The conflict in Syria has seen the convergence of multiple, sometimes opposing forces in the skies over a near-decade-long civil war that today threatens to draw the United States’ foreign policy resources back into the quagmire, one in which its closest ally, Israel, and a leading rival, Russia, are among those operating in dangerous proximity.

The sudden roar of jets and missile blasts have become an all too common feature of Syria’s ongoing war, and last week’s attacks across the country’s southwest served as an explosive reminder of the war’s lingering violence. The airstrikes, which were unclaimed but widely blamed on Israel, targeted positions near the Golan Heights and Damascus International Airport, where Israel has accused Iran-linked elements of storing and transporting weapons.

While the attacks were intended to cause harm on the ground, one senior U.S. intelligence official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, raised concerns about the sheer volume of air traffic caused by Israel’s semi-secret bombing campaign while the Russian and Syrian air forces carry out their own missions.

The official told Newsweek that, at the time, “the U.S. observed a significant increase in military air activity over Syria, including forces from Israel and Russia in addition to Syrian aircraft.”

The increased traffic made a mishap more likely, the official said.

“The airspace was saturated above daily norms,” the official said, “presenting an elevated opportunity of miscalculation or perhaps the misidentification of targets by all entities.”

The U.S. operates in Syria today as part of a multinational coalition tasked with the defeat of the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) in the country’s northeast. Russia and Syria also target ISIS in other parts of the country, along with other insurgent forces, some backed by Turkey. Iran supports this latter campaign on the ground, but its partnered militias are viewed as a threat and targeted by Israel.

The complex lines of control are blurred and have led to reports of up to 170 reported aviation and unmanned aerial vehicle incidents involving at least seven nations as well as non-state actors. On the ground in Syria, some worry a misunderstanding could always be mere moments away.

“About the crowded airspace over Syria, it’s always been a concern, notably after the U.S. stepped in Syria,” a Syrian source who asked to remain anonymous told Newsweek.

With so many countries operating in Syrian airspace, the chances of something going wrong are high, this source said.

And then add missiles to the mix.

“Now where Russia and the U.S. and Turkey and France, not to mention Israel, are all operating over/near Syria accidents are always possible,” the source added, “especially when the case involves air defense missiles. Once the missile is launched, there’s no turning back.”

A Russian Sukhoi Su-27 plane flies over Binnish during pro-government forces airstrikes on rebel-held areas surrounding the government-controlled town of Saraqeb, in the northwestern Idlib province on March 4, 2020. Russian and Syrian warplanes occasionally share the skies with Israeli forces targeting suspected Iran-linked positions and Syrian air defense sites. MUHAMMAD HAJ KADOUR/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

There have already been a number of lethal, high-profile miscalculations, such as Syria’s accidental downing of a Russian spy plane during an Israeli raid in 2018. Others, such as the U.S. shoot-down of a Syrian jet allegedly flying over territory held by the Pentagon-backed Syrian Democratic Forces the year prior, were deliberate escalations.

The Israeli and Syrian armed forces have also shot down one another’s warplanes. As yet, there have been no clashes between Israeli and Russian aircraft. But with an increased number of forays into Syria by Israel, such an incident cannot be ruled out.

To prevent this, the two countries have a coordination mechanism on Syria, the details of which are difficult to discern, especially given Moscow’s close ties to Damascus and strategic partnership with Tehran. At the same time, Russia has expressed its criticism of Israeli operations in the country.

“It is hard to deny that such actions further destabilize the complicated regional situation,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told reporters amid an intensification of Israeli strikes in December.

Israel rarely discusses the specifics of its Syria operations, but an Israeli military official told Newsweek that the country’s communications with Russia have mitigated the risk to both sides.

“We do indeed have a deconfliction mechanism with the Russian military which facilitates our freedom of action while minimizing the risk of friction with Russian troops, and promotes mutual safety,” the Israeli military official said. “So far, it has been very effective and withstood challenging circumstances in a very dense battlespace.”

Newsweek also spoke last month with an Israeli security official who discussed the challenges of target selection in Syria given the ambiguity surrounding the conflict there, where local troops, Iranian personnel, fighters of the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite Muslim Hezbollah movement, and sometimes Russian forces are operating.

“[The Syrian army] gives [Hezbollah] a lot of space to do what they want, and it makes life a bit uncomfortable,” the Israeli security official said at the time. “It’s a big problem for us to actually decide who to strike and what to do.”

Syria’s permanent mission to the United Nations has condemned what it called “acts of aggression perpetrated by Israel” in past statements sent to Newsweek.

On the ground, a second Syrian source who requested anonymity described the layout of this stretch of Syria’s air activity, where not only military-to-military incidents but those involving military and civilian airlines are “a very common thing.”

The Syrian government’s aerial operations over its own country are limited. Restricted areas include the autonomous northeast, a U.S.-controlled southeast desert pocket, and a northern border stretch occupied by rebels, jihadis and Turkish troops, the second source said.

Syrian jets also operate along the southern and western borders, as well as off the Mediterranean coast, but this source noted any activity too close to Lebanese or Israeli borders would be met with an Israeli military response.

The second source said the Russians don’t share these limitations—or any, for that matter.

“There are some restrictions beyond our waters, there are some restrictions over Lebanon, over the south,” the second source explained. “While for Russia there are no restrictions at all. They are more free than us.”

This freedom extends to and beyond Syria’s exclusive economic zone as well, where “U.S. spy planes are also flying,” this source said.

An Israeli airstrike strikes “military targets belonging to the Iranian Quds Force & Syrian Armed Forces in Syria” on November 18, 2020, according to the IDF. Israel has accused Syria of allowing Iran and its regional partners to transport advanced weapons and set up forward operating bases in the country. ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCES

The U.S. and Russia have their own deconfliction channels, both for air and ground operations in Syria’s northeast, where tensions between the two countries and their respective allies have mounted in recent months. The two countries have largely pursued their campaigns separately, but have had occasional dust-ups, some of which have been violent.

For other parties, however, there is little to no communication at all, greatly increasing the risk to both armed forces and civilians.

“Unlike the case between Russia and the U.S. where a direct line of communication between the two is existing and minor incidents can be easily stopped before escalation,” the first Syrian source told Newsweek, “the aerial clashes between the two adversaries, i.e. Syria and Israel, have always placed the regional civilian flights in danger.”

“Israeli jets flying in a civilian corridor or near a civilian plane and Syrian missiles seeking after a big radar pulse after missing their locked targets or crashing into a house, you name it,” the first source said. “Errors are possible and will always be costly.”

While Moscow’s mission in Syria to save President Bashar al-Assad‘s government from a nationwide insurrection has been clear from the start, Washington’s goals have shifted over the course of administrations. Former President Barack Obama initially sought to topple Assad by supporting insurgents but switched to an anti-ISIS mission later carried out by former President Donald Trump, who expressed a desire to withdraw but kept up to 900 troops behind to guard oil and gas sites.

President Joe Biden, who served as Obama’s vice president, has offered no indication of ending U.S. presence in Syria, despite Damascus’ calls for withdrawal. The new U.S. leadership has also not signaled a willingness to become further involved in the conflict.

In a statement sent to Newsweek, a State Department spokesperson detailed three aims of President Joe Biden’s administration in Syria.

First, “The United States is committed to a political settlement in line with UNSCR 2254 to end the conflict in Syria, in close consultation with our allies, partners, and the U.N.,” the spokesperson said.

Second, “We will use the tools at our disposal, including economic pressure, to push for meaningful reform and accountability for the Assad regime,” according to the statement.

Third, “The United States and the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS continue to work with our increasingly capable local partners to maintain constant pressure on ISIS remnants in Syria to ensure ISIS’s lasting defeat,” as relayed to Newsweek by the State Department spokesperson.

But U.S. officials have routinely declined to discuss the role in Syria played by Israel, a country the Biden administration has reaffirmed a longstanding pact to defend. Israel went entirely unmentioned in the Pentagon‘s latest quarterly report to Congress detailing U.S. military missions in Iraq and Syria, despite including references to the other major actors, including Iran, Russia, and Turkey.

Reached for comment by Newsweek, the U.S. Central Command declined to discuss the specifics of air operations over the stretch of the country frequented by Russian and Israeli jets.

“I am going to decline to comment on the air space over Western Syria,” a Pentagon spokesperson said.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views and editorial stance of the SOHR.

Source: An Unintended Syria Air Clash Could Pull Biden Into Conflict Involving Russia, Israel

Source: https://www.syriahr.com/en/204739/

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The U.S. has struck Syrian government targets in defiance of Russian warnings and killed Russian volunteer fighters, but the seven-year conflict has yet to see any direct confrontations between the U.S. and Russia. In an exclusive interview aired Thursday by Russia’s state-owned RT news channel, Assad credited Russia with defusing what could have been a clash between the world’s leading military powers as the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) was defeated and both local and international rivalries deepened.

“In reality, we were close to have direct conflict between the Russian forces and the American forces, and fortunately, it has been avoided, not by the wisdom of the American leadership but by the wisdom of the Russian leadership, because it is not in the interest of anyone, anyone in this world, and first of all the Syrians, to have this conflict,” Assad told RT.

“We need the Russian support, but we need at the same time to avoid the American foolishness in order to be able to stabilize our country,” he added.

U.S. Army soldiers conduct training drills and fire missions with M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) at an undisclosed location in Syria between the months of August and September 2017. Two separate offensives waged by a U.S.-led coalition and the Russia-backed Syrian military mostly defeated ISIS across eastern Syria last year.MARINE CORPS SARGEANT MATTHEW CALLAHAN/DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

The U.S. was an early supporter of efforts to overthrow Assad as he faced a 2011 uprising also backed by Sunni Muslim monarchies and Turkey. As the Syrian opposition became increasingly jihadi in nature and ISIS emerged from a post-U.S. invasion insurgency in Iraq, the U.S. formed a coalition to battle the militants as they spread across the two Arab countries in 2014. Iran, an ally of both the Iraqi and Syrian governments, helped fight the jihadis by mobilizing Shiite Muslim militias and, in 2015, Russia entered the fight in support of Assad.

Russian and Iranian support has helped the Syrian leader reclaim most major cities and provinces seized by rebels and jihadis, save for the territories now in the hands of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, a mostly Kurdish alliance that includes Arabs and ethnic minorities as well. Both factions have succeeded in nearly wiping out ISIS altogether, and Kurdish fighters have worked both alongside and against pro-Syrian government forces at times, but Assad warned Thursday he would not hesitate to use force to retake what they control if they refused to negotiate.

Related: Syria’s Assad tells Trump, “What you say is what you are” after being called “animal” by U.S. president

In response to Assad’s remarks, chief Pentagon spokeswoman Dana W. White told a press briefing Thursday that the U.S. mission “remains to defeat ISIS in Syria, our desire is not to get involved in the Syrian civil war.” Assad rejected the term “civil war” in the RT interview, describing the conflict “as mercenaries, Syrians, and foreigners being paid by the West in order to topple the government”

Marine Corps Lieutenant General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. also weighed in on the potential of a conflict between U.S.-led coalition and the Syrian military during Thursday’s briefing, saying “any interested party in Syria should understand that attacking U.S. forces or our coalition partners would be a bad policy.”

The first confirmed incident between Syrian and U.S. forces took place in Deir Ezzor in September 2016, when U.S. airstrikes killed dozens of Syrian soldiers besieged by ISIS in what the Pentagon said was an accident. As President Donald Trump came to office, he called for the U.S. to focus on battling ISIS and quit funding anti-Assad rebels. This changed in April 2017, however, when he ordered a series of cruise missile strikes on a Syrian military airport in response to allegations of a chemical attack in Idlib.

Russian soldiers are seen as they guard a checkpoint near Al-Wafideen camp in Damascus, Syria, on March 2. Russia warned that any U.S. attack that threatened the lives of its troops fighting alongside the Syrian military would face retaliation.OMAR SANADIKI/REUTERS

That summer saw a number of clashes between pro-Syrian government fighters, consisting of various militias, and the Syrian Democratic Forces. The U.S. unilaterally declared the southern border crossing of Al-Tanf to be a deconfliction zone and launched several aerial assaults on forces fighting on behalf of Assad, including the downing of a Syrian Su-22 that the Syrian Democratic Forces accused of bombing their positions. Following this June 19 incident, Russia warned it would treat U.S. aircraft flying in its designated area of operations as “targets.”

The most serious battle took place in February. Hundreds of pro-Syrian government fighters, including Russian citizens, were reportedly killed after the U.S.-led coalition claimed they launched a massive assault on Syrian Democratic Forces positions in Deir Ezzor. Russia said its nationals were not fighting on behalf of the armed forces, but Syria called for the United Nations to condemn the U.S.

Related: U.S. military will leave Syria base in deal with Russia, reports say

The U.S. struck a second time days later when it hit a Russian-built T-72 tank that reportedly approached Syrian Democratic Forces positions. Defense Secretary James Mattis said in March that a third incident was avoided through the use of a deconfliction line maintained between the U.S. and Russian militaries.

Two months later and shortly after he suggested he would soon withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, Trump again ordered military action against the Syrian government in response to an alleged toxic gas attack last month. Russia denied Assad’s culpability and some officials had even threatened to shoot down U.S. missiles along with the ships and aircraft firing them if Russians lives were put at risk.

The April 13 attack saw the U.S., France and the U.K. blast three Syrian state-run research centers suspected of developing chemical weapons. During his RT interview, Assad said that he had information suggesting Trump had planned “a comprehensive attack all over Syria,” but that Russia’s threat “pushed the West to make it on a much smaller scale.”

People pass near a portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad hanging in Damascus, Syria, on May 31. Assad warned U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, who have worked both alongside and against him at times, that he would not hesitate to use force to retake the third of the country they control.LOUAI BESHARA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Despite the occasional hostilities, the U.S. and Russia have maintained regular contact in Syria, and U.S.-led coalition spokesman Colonel Ryan Dillon said last month that the coalition even provides Russia with information on potential ISIS positions on the western side of the Euphrates River that divides the two campaigns. The U.S. has called for Assad’s other ally, Iran, to withdraw.

The U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia are opposed to Iran’s growing influence in Iraq and Syria, where Iran-backed militias have grown increasingly powerful after working alongside government troops. Israel has launched airstrikes against Iranian and pro-Iran positions in Syria and has threatened to escalate its offensive. Iran has refused even Russian calls to withdraw, and Syria has said it continues to welcome both Russian and Iranian support in the conflict, while calling for the U.S. and Turkey to withdrawimmediately.

As the resurgent Syrian military prepares for a new offensive in the south, near the Israeli and Jordanian borders, international powers have scrambled to prevent an all-out war. The U.S., Russia and Jordan are reportedly attempting to broker a deal between Iran, Israel and Syria that would see all Syrian and non-Syrian militias withdraw from the southern border region and allow for the Syrian military to regain control. Such a deal may also reportedly include the dismantling of the U.S. base at Al-Tanf, where Syria, Russia and Iran accuse the U.S. of supporting jihadi groups.

This story has been updated with remarks made by Pentagon spokeswoman Dana W. White and Joint Staff Director  Marine Corps Lieutenant General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. during a press briefing.

Source: http://www.newsweek.com/us-russia-military-came-close-fighting-each-other-syria-assad-says-951675

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Brigadier General Hossein Salami, deputy commander of the elite Revolutionary Guards, criticized Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s 12-point plan for potentially reaching a new nuclear agreement with Iran after President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 deal earlier this month. In his first major policy speech as top U.S. diplomat, Pompeo said last week that any new agreement would have to include an Iranian commitment to end support for militant groups abroad and ballistic missile development, something Iranian officials have roundly rejected.

“They think Iran should end the development of its missile (program),” Salami said at a ceremony in Tehran, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency. “Since they cannot force us, they ask us to do it, ourselves.”

“No one can destroy our missile power and if they are afraid they can go to shelters,” he added.

An Iranian military truck carries missiles past a portrait of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a parade on the occasion of the country’s annual army day on April 18, 2018 in Tehran. Iran’s production of non-nuclear missiles and support for foreign groups were not covered by the 2015 nuclear accords reached under the administration of former President Barack Obama.ATTA KENARE/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The Revolutionary Guards are widely considered to be Iran’s top fighting force, and they have been involved in regional conflicts as well. Like the U.S., Iran is involved in the government-led battle against the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) in Iraq, but Iran also supports the Syrian government against ISIS and insurgents, whereas the U.S. backs a mostly Kurdish coalition that also includes Arabs and other ethnic minorities operating mostly outside of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s control in Syria.

In both countries, Iran has backed Shiite Muslim groups considered terrorist organizations by the U.S., including the Lebanese Hezbollah movement in Syria and Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq. Iran’s successful anti-ISIS campaigns in both Iraq and Syria have expanded its regional foothold, but have also produced a violent flare in hostilities between international-backed campaigns. In past months, U.S. and Israeli forces have conducted deadly airstrikes against Iranian and pro-Iran groups in Syria.

Related: Iran Tells U.S.: We Were Invited to Iraq and Syria, What About You?

While not listed as a terrorist organization by the State Department, Yemen’s Zaidi Shiite Muslim Ansar Allah, or Houthi movement, has also been accused of receiving Iranian backing by the U.S. and its Saudi Arabian ally. The insurgents have fired missiles at Saudi Arabia as the kingdom leads a war to expel them from the Yemeni capital of Sanaa.

The U.S. has also alleged Iranian support for Sunni Muslim-designated terrorist groups such as the Palestinian Hamas, Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Iran has charged the U.S. with clandestine support of ISIS, which grew out of an Al-Qaeda-led insurgency following the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and a 2011 Syrian uprising backed by the West, Turkey and Gulf Arab states.

A graphic shows the extent of Iran’s ballistic missile program. The U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia accuse Iran of destabilizing the region, but Iran has warned it will continue developing its weapons to defend its borders.CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES MISSILE DEFENSE PROJECT

Trump’s May 8 withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement came despite pleas for the U.S. to remain by European allies and other leading powers. With U.S. nuclear-related sanctions going back into effect, Iran has expressed skepticism about staying a party to the deal, but Tehran’s diplomats have met with fellow signatories China, France, Germany, Russia and the U.K. in an attempt to salvage it.

The U.S. and Iran have been deeply mistrustful of one another since the 1979 Islamic Revolution brought the current theocratic leadership to power in Iran, ousting a pro-West absolute monarch who was reinstalled by a CIA coup in 1953. The countries have not maintained formal relations for decades and U.S. allies Israel and Saudi Arabia have pushed Trump to adopt a tougher policy against Iran.

Source: http://www.newsweek.com/iran-says-no-can-destroy-our-missile-power-not-even-us-948120

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