Other data beat forecasts, but not for positive reasons. Rising inflation was attributed to bad weather rather than stronger domestic demand, a jump in imports reflected frontloaded chip purchases before expected U.S. technology curbs, and a pickup in retail sales was flattered by low comparisons in 2023.

In all, the data paints a worrying picture for policymakers, who look increasingly likely to ramp up stimulus unless they accept slower growth and the prospect of a downward spiral in consumer and business confidence.