Iran nuclear deal (2015) - Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association

Can Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron save the Iran nuclear deal?

Deutsche Welle — Tue, 24 Apr 2018 02:28:43 +0000

During separate talks with President Donald Trump this week, Macron and Merkel will urge the US to stick to the Iran nuclear deal. In an interview with Fox News, the French leader warned there is no “Plan B.”

When French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel meet President Donald Trump in the White House within days of each other, it will represent the most high profile European push yet to try to convince him to remain in the Iran nuclear accord, which he has repeatedly branded as the “worst deal ever.”

The Franco-German charm offensive is certainly the most visible effort to prevent the Trump administration from pulling out of the deal which was signed in 2015. But it is only the tip of the iceberg.

Negotiations are ongoing between the so-called E3 group, Germany, France, Britain, and the US to reach an agreement that would satisfy the demands the president made in his January 12 ultimatum when he last waived sanctions against Iran. Last week, hundreds of European legislators wrote an open letter urging the US Congress to support the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the Iran nuclear accord is officially called.

But the concerted European push, according to high-ranking former US officials and Washington-based European diplomats, may well fall short of its goal to persuade Trump ahead of the May 12 deadline to renew the sanctions relief for Iran, a key step in keeping the nuclear deal alive.

John Bolton could amplify Trump’s own impulses against the Iran nuclear accord

Pessimistic outlook

“Unfortunately, I don’t know anyone in the United States who is particularly optimistic that the sanction waivers will be signed again at the relevant time,” said Laura Holgate, who served as US ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) until President Trump’s inauguration in January 2017.

The IAEA, which is tasked with monitoring and verifying Tehran’s compliance with the Iran agreement, has so far concluded that the country did comply with the accord.

Elizabeth Rosenberg, a former senior sanctions official at the Treasury Department, shared Holgate’s skepticism about the chances that the US will remain in the agreement — even if negotiators’ succeed in hammering out an agreement.

“I feel much less hopeful about whether the US administration will in the end continue to fulfill its obligations under the deal, which is to say I am doubtful that the US will stay in the deal,” said Rosenberg.

“Flaws” to fix

European diplomats who requested not to be named in order to talk openly about this sensitive issue expressed hope that negotiators might be able to find common ground, but remained skeptical whether this would ultimately suffice for Trump.

“I am hopeful, but not confident,” said one. “No one knows what Trump will do in the end.”

A diplomat of another European country said he was hopeful that a joint document could be negotiated, but emphasized that even US officials these days cannot say for certain whether the president would accept it.

Of the three “flaws” Trump demanded to be fixed in order for him to extend the Iran sanctions relief — Tehran’s ballistic weapons program, expanded IAEA access to Iranian facilities and the so-called sunset clauses — the latter is the main stumbling block, say the US and European experts.

Bolton and Trump

While the Trump administration effectively wants to extend the limits on Tehran’s nuclear program, which according to the accord are set to fully expire by 2031, the Europeans are reluctant to do so, saying this would de facto be a renegotiation of the agreement.

From a US perspective, there are further complications regarding negotiations with the E3. Richard Nephew, the lead sanctions expert for US negotiations with Tehran in the Obama administration where he also served as the National Security Council’s Iran director, questions to what extent Germany, France and Britain can really speak for all other EU countries, some of which favor a softer approach vis-à-vis Tehran than the E3.

“Germany cannot force sanctions retaliation upon Italy, and Britain, with everything that’s going on with Brexit, they sure can’t force any EU response,” he said.

But the core of the problem, agreed the former and current officials from the US and Europe, is Trump’s long-standing fundamental opposition against the Iran accord, a view which is only likely to be amplified by Trump’s new hard-line National Security Advisor John Bolton who in an editorial three years ago advocated “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran.”

“There is so much emphasis in President Trump’s track record as a candidate and in office directed even in an ideological manner against this deal, it seems hard to believe there will be some magical diplomatic solution that allows him to both spurn the deal and leave it in place,” said Rosenberg.

What to tell Trump?

Given Trump’s deep-seated animus against the Iran deal — his predecessor’s signature foreign policy achievement — how much can Merkel and Macron realistically do to try to convince Trump to remain in the agreement?

Their influence is limited, argue the former US officials. Their suggestion would be to try to establish a warm personal relationship with the president and to be prepared with an offer that could encourage him to stick to the agreement.

But ultimately, said former US IAEA ambassador Holgate, Merkel and Macron should try to explain why it is in Washington’s own interest not to kill the deal.

“The only thing I can think of is to really bring home what the day after a broken agreement looks like. How can that possibly be in the US’s interest to have our European alliance in tatters, to have Iran unconstrained and perhaps more motivated than they have ever been in the last 15 years, to actually feel like they need a nuclear weapon to defend themselves against some future US action. I just can’t conceive of a way how the world without the JCPOA is in the US’ interest.”

Source: http://www.dw.com/en/can-angela-merkel-and-emmanuel-macron-save-the-iran-nuclear-deal/a-43478169

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Rouhani urges Trump to remain in nuclear deal or face ‘severe consequences’

I24 News — Tue, 24 Apr 2018 01:57:48 +0000

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani delivers a speech in Tehran on February 11, 2018

STRINGER (IRANIAN PRESIDENCY/AFP/File)

Trump threatened to pull US out of deal unless Europe agrees to supplement it with tougher controls

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani urged US President Donald Trump to remain in the 2015 nuclear deal or instead “face severe consequences” as the deadline for recertifying the accord edged closer.

“I am telling those in the White House that if they do not live up to their commitments, the Iranian government will react firmly,” Rouhani said in a speech broadcast live on state television.

“If anyone betrays the deal, they should know that they would face severe consequences,” he added.

An Iranian official said that Tehran may even consider withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if the nuclear deal is cancelled.

Trump has threatened to pull Washington out of the agreement unless European capitals agree to supplement it with tougher controls on Iran’s missile program and future ability to return to nuclear fuel enrichment, which he believes the current “sunset clauses” permit.

But his partners continue to believe the implementation of the agreement under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) represents the best way to prevent Tehran from seeking the atomic bomb. Europe would see Trump’s withdrawal of support as a disaster, both in terms of the deal itself – a central plank in their non-proliferation strategy – and in terms of relations with Washington.

US President Donald Trump, right, and France’s Emmanuel Macron talk regularly, have shared memorable handshakes and claim an “unbreakable” friendship

ALAIN JOCARD (AFP/File)

Signalling support for his ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that the deal “has to be either fully fixed or fully nixed.” He added, “Israel will not allow regimes that seek our annihilation to acquire nuclear weapons.”

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, encouraged the European signatories to the nuclear deal on Monday to convince Trump not to ‘nix’ the deal as he has continually threatened to do.

Zarif said that there is no “plan B” to the deal and that Trump should start implementing his “part of the bargain.”

“It is either all or nothing. European leaders should encourage Trump not just to stay in the nuclear deal, but more important to begin implementing his part of the bargain in good faith,” the foreign minister tweeted.

Rouhani’s comments come as French President Emmanuel Macron arrives in Washington for talks likely to be dominated by the nuclear accord.

“I don’t have any Plan B for nuclear — against Iran,” Macron told Fox News Sunday in an English-language interview, arguing that working to curb Tehran’s missile program and contain its regional influence could be accomplished in addition to the 2015 accord.

Trump in January set a 120-day deadline for US lawmakers and European allies to “fix” his predecessor Barack Obama’s main foreign policy achievement of the Iran nuclear deal or face a US exit

STR (afp/AFP/File)

“So that’s a question we will discuss,” he said, as he prepared to head to Washington.

In addition, the agreement was the fruit of months of intense diplomacy between Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States — under EU auspices. Only Trump wants to rip it up.

Russia and China have agreed to work together to thwart any attempts to sabotage the nuclear deal with Iran.

“There are attempts to interfere with the international order upon which the United Nations depends,” Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said after talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing. “We said clearly with China that we will stop attempts to sabotage these agreements that were passed in a UN Security Council resolution,” he added.

If the United States buries the deal, Iran is unlikely to stick to the agreement alongside the other signatories — Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia.

Iran has vowed to “vigorously” resume production of enriched uranium — a key bomb-making ingredient — if the US quits the deal.

Source: https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/173073-180424-rouhani-urges-trump-to-remain-in-nuclear-deal-or-threatens-severe-consequences

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Trump, Macron to face differences on Iran, trade, as French visit begins

Steve Holland — Mon, 23 Apr 2018 11:37:31 +0000

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes French President Emmanuel Macron to the White House on Monday to kick off a three-day state visit expected to be dominated by U.S.-European differences on the Iran nuclear deal and trade.

It will be Trump’s first hosting of a state visit since he took power in January 2017. The pair will get a sense of their two countries’ shared history during an evening meal on Monday night at Mount Vernon, the home of George Washington, the first U.S. president and Revolutionary War commander whose alliance with France was critical to victory over the British.

The major work between them will be done on Tuesday during White House meetings and a joint news conference.

On Wednesday, President Macron will address a Joint Session of Congress, making the anniversary of the day that French General Charles de Gaulle addressed the Joint Session of Congress, April 25, 1960.

Trump and Macron began their improbable friendship a year ago in Belgium with a jaw-clenching handshake. While other European leaders have kept a certain distance from Trump, Macron has worked hard to remain close to the U.S. president and the two leaders speak frequently by phone.

Macron is on something of a rescue mission for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which Trump has vowed to scrap unless European allies strengthen it by mid-May.

The deal reached between Iran, the United States and five other world powers put curbs on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

Macron said on Fox News Sunday that it would be better to protect the Iran deal instead of get rid of it, saying there is no “Plan B” to take its place.

“Is this agreement perfect and this JCPOA a perfect thing for our relationship with Iran? No. But for nuclear — what do you have? As a better option? I don’t see it,” he said.

Macron also wants to persuade Trump to exempt European nations from steel tariffs that are part of the U.S. president’s plan to reduce chronic trade deficits with countries around the world, chiefly China.

The two leaders are also expected to discuss Syria, less than two weeks after the United States, France and Britain launched airstrikes in Syria in retaliation for a suspected chemical weapons attack that killed dozens in Douma, Syria.

Macron said last week that he believed he had persuaded Trump to keep U.S. troops in Syria, but Trump has been insistent on bringing them home, although he has not publicly provided a definite timetable.

Whether substantive progress will be made on these and other issues was unclear.

“Whether we will actually solve, or come to closure, or a full detailed agreement on some of the issues that we’ve touched on is difficult to say at this remove,” a senior administration official told reporters on Friday.

Reporting By Steve Holland; Editing by Daniel Wallis

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-france/trump-macron-to-face-differences-on-iran-trade-as-french-visit-begins-idUSKBN1HU0E9

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Netanyahu turns up the volume as Iran deadline nears

I24 News — Mon, 23 Apr 2018 01:33:40 +0000

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a conference in Tel Aviv on March 27, 2018

JACK GUEZ (AFP)

The 2015 nuclear deal ‘gives Iran a clear path to a nuclear arsenal’ PM said

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a fresh call Monday for an overhaul of the Iran nuclear deal as US President Donald Trump’s deadline for further Iranian concessions edged closer.

Trump has threatened to tear up the 2015 agreement that lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs to its nuclear activity, unless it curbs its ballistic missile program by May 12.

“Israel will not allow regimes that seek our annihilation to acquire nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu told an audience of diplomats in a speech in Jerusalem, at the Menachem Begin Heritage Center event marking Israel’s 70th anniversary.

“This is why this deal has to be either fully fixed or fully nixed,” he said in English.

Iran says it is ready to relaunch its nuclear program — which the West suspects is designed to produce a bomb — if Trump kills the deal.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif encouraged the European signatories to sign the deal on Monday, stating that there is no “plan B.”

US President Donald Trump has described North Korea’s pledge to halt nuclear and missile tests as “big progress”

JOE RAEDLE (GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File)

Netanyahu said the 2015 agreement leaves Iran able to quickly reboot its nuclear programme to enable military production.

“It gives Iran a clear path to a nuclear arsenal,” he said. “It allows, over a few years, unlimited enrichment of uranium, the core ingredient required to produce nuclear bombs – and nothing else – and it also does not deal with the ballistic missiles that can deliver this weapon to many, many countries.”

He explained that former Prime Minister Menachem Begin “exemplified for us the commitment to defend Israel’s security at all costs.” The Begin Doctrine called on the Jewish State to destroy any enemy country’s nuclear capabilities, in 1981 it order the destruction of Iraq’s nuclear reactor.

This comes to a background of rising tensions between Israel and Iran who have been engaged in a succession of verbal altercations since Israel’s alleged April 9 strike on an Iranian-operated air base in Syria’s Homs. The strike killed 14 people including reportedly 7 Iranian personnel.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif at an appearance in Karachi in March

ASIF HASSAN (AFP)

The United States delivered much the same message Monday, at a meeting of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in Geneva.

Christopher Ford, US Assistant Secretary for International Security and Nonproliferation, said the Islamic republic’s nuclear programme remained “dangerously close to rapid weaponization”.

Russia and China have agreed to work together to thwart any attempts to sabotage the nuclear deal with Iran, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said in Beijing on Monday, weeks before US President Donald Trump is set to decide the fate of the accord.

Calling the Iran agreement “one of the biggest achievements in international diplomacy in recent times”, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that “revising this document is unacceptable”.

Iran insists it never intended to build a nuclear weapon.

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