The ongoing war between Israel and Iran across the Middle East came out of the shadows and into the open long ago. But now, on the back of several suspected Israeli attacks inside Iran itself, the deadly contest threatens to escalate—possibly beyond the region.

Last week, several quadcopter drones smashed into a suspected Iranian nuclear research and drone facility at Parchin, killing one engineer. Mere days before, two assassins on motorbikes shot dead an Iranian military colonel in the heart of Tehran. In February, several drones hit an Iranian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) base in the west of the country at Kermanshah. Although never officially taking responsibility, various unsubtle hints by Israeli officials and media reports have left little doubt as to the provenance of these attacks.

This is all part of what the Israeli government, just under a year in power, has come to describe as its “Octopus Doctrine,” a new and risky expansion of its campaign against Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities. If in years past Israel did hit inside Iran, it was done covertly—usually through spies and cyber-attacks—and almost always targeted Iranian nuclear scientists and facilities. For almost a decade, too, Israel made no secret of its campaign of airstrikes, primarily inside Syria, against Iranian-allied militias and weapons shipments. But now, Israeli officials openly describe a “new defense strategy,” as one termed it to The Daily Beast, aimed at the “head” of the octopus in Iran, and not just its “tentacles” across the region in places like Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq.

“For many years, the Iranian regime has carried out terrorism against Israel and the region via proxies, but for some reason the head of the octopus—Iran itself—has enjoyed immunity,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said in a speech on Sunday. “The era of immunity for the Iranian regime is over.”

To be sure, Bennett first raised this imagery of the Iranian octopus several years ago, demanding a more aggressive policy. But now as prime minister, he is in a position to actualize the policy shift, which has been embraced by other key Israeli decision-makers.

“[The Iranians] have had their military equation for a long time,” the senior Israeli official said, whereby Tehran helped establish a panoply of allied militias and terror groups around Israel equipped with vast rocket and missile arsenals, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis in Yemen, or various Shiite proxies in Syria and Iraq.

According to Israeli defense officials who spoke to The Daily Beast, there is also the growing threat of Iranian UAVs that could potentially penetrate the intricate web of Israel’s air defenses. “We need to turn the tables on them, and dry out the head” of the octopus, the official added. In order to do this, the thinking goes, Iranian capabilities need to be degraded, hence the recent attacks on the Iranian UAV bases and Col. Hassan Sayyad Khodaei, the assassinated Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander believed to be responsible for planning foreign terror attacks against Israeli targets. Likely more important for Israeli strategists, Iran now needs to believe that it will pay a direct price for every attack by one of its proxies.

“If the Iranians think that they can bring terror to our doorstep and we will never bring a response to their doorstep, they’re mistaken. It doesn’t work that way,” Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said on Monday. “They’re not allowed to spread terror on our borders or inside Israel and they’ll stay immune in Iran while we continue to compete with them in secondary arenas like Syria or Lebanon.”

The dangers of this new Israeli approach are already obvious. Iranian officials blamed Israel for the killing of Khodaei in Tehran and vowed a response. “The martyrs who are murdered by the Zionists are of a much higher status. God willing, we will take revenge against the enemies,” the head of the IRGC, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, said over the weekend.

Israeli air defense systems, including the Iron Dome, have reportedly been placed on heightened alert due to the threat of rocket attacks from Lebanon and Syria. There would be a precedent for such a strike, albeit not directly at Israel: in February, after the first Iranian UAV facility was hit, Iran fired several missiles at what it said was an Israeli intelligence base in Iraqi Kurdistan used to launch the attacking drones.

More concretely, Israel’s National Security Council “sharpened” an existing travel warning on Monday for Turkey, assessing that there was a “high level of risk” and “tangible threat” against Israelis on the part of Iranian operatives inside the country. In a highly unusual move, Israeli authorities reportedly contacted 100 citizens thought to be specific targets and asked them to return home. Not to be outdone, an Iranian regime–affiliated media outlet published the names of five former Israeli military intelligence officers (and current tech executives) who are allegedly on Tehran’s hit list. “There is increasing concern in the security establishment regarding Iranian efforts to attack Israeli targets around the world,” the National Security Council added in its warning, emphasizing other countries surrounding Iran and tying it directly to the fallout from the IRGC colonel’s killing.

Over the past three decades, Iran—and Hezbollah in particular—has struck Israeli and Jewish targets in Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Asia, including a pair of devastating truck bomb attacks in Buenos Aires in the 1990s that hit the Israeli embassy and a Jewish cultural center, a suicide bombing attack against Israeli holidaymakers in Bulgaria in 2012, and an attack the same year in New Delhi that injured an Israeli diplomat.

According to Israeli officials and security analysts, all of these types of targets globally are now believed to be in Iran’s crosshairs. “They are constantly looking for opportunities, things they perceive to be softer targets,” one senior Israeli official told The Daily Beast. And yet, the official wanted to emphasize, this wasn’t new, even with the more forceful Israeli strategy of recent months. “[Iran] has a long list of perceived grievances, and there’s always the threat of terror and other attacks from them,” the official added.

This is in line with the general Israeli government view of the risk of repeated attacks on Iran itself, and possible Iranian reprisals, spinning out into something bigger. As one senior Israeli defense official posited to me (counterintuitively) last year: “When was the last time there was a major war in the Middle East?” Belying the region’s battle-scarred reputation, the official highlighted the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, which “began as a miscalculation, but other than that, it was the U.S. who initiated two wars in Iraq,” he said. “There are lots of ways to avoid war.”

Israeli leaders have repeatedly said they will not be constrained by, or beholden to, any renewed nuclear deal between Iran and the U.S., the prospects of which appear highly uncertain at the moment. In other words, the “Octopus Doctrine” will continue regardless, possibly in conjunction with a steadily expanding Iranian nuclear program. Israeli confidence regarding the high bar to a major war breaking out in the Middle East will be put to the test.

Neri Zilber is a journalist based in Tel Aviv and an adjunct fellow with The Washington Institute. This article was originally published on the Daily Beast website.

Source: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/could-be-next-big-war-grips-entire-world

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Nuclear talks between Iran and world powers formally resumed in Vienna on Thursday and ended within an hour, though Russia’s envoy to the talks said the meeting was productive.

“The meeting of the Joint Commission is over. It was rather short and constructive. The participants observed a number of important commonalities in their positions, including with regard to the need to finalize the Vienna Talks on restoration of JCPOA successfully and swiftly,” wrote Russian envoy Mikhail Ulyanov on Twitter.

Iran’s top negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, meanwhile, said he was sticking to the positions Tehran set out when nuclear talks broke off last week. European Union and Russian envoys called for more urgency as world powers resumed negotiations in Vienna.

“Iran underlined that it is seriously continuing the talks based on its previous position,” the Iranian negotiator told reporters, according to the Reuters news agency.

“Iran is serious about reaching an agreement if the ground is paved (towards a deal)…The fact all sides want the talks to continue shows that all parties want to narrow the gaps,” he added.

Enrique Mora, the European Union’s coordinator for the talks, said the sides “don’t have all the time in the world”.

“What I felt this morning was from…all delegations a renewed sense of purpose in the need to work and to reach an agreement on bringing the JCPOA back to life,” Mora said.

Iran has gradually scaled back its compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal it signed with world powers in response to former US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement in May of 2018.

Indirect negotiations between the US and Iran on a return to the nuclear deal resumed in Vienna last week, after a six-month hiatus following the election in June of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken last Friday criticized Iran and said it is not serious about reviving the 2015 nuclear deal.

“What we’ve seen in the last couple of days is that Iran, right now, does not seem to be serious about doing what’s necessary to return to compliance, which is why we ended this round of talks in Vienna,” Blinken said during the Reuters Next conference, after the latest round of indirect talks adjourned.

He warned that the United States would not let Iran drag out the process while continuing to advance its nuclear program and stressed that Washington will pursue other options if diplomacy fails.

Iran has repeatedly demanded that the US lift sanctions imposed on Iran and also reassure Iran it will not abandon the deal again as a precondition for its returning to compliance with the deal.

US officials have said that while they prefer the diplomatic route to reach an agreement with Iran, there are other options on the table should that fail.

Source: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/318390

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Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh  (photo credit: Maryam Kamyab/Mehr News Agency)

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Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif

Israeli leaders have vowed not to let Iran get a nuclear weapon after it said it was enriching uranium to 20 percent purity at Natanz and the secretive Fordow underground facility.

Tensions were mounting as a US aircraft carrier reversed its decision to leave the Gulf after Iran told the international nuclear watchdog of its scaled-up operation on Monday. It is installing 1,000 new centrifuges to speed up the process.

Enriching uranium to 20 percent – enough to make reactor fuel – is prohibited under the nuclear deal negotiated in 2015, from which Donald Trump withdrew the US in 2018. Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90 percent.

However, leaders of the Islamic Republic are in combative mood following the assassination of senior Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh at the end of last year, the fifth atomic expert to be killed. Iranian leaders blame Israel.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has said the US and Israel are plotting to instigate a “casus belli” – cause of war – in Trump’s final days as commander-in-chief. Trump is thought more likely to approve an attack on Iran than US President-Elect Joe Biden, who takes office in two weeks’ time.

In recent days, Trump reversed a “de-escalation” decision from his defence secretary and ordered the homeward-bound USS Nimitz back to the Persian Gulf, with Trump’s officials citing unspecified threats from Iran.

Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran’s move to enrich uranium to 20 percent purity “cannot be explained in any way, other than a desire to continue realising its goal of developing a military nuclear programme. Israel will not allow that.”

The Fordow announcement comes a year after Iranian General Qassem Soleimani was killed by an American drone in Baghdad on 3 January 2020. Thousands of Iranians marked his death on the streets of Tehran on Sunday.

Under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was limited to 3.67 percent enrichment, but after Trump withdrew the US, reimposed sanctions, and added additional measures, Iran has said it is no longer bound by its obligations.

US President-Elect Joe Biden is believed to be considering a renewal of the nuclear deal, despite US allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia being so vehemently opposed to it. Israelis say the sanction relief helps Iran fund groups like Hezbollah.

It comes as Iranian forces seized a South Korea-flagged ship, claiming that it was polluting Iranian waters. Analysts say the real reason is South Korea’s refusal to unlock frozen oil-revenue accounts.

Source: https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/israel-will-not-allow-iran-to-get-nuclear-bomb-amid-uranium-enrichment/

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It looks as though a “nuclear war” of sorts has started in the Middle East. Iran’s centrifuge assembly plant at its main enrichment site of Natanz was destroyed last week, possibly with a bomb, according to some reports. What exactly occurred is the subject of much speculation. Iranian officials have said they know what happened but will announce it “later.”

Don’t expect the truth. The first Iranian report of the incident included a photograph that suggested just one corner of the building was damaged, and a few doors blown open. A satellite image of the facility was published Sunday indicating it was largely destroyed. The original photograph had been taken from the one angle that cast doubt on such an interpretation.

Many people believe that Israel is responsible for whatever happened, as well as a series of recent other unexplained happenings in Iran — an explosion at a Tehran clinic, a blast at a missile research facility, and a fire at a power plant. Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz commented Sunday that Israel wasn’t “necessarily” behind every mysterious incident in Iran. Intended or not, in Washington parlance, that is a non-denial denial.

Although the Natanz enrichment plant itself was an obvious target, the fact that it is buried deep under a concrete and enmeshed steel roof makes it impenetrable to most bombs other than American bunker busters, or a nuclear bomb itself. Israel’s probable fear is that Iran is restarting production of its IR-2m centrifuges.

Currently, Iran relies on IR-1 types, which for design reasons cannot enrich uranium to the level needed for an atomic bomb. Iran’s existing stockpile of the more capable IR-2m centrifuges, some of which it was allowed to retain after the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), have been poorly stored and are probably unusable.

The assumption is that Iran has restarted large-scale production of the IR-2m centrifuges — or at least it had until last week. A centrifuge can be likened to a top-loading washing-machine, except it is taller (several feet) and has a smaller diameter (perhaps a foot or less). A single centrifuge is made up of a basic spinning vertical cylinder — the rotor — plus perhaps 200 smaller bits. A top-loading washing machine makes awful noises if the laundry is badly loaded. An enrichment centrifuge rotor, spinning at 60,000 rpm, can be unbalanced by a fingerprint.

The heavily damaged centrifuge assembly plant at Natanz no longer can be used for assembly of the IR-2ms. Whether it happened because of internal sabotage or a well-aimed drone attack will emerge sooner or later. But it is doubtful that Iran has an alternative facility. Therefore, production of IR-2ms has stopped, and, from Israel’s point of view, the likelihood of Iran obtaining enough highly-enriched uranium for its first nuclear weapon has been delayed by months, perhaps even years.

The story does not end there, however. How will Iran respond to this setback? And, if Israel was involved, how will the Islamic regime cope with the probable sense of public humiliation?

According to the commentators who emerge immediately in these circumstances, if Israel took action it may have been in retaliation to an Iranian cyberattack on an Israeli desalination plant a few months ago. The danger is that Tehran will think in terms of a “nuclear” response — an attack targeting an Israeli nuclear facility such as the Dimona research reactor in southern Israel.

Phlegmatically (I am, after all, originally from Britain), I could point out that Saudi Arabia preferred to directly avoid blaming Iran for its attacks on oil installations last September, and President Trump evaded the need to respond to Iranian missile attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq after the U.S. assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in January, even though the attacks thoroughly shook up the brains of multiple U.S. personnel.

Will Tehran be as restrained in its response? We are about to find out.

Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He is the co-author of the Institute’s 2015 report, “Nuclear Iran: A Glossary.” Follow him on Twitter @shendersongulf.

Source: https://thehill.com/opinion/international/505975-will-iran-go-nuclear-over-its-latest-nuke-site-setback

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The media goes out of its way to keep us on edge most of the time, but this week has been unusual.  Last week President Trump made the decision to take out the murderous Iranian general, Suliemani with a drone strike.  You might think that killing a guy with that much blood on his hands would be viewed by most Americans and by our domestic media as a positive development.  But you’d be wrong.  The mainstream media hates Trump (and all who support him as President) so fervently that they reported it as possibly the worst mistake ever.  Iran was going to punish us in ways we never thought of.  Why Trump may have just struck the match that would result in WW III, the networks fretted.

It looks like they were wrong, again.  It also looks like Iran went out of its way to make sure they didn’t inflict death or injury on any Americans or anyone else for that matter.  Word is that they sloppily allowed their strike plans to be transmitted to third-party nations that would have tipped us off. But then some big names, including the Vice President are publicly insisting that Iran did intend to inflict death on Americans, but luckily missed.

For a period of months, preparations have been underway. A recent cover of 21^st Century WATCH showed a convoy of U. S. warships steaming toward the Persian Gulf.  American fighter-bomber aircraft have been prepositioned in the event that the situation escalates, and the mullahs had little doubt that Trump meant business.  So they’ve apparently invented a way to save face.  They fired missiles at bases in Iraq from Iran, but telegraphed the action in advance, including the time of the strikes.  As you’ve probably seen, many believe that Iran was careful not to kill any Americans, but at the same time gave their hardliners something to make them feel better after their revered (terrorist mastermind) general was terminated.  Then again, some insist otherwise.  It’s starting to look like Iran took out a Ukrainian passenger plane soon after takeoff from Tehran, probably by mistake.  It’s been reported that there were 176 people lost, with some Canadian citizens among them.  It’s a good thing there were no Americans.

Meanwhile, we’ve been assured by President Trump that Iran will never be allowed to produce nuclear weapons, at least not while he’s President.  That has been the greatest concern for more than a decade.  It was particularly relevant during the time that an agreement was signed by the previous president and his allies that gave Iran a clear path to do just that after a period of time.  The mainstream media rarely misses an opportunity to mourn Trump’s revocation of the “Iran deal.”  For all they knew, it might spell the end of the world.

The German, French, and EU officials have been exasperated about it too.  They’re still carrying on about it.  They too are scandalized that an American President seems to be doing the bidding of the United States rather than worrying about getting their diplomatic approval for his actions.  How dare he act so impulsively on behalf of the U. S. without running it by all the international bodies?

Here’s a bulletin:  It looks like Trump just may know what he’s doing, and considers all the legal ramifications before speaking or acting.  One false move in this environment would not be good.

Whatever happened to impeachment?  It was urgent, urgent, urgent that President Trump be removed from office before any more damage was done, they said.  The House of Representatives, with its liberal majority, voted to impeach him and claimed it was imperative to move with all haste.  But that was weeks ago, and so far they’ve not sent the paperwork to the Senate for trial.  Why not?  That’s a question that’s raging when Iran’s not on the front burner.  The answer is, maybe digging into how all this happened in the first place might not turn out so good for those pounding the impeachment drum.  Mrs. Pelosi surely will have to submit the House’s impeachment documents to the Senate.  We don’t know if there’s going to be a real trial in the Senate, or whether the case will be summarily dismissed.  Neither will work out well for the architects of impeachment.  Truth is, they better hope it gets dismissed.  Otherwise, the shenanigans they’ve pulled in the process may play out on national television, much to their embarrassment.

Over the years, it’s been a habit to be aware of what the mainstream networks were saying.  That’s not been easy of late.  Listening to self-important “news-people” describe how “This President has no idea how things work…”  Even the ABC network radio breaks have been insufferable.  They routinely read Trump’s mind and tell you of his evil intentions, after misinterpreting his words and actions.  Does nobody use a figure of speech?  Is our language not geared for humor, or the occasional exaggeration to be taken in jest?  No, the media insists that we lose our sense of humor and dissect everything literally.  How much fun would that be?  Here in Tyler, we got an announcement this week that the only local news and talk-radio station was dropping its ABC network affiliation.  Apparently the local station got so many angry complaints, they felt it necessary to pull the plug.

It’s very likely that the reports around impeachment, that Trump withheld Congressionally approved military aid in exchange for assurances that his political opponent would be investigated, was what drove people to call.  I too heard the newsbreaks, and couldn’t believe that ABC was making such an accusation based on the word of people who’ve been making the most ridiculous claims since Donald J. Trump arrived on the scene.   But there it was, on every news break.

Meanwhile, fires are sweeping over large segments of Australia.  If you see a map, it looks like fire is sweeping the continent.  Up to 85% of them are thought to have been instigated by human beings.  We’ll probably never know the extent of it.  The news organizations never got to the bottom of many of the devastating California fires either, likely by design.  But there is the suspicion that it may be a form of terrorism, and Australia has had its share of immigration problems from the Middle East, Northern Africa, Indonesia.

It’s worldwide news now and you can read of the heartbreaking devastation of people losing their homes and property and in some cases, lucky to be escaping with their lives.  Speculation about the loss of wildlife is off the chart. At some point, you would think that a disastrous circumstance like this would supersede the destructive ideologies of “global warming” and socialism.  But that doesn’t seem to be the case, either here or down under.  We’ve heard that the U. S. is sending help to fight the fires, but it seems untold damage has already been done.  They need rain, and there is none in the forecast.  A girl known to American viewers did a report on how they’re nursing rescued Koalas and other indigenous species, and she could barely contain her tears when talking of the breadth of the damage.  Her emotion seemed to be for more than just the animals. Let’s pray they get some rain.

Western civilization is under sustained attack nearly everywhere, and there’s no line of illogic they won’t trot out to manipulate public opinion.  The mainstream media, the major corporations all seem to want to deceive us on a regular basis in order to pry the last of us loose from our belief in God and get us to realize that we live in a modern era, devoid of God’s Laws and ignorant of His Will.  They’ll keep trying, but some of us know where we came from and will not comply.  This has been the case since long before any hint of a Trump Presidency.

Mark

Source: http://www.intercontinentalcog.org/fridayupdates.php

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Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Abbas Araqchi says the Islamic Republic will give a rapid and crushing response to any act of aggression, reiterating that Iran’s military capabilities are for defence.

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Under the plan, which has only been finalized in recent days, the United States would provide command ships and lead surveillance efforts for the military coalition. Allies would patrol waters near those U.S. command ships and escort commercial vessels with their nation’s flags.

Marine General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, articulated those details to reporters following meetings on Tuesday about it with acting U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

“We’re engaging now with a number of countries to see if we can put together a coalition that would ensure freedom of navigation both in the Straits of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab,” Dunford said.

“And so I think probably over the next couple of weeks we’ll identify which nations have the political will to support that initiative and then we’ll work directly with the militaries to identify the specific capabilities that’ll support that.”

Iran has long threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost a fifth of the world’s oil passes if it was unable to export its oil, something U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has sought as a way to pressure Tehran to renegotiate a deal on its nuclear program.

But the U.S proposal for an international coalition to safeguard shipping in the Strait, at the mouth of the Gulf, has been gaining momentum since attacks in May and June against oil tankers in Gulf waters. Last month, Iran shot down a U.S. drone near the Strait, prompting President Donald Trump to order retaliatory air strikes, only to call them off.

The deputy chief cabinet secretary of Japan, one of Washington’s key global allies, declined to comment directly when asked about Dunford’s comments.

“We are quite concerned about mounting tensions in the Mideast, and guaranteeing safe passage in the Hormuz Strait is vital to our nation’s energy security, as well as to the peace and prosperity of international society,” Kotaro Nogami told a regular news conference in Tokyo on Wednesday.

“Japan will stay in close contact with the United States and other related nations and continue to make efforts for stability and the reduction of tension in the Mideast.”

Waters off Yemen

Although U.S. officials had publicly discussed plans to safeguard the Strait, Dunford’s disclosure that the coalition would also seek to bolster security in the Bab al-Mandab off Yemen appeared to be a new element.

The United States, as well as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have long fretted over attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi fighters in the narrow Bab al-Mandab waterway, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.

Nearly 4 million barrels of oil are shipped daily through the Bab al-Mandab to Europe, the United States, and Asia plus commercial goods.

Dunford said the United States would provide “command and control” ships but said the goal would be for other countries to provide vessels to patrol waters between those command ships.

The third part of the mission would involve coalition members escorting their countries’ commercial vessels.

“The expectation is that the actual patrolling and escorts would be done by others,” he said. Dunford said the size of the campaign could be adjusted based on the number of countries that commit to it.

“This will be scalable, right? So with a small number of contributors, we can have a small mission. And we’ll expand that as the number of nations that are willing to participate identify themselves,” he said.

SEE ALSO: Eyes On Iran As Britain Seizes Oil Tanker Over Syria Sanctions

Source: https://taskandpurpose.com/the-us-is-pushing-for-a-new-military-coalition-to-safeguard-the-waters-off-of-iran-and-yemen

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