Hassan Rouhani (Iran) - Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association

What the death of Iran’s top nuclear scientist could mean for Biden

CNN via Yahoo News — Thu, 03 Dec 2020 07:49:19 +0000

The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s leading nuclear weapons scientist, could set off a tinder box of violence between Iran, Israel and the United States — and put the incoming Biden administration in a tight spot when it comes to resetting relations with Tehran.

In the wake of Fakhrizadeh’s death Friday, Iran’s foreign minister, in a tweet, called the death “cowardice — with serious indications of Israeli role,” while the Iranian Armed Forces chief of staff warned of “severe revenge” against the scientist’s killers.

David Andelman

Credit: c/o David Andelman

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David Andelman – Credit: c/o David Andelman

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had no immediate comment, though it’s likely he, along with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, discussed how to work against Iran in a meeting in Neom, Saudi Arabia, last Sunday, where Mossad head Yossi Cohen was also present. (One of Netanyahu’s confidants, Israeli cabinet minister Tzachi Hanegbi, said Saturday he had “no clue” who was behind the killing.)

According to Amos Yadlin, the executive director of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, it’s likely the three sides were planning what moves to make before a Biden administration takes office and reengages with Iran. (Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister denied the meeting took place). It’s also worth mentioning that Fakhrizadeh’s assassination follows the pattern of other Mossad attacks on senior officials in the Iranian nuclear program.

Saturday, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani blamed Israel for the killing, but promised a response only at “the right time.” Still, the circumstances of the attack — Fakhrizadeh’s car was ambushed in daylight just east of the capital — had to be horrifying and deeply embarrassing to Iran. The nation’s inability to protect itself from a strike in its heartland would seem to make it that much more difficult for moderates in Iran to exercise restraint as the country gears up for presidential election in June 2021.

It remains unclear whether the United States had any prior knowledge of the attack. Early this month, President Donald Trump asked senior advisers to explore the possibilities for an offensive strike against Iran’s main nuclear site, according to The New York Times, after the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a report that said Iran’s stockpile of uranium was 12 times the limit set under the Iran nuclear deal, from which Trump withdrew in 2018. At that meeting, Vice President Mike Pence and Pompeo, along with other aides, warned that such action could lead to a much broader conflict with potentially horrific consequences for the United States.

Following the attack on Fakhrizadeh, Trump retweeted an Israeli journalist, who wrote, “(Fakhrizadeh) was head of Iran’s secret military program and wanted for many years by Mossad. His death is a major psychological and professional blow for Iran.”

The timing of Fakhrizadeh’s death is notable. The United States is entering a potentially dangerous period as the anniversary nears of the death of Qasem Soleimani, a top Iranian general, in a US drone strike in Iraq, January 3. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard officers, along with many Iranians who revered the leader, believed Tehran’s response — a single missile strike on two US military facilities with enough warning to avoid any casualties — was weak.

Now, the assassination of Fakhrizadeh, who, like Soleimani, was a member of the Revolutionary Guard, only throws more fuel on a fire that Netanyahu, for one, seems to have little interest in extinguishing. After all, there was no apparent indication Fakhrizadeh was planning an immediate operation that could have threatened either Israel or America.

The attack — which may have been timed to take place in the final weeks of Trump’s presidency — could spell trouble for the Biden administration. The President-elect is eager to re-enter the Iran nuclear agreement, and a violent Iranian reprisal might scupper the chance at renewed negotiations before Biden even enters office.

Iran will have to weigh competing priorities as it looks ahead. The radical Revolutionary Guard, still smarting over the assassination of Soleimani, will likely call for swift action. But there are also moderates who may be open to cooperating with the incoming Biden administration in a desperate bid to remove the bootheel of sanctions from the nation’s economy as it struggles with the Covid-19 pandemic.

The key unanswered question is whether Iran will be able to restrain its reflexive impulses to retaliate for Fakhrizadeh’s death. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was seen weeping at Soleimani’s funeral, is believed to have close ties to the Revolutionary Guard, which has been instrumental in keeping him in power for more than 30 years. He has already called for revenge and vowed to continue the country’s “scientific” activities in a veiled reference to the country’s nuclear activities.

But Iranian leaders may also heed moderate forces in the interest of encouraging Biden’s hope of returning to the nuclear agreement and relief from sanctions.

Will Iran direct its wrath against the United States or focus on retaliating against Israel in response to Fakhrizadeh’s killing? And then, the broader question: If Iran does retaliate against Israel, will it respond in kind?

At least Saturday’s comments from Rouhani raise the hope that there may actually be some adults in the room. They may well be capable of exercising the kind of restraint that could allow the incoming Biden administration to move toward a restoration of the nuclear agreement and a control over any Iranian inclination to rush full-tilt toward a bomb.

Above all, it is imperative for Trump to exercise restraint rather than escalate what is already a tense situation. Biden has already signaled on numerous occasions that he will abide by the tradition that there is only one president in charge at a time. But if Trump decides to dive headfirst into this dangerous conflict, Biden and his new national security team will have to be prepared to face a world of hurt when they step into the White House this January.

Source: https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/death-irans-top-nuclear-scientist-212121947.html

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China’s Next Military Move: A Base in the Persian Gulf?

Michael Rubin — Tue, 07 Jul 2020 11:50:22 +0000

For the past half-century, the United States has essentially dominated international waters in the Persian Gulf uncontested by any Great Power. As in the South China Sea and in the Bab el-Mandeb, however, Xi may have ambitions to challenge the United States and assert its military influence over yet another strategic chokepoint.

For a generation, China has expanded its economic outreach to the Middle East but has largely remained diplomatically neutral and militarily absent. Beijing, for example, maintains cordial diplomatic relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. It often abstained on contentious UN Security Council resolution. And while Chinese Navy ships do make occasional port calls in the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, but China’s non-combatant evacuation operation from Libya at the beginning of that country’s civil war was far less coordinated and effective than Chinese authorities claimed.

President Xi Jingping’s assertiveness may not be limited to China’ periphery, in Hong Kong, the South China Sea, and Ladakh. China, for example, not only established a military base in Djibouti within miles of the U.S. presence but also has begun to interfere with U.S. pilots in the region.

Now, according to the Iranian press, it appears that China may be seeking a more permanent base in the Persian Gulf. Majid Reza Hariri, speaker of Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce, traced increased Chinese involvement both to Ahmadinejad-era agreements and to Xi’s 2015 visit to Iran, in which the Chinese president both met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani and signed agreements involving both the security and military sectors.

Within the Iranian parliament, rumors now abound that one of these agreements include the lease of facilities on Kish island (Kish is where Bob Levinson disappeared, before being held by Iran until his death years later and where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps onloaded 50 tons of weaponry onto the Karine-A before attempting to smuggle it to the Palestine Liberation Organization). The rumors about the alleged lease started airing in the conservative Iranian news agency Tasnim in February 2020. Alef.ir, a news site affiliated with conservative parliamentarian Ahmad Tavakoli, quoted Hassan Norouzi, a parliamentary hardliner, announcing that he had written to Rouhani to explain why “Negotiations [have been] underway by the government to hand over Kish Island to the Chinese for 25 years.” After complaining about government secrecy in its past dealing with Beijing, Norouzi announced, “If there is any discussion about this, we will definitely stop it, and the Chinese officials should also know that such transfers will not take place.”

While Norouzi’s populist rhetoric may resonate with his working-class constituents in Robat Karim, an impoverished district near Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport, parliamentary outrage is a non-factor in Iranian security and defense calculations. In practice, Iran’s elected parliament has no power to counter the military, defense ministry, or supreme leader. That he would air such threats publicly, however, likely suggests that there is some truth behind the rumors and that Chinese work is either progressing or becoming more visible.

China’s growing military assertiveness has various ramifications. Too often, the State Department has assumed that where it leads, Gulf Cooperation Council members would follow. Arab Gulf states might be frustrated with Washington, but they understood the threat from Tehran meant they had little choice but to grin and bear American arrogance. Congressional and partisan hostility toward Saudi Arabia, however, increasingly causes its leaders to look for balance farther afield. While the United States is adept at deploying its forces, it has less accustomed to having to compete. It is becoming increasingly urgent, however, that it does so; Washington can no longer take the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, let alone Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, for granted.

Likewise, China’s growing military ambitions in the region make it more crucial that Israel stops its flirtation with Beijing. A generation of Israeli leaders has tried to have it both ways: a partnership with the United States while seeking to sell sensitive military technologies to China. Many Israeli officials rationalize that by cultivating China, they can keep it from fully casting its lot with reactionary regional regimes. That was always naïve, but should China be building a base in the Persian Gulf, it should end that illusion once and for all. If Israelis do not conclude similarly, then it is time for both Republicans and Democrats to consider continued guarantees to maintain Israel’s qualitative military edge. After all, U.S. investment in Israel’s security was always part of a broader U.S. strategic calculation. If Israel becomes a strategic liability in a new Cold War, it behooves the United States to mitigate the threat Israeli technology leakage could have on U.S. forces regionally.

Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). You can follow him on Twitter: @mrubin1971.

Source: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/chinas-next-military-move-base-persian-gulf-164184

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Venezuela celebrates arrival of Iranian petrol tanker

The National — Tue, 26 May 2020 14:18:54 +0000

The first of five Iranian tankers has docked in the South American country.

A worker of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA waves an Iranian flag as the Iranian-flagged oil tanker Fortune docks at the El Palito refinery in Puerto Cabello, in the northern state of Carabobo, Venezuela. AFP

Workers on the ‘Fortune’ the Iranian ship with gasoline in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela. EPA

Iranian-flagged oil tanker Fortune docked at the El Palito refinery after its arrival to Puerto Cabello, in the northern state of Carabobo, Venezuela. AFP

The Venezuelan industry minister Tareck El Aissami (C), speaks next to Venezuela’s Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino(R) after the Iranian oil tanker Fortune docked at the El Palito refinery in Puerto Cabello, in the northern state of Carabobo, Venezuela. AFP

Venezuelan authorities celebrated on Monday as the first of five Iranian tankers loaded with petrol docked in the South American country, delivering badly needed fuel to the crisis-stricken country that has the world’s largest oil reserves.

The petrol shipments are arriving in defiance of stiff sanctions by the Trump administration against both countries, and they mark a new era in the burgeoning relationship between Venezuela and Iran, which is expanding its footprint in the Western Hemisphere.

“We keep moving forward and winning,” Venezuela’s Minister of Energy Tareck El Aissami said on Twitter.

State TV played images of the ship pulling through Caribbean waters as Venezuelan fighter jets flew overhead. Mr. El Aissami posted photographs on his Twitter account of the sun rising over the tanker docked at El Palito refinery.

Washington says Iran and Venezuela are run by repressive regimes. It recently announced a $15 million reward for President Nicolas Maduro’s arrest on drug smuggling charges in a “maximum pressure” campaign against the socialist leader.

The US recognizes opposition politician Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s legitimate leader in a coalition of nearly 60 nations, which consider Mr. Maduro’s election a fraud because his most popular rivals were banned from running.

In a sign of rising tension inside Venezuela, the chief prosecutor on Monday asked the pro-Maduro Supreme Court to decide whether Mr. Guaido’s political party Popular Will should be designated a terrorist organization.

“Confronted with the impossibility of obtaining power through votes, Popular Will has turned to violence,” Attorney General Tarek William Saab said, accusing the party of hiring “mercenaries” who carried out a recently failed incursion, among other alleged acts. Mr. Maduro’s advisers had dealt with the man leading the attempt, though Mr. Guaido himself denied any involvement.

The first Iranian ship to arrive, the Fortune, is trailed by four other tankers expected to arrive in the next few days. The shipments, however, only carry enough fuel for two or three weeks, analysts say.

Russ Dallen, head of the Miami investment firm Caracas Capital Markets, said the Iranian shipments were anything but a victory for Venezuelans. The first tanker carries an estimated 11 million gallons of petrol to a nation with roughly 5 million cars, he said.

“Venezuela, the country with the largest oil reserves in the world, is now reduced to importing millions of gallons of gasoline from another failed pariah state halfway around the world,” Mr. Dallen said.

Venezuela also has one of the world’s largest refineries, which has fallen to disrepair. The country produces a fraction of oil it did when Mr. Maduro’s predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez, rose to power two decades ago and launched Venezuela’s socialist revolution.

Critics blame corruption and mismanagement amid an economic crisis that has led to huge migration by Venezuelans seeking to escape poverty, shortages of basic goods, and crime.

Deep petrol shortages have plagued Venezuela for years, though the problem had until recently largely spared the capital of Caracas.

Despite Washington’s objections, the first ship arrived with no interference from US ships patrolling the Caribbean on what officials call a drug interdiction mission.

Mr. Maduro on Sunday expressed gratitude to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ai Khamenei and the Iranian people from “the bottom of my heart”. He said Iran and Venezuela have a right just like any other nations in the world to engage in trade.

We are “two rebel nations, two revolutionary nations that will never kneel down before US imperialism,” Mr. Maduro said. “Venezuela has friends in this world and brave friends at that”.

Source: https://www.thenational.ae/world/the-americas/venezuela-celebrates-arrival-of-iranian-petrol-tanker-1.1024804

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Iran protests: EU urges end to violence

Deutsche Welle — Sun, 24 Nov 2019 13:36:45 +0000

The EU has urged Iran to show “maximum restraint” in handling protests that have rocked the country in recent days. Iranian officials, meanwhile, have arrested protest leaders and imposed a near-total internet blackout.

A spokeswoman for the EU on Thursday expressed condolences to the families of those killed during protests in Iran and called for dialogue to resolve the tensions.

“We expect Iran’s security forces to exercise maximum restraint in handling the protests and for protesters to demonstrate peacefully. Any violence is unacceptable,” Maja Kocijancic, spokesperson for foreign affairs and security policy, said in a statement.

“The rights to freedom of expression and assembly must be guaranteed.”

Germany condemned Iran’s security forces for using excessive force during the unrest. A statement from the Foreign Ministry said: “The right to peaceful protest must be respected. The people in Iran must have the opportunity to show their discontent with political and economic developments, and to voice their opinions freely and peacefully. We call on the Iranian security forces to exercise the greatest possible restraint.”

Internet returns after a five-day blackout

Mass protests erupted in Iran last Friday after the government sharply raised the price of petrol, and the unrest quickly spread to cities and towns across the country.

While officials have confirmed five deaths, human rights group Amnesty International said over 100 demonstrators were believed to have been killed, and that the real toll could be as high as 200.

Meanwhile, the internet slowly returned across the country having been shut down for days by the government in an effort to stem the unrest.

Via Twitter, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo asked Iranians to send the US videos “documenting the regime’s crackdown on protesters.”

Given the lack of internet coverage, it was difficult to obtain reliable information about the extent of the unrest. The blackout, which had reached its fifth day, had prompted Iranians abroad to tweet hashtags like #Internet4Iran and call for an end to the outage.

Protest leaders arrested

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Wednesday declared that the unrest had been put down. “The Iranian people have again succeeded in a historic test and shown they will not let enemies benefit from the situation, even though they might have complaints about the country’s management,” state TV quoted Rouhani as saying.

Iran’s top authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Tuesday the protests had been a security matter, not a popular movement, and had been dealt with successfully.

The country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement, saying the “arrest of the rioters’ leaders has contributed significantly to calming the situation.” Protest leaders were arrested by the Guards’ intelligence arm in the province of Tehran and Alborz as well as in the southern city of Shiraz, according to the statement.

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/iran-protests-eu-urges-end-to-violence/a-51

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Iran says it will fuel centrifuges

Nasser Karimi and Jon Gambrell — Tue, 05 Nov 2019 02:28:17 +0000

In this photo released by the official website of the office of the Iranian Presidency, President Hassan Rouhani, center, attends a ceremony to inaugurate Azadi Innovation Factory in Pardis technology park in west of Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2019. Rouhani announced on Tuesday that Tehran will begin injecting uranium gas into 1,044 centrifuges, the latest step away from its nuclear deal with world powers since President Donald Trump withdrew from the accord over a year ago.

In this photo released by the official website of the office of the Iranian Presidency, President Hassan Rouhani speaks in a ceremony to inaugurate Azadi Innovation Factory in Pardis technology park in west of Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2019. Rouhani announced on Tuesday that Tehran will begin injecting uranium gas into 1,044 centrifuges, the latest step away from its nuclear deal with world powers since President Donald Trump withdrew from the accord over a year ago.

Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, speaks with media visiting the Natanz enrichment facility in central Iran in this photo released Monday by the organization. via ap

A demonstrator holds an anti-U.S. placard during an annual rally outside the former U.S. Embassy in Tehran, Iran, Monday, Nov. 4, 2019. Reviving decades-old cries of “Death to America,” Iran on Monday marked the 40th anniversary of the 1979 student takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the 444-day hostage crisis that followed as tensions remain high over the country’s collapsing nuclear deal with world powers. The Persian on top of the placard is a quotation of the Supreme Leader… Vahid Salemi

TEHRAN, Iran — Iran will start injecting uranium gas into over a thousand centrifuges at a fortified nuclear facility built inside a mountain, the country’s president announced Tuesday in Tehran’s latest step away from its atomic accord with world powers since President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal over a year ago.

President Hassan Rouhani’s announcement means that Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility, publicly revealed only 10 years ago, again will become an active atomic site rather than a research facility as envisioned by the landmark 2015 accord. The State Department announced days ago that it would renew a waiver allowing Russia’s state-run Rosatom nuclear company to continue its conversion work at the site.

The announcement represents a significant development as Fordo’s 1,044 centrifuges previously spun empty for testing purposes under the deal. It also increases pressure on European nations that remain in the accord to offer Iran a way to sell its crude oil abroad. Rouhani threatened to further pull Iran out of the deal in early January 2020, which could mean curtailing international surveillance of its program or pushing enrichment close to weapons-grade levels.

“We are aware of their sensitiveness toward the Fordo facility and those centrifuges,” Rouhani said in a live televised address. “At the same time, we cannot tolerate unilateral fulfillment of our commitments and no commitment from their side“

The International Atomic Energy Agency — the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog monitoring Iran’s compliance with the deal — declined to comment on Rouhani’s announcement. European Union spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic described the bloc as “concerned” by Iran’s decision. The White House on Monday sanctioned members of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s inner circle as part of its maximum pressure campaign against Tehran.

Experts described Iran’s announcement as a major tear to the unraveling deal.

“They’re getting closer and closer to muscle. They aren’t cutting fat right now,” said Richard Nephew, a scholar at Columbia University who worked on the deal while at the State Department.

Fordo sits some 25 kilometers (15 miles) northeast of Qom, a Shiite holy city and the site of a former ammunition dump. Shielded by the mountains, the facility also is ringed by anti-aircraft guns and other fortifications. It is about the size of a football field, large enough to house 3,000 centrifuges, but small and hardened enough to lead U.S. officials to suspect it had a military purpose.

Iran acknowledged Fordo’s existence in 2009 amid a major pressure campaign by Western powers over Tehran’s nuclear program. The West feared Iran could use its program to build a nuclear weapon; Iran insists the program is for peaceful purposes.

The centrifuges at Fordo are first-generation IR-1s. The nuclear deal allowed those at Fordo to spin without uranium gas, while allowing up to 5,060 IR-1s at its Natanz facility to enrich uranium.

Rouhani said Tuesday that the centrifuges at Fordo would be injected with gas on Wednesday. He did not say whether the centrifuges would produce enriched uranium.

However, Rouhani stressed the steps taken so far, including going beyond the deal’s enrichment and stockpile limitations, could be reversed if Europe offers a way for it to avoid U.S. sanctions choking off its crude oil sales abroad. However, a trade mechanism has yet to take hold and French-proposed $15 billion line of credit has not emerged.

“We should be able to sell our oil,” Rouhani said. “We should be able to bring our money” into the country.

The 2015 nuclear deal, which saw Iran limit its enrichment in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions, called for Fordo to become “a nuclear, physics and technology center.” Rosatom did not immediately respond to a request for comment about its work there. However, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the joint Russian-Iranian project at Fordo would not be affected by Tehran’s latest move.

Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, said Moscow wants the nuclear deal to survive though it understood Iran’s anger over the “unprecedented and illegitimate sanctions against” it.

Rouhani’s announcement came after Ali Akhbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said Monday that Tehran had doubled the number of advanced IR-6 centrifuges operating in the country to 60.

A centrifuge enriches uranium by rapidly spinning uranium hexafluoride gas. An IR-6 centrifuge can produce enriched uranium 10 times faster than an IR-1, Iranian officials say.

Iranian scientists also are working on a prototype called the IR-9, which works 50-times faster than the IR-1, Salehi said.

As of now, Iran is enriching uranium up to 4.5%, in violation of the accord’s limit of 3.67%. Enriched uranium at the 3.67% level is enough for peaceful pursuits but is far below weapons-grade levels of 90%. At the 4.5% level, it is enough to help power Iran’s Bushehr reactor, the country’s only nuclear power plant. Prior to the atomic deal, Iran only reached up to 20%.

Tehran has gone from producing some 450 grams (1 pound) of low-enriched uranium a day to 5 kilograms (11 pounds), Salehi said. Iran now holds over 500 kilograms (1,102 pounds) of low-enriched uranium, Salehi said. The deal had limited Iran to 300 kilograms (661 pounds).

The collapse of the nuclear deal coincided with a tense summer of mysterious attacks on oil tankers and Saudi oil facilities that the U.S. blamed on Iran. Tehran denied the allegation, though it did seize oil tankers and shoot down a U.S. military surveillance drone.

As previous steps brought Iran no closer to a new deal with Europe, Fordo could be a “make or break” decision for Tehran, said Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, a research fellow at a British think tank called the Royal United Services Institute. Beyond this, Iran can only increase enrichment, limit U.N. surveillance of its program or pressure the region through a “retaliatory approach,” she said.

“It’s a very risky gamble. You know, you’re risking basically an open confrontation with the West,” Tabrizi said. “And that is something that apparently the Iranians are ready to go for.”

___

Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Associated Press writer Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow contributed to this report.

Source: https://www.gazettenet.com/Iran-to-fuel-centrifuges-in-new-step-away-from-nuclear-deal-30080905

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Putin Is Trolling the United States in the Persian Gulf

Dimitar Bechev — Thu, 19 Sep 2019 17:39:28 +0000

In the wake of the drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Russian president has positioned himself as a peacemaker. But continued conflict is his friend.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani attend a joint press conference in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, on Feb. 14. SERGEI CHIRIKOV/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Think what you will about Russian President Vladimir Putin, but the man does have a wry sense of humor. Trolling has become one of his trademarks. If Saudi Arabia wants to protect itself, he hinted on Sept. 16, it should make a wise decision and follow Iran and Turkey, who bought Russian air-defense systems. Russia’s S-300 and S-400, he continued “are capable of defending any kind of infrastructure in Saudi Arabia from any kind of attack.” Flanked by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at a joint press conference in Ankara, Turkey, following a round of talks on Syria, Putin was poking at another friend of his, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. “What should the Saudis buy,” Rouhani asked, laughing, “S-300 or S-400?” Putin’s retort was quick: “Let them choose.”

Russia’s response to the recent drone attack on Saudi Aramco oil facilities speaks volumes about its place in the Middle East. Had the crisis occurred several years ago, few would have cared what Moscow thought about Gulf affairs. But now, thanks to its military intervention in Syria, Russia is seen as a power broker. And if the Russian president had said that Russia is “locked and loaded” to respond to Iran’s apparent aggression in Saudi Arabia last weekend, as U.S. President Donald Trump did, he would probably mean it.

Except he won’t say it. Unlike the United States, Russia has no dog in the Iran-Saudi fight. The essence of its policy is to try to be on good terms with everyone: with the Iranians as well as with their foresworn enemies Saudi Arabia and Israel, with Turkey and the Kurds, with Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Damascus and its opponents. With a relatively modest military footprint, Russia is not in the business of playing the local sheriff, and it steers clear of other people’s quarrels. It seeks to make geopolitical and commercial gains without taking excessive risks. That stands in stark contrast with the United States, which, for all intents and purposes, still remains the hegemonic power in the Middle East and as such bears the cost of maintaining order.

Beyond that, troubles in the Gulf benefit Russian interests. The rise of oil prices is good news for the Kremlin. estimated to bring in an extra $7.5 million in revenue for Russia each day.">A $1 increase is estimated to bring in an extra $7.5 million in revenue for Russia each day.

No wonder that the Moscow stock market rallied on Monday, with stocks in the state-owned Rosneft energy company up by 5 percent. At the same time, the Russian government is treading with caution. Energy Minister Alexander Novak phoned up his Saudi counterpart, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, and signaled that Russia won’t increase production to expand its share of the global market at Riyadh’s expense. The so-called OPEC+ Pact of November 2016, which was aimed at controlling output, is working, with Saudi Arabia and Russia remaining the principal stakeholders.

In past years, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia has thrived. Mohammed bin Salman rubbed shoulders with Putin at the opening game of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. In October 2017, his father, King Salman, became the first Saudi monarch to come to Moscow, a decade after Putin’s official visit to Riyadh, another first. And on Sept.18, Putin had a phone call with the crown prince, confirming he will be coming again this fall. The Russian government used to look at the Gulf as a cauldron of radical Islam spilling its destructive influence in the restless North Caucasus. Nowadays, it is seen as a source of opportunities—whether because of its premium real estate in Dubai catering to well-heeled Russians or lucrative defense markets that can absorb Russian-made gear. Indeed, Putin was only half-joking in Ankara. After all, the Saudi-funded government in Egypt just signed a $2 billion contract to buy 50 of Russia’s MiG-35 fighter jets. Gulf money is already pouring into Russia’s coffers.

Meanwhile, the ongoing rapprochement between Moscow and Riyadh does not change the fact that Iran remains the Russian partner of choice. Although the two countries’ interests are sometimes misaligned, diplomatic, defense, and trading ties with Tehran are better than at any point in history. Together with the Europeans, Russia is a guarantor of the Iran nuclear deal, or whatever remains of it. Putin is now posing as a peacemaker in Yemen, too. In Ankara this week, he quoted a verse from the Quran: “And remember the favor of Allah upon you—when you were enemies and he brought your hearts together and you became, by his favor, brothers.” Both Rouhani and Erdogan nodded approvingly.

Moscow is also Tehran’s ally in Syria. The three-way summit in Ankara announced progress toward the establishment of a constitutional committee in the war-torn country. In other words, through this meeting, Putin and Rouhani pushed Erdogan one step closer to restoring ties with the Assad regime. Iranians made another important gain in getting Russia (as well as Turkey) to condemn Israeli airstrikes in Syria. Whatever differences the Russians and the Iranians may have on the ground—notably backing rival factions within the Assad regime— they have succeeded in papering over them for now.

Washington’s bellicose rhetoric about Iran is likely to bring Moscow and Tehran even closer. Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, and Sergei Lavrov, the Russian minister of foreign affairs, pushed back strongly against the U.S. line that Iran is to blame for the drone attacks against the oil and gas processing facilities at Khurais and Abqaiq. To be sure, if tensions get out of hand and the United States ends up starting a war against Iran, the Russians will stand on the sidelines. But given the Trump administration’s penchant to rattle sabers and then back away, Putin could well reap another opportunity to burnish his image as the Middle East’s rising star.

Source: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/19/putin-is-trolling-the-united-states-in-the-persian-gulf/

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In Major Threat To Dollar’s Reserve Status, Russia Offers To Join European SWIFT-Bypass

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jul 2019 20:17:46 +0000

Three weeks after a meeting between the countries who signed the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was ditched by US, French, British and German officials said the trade mechanism which was proposed last summer – designed to circumvent both SWIFT as well as US sanctions banning trade with Iran – called Instex, is now operational.

And while we wait for the White House to threaten Europe with even greater tariffs unless it ends this special purpose vehicle – it already did once back in May when it warned that anyone associated with the SPV could be barred from the U.S. financial system if it goes into effect – a response from the US is now assured, because in the biggest attack on the dollar as a reserve currency to date, on Thursday, Russia signaled its willingness to join the controversial payments channel, and has called on Brussels to expand the new mechanism to cover oil exports, the FT reported.

Moscow’s involvement in the Instex channel would mark a significant step forward in attempts by the EU and Russia to rescue a 2015 Iran nuclear deal that has been unraveling since the Trump administration abandoned it last year.

“Russia is interested in close co-ordination with the European Union on Instex,” the Russian foreign ministry told the Financial Times. “The more countries and continents involved, the more effective will the mechanism be as a whole.”

… and the more isolated the US will be as a currency union meant to evade SWIFT and bypass the dollar’s reserve currency status will soon include virtually all relevant and important countries. Only China would be left outstanding; after the rest of the world’s would promptly join.

On Thursday, the Kremlin confirmed the foreign ministry’s take:

“We are tracking the information regarding this. If I’m not mistaken, there have already been statements from our side that, taking into account the first experience of using this system, when it is activated, we cannot rule out interaction in this regard,” Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, told reporters.

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“This is an important project. It is aimed at protecting the interests of European economic operators against the background of illegal attempts to restrict their activities by third countries,” he added.

Earlier, the Russian foreign ministry hinted at precisely what will take place next, when it said that “The full potential of Instex will only be able to be deployed if it will be open to the participation of countries which are not members of the European Union.” Such as Russia and China.

Ironically, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, has previously described Instex as “not sufficient” even though Russia was far more promise, and said Instex was “a good tool in the implementation of projects . . . that the United States has strongly torpedoed” but called for it to be expanded to include crude oil.

“If the encouraging statements by the EU . . . will be backed up by concrete steps and practical advances, including in relation to the use of Instex for servicing trading in Iranian oil, it will help stabilise the difficult situation created around the JCPOA,” it said.

Russia has strengthened its ties with Iran in recent years as part of Moscow’s increased geopolitical importance in the Middle East, including its role of propping up the Assad regime in the war in Syria.

At a meeting with Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to continue developing trade ties with Tehran and said Moscow was committed to a project to expand the Bushehr nuclear plant in Iran. As the FT correctly notes, efforts to rescue the nuclear deal have been a rare area of co-operation between Brussels and Moscow, whose relations have soured in recent years.

* * *

Since US President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal last May, its other signatories — Germany, France, UK, China, and Russia — have scrambled to find ways to maintain trade with Iran. But they have been stymied by companies’ reluctance to risk Washington’s wrath.

As a reminder, Instex was launched in January but subsequently delayed by bureaucratic hurdles and the complications caused by the US sanctions. It only became operational last month and has been criticized by both Tehran – for having big limitations – and the US – for existing.

Iran has a more valid point: just 10 EU states are members and the mechanism’s initial credit line of several million euros is a fraction of EU-Iran trade, which stood at more than €20bn annually before the US sanctions.

Meanwhile, it appears that Moscow will get an invite because as the FT adds, Brussels is interested in bringing Russia into Instex, but it would first seek to get the channel up and running with humanitarian aid trades before potentially expanding its scope or membership.

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy head, said this week that the trade mechanism “has always been conceived to be open to third countries . . . and we are already seeing interest by some of them to participate in that”, although she did not identify them. “The issue of whether or not Instex will deal with oil is a discussion that is ongoing among the shareholders,” she added.

And while Iran wants Europe to buy its oil so that it can use the hard currency earnings to import basic commodities and medicines through Instex, Russia is seeking to find ever more creative ways to chip away at US global dominance, with a focus on the dollar’s reserve currency status.

Additionally, Moscow previously said that it would look into ways to facilitate or finance Iranian oil exports if Instex was not launched or proved to be ineffective.

As we discussed extensively last summer, the idea behind Instex was to set up a mirror image transaction system that replaces potentially sanctionable international payments between Europe and Iran with payments that do not cross Iran’s borders, nor are they denominated in dollars to avoid giving the US veto rights.

As a final point, the FT quotes analyst who said that China, which has repeatedly defied US sanctions on Iran, has greater potential to hand Tehran an economic lifeline by continuing to purchase Iranian crude exports; it has yet to be seen if China will also join Instex.

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-18/major-threat-dollars-reserve-status-russia-offers-join-european-swift-bypass

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Iran to ‘resist’ Trump decision on Israel’s hold over Golan

AP via The Washington Times — Fri, 29 Mar 2019 13:27:23 +0000

Visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump hold up the signed proclamation recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights as Netanyahu leaves the White House in Washington, Monday, March 25, 2019. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) – Iran’s president said Friday that Iranians would “resist” the Trump administration’s acceptance of Israel’s control over the occupied Golan Heights, adding his voice to many Arab nations, including a number of U.S. allies, who have denounced the U.S. decision.

Hassan Rouhani said the U.S. move is “trampling on international regulations about the Golan.” Iranians too “should resist and that way gain victory” over the U.S. and Israel, he said.

Israel seized the Golan in the 1967 Mideast war after Syria had for years used the strategic plateau to shell northern Israel.

President Donald Trump’s formal recognition last week of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan sparked widespread international condemnation. The announcement was a major shift in American policy and gave Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a needed political boost ahead of April elections.

Syria and many Arab states slammed Trump’s move.

Meeting in the Turkish Mediterranean coastal city of Antalya on Friday, the Turkish and Russian foreign ministers also denounced the decision.

“I feel this is the conscious, deliberate demonstration of permissiveness,” Russia’s Sergei Lavrov told reporters at a joint news conference. “Such demonstration of permissiveness, along with intimidations, ultimatums, and sanctions, are basically the toolkit which the U.S. use in foreign policy. It is sad.”

Turkey’s top diplomat, Mevlut Cavusoglu, said the decision “does not add to the region’s peace and stability, on the contrary, it creates unrest and chaos in the region.”

“It is out of the question for us to accept and recognize such a decision,” he added.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Thursday the decision is a reminder to Arab and Muslim countries that U.S. and Israel “will steal your lands.”

Iran doesn’t recognize Israel and supports Syria and anti-Israeli militant groups like Hamas and the Lebanese Hezbollah group.

Source: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/mar/29/iran-to-resist-trump-decision-on-israels-hold-over/

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Israeli Strikes on Sovereign Syria Must Be Stopped – Moscow

Sputnik News — Fri, 08 Feb 2019 11:55:57 +0000

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said on 21 January that it had hit alleged Iranian military facilities in Syria, including weapons depots in the area of Damascus International Airport, an intelligence centre, and a training camp, in response to a reported rocket strike on the Golan Heights.

“With regard to the latest Israeli attacks, we said that such arbitrary attacks on sovereign Syrian territory should be stopped and excluded. Any strikes destabilize the situation even more. No one should conduct actions in Syria that go beyond the scope of antiterrorist objectives”, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said in an interview with Russian media.

Vershinin praised the operation of the Russian-Israeli deconfliction mechanism, which has been in place for over a year, and voiced readiness to make it even more efficient. He also claimed that related discussions between the country’s military were underway.

“We obviously want a more efficient deconfliction mechanism. We want to avoid incidents similar to what happened to our aircraft”, Vershinin said.

At the same time, Vershinin noted that, in general, between Russia and Israel “the military line of deconfliction is steadily working, the line has been operational for over a year and we are improving it”.

The statement comes after the Israeli military announced that they had attacked alleged Iranian arms depots in Syria and several air defence batteries, which opened fire on the aircraft involved in the bombings. The attack, according to the Israeli military, was a response to an attempted rocket attack on the Golan Heights, which was reported the day before.
On 13 January, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel, in order to prevent Iran’s military consolidation in Syria, is ready to step up attacks on Iranian facilities in the neighbouring country.

Iranian spokesman Ramazan Sharif has denied Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claims about airstrikes on Iranian bases in Syria as baseless.

Relations between Israel and Iran have recently been even more strained. Israel has been opposing Iran’s alleged military presence in Syria, fearing that Tehran might gain increased influence in the region. Iran has stressed that it only sends advisers at the request of the Syrian government.

Russia, Iran, Turkey Flexible on Composition of Syrian Constitutional Committee

Sergei Vershinin also stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will discuss the situation in Syria’s Idlib and the Syrian political settlement during their summit, which is set to be held in the Russian resort city of Sochi on 14 February.

“The situation ‘on the ground’ is always included on the agenda of the Astana format-meetings. This concerns the situation in Idlib and all the related details… We will certainly discuss the political process and the aims of the post-conflict development of the country”, Vershinin noted.

He added that the three leaders would also discuss the developments “on the ground” and the new efforts that Russia, Turkey and Iran could undertake in order to stabilize the situation in Syria and to prevent terror attacks there.

Humanitarian assistance to Syria and refugee repatriation will also be discussed.

Source: https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201902081072242071-moscow-syria-israel-strike/

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Idlib and Beyond – The Vultures are circling in Syria

Thomas Donnelly — Tue, 18 Sep 2018 10:19:48 +0000

Wreckage from an airstrike by pro-Assad forces near Idlib Province, September 8, 2018 AMER ALHAMWE / AFP / Getty

Over the past several weeks, the war in Syria has crept back into the headlines, even competing with the drama and comedy of the Brett Kavanaugh hearings. The focus of attention is a potential humanitarian crisis and the prospect that the Assad regime might again use chemical weapons. Even President Donald Trump interrupted his normal Twitter flow to warn the Syrians, Russians, and Iranians not to “recklessly attack Idlib Province”—the last large pocket of Syrian resistance—lest “hundreds of thousands” of people be killed. “Don’t let that happen!” urged Trump.

The coalition backing Bashar al-Assad may be ruthless, but it isn’t reckless. Over the seven years of the Syrian conflict, it’s stuck to its guns, closely synchronized its diplomatic and military efforts, and, as the tide of the fighting has turned in its favor, adhered to a coherent campaign plan to reestablish control of the major population centers in the country. That campaign has largely centered on Syrian Highway 5, the major north-south line of communication in the east, connecting Aleppo in the north through Damascus to the southern border. The last link in this chain, still not reclaimed by Assad, runs through Idlib, which is also the last part of the U.N. “de-escalation zone”—a fiction that has considerably eased the Syrian government’s task.

The larger question is whether the conquest of Idlib would mark simply the end of the Syrian war and the survival of the Assad dynasty or whether it would signal the creation of a modern Iranzamin—loosely, “Greater Iran”—a sphere of influence reaching from the Caucasus and Central Asia to the Mediterranean, and what that might mean for the regional balance of power. The Idlib campaign also raises questions about past and present prospects for American interests and allies.

That the Assad regime survives at all is something of a wonder, after seven years of bloody war arising from relatively small and peaceful protests in January 2011. The process of survival, however, has cost Assad much of his autonomy, mortgaged to Russia and, especially, Iran. Indeed, what is emerging from Baghdad to Damascus is a kind of “Larger Lebanon,” where Tehran-backed Shia militias, created in the image of Hezbollah, hold the keys to the kingdoms.

To be sure, Syria and Iraq—where the intra-Shia struggle is just hitting high gear—are imperfect proxies for Iran, just as Hezbollah has been. And like the Lebanese original, which occasionally surprises even itself by lurching into open war against Israel, it seems quite likely that the rump regimes in Damascus and Baghdad will from time to time contravene Iranian direction in pursuit of their immediate interests. Yet from an Iranian perspective, these are not bugs but features of a model that has permitted Tehran to exert influence well beyond what might be feasible were its “revolutionary” posture to appear too Persian, too overtly imperial. And this “soft-power” approach has yielded hard-power benefits. Both Hezbollah fighters and, in recent years, Shia fighters from Iraq have served in Syria; these militia members have taken on some of the qualities of mercenaries, if not professionals.

The creation of Larger Lebanon already has had profound geopolitical effects in the Levant and the Gulf. It is making life even more miserable for Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan, constraining his -neo-Ottoman dreams. Erdogan, not surprisingly, is sharing his pain with Europe, warning that the Idlib offensive will generate a new wave of refugees that he will be unable to control. There is some truth in this, although Erdogan’s current unhappiness may have more to do with the lack of respect shown him by Moscow and Tehran, and the collapsing Turkish lira, than sympathy for his “Syrian brothers,” as he calls them in his tweets. At the recent summit in Tehran with Vladimir Putin and Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani, Erdogan was very much the junior partner among the self-described “guarantor states” of the situation in Syria. Turkey may have a seat at this table, but Iran and Russia are in control of the menu. The Lebanonization of Syria and Iraq poses a strategic challenge to which Erdogan—who has been burning his bridges with Europe and the United States—has little response.

While the Turks have moved tanks to their border with Syria, the Russians have resumed and ratcheted up the intensity of airstrikes against southern Idlib. This repeats the pattern of the Syrian reconquest: initial Russian longer-range strikes to soften up opposition strongholds followed by Assad regime terror-bombing and then, cautiously, a mix of Syrian troops, Iranian Quds Force operatives and Shia militias, and a sprinkling of Russian forward observers and contract fighters. Because Idlib is the last redoubt of the opposition, it has received an influx of perhaps as many as a million refugees from other parts of western and southern Syria, and is defended by some 60,000 or more well-armed militia members of its own, including a number of hardcore jihadist units. The bombing effort is likely to be a patient one, perhaps punctuated by U.N.-moderated ceasefires that allow the attackers to regroup and the resistance to slip through the desert to the east or over the mountains to the north. The regime and its allies are more than willing to destroy Idlib to save it, but they are also sensitive to their own manpower limits.

It is also likely that Russia will remain an important player for the coming years, even as Iran tries to consolidate a Larger Lebanon. Not only do Russian aircraft, air defenses, and long-range artillery provide important tactical elements to the coalition, but its role in deterring American intervention would remain critical—even past the point at which Iran achieves a nuclear capability. Putin’s bold if small 2015 investment in Syria has thus far returned giant strategic profit, and Russia is now the sole broker for all interested parties, able to bargain with the United States, Saudi Arabia, and even Israel, as well as Iran and Assad. Experience probably has given Russian intelligence the best outside appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of Iran’s militias and special assets, including covert operatives. After three years of steady but manageable effort, Russia shows no signs of exhaustion or overstretch and now enjoys a reputation for standing by its allies that resonates across the region.

This is precisely what the United States most lacks. The Trump administration, it must be said, has at least stopped the hemorrhaging of American strategic credit. This is surprising, considering the president’s oft-expressed desire to complete the withdrawals begun by his -predecessor. It also may not survive the inevitable departures of Defense secretary James Mattis and White House chief of staff John Kelly, whose Marine careers were defined by the wars of the Middle East. Whether Secretary of State Mike Pompeo could carry the load alone seems doubtful, and who can predict how a setback in this fall’s midterms—not to mention the denouement of the Mueller probe and the impeachment proceedings that might follow it—will further unhinge the president?

There is, however, the shadow of a Middle East strategy flickering on the White House walls. Recent news reports indicate that the administration intends to retain a residual U.S. force of several thousand in western Iraq, nominally to ensure the continued suppression of ISIS or its third-generation spawn. There are plans for staying in Afghanistan as well. These forces, along with the continued U.S. Navy patrolling of the Gulf and the Arabian Sea, do not themselves make for a policy of containing Iran, let alone a strategy of rollback; the military presence is necessary but hardly sufficient.

More telling is the administration’s patience with Saudi Arabia, including its tolerance of the very ugly Saudi war in Yemen. The larger strategic prize—and perhaps a light at the end of the current very dark and long tunnel—is the success of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s project of reform in Riyadh. That may be a long shot, but such is the degeneration of American influence in the Arab world since the retreat from Iraq. Indeed, the United States now finds itself in a position similar to where it was in the late 1940s, when Presidents Roosevelt and Truman lashed America’s Middle East hopes to the masts of Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Stepping back into the public square the other week, Barack Obama rightly described Trumpism as not the cause but the effect of the divisiveness and demagoguery besetting American political life over the past decade. He would know. And what is true domestically is true internationally, too. Even more so: “Iraq Derangement Syndrome” has been more virulent and long-lived than hatred of our last or our current president, and it certainly will not be cured by a change of administration.

The dismemberment of Idlib will create not only a humanitarian disaster but a strategic one for the United States, its interests, and its allies, in Europe and well as the Middle East proper. Donald Trump is right to scream, “Don’t let that happen!” But until he, or we, are prepared to do something beyond appealing to the tender heart of Vladimir Putin, it’s going to happen. And happen again.

THOMAS DONNELLY

is director of the Marilyn Ware Center for Security Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.

Source: https://www.weeklystandard.com/thomas-donnelly/idlib-crisis-the-vultures-are-circling-in-syria

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