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Smoke billows from targets in Tel Abyad, Syria, during bombardment by Turkish forces. Photograph: Lefteris Pitarakis/AP

By invading northern Syria last week, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan achieved what many thought impossible – uniting all the regional countries and rival powers with a stake in the country in furious opposition to what they see as a reckless, destabilizing move.

A truculent nationalist-populist with dictatorial tendencies, Erdoğan has often cast himself as one man against the world during 16 consecutive years as Turkey’s prime minister and president. Now he really is on his own.

Fighting along the border is limited, so far, but that could quickly change. “Should hostilities intensify, a broader Turkish advance into densely populated areas could entail significant civilian casualties, displace many inhabitants and fuel local insurgency,” the International Crisis Group warned.

Even as the EU, the US, Russia, Iran, and the Arab states voice their differing objections to the invasion (Turkey terms it a “peace operation”), each is simultaneously trying to adjust to it, looking for advantage or leverage as the balance of power in Syria shifts again.

Erdoğan doubtless anticipated Europe’s hostile reaction. His response – a threat to send 3.6 million Syrian refugees westwards – was contemptuous. He knows the EU’s words are not matched by action. Nor is he fazed by calls to suspend Turkey from Nato.

Turkey’s relations with Europe were already at a low ebb because of its abysmal human rights record and thwarted EU membership bid. Now European leaders are paying a high price for past attempts to normalize Erdoğan’s authoritarianism. His latest actions prove he is no democrat, no ally and no friend.

While Europe has scant influence over what happens next, the US has plenty – but seems determined to throw it away. Despite denials, it is clear from the White House statement issued on 6 October that Donald Trump rashly agreed to Erdoğan’s invasion, without consulting his allies, and facilitated it by withdrawing ground forces.

It was a disastrous decision the US is belatedly scrambling to correct. Betraying the Kurds, comrades-in-arms in the fight against Isis, was bad enough. Appearing to abandon Syria to Russia and Iran, America’s rivals and the main backers of Bashar al-Assad’s criminal Damascus regime, was a big strategic own goal, capping eight years of post-Arab spring US policy failures.

It might be thought the Russians would be happy. After all, pushing the US out of Syria (and the wider Middle East) is their long-held aim. Yet Moscow’s reaction to the invasion has been largely negative, as was the case after Turkey intervened in Syria’s Idlib province last year.

When Vladimir Putin sent forces to Syria in 2015, he put his money on Assad to win, but victory has proved elusive, while costs – political and financial – have mounted. Erdoğan’s move further complicates matters by obstructing the peace settlement Russia, Iran (and Turkey) have been pursuing via the so-called Astana process.

That’s why Russia is urging the Kurds, now the US has abandoned them, to agree to a mutual defense pact or some kind of federal arrangement with Assad. And that’s why regime forces and pro-Iran militia are edging towards Kurdish-held areas from the south. Assad sees a chance to recapture lost territory. Erdoğan’s fatuous “safe zone” wheeze has no appeal for him.

Iran is not happy either, but for different reasons. It, too, wants to see the back of the Americans and has no love for the Kurds, a troublesome minority inside Iran. But Turkey’s move threatens Tehran’s hopes of controlling a northern territorial corridor linking it with its Shia allies in Lebanon – what Israel calls a “corridor of terror”.

After struggling to establish a pro-Tehran, Shia-dominated government in post-2003 Baghdad, Iran does not want to face another Sunni uprising across Syria and Iraq.

“The US withdrawal will kindle fears in Iran of a galvanized Sunni insurgency through a renascent Islamic State (Isis),” wrote regional analyst Bilal Baloch.

Worries about an Isis revival, considered more likely thanks to Turkey’s move, are common to all the regional players. Strangely, in this respect at least, the US, Iran and Saudi Arabia, on the brink of war a few weeks ago, now find themselves on the same side.

Arab governments including Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Lebanon, and the UAE, as well as the Saudis, have all condemned Turkey. After initially backing Syria’s rebels, several have pursued a cautious rapprochement with Assad in recent months, based on a shared interest in regional stability and upholding the principle of territorial sovereignty.

Arab leaders also object to Erdoğan’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and his neo-Ottoman ideas about Turkish regional dominance. Like Russia and Iran, they calculate, reluctantly but pragmatically, that the only way to end Syria’s war and contain Isis, is to back Assad. Erdoğan has now got in the way.

The crisis has produced another cautionary lesson: that American alliances cannot be trusted. The Kurds already knew this. They were betrayed in Iraq in 1991 when the US left Saddam Hussein in power at the end of the first Gulf war.

But US unreliability is new for the Saudi regime which, like Israel, ultimately depends on Washington for its security. The more the Saudis realize they cannot count on America, the more likely they are to mend fences with Iran. By some accounts, this is already happening.

How ironic if Trump’s Syrian cop-out – providing a reality check about the limits of American power – led indirectly to peace in the Gulf, an end to the Iran-Saudi proxy war in Yemen, and spiked the guns of US and Israeli hawks who have pushed so hard for war with Tehran.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2019/oct/12/turkey-invasion-syria-trump-withdrawal-gulf-rivals-unite

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Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to send “millions” of Syrian refugees to Europe in response to criticism of his military offensive into Kurdish-controlled northern Syria.

Speaking to his party, Mr. Erdogan said Turkish forces had killed 109 “militants” since the operation began on Wednesday, and warned he would “open the doors” to spark a new refugee crisis in Europe if the EU called it an “invasion.”

“Hey EU, wake up. I say it again: if you try to frame our operation there as an invasion, our task is simple: we will open the doors and send 3.6 million migrants to you,” he said.

He added that Islamic State prisoners held by Kurdish forces would be kept in jail or returned to home countries willing to take them.

The comments came as a Syrian human rights group said up to 100,000 civilians have been displaced by fighting since Turkey launched its offensive with shelling and airstrikes against Kurdish strong points and cities on Wednesday afternoon.

Large convoys of civilian cars were still heading south towards the cities of Hasakah and Tel Temir in a bid to flee the fighting on Thursday morning.

The Syrian Red Crescent said five civilians had been killed and 25, including six children, injured by 9 pm on Wednesday.

Turkey, which says it wants to create a “safe zone” on the Syrian side of the border, said it had seized all its designated objective for the first day and that the operation continued to go as planned.

“Our heroic commandos taking part in Operation Peace Spring are continuing to advance east of the Euphrates (river),” the Defence Ministry wrote on Twitter. “The designated targets were seized,” it said in a later statement.

Shelling near Akcakale, Sanliurfa inside Syria, taken from the Turkish side of the border on Thursday morning. CREDIT:  LEFTERIS PITARAKIS/ AP

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces said they had repulsed a Turkish attack on the city of Tel Abyad and said claims Turkey had made any advance east the Euphrates were false.

A spokesman for the National Army, a Turkish-backed Syrian rebel group, said its fighters were moving towards both cities in support of the Turkish army but denied SDF reports of heavy clashes near Tel Abyad.

Witnesses said there was shelling around Ras al Ain, also known as Sani Kani, the border town that appears to be a key Turkish objective for the campaign.

The SDF also said they have come under attack by Islamic State sleeper cells taking advantage of the Turkish offensive.

Five ISIL fighters were killed in a failed attack on security forces in the village of Tweimiyeh, near the Turkish border, on Thursday morning, the group said.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would “open the door” to Europe for millions of Syrian refugees if the EU called the Turkish operation an “invasion” CREDIT: REX

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US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper called his Russian counterpart Sergey Shoigu on Monday, as US President Donald Trump announced the US pullout from northeastern Syria. No details of the call were given by either side.

Pentagon’s outreach comes amid a firestorm of criticism in the US over Trump’s decision to withdraw, with people on both sides of the aisle depicting it as a “betrayal” of Washington’s Kurdish allies. Opponents of the withdrawal claim that it will open the door to Turkey – a NATO ally of the US – to attack the Kurds, whom the US enlisted to fight against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) in northeastern Syria.

The previous administration also sought to use the Kurds as the embryo or a US-aligned administration in Syria, controlling the country’s oil resources and facilitating plans for regime change in Damascus. Meanwhile, Russia has supported the government of President Bashar Assad as the only legitimate and internationally recognized authority.

Source: https://www.rt.com/newsline/470386-pentagon-calls-russia-syria-withdrawal/

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The Iraqi Premier is aware he is being pushed into the heart of two minefields, Iranian and American, and therefore he cannot just walk straight into these fields. He has decided to reject the first US demand because Iraq has religious, commercial and energy bonds with Iran. He is refusing to transform Iraq into a US-Iran battlefield where no winner can be expected to stay on his feet, including Iraq. He wants to force the US administration to back down and agree to provide Iraq with waivers to buy Iranian gas and keep commercial exchange flowing.

What were Abdel Mahdi’s reasons for responding to US pressure? He did not want to have the Americans on his back or turn the country upside down. Therefore, though he refused to satisfy US officials in their first request, he did take account of the latter, seeking to avoid a potential coup d’état and a possible US maneuver to allow the return of the terrorist group “Islamic State” (ISIS). The Prime Minister issued Diwani Order (decree) no. 237 “to organize Hashd al-Shaabi, where all factions close their headquarters and have the option to either join the armed forces or engage in political activity (unarmed). Any faction acting secretly or publicly bypassing these instructions is forbidden. Compliance with the ultimatum is required by the 31 of July”.

The US administration was satisfied with this move, but…

The agitated situation in the Middle East makes it difficult for Iraq to maintain a balanced position, especially since the belligerents are the US (with its military forces stationed in the country), and Iran ( a neighbor). It seems there is little room for compromise. Iran understands Baghdad’s desire to avoid Iraq becoming a war theatre, so long as the cannons can be kept inside the warehouses (because in the case of a military confrontation all limits will disappear); Iran wants to see Iraq stable and prosper: nonetheless Iran will not remain idle in the face of any US hits, and will respond vigorously.  The merger of Hashd al-Shaabi has its pros and cons: but Iran cannot turn a blind eye to this event and allow it to become a US victory.

The advantages related to the Prime Minister’s decree 237 are principally the fact that members of Hashd will enjoy equal rights and services (indemnity, social protection, and medical care), just like any other members of the armed and security forces. The negative aspects are numerous.

Firstly, it is a US request and as such represents a blatant intrusion into Iraqi domestic affairs: it is the imposition of the US administration’s policy on a sovereign country. However, the enemies of the US are not necessarily the enemies of Iraq.

There is a reason to believe that Hashd is being targeted precisely because of its essential contributions to Iraqi and regional security, made possible in part because many groups in Hashd are in harmony with Iran.

Many US and western analysts take it upon themselves to regularly and harshly criticize Hashd, ignoring the fact that it was Hashd that saved Iraq (and the rest of the Middle East)  from ISIS when all other “security” forces were on the run. The US objective in imposing this reform was to cripple all Iranian friends and allies in Iraq and divide Mesopotamia into Kurdistan, Shiistan, and Sunnistan.

Hashd fought against ISIS effectively, and some groups supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and were partially responsible for the failure of the US-sponsored regime-change war in Syria.
Hashd members have firm ideological commitments (the Christian Babylon Hashd, the Sunni Hashd al-Ashaaer, and Shia Hashd al-Shaabi) and thus stand as a firewall between the government of Baghdad and the US lobby which influences many Iraqi politicians.
Finally, Hashd can stop any attempt at a coup d’état against Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi or any other Prime Minister ruling the country, if carried out by a military wing within the Iraqi Army.

Iraq never forgets how the US stood idle when ISIS occupied 40 percent of the country (all of Anbar, Nineveh, Salahuddin and parts of Diyala and Baghdad) and the US administration watched from afar, refusing to deliver weapons that had already been paid for and scheduled. Kurdistan Leader Masoud Barzani, who welcomed the ISIS occupation of Mosul, was the first to praise Iran’s intervention to arm Kurdistan (and Baghdad) when ISIS turned its guns against Kirkuk and Erbil.

In 2014, the Obama administration saw ISIS was stopped at the gates of Baghdad when the Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Sistani called for the creation of a “Popular Gathering”, the translation of “Hashd al-Shaabi” from the Arabic language.

I witnessed how at this time Baghdad, Najaf and Karbala became empty with the population panicking, particularly when daily rumors of ISIS breaking into Baghdad were constant, demoralizing both the security forces and the population at large.

ISIS supporters in the Anbar tribes cruelly killed all Iraqi opponents while on a disorganized run from Mosul and other parts of Nineveh and Salahuddin provinces: over 1700 Shia cadets were slaughtered, and Sunni security forces were executed with a bullet in the head. Its vicious blood-thirsty reputation preceded its advance towards Iraqi cities, creating amplified fear and terror among Iraqis.

ISIS reached Abu Ghraib indeed and was shelling Baghdad airport from a close distance. Baghdad was almost empty, and ISIS could have occupied it in no time. Hashd, roughly armed, protected Baghdad.

I also witnessed how Saraya al-Salam (the Moqtada al-Sadr militia) took upon itself the protection of Samara along with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Lebanese Hezbollah. This was the moment when the US finally made the first move to have its share of the cake and started to train Army Counter Terrorism units and to provide the weapons already paid for by Iraq.

Inevitably, when embedded within a foreign army, US officers can quickly identify elements or officers willing to collaborate. The memory lingers of the Lebanese Colonel head of the Special Forces school Mansour Diab, who, during his training course in the US, was turned into an agent and then delivered to Israel as his handler–as he confessed when arrested. This is how the US wove its spider’s web within the Iraqi military institution- to the point that Bret McGurk wanted to promote an Iraqi officer to lead the government when Iran imposed Adel Abdel Mahdi. McGurk identified a Shia group that might promote this Iraqi officer but failed in his attempt. Therefore, it is not surprising to witness division within the Army since the Shia took power from the Sunni President Saddam Hussein.

However, the events of the last few days were not something that Iran could allow to pass without reacting. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo requested that Iraq dilute Hashd al-Shaabi within the security forces and that the Army eliminate its identity and existence. This move pushed Iran to declare a “silent war” on the US. It is an intelligence war, directly linked to the overwhelming tension between the two countries, and triggered by Trump’s unilateral decision to revoke the nuclear deal.

Iran decided to release one of its protected secrets, the presence of a technology shared with its allies in Iraq and Lebanon: monitoring, tapping and listening to WhatsApp.

During recent repeated visits to Iraq, I noticed top leaders of the country, in the political and military echelons, using WhatsApp freely. They believed messages could be monitored, and intelligence services could identify who is calling whom without having access to voice call content. However, they were unaware that this tapping technology was available to the Israelis, to the Americans and all European countries. Many Arab states prevent the use of WhatsApp in their countries for lack of access to all its features. All my attempts to convince them that their beliefs about tapping capabilities were incorrect failed.

The US seems unaware that Iran’s allies in Iraq have acquired this capability (similar to that of Hezbollah in Lebanon). Those Iraqi-US dual nationals who work with the US intelligence service in Iraq provided false security information to local agents who believed their communication system was protected.

This is how one of the leading US agents, Brigadier General Mahmoud al-Fallahi, commander of Anbar Army and responsible for the borders with Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, was caught while passing on sensitive and compromising information to the CIA in Iraq. Al-Fallahi has the names of many Iraqi officers who are willing to collaborate to overthrow the Iraqi government and eliminate Hashd al-Shaabi, the main obstacle to US plans in Iraq, according to sources within the Iraqi government.

The high-ranking Iraqi officer al-Fallahi delivered to the CIA agent all coordinates of the location of Hizballah-Iraq at al-Qaem, on the borders with Syria, the locations and armament of “Kataeb Imam Ali”, the logistics, command and control positions, the weapons, food and gasoline supplies and the names of commanders of Nujabaa, Kataeb Sayyed al-Shuhada’ and Hezbollah-Iraq.

Last year, Israeli jets bombed Hashd al-Shaabi on the borders with Syria causing dozens of fatalities. Sources within the intelligence community believe the reason for hitting Hashd on the borders with Syria could be to help divert attention away from the movement of groups or troops in the area during the bombing.

The US officials who asked Abdel Mahdi to get-rid of Hashd forwarded “proof” that the drone which was responsible for targeting the Aramco pipeline in Saudi Arabia last month departed from Iraq, not Yemen as the Houthis claimed. This is how Pompeo forwarded his case to put pressure on the Iraqi Prime Minister.

However, the Iraqi Prime Minister disregarded the role of the Peshmerga in Kurdistan. The Kurdish Army receives instructions from Kurdistan province, not from the Iraqi political leadership in Baghdad. The Peshmerga attacked and killed members of the Iraqi Army while refusing to deliver Kirkuk and their positions on the borders with Turkey in order to protect hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil smuggled into Turkey daily. Baghdad pays the salary of the Peshmerga whose loyalty is far from being exclusive to Adel Abdel Mahdi. Moreover, the Peshmerga and Kurdistan enjoy the full support of US forces, unlike Hashd al-Shaabi. However, Abadi significantly failed to include the Peshmerga in his 237 Decree.

The Iraqi Prime Minister is forcing the wrong door by supposing he can dilute Hashd al-Shaabi. Abdel Mahdi does not have enough political support from the political parties to implement this US wish. Moreover, the Iraqi Prime Minister lacks the fortitude to start a domestic fight or trigger a storm, or even a partition within the security institutions.

However, he is showing weakness, faced by a US administration that is itself used to acting without caring about the consequences and which certainly does not mind seeing Iraq heading towards a dark tunnel. The US military presence in Iraq no longer holds the power it used to in 2003. Today Iraq is much stronger and organized, and can turn the US forces’ presence into a “hell on earth” situation.

The ex-prime Minister Haidar Abadi gave unlimited concessions to the US military in Iraq, providing them with legal authority that crippled Iraqi sovereignty and limited Iraqi capabilities. Abadi allowed trainers from the US (and other Europeans and partners) widespread influence within the Iraqi military and security institutions.

However, Iraq is not willing to be under US control and is therefore ready to fight back against US influence as necessary. Sources within the Iraqi leadership said “the US is untrustworthy. Iran executed hundreds of high-ranking officers when the revolution took over because the British and the Americans had infiltrated the Army. Hashd, by exposing a major US asset within the Iraqi Army (Mahmoud al-Fallahi) is hitting the US lobby within the Army. There are many more US agents, and we have robust proof of their destructive role against their nationals”.

“The US administration is considered the enemy of the people for many in the Middle East, including the Iraqi people. Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi must clean up the Army and the security forces. The list of traitors is long and will come to full daylight in due course”, said the source.

It is a battle of brains and intelligence. A battle the US believed it was winning by hitting Iran in Iraq apparently above the belt. The US was unaware that Iran is ready and is already hitting back below the belt. This kind of war is a silent one- and the next episode is still to come!

Source: http://www.theleadersnews.com/iran-declares-war-on-the-uss-covert-influence-in-iraq/

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The Trump administration is intent on pressuring Iran. President Trump announced last year that the United States would be exiting the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and he gave a long list of reasons why. This included Iran’s meddling in the region, its continued ballistic missile testing, its support of terrorist groups and activities and its compete disregard for human rights.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also provided Iran with a long list. This time it was a long list of conditions that the regime had to adhere to before the United States would even consider negotiating with Iran.

Pompeo is now leading the calls for Iraq to take action regarding Iran. He will be visiting Kuwait and Lebanon to speak to officials about how Iran can be contained.

The U.S. Secretary of State would like to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation. However, this is a risky move because the IRGC is Iran’s military organisation and the U.S. has never designated any government’s military before. Furthermore, there is a risk that other governments could take the same action back.

Aside from this move that may or may not materialize, it also seems that the United States will look to designate other groups or at least impose travel restrictions and economic sanctions. Pompeo said earlier this week that this is an avenue he will explore with the officials he meets in his upcoming visits.

These groups will include militias in Iraq that were trained by Iran’s IRGC but operate with the approval of the Iraqi government. Some are part of the umbrella organisation, the Popular Mobilization Forces, that is composed of dozens of paramilitary groups that have participated in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS). Many receive funding from the Iraqi government.

Pompeo has already called on the leaders of Iraq to stop purchasing Iranian natural gas. Leaders in Iraq, however, have made it clear that they are opposed to the U.S. sanctions that were put in place after the United States exited the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Tensions between the U.S. and Iraq have worsened over the past few months, but the United States has made it very clear that it wants Iran to be expelled from Iraq before the situation in the Middle East takes a turn for the worse.

The U.S. has kept 400 American troops in Syria following the backlash when Trump announced in December that all troops would be withdrawn. However, those that remain in Iraq are faced with the country’s reluctance to let the U.S. troops move around or operate.

Whatever will happen, it is imperative that the United States continues to crack down on the Iranian regime. Its belligerence is a major obstruction to peace and security in the Middle East and its terrorist attacks are escalating further afield, particularly in Europe.

Last year alone, a number of terrorist attacks were foiled by European intelligence agencies. One of the plots was against the Free Iran gathering that took place in June in Paris. Had it not been foiled, it could have been a major attack resulting in a large number of casualties and deaths.

This escalation shows that the Iranian regime is getting desperate as it is prepared to perpetrate bold attacks in Europe. However, the EU’s response to these attempts has been largely inadequate. Like the U.S., the EU needs to make it very clear that the regime will be held accountable.

Source: https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/blog/25977-u-s-continues-to-pressure-iran-regime

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The Islamic State (ISIS) still maintains large financial assets and a steady revenue stream even after losing 98 percent of its territory in Syria and Iraq, according to a report from Foreign Policy magazine published Wednesday.

As noted in a report by Colin Clarke, the terrorist organization has lost 98 percent of its territory across the Middle East and is still under siege in its large remaining strongholds in Iraq and Syria.

However, the organization could well make a comeback due to its considerable war chest, having allegedly smuggled $400 million out of Iraq and Syria that its leadership now intends to launder through front companies in Turkey and other parts of the Middle East.

These numbers are significantly less than the wealth the Islamic State is estimated to have controlled in 2015: about $6 billion. Much of this wealth was acquired by seizing control of oil and gas refineries and carrying out mass lootings in cities such as Mosul, where they stole millions in assets from civilians and local businesses.

Despite their recent losses, ISIS reportedly continues to ruthlessly pursue new income streams. According to a report by the United Nations Security Council in July, the caliphate has regained control of oil fields in Syria and is extracting oil for use by its militants, as well as to sell to civilians at considerable tidy profits.

Last October, a study by the International Center for the Study of Radicalization (ICSR) found that the group’s annual revenue has fallen by 90 percent in the previous two years after U.S.-led coalition forces waged a campaign back in 2015 to deplete organization’s oil revenues, known as Operation Tidal Wave II.

However, Foreign Policy points out that the group’s spending has also dramatically decreased due to the fact they no longer have the responsibilities of a pseudo-government in territories such as Mosul, where they had to pay for public services such as healthcare, education, public sector salaries, and maintenance.

Due to their ongoing conflicts, both Syria and Iraq lack the necessary police forces to investigate widespread criminality, making it easier for groups such as the Islamic State to make and spend their income without deterrence. The group also has collected a large database of information relating to some of the region’s wealthiest individuals, meaning it will be easier for them to kidnap and extort civilians in exchange for considerable ransoms.

As such, the group now should have more than sufficient resources to survive as a clandestine terrorist network, where they can regroup and regrow after years of brutal warfare.

Follow Ben Kew on Facebook, Twitter

Source: https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2018/10/11/report-isis-continues-to-make-vast-sums-of-money/

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