The EU has often blamed Russia for its recent problems as tensions grew scathingly over Russia–Ukraine issue and the migrant crisis on the Belarus–Poland border. The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson had warned Russia against any form of military adventurism in Ukraine or Poland; however, Kremlin officials were quick to retaliate by asking Europe not to blame Russia for all its problems. The increased tensions between Russia and the West could lead to regional instability as Putin claimed the US-led exercises in the Black Sea to be provocative which since then has heightened the tensions between Moscow and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

In the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting held on 30 November in Riga, the ministers focused on three major issues—Russia’s military deployment around Ukraine, actions taken by the Belarus government against the migrant crisis at the Polish border, and NATO’s role in arms control. NATO forces voiced a united opinion against the Russians and urged Kremlin to be more transparent, de-escalate, and reduce tensions, however, failing to abide would lead to Russia facing economic and political crisis. The US and Britain have warned Russia against any new military aggression against Ukraine as the transatlantic allies look to strengthen NATOs defense, resilience, and capacity. This narrative once again instils faith in the flickering status on the role of NATO in European affairs after Kabul’s fall, the question of European strategic autonomy became prominent. The EU is finding ways to achieve its strategic autonomy to move on from Washington’s purview by investing in the idea of the creation of a true European army, but the recent crisis has showcased the importance and relevance of NATO on the European shores. Ukraine is not a NATO member, therefore Article 5 of the NATO treaty which highlights “Collective Defense” does not apply to Ukraine, but NATO member states consider Ukraine as a highly valued partner. NATO members have provided political and practical support to Ukraine as the former German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas had reiterated on sending an unmistakable message to the Russian government and promised NATO’s support for Ukraine.

Similarly, in the Group of Seven (G7) meeting held on 11 December, in Liverpool, leaders warned Russia of “massive consequences” if Moscow furthers its military aggression against Ukraine. Moscow, however, has demanded a legally binding agreement that would assure NATO will not expand eastwards or place its arsenal near to the Russian territory. The G7 leaders also reflected on the status of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as the new German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock suggested that the gas pipeline would not be active in the events of further escalation by Russia. The EU has already imposed sanctions on the Wagner Group, a Russian private military contractor, who have carried out clandestine operations by financing the mercenaries in Ukraine, Libya, and Syria.

The EU’s position is comprised as it braces itself for a cold winter marred by rising energy prices and demand, a fourth COVID wave, anti-lockdown protests across Europe, the threat of a new migrant crisis at the Belarus–Poland border. Under this weakened position, Kremlin has caught the EU off-guard, with Putin’s instrumentalising Europe’s energy crisis and Lukashenko’s suppression of pro-democracy protests has further exacerbated the EU’s woes. President Lukashenko has threatened the EU by deliberating on shutting down a key pipeline (Yamal–Europe Pipeline) carrying Russian gas to the EU. Both Kremlin and Gazprom have refused to comment on Lukashenko’s ultimatum and Putin has restated his stance asking the EU to negotiate with Minsk directly and avoid using Russia as an intermediatory between Brussels and Minsk. Out of the total gas flows from Russia to the EU, around 20 percent flowed through Belarus via the Yamal–Europe pipeline, and any unilateral action by Lukashenko would worsen the energy crisis across Europe, especially at the onset of the winter season and the fourth COVID wave.

The US has also accused Russia of orchestrating the migrant crisis between Belarus and Poland and Belarus and the Baltic States, but Russia has denied such claims and further cautioned the NATO forces of the perils of crossing the ‘red line’. Since the annexation of Crimea, Ukraine has declared its ambitions to align with the West by joining the EU and NATO which infuriates Russia citing the geographical proximity of NATO in the Russian footsteps. Ukraine’s geographical proximity with both the EU and Russia enables it to extend its cooperation across both sides, especially owing to deep historical and cultural ties with Russia. However, after Crimea’s annexation in 2014, Ukraine sought greater links with the EU and the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement, which entered into force in 2017, has further established a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between the two. This is a major milestone towards EU integration, however, Ukraine has not been declared as a candidature country for EU membership and with multiple regional instability brewing in Ukraine, the prospects of Kyiv joining the bloc remains minuscule. Nonetheless, in case of any conflict, Kyiv hopes that the EU aided by NATO would be ready to stand alongside Ukraine to protect the European territory against the Russian forces.

The new German government has taken office, and at the G7 meeting, Ms. Baerbock quoted Liverpool’s anthem, “You’ll Never Walk Alone” which also happens to be the motto of Germany G7 presidency in 2022. Whether Ukraine will receive adequate support from the European Commission or not, only time will tell. The Eastern Partnership summit that took place on December 15 in Brussels provided an opportunity for the EU to solidify its commitment to Ukraine. The summit provided an opportunity to further European initiative in the region, especially after Europe chose to remain silent over the Nagorno–Karabakh (Azerbaijan and Armenia are both members of the Eastern Partnership) conflict last year. Furthermore, the EU could aim at exploring its nascent Global Gateway infrastructure fund to develop transport and energy corridors in Ukraine. Amidst the debates on European strategic autonomy and European sovereignty, it remains to be seen if the EU can put aside all the major differences within the bloc and take collective action to facilitate a sustainable action plan to help Ukraine.

The views expressed above belong to the author(s).

Source: https://www.eurasiareview.com/20122021-the-russia-ukraine-border-crisis-europes-moment-of-reckoning/

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“It doesn’t matter what you call it. It used to be G-8, now Russia is out,” Trump told reporters on Friday morning at the White House. “Why are we having a meeting without Russia? Would recommend Russia should be a part of it.”

Trump added: “Russia should be in this meeting. Whether you like it or not and it may not be politically correct, but we have a world to run. G-7 threw Russia out. They should let Russia come back in.”

Russia was ousted from the group of leading nations—France, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and the U.S.—following its annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Trump’s comments could fuel criticism about his stance on Russia.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller is currently investigating Russian meddling and potential collusion with Trump campaign associates during the 2016 presidential election. Trump has repeatedly insisted no wrongdoing.

TRUMP HEADS FOR G7 BATTLE WITH CANADA, EURO LEADERS OVER ‘UNFAIR’ TRADE DEALS 

“I’ve done nothing wrong. No collusion,” Trump said Friday. The president has dubbed Mueller’s investigation as a “witch hunt” for months.

Trump, who was headed to Quebec Friday morning for the G-7 summit, also told reporters that he “may leave a little bit early.”

“I may leave a little bit early. It depends on the timing and it depends on what happens here,” Trump said. “All of these countries have been taking advantage of us. We have to straighten it out. We have massive trade deficits with almost every country. We have to straighten it out.”

He added: “It’s what I do. It won’t even be hard.”

He’s heading next to Singapore for a summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

The G-7 summit is expected to be a tense and confrontational meeting with western allies to fight against what Trump has called “unfair” trade practices.

The Trump administration imposted new tariffs— 25 percent on imported steel, 10 percent on aluminum from Canada, Mexico and the European Union — which threaten to drive up prices for American consumers and companies and heighten uncertainty for businesses and investors around the globe.

The U.S. allies had been exempted, but Trump ended that temporary relief this month, seeking to pressure other countries to cut new trade agreements with the U.S.

Leaders of Canada and Western European allies are bracing for battle as well, and for days have been sparring with the U.S. over new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau already signaled they will use the event to oppose the tariffs.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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