According to recent reports Israel’s defense establishment has noted that the Islamic Republic of Iran is trying to improve their air defense systems in areas that the Israeli military has been attacking. These reports claim that Iran is developing an array of surface-to-air missiles in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and other locations, seeking to bring down Israeli aircraft that target Iran and its proxies.

These reports come a couple of days after it was reported that Israel targeted Hezbollah-linked targets in Syria. This came after Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would not disrupt Israeli attacks upon Iranian targets in Syria. According to these reports, Israel hit yet another three more targets in Syria early Monday morning. However, it should be added that during a recent Israeli air strike on Syria, Syrian soldiers fired back utilizing an Iranian-made missile defense system.

Dr. Seth Frantzman, an expert on drone warfare recently published a book titled Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machines and Artificial Intelligence. He noted in a recent article in the Jerusalem Post that the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies have also used drones to attack the State of Israel: “In February 2018, an Iranian drone from the T-4 base near Palmyra flew into Israeli airspace. Israel shot it down. In May 2021, another Iranian drone, brought from Iraq, flew into Israeli airspace, and was downed. In August 2019, Israel struck a Hezbollah killer drone team that was operating near the Golan Heights border.”

Other reports verify that the Israeli government has noted an increased use of Iranian drones targeting Israel by Hezbollah, Hamas, and others. Iranian political theorist Dr. Reza Parchizadeh stated in an interview with Israel Today: “The reason for the Iranian regime propping up Syria’s air defenses is that it is anticipating an overwhelming Israeli invasion of Iran’s nuclear facilities soon. The regime knows that once the charade of the Vienna talks for reviving the 2015 nuclear deal is over and there is no more room to play around on the issue, it will have to get entrenched and make the final rush for the nuclear bomb. The ‘props’ in Syria are erected to shut down as many Israeli aircraft as they can before they reach their targets in Iran.”

Sirwan Mansouri, a Kurdish journalist based in the Middle East, concurred in an interview with Israel Today: “It is said that Israeli officials are ready to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in case of negotiation failure and they even set a budget for it. The talks to rejoin the JCPOA are reaching a dead end and Iran tries to waste time to shorten the needed time for making a nuclear bomb. Although the West and especially the US know this fact, they prefer to solve the problem by negotiations. But the matter for Israel is completely different.”

Israel is more willing to act to stop a nuclear Iran than the US is. Aside from this fact, Mansouri added that the Islamic Republic of Iran is ideologically committed to the destruction of Israel: “Iran never has hidden its intention to target Israel by any means. However, Iran does not have the power on the ground or in the air to defeat Israel, so they have been working on a new capability in recent decades: cyber-attacks and missile systems. Iran has increased its missile range and has acquired new radar capabilities.”

According to Mansouri, Iran has established a missile network system in areas controlled by their proxy groups in Lebanon, Syria and even Libya “to attack Israel in times of danger. Israel knows that Iran is moving to make an atomic bomb and the West knows it as well, but they are more far from Iran than Israel is, so the real threat is towards Israel. Iran also has strengthened its drones, which function as a suicide system. If there is a war, Iran can launch thousands of missiles and drones toward Israel. Although most will be destroyed by the Iron Dome, there will be intense psychological consequences for Israeli citizens.”

Mansouri claims that the West lacks the desire to wage war against Iran’s regime and that the Islamic Republic as well as Israel know this: “So, just one way remains I think and that is Israel must hit Iran’s nuclear facilities hard before it reaches the atomic bomb, so that it destroys Iran’s ability to make a nuclear weapon forever. At the same time, Israel must strengthen its defense system against Iran’s missiles and utilize modern technology such as the F-35 jets to neutralize Iran’s radar system and to use laser-based defense systems against its missiles.”

Nevertheless, Mansouri stressed that Israel does have some advantages in a possible war. He claimed that in the wake of the Abraham Accords, Israel can use the air space of its Arab allies, who are enemies of Iran ideologically, to attack Iran. According to Mansouri, it is also possible for Israel to utilize opposition groups inside Iran, who can “weaken the power of Iran’s regime to act normally and use its ultimate power.”

For example, inside of Iran, Southern Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Baloch, and Ahwaz all have grievances against the Islamic Republic of Iran and have active opposition groups, some of which seek to secede from Iran and establish their own sovereign nations, free of Persian hegemony. Two of these groups, Kurds, and Azerbaijanis, are known to be friendly towards Israel and will be eager to help fight against the mullahs’ regime.

There are also many liberal Persians who seek to have a democratic regime replace the Islamic Republic, as well as some Persian nationalists who would like the son of the former Shah to return to power. Some of them may also be eager to help Israel as well.

In conclusion, Mansouri declared: “I think if there is a war and Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and military bases using its full power the people’s dissatisfaction inside the country may lead to regime change. The Shah of Iran was a good friend of Israel in the past. Things can be like that again. Iran and Israel do not have to be enemies. If Israel liberates the Iranian people from this regime, then many Iranians will be grateful and help them.”

Source: https://www.israeltoday.co.il/read/report-israel-readying-to-attack-irans-nuclear-facilities-in-case-of-negotiation-failure/

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IDF artillery on northern border – IDF Spokesperson Unit/Flash 90

The post ‘Hezbollah attack on northern Israel is very likely’ first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Hezbollah is navigating a complicated time in Lebanon today. After Beirut’s massive explosion in August, the organization has come under scrutiny because of its illegal weapons stores across Lebanon. However, the Hezbollah also has members in parliament. In July it accused Israel of killing one of its members in Syria and vowed to respond. What was the Hezbollah member doing in Syria? He was part of the increasing presence of the group in Syria. Iran traffics weapons through Syria to Hezbollah.

This is part of the reality that Israel faces daily on its northern border. Hezbollah, armed and backed by Iran, has more than 100,000 rockets and has been increasing its investments in drones and precision-guided missiles. Israel has also been increasing its investments in high-tech defense systems to counter the threat, including the famed ‘iron dome’ system that shoots down rockets, drones and other threats. Investment in defensive systems is only part of how Israel is preparing for the possibility of a future conflict. It is also readying infantry and armored units to confront enemy threats.

The seventh armored brigade is one of Israel’s historic units that earned its spurs in battles with the Jordanians in the 1948 war of independence. Today it uses the advanced Merkava IV main battle tank and is outfitted with the latest information and communications technology. In some ways war hasn’t changed here; the use of tanks, machine guns and infantry uses much of the same equipment that has been in use for years. What has changed is Israel’s investment in having units working closely together, to fight throughout the night and day with air support, more drones and intelligence for the fighters on the ground.

I joined one September drill, walking with soldiers and tanks through dusty fields to secure a mock enemy position. Infantrymen sprinted behind berms and tanks fired, machine guns kicked up dirt in the distance as their bullets impacted. This is Israel’s way of war today, combining quick movement with the best intelligence to confront an enemy that hides among civilians and carpers areas with hidden bunkers.

Israel has been talking a lot more about combining units in recent years. For instance, it has rolled out a new multi-year plan called ‘momentum’ that seeks to concentrate on the most high-tech weapons like the F-35 while creating new special forces and ‘multi-dimensional’ units. Commanders speak about combining as many forces, assets and capabilities into a mission to complete it quickly. That means Israel doesn’t lack for weapons to confront an enemy but wants to choose the best munition to confront each threat. Instead of some slow rolling artillery barrage or carpet bombing, the kind that would have defined the first world war or Vietnam, it is all about chiseling down war to its most precise elements. This also separates what Israel is doing today from the experience of the US in places like Afghanistan.

To make forces more lethal on the battlefield Israel has invested in these kinds of drills to make infantry and tanks work more closely together. This was one of the lessons learned from previous conflicts in Lebanon or Gaza: slow-moving units that don’t communicate run into trouble. The last ten years have been all about reforming and learning from those experiences.

The challenge today is that the threat from Iran and groups it supports, such as Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon, is multifaceted. Israel has faced intermittent rocket fire from Gaza. Missiles fired from Lebanon last year. Increasing drone threats from Syria. In general Israel’s responses have been to try to keep these threats at a minimum while avoiding major conflict.

As Israeli relations in the region thaw, this is what’s needed when Hezbollah is storing arms all across the border and Iran continues its threats against the Jewish state.

Source: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/view-from-the-golan-heights-israel-prepares-to-take-on-hezbollah

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Israeli tanks on the Golan Heights near the Syrian border, July 27 2020Credit: Gil Eliahu

Was the incident overnight between Sunday and Monday near the border with Syria a second attempt by Hezbollah to avenge the death of one of its operatives killed in an airstrike near Damascus two weeks ago? Army officials are not saying explicitly, but there is a good chance that the answer would be yes. And this time too, the attempt failed.

Combat soldiers from the army’s Maglan commando unit, backed by aircraft, lay in wait to ambush the Hezbollah squad, whose four members apparently laid an explosive charge near the border fence and were all apparently killed.

The incident occurred in a Golan Heights salient that is east of the border fence but in an area still under Israeli control. The members of the squad crossed the so-called Alpha line Sunday evening, which is delineated with barrels and is at the edge of the buffer zone. They continued west toward the border fence. According to the military, some were armed and were shot while trying to lay explosives near the fence.

As in the event a week ago in the Har Dov border area with Lebanon, it’s apparent that army spotters had been tracking the squad’s movements before it even reached its destination. And as with the prior incident, troops were prepared for an ambush. Maglan soldiers had been on the scene for several days.

Unlike the first incident, the order was given to shoot to kill. At Har Dov, the decision had been taken at the senior political and military levels not to kill the Hezbollah operatives, but instead to cause them to flee. The consideration behind last week’s unusual policy related to the general situation in the region. It was thought that killing additional Hezbollah fighters could increase the risk of escalation, and the military decided to make do with warning shots and force them to retreat. Hezbollah then completely denied that an infiltration attempt had been made, announcing that it had yet to settle accounts.

The decision this time around to shoot to kill was apparently related to criticism over the prior decision, but also to the geographic setting. In Lebanese border incidents, Hezbollah deploys its own people. But prior experience shows that the group usually uses proxies in operations against Israel on the Syrian border. A group of several of its people, which has been dubbed the Golan File, works to deploy local squads as required for attacks in that area.

The army has hit such squads in several instances along the Golan border over the past seven years. On a few occasions, the heads of local groups acting on behalf of Hezbollah have been killed in air attacks attributed to Israel, including Samir Kuntar, who carried out a terrorist attack in Nahariya in 1978, and Jihad Mughniyeh, whose father, Imad, was considered the organization’s military chief of staff (and died in a targeted killing in 2008). The last time there was a similar incident on the Golan border was on March 2 of this year, which day of the most recent election, when the army foiled a Hezbollah attempted sniper attack against soldiers.

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Israel still isn’t explicitly accusing Hezbollah of responsibility for the incident overnight Sunday. And the possibility apparently exists, even if the prospects are slim, that it was a cell with a different ideological affiliation that carried out the most recent operation. Throughout the years of the civil war in Syria, rebel organizations operated in the area. The local ISIS offshoot controlled portions of the southern Syrian Golan until the summer of 2018, when the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad retook the entire Syrian side of the Golan Heights, with Russian assistance.

In fact, for several years the Israeli army operated a field hospital in the area where this week’s incident occurred that treated Syrian civilians from the Golan area, most of whom were Sunni residents of the villages where the rebels operated. The field hospital was closed with the return of the Assad regime.

On Monday morning, in nearly automatic fashion, Israel accused the Syrian regime of responsibility for the latest incident, by virtue of its control of the area. At this point, Israel has not clearly accused Hezbollah. It’s possible that this was deliberate, out of a desire not to corner Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah into promising additional revenge.

For the time being, it appears that Hezbollah has chalked up two failures in two attempts. What military intelligence will seek to ascertain is whether Nasrallah will make do with that or wait for another opportune time in the near future. The sites selected so far – Har Dov and the Golan Heights – reflect Nasrallah’s desire for a limited, controlled operation without a slide into a wider conflict. In any event, the army is prepared for the possibility that the tension in the north will continue in the coming weeks.

Source:

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Illustration: Thai soldiers stand guard at the Royal Thai Police headquarters in Bangkok. January 18, 2014. Credit: Reuters

Two members of Hezbollah arrested several days ago in Thailand have admitted that they were planning to launch a terror attack against Israeli tourists in Bangkok, the Bangkok Post reported on Friday morning.

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The men arrived in Bangkok on April 13, and police suspect they were planning to direct an attack on Israeli travelers during Passover.

The two suspects are Daoud Farhat, a Lebanese national who also holds French citizenship, and Youssef Ayad, a Lebanese man who is a citizen of the Philipines.

Both men were born in Lebanon, according to the information in their passports, but the documents’ authenticity has still not been affirmed by authorities.

Farhat was on his first visit to Thailand, his passport shows. Ayad, on the other hand, has visited the nation no less than 17 times in the past.

Thai police officials said they made the arrests after receiving information regarding the suspects’ activities from the Israeli intelligence agency. The two suspects were arrested in different locations, they said.

The two are suspected of belonging to a larger terror cell, thought to be comprised of at least nine Hezbollah members.

A senior officer in the Thailand police told the Bangkok Post that Ayad admitted he was planning attacks against Israelis while under investigation. Various materials that could be used to fabricate bombs were found in his Bangkok residence, the officer said, adding that further searches would be carried out in other residences thought to be used by members of the cell.

Police said that the two suspects will be expelled from Thailand upon the conclusion of the investigation. It is unclear if charges are planned to be brought against the men.

Thai authorities are searching for an additional suspect named Bilal Bahsoun, whose whereabouts are unknown. Police suspect he is may no longer be in the country.

Youssef Ayad, top photos, Daoud Farhat, bottom left, and Bilal Bahsoun, bottom right.Credit: Photos from Stop910.com

Source: https://www.haaretz.com/hezbollah-men-planned-israeli-tourist-attack-1.5245479

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The post Hezbollah Members Arrested in Thailand Admit to Planning Attack on Israeli Tourists first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

The post Hezbollah playing with fire: Netanyahu first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Hezbollah media said it suffered no casualties and that the incident was one simply born of Israeli paranoia. The Jerusalem Post reported that there were three to five fighters in the Hezbollah group. Whatever the outcome, the key issue here is why Hezbollah did this in the first place. The group’s leaders knew that there was a very significant risk that their fighters would be engaged and killed. Considering that Israeli forces are not engaged in a military campaign against Hezbollah, the group’s risk-reward calculation here would seem to skew toward not attacking.

But there are two other factors.

First, Hezbollah has been significantly undermined by recent losses inflicted on it by Israel and the United States. The death, in January, of Hezbollah’s primary Iranian interlocutor, Qassem Soleimani, was a serious setback for the group’s work with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. That work centers on establishing a missile launching capability in southern Lebanon and southern Syria to enable Hezbollah’s targeting of major Israeli population centers. Hezbollah suffered another loss last week when one of its fighters was killed while guarding such a missile stockpile in Damascus. Hezbollah again referenced this loss on Monday, warning Israel, “Our response to the martyrdom of the Mujahid brother Ali Kamel Mohsen… is definitely coming, and the Zionists only have to wait for the punishment for their crimes.”

Were Hezbollah in a stronger position, it might fear an escalation in the form of punitive Israeli strikes. Yet the group’s increasingly precarious domestic situation likely alters that assessment. Lebanon’s economy is collapsing under the weight of decades of artificial currency manipulation and sanctions that have isolated Syrian investors from the Lebanese banking system. An international bailout is desperately needed. Hezbollah, however, is refusing to agree to the necessary economic and political reforms being demanded by the European Union and the U.S. in return for any bailout. The group knows these reforms would undermine the sectarian cronyism in which its power is rooted. But with populist anger growing over its intransigence and the crisis no closer to being resolved, Hezbollah risks its erstwhile political allies forming new alliances without it. And if that happens, the group will truly be in trouble.

It’s in this context that Hezbollah might view an exchange of violence with Israel as serving its short-term interests. Lebanese civil society tends to unify around Hezbollah during the conflict with Israel. Even for those who oppose Hezbollah, populist antipathy toward Israel offers a rare opportunity for a pretense of nationalist unity. So if, for example, Hezbollah kills a few Israeli soldiers, it will hope that any ensuing Israeli retaliation only strengthens its Lebanese nationalist credibility.

Iran’s hard-line leadership is also likely to favor short-term escalation. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is deeply upset at being caught between his own collapsing economy, a coronavirus catastrophe, and restored American deterrence against his escalation. If Hezbollah can give Israel a black eye, even if Israel strikes back far harder, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards will see it as boosting their own credibility. Iran will also regard this as delivering a veiled “We’re still powerful” threat to Iraq’s new prime minister, Mustafa al Kadhimi, who is adopting an agenda to mitigate Iran’s influence.

In short, expect new Hezbollah attacks in the days ahead.

Source: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/why-the-lebanese-hezbollah-is-escalating-against-israel

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