in the continent and the continuation of the transatlantic relationship have been of vital importance for Germany.

Against France’s clear military superiority, Germany has undoubted economic superiority. The economic locomotive of the European Union, so to speak, is Germany. Germany needs China and Asian economies to maintain this superiority. In this context, it does not hesitate to oppose any attempt that will jeopardize its commercial relations with China. In this respect, the attempts of the United States to cut off trade relations with China altogether cannot find any support from Germany. However, Germany also looks for ways to balance the assertive and aggressive attitude of Xi Jinping’s China. For this reason, it wants to use its relationship with the United States as leverage against China as well.

When all these elements come together, it is an indisputable fact that Germany is in a very delicate position. In fact, the CAI agreement itself is a consequence created by such a balance. Germany forced the conclusion of such an agreement for the sake of not spoiling its relations with China, and it has restored confidence in China. On the other hand, the message was given to the United States, especially to the incoming Biden administration, that Europe is an important power that cannot be ignored. Nobody will be able to blame Germany if the agreement is not implemented due to an EU member state refusing to ratify it. This means that Europe, and Germany, hold some serious leverage against the United States as well as China.

Looking ahead, both great powers will have to play the game by taking Europe into account. In fact, the European Union, and especially Germany, could gain a crucial position in playing a balancing role that will keep the great power rivalry between the US and China from getting out of hand. Hopefully, the result will be a more balanced and stable global order. Such will be one of the most important tasks of the new administrations in the United States and Germany in the coming period.

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com or any institutions with which the authors are associated.

Source: https://www.eurasiareview.com/12012021-eu-china-investment-agreement-casts-europe-as-a-great-power-oped/

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The idea of World Government — a “New World Order” — is nothing new; President George H.W. Bush spoke of it often. The idea of accomplishing that goal by incremental regionalization — a series of “unions” similar to the EU eventually coalescing into a full-fledged “One World Government” — is also nothing new. In fact, in a famous article appearing in the April 1974 issue of Foreign Affairs (the magazine of the globalist-dominated Council on Foreign Relations), Richard Gardner lamented that “the gap has never loomed larger between the objectives and the capacities of the international organizations that were supposed to get mankind on the road to world order” and cursed what he saw as “an outbreak of shortsighted nationalism that seems oblivious to the economic, political and moral implications of interdependence.”

Waxing on about his goal of “world order” and “interdependence” between nations, Gardner expressed “cautious optimism” that he had a plan that would turn the tide, since “never has there been such widespread recognition by the world’s intellectual leadership of the necessity for cooperation and planning on a truly global basis, beyond country, beyond region, especially beyond social system.”

But because of that “shortsighted nationalism,” Gardner realized that the old plan of building a One World Government would only rile those opposed to it and may even spur them to effective action. So, he wrote:

In short, the “house of world order” will have to be built from the bottom up rather than from the top down. It will look like a great “booming, buzzing confusion,” to use William James’ famous description of reality, but an end run around national sovereignty, eroding it piece by piece, will accomplish much more than the old-fashioned frontal assault. Of course, for political as well as administrative reasons, some of these specialized arrangements should be brought into an appropriate relationship with the central institutions of the U.N. system, but the main thing is that the essential functions be performed.

That the EU — which had its foundations laid in the economic treaties made in the wake of WWII and was just beginning to emerge as a full-fledged government when Gardner penned those words — was (and is) the perfect test-bed and example of his plan to achieve globalization through incremental rationalization. And as he wrote, “the U.N. system” and its relationship to regional governments like the EU are essential to that plan.

Now, with the bait having dangled long enough to have sufficiently caused a large part of the world’s governments to nibble, Chancellor Merkel is attempting to set the hook and reel in the prize catch.

At Wednesday’s meeting, Merkel recalled her statement from more than a year ago that “the times when we could fully rely on others are to some extent over.” Her remark appears to be a slam of President Trump who had criticized European countries for paying such a small percentage of NATO’s budget. She went on to criticize President Trump for withdrawing from both the Paris climate treaty and the Iran nuclear deal, saying, “All of that confirms the assessment that the world is being reorganized.”

And since “the world is being reorganized,” Merkel said that the EU should position itself as the leader of that reorganization. And — taking a cue from Gardner — her plan involves what he described as “the U.N. system.”

She called for Europe to “Europeanize” its position in the UN, allowing the EU to “speak with one European voice” — especially on the UN Security Council. Her plan calls for a rotating group of roughly 10 EU member states to work alongside France, since France is one of only five countries with veto power on the counsel.

With Merkel positioning the EU in general — and herself in particular — to take a more dominant role in the UN, the “reorganization” of the world looks to be headed in the direction of unaccountable bureaucratic internationalism. Considering that many UN policies and conventions are binding on all member states, this would be a great time for the United States to reconsider the merits of UN membership.

Tracking the trajectory, it is apparent that “the U.N. system” — already incompatible with national sovereignty — is preparing to move further in that direction. The “U.N. system” is clearly being used in Gardner’s 1974 plan to make “an end run around national sovereignty, eroding it piece by piece” to build “the house of world order.” Of course, this is neither surprising nor a departure for the UN. This was its purpose, as laid out by its founders. Since there is no room in that system for national sovereignty, remaining a member state will mean sacrificing what is left of our independence. If we mean to remain free, the United States should get out of the UN and get the UN out of the United States.

Perhaps Berlin would be a possible new home for the headquarters of the world governing body. After all, Germany has been offered as the “next leader of the free world.” That recommendation came from Jeremy Ghez, affiliate professor of economics and international affairs at business school HEC Paris. Ghez — taking his own jab at President Trump and his policy of putting America first — said, “At a time when the United States is becoming increasingly unilateralist, pundits have volunteered Germany as the next leader of the free world.”

Merkel’s comments at the Munich meeting of the EPP indicate that she is ready and willing for Germany to take on the mantle offered by Ghez and she appears to be posturing herself to be the leader of the free world. Addressing the division in the EU over pressure from Brussels to accept migrant quotas on the one hand and the reluctance of some central and eastern European countries to accept those quotas on the other hand, Merkel said, “If we fail to provide a common answer to questions of illegal migration, the foundations of the European Union will be called into question. Action is really needed here.” She went on to say, “As chancellor I belong to the European Council, in which decisions always have to be taken unanimously. So the question of a majority decision is not relevant there. A solution on this subject will certainly have to be prepared in the European Council.”

Source: https://www.thenewamerican.com/world-news/europe/item/29237-merkel-calls-for-eu-to-lead-the-world-as-it-is-reorganized

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