The ongoing war between Israel and Iran across the Middle East came out of the shadows and into the open long ago. But now, on the back of several suspected Israeli attacks inside Iran itself, the deadly contest threatens to escalate—possibly beyond the region.

Last week, several quadcopter drones smashed into a suspected Iranian nuclear research and drone facility at Parchin, killing one engineer. Mere days before, two assassins on motorbikes shot dead an Iranian military colonel in the heart of Tehran. In February, several drones hit an Iranian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) base in the west of the country at Kermanshah. Although never officially taking responsibility, various unsubtle hints by Israeli officials and media reports have left little doubt as to the provenance of these attacks.

This is all part of what the Israeli government, just under a year in power, has come to describe as its “Octopus Doctrine,” a new and risky expansion of its campaign against Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities. If in years past Israel did hit inside Iran, it was done covertly—usually through spies and cyber-attacks—and almost always targeted Iranian nuclear scientists and facilities. For almost a decade, too, Israel made no secret of its campaign of airstrikes, primarily inside Syria, against Iranian-allied militias and weapons shipments. But now, Israeli officials openly describe a “new defense strategy,” as one termed it to The Daily Beast, aimed at the “head” of the octopus in Iran, and not just its “tentacles” across the region in places like Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq.

“For many years, the Iranian regime has carried out terrorism against Israel and the region via proxies, but for some reason the head of the octopus—Iran itself—has enjoyed immunity,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said in a speech on Sunday. “The era of immunity for the Iranian regime is over.”

To be sure, Bennett first raised this imagery of the Iranian octopus several years ago, demanding a more aggressive policy. But now as prime minister, he is in a position to actualize the policy shift, which has been embraced by other key Israeli decision-makers.

“[The Iranians] have had their military equation for a long time,” the senior Israeli official said, whereby Tehran helped establish a panoply of allied militias and terror groups around Israel equipped with vast rocket and missile arsenals, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis in Yemen, or various Shiite proxies in Syria and Iraq.

According to Israeli defense officials who spoke to The Daily Beast, there is also the growing threat of Iranian UAVs that could potentially penetrate the intricate web of Israel’s air defenses. “We need to turn the tables on them, and dry out the head” of the octopus, the official added. In order to do this, the thinking goes, Iranian capabilities need to be degraded, hence the recent attacks on the Iranian UAV bases and Col. Hassan Sayyad Khodaei, the assassinated Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander believed to be responsible for planning foreign terror attacks against Israeli targets. Likely more important for Israeli strategists, Iran now needs to believe that it will pay a direct price for every attack by one of its proxies.

“If the Iranians think that they can bring terror to our doorstep and we will never bring a response to their doorstep, they’re mistaken. It doesn’t work that way,” Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said on Monday. “They’re not allowed to spread terror on our borders or inside Israel and they’ll stay immune in Iran while we continue to compete with them in secondary arenas like Syria or Lebanon.”

The dangers of this new Israeli approach are already obvious. Iranian officials blamed Israel for the killing of Khodaei in Tehran and vowed a response. “The martyrs who are murdered by the Zionists are of a much higher status. God willing, we will take revenge against the enemies,” the head of the IRGC, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, said over the weekend.

Israeli air defense systems, including the Iron Dome, have reportedly been placed on heightened alert due to the threat of rocket attacks from Lebanon and Syria. There would be a precedent for such a strike, albeit not directly at Israel: in February, after the first Iranian UAV facility was hit, Iran fired several missiles at what it said was an Israeli intelligence base in Iraqi Kurdistan used to launch the attacking drones.

More concretely, Israel’s National Security Council “sharpened” an existing travel warning on Monday for Turkey, assessing that there was a “high level of risk” and “tangible threat” against Israelis on the part of Iranian operatives inside the country. In a highly unusual move, Israeli authorities reportedly contacted 100 citizens thought to be specific targets and asked them to return home. Not to be outdone, an Iranian regime–affiliated media outlet published the names of five former Israeli military intelligence officers (and current tech executives) who are allegedly on Tehran’s hit list. “There is increasing concern in the security establishment regarding Iranian efforts to attack Israeli targets around the world,” the National Security Council added in its warning, emphasizing other countries surrounding Iran and tying it directly to the fallout from the IRGC colonel’s killing.

Over the past three decades, Iran—and Hezbollah in particular—has struck Israeli and Jewish targets in Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Asia, including a pair of devastating truck bomb attacks in Buenos Aires in the 1990s that hit the Israeli embassy and a Jewish cultural center, a suicide bombing attack against Israeli holidaymakers in Bulgaria in 2012, and an attack the same year in New Delhi that injured an Israeli diplomat.

According to Israeli officials and security analysts, all of these types of targets globally are now believed to be in Iran’s crosshairs. “They are constantly looking for opportunities, things they perceive to be softer targets,” one senior Israeli official told The Daily Beast. And yet, the official wanted to emphasize, this wasn’t new, even with the more forceful Israeli strategy of recent months. “[Iran] has a long list of perceived grievances, and there’s always the threat of terror and other attacks from them,” the official added.

This is in line with the general Israeli government view of the risk of repeated attacks on Iran itself, and possible Iranian reprisals, spinning out into something bigger. As one senior Israeli defense official posited to me (counterintuitively) last year: “When was the last time there was a major war in the Middle East?” Belying the region’s battle-scarred reputation, the official highlighted the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, which “began as a miscalculation, but other than that, it was the U.S. who initiated two wars in Iraq,” he said. “There are lots of ways to avoid war.”

Israeli leaders have repeatedly said they will not be constrained by, or beholden to, any renewed nuclear deal between Iran and the U.S., the prospects of which appear highly uncertain at the moment. In other words, the “Octopus Doctrine” will continue regardless, possibly in conjunction with a steadily expanding Iranian nuclear program. Israeli confidence regarding the high bar to a major war breaking out in the Middle East will be put to the test.

Neri Zilber is a journalist based in Tel Aviv and an adjunct fellow with The Washington Institute. This article was originally published on the Daily Beast website.

Source: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/could-be-next-big-war-grips-entire-world

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(April 6, 2022 / JNS) Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said on Wednesday that if a new nuclear deal is not signed with Iran, other measures must be taken.

“If needed, we can move forward with economic pressure, intel, diplomatic pressure, power projection and regional counterterrorism efforts,” said Gantz, according to a defense ministry spokesperson.

Gantz made the remarks during a policy and security briefing for the 80 foreign ambassadors stationed in Israel, together with Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid.

Gantz also presented the diplomats with information on the rapid advance of Iran’s nuclear program.

“Since August 2021, Iran has raced forward. Iran has increased its enriched uranium stockpile to 50 kilograms at [at an enrichment level of] 60%. We are running against [the clock]. The international community must insist on a solid agreement,” he said.

Regarding the recent wave of terrorist attacks in the country, Gantz said Israel was talking all necessary measures, including preemptive operations, to prevent further attacks.

Gantz concluded his remarks by presenting confidence-building measures undertaken with the Palestinian Authority since “Operation Guardian of the Walls” last May. He also called on the international community to invest in the P.A.

Lapid presented the ambassadors with an overview of the March 27 Negev Summit, and spoke of the importance of regional cooperation in the fields of security and the economy.

In addition, Lapid provided the ambassadors with information about the humanitarian aid Israel is providing to Ukraine and reiterated Israel’s condemnation of the Russian invasion.

Both Gantz and Lapid emphasized Israel’s condemnation of the invasion and its humanitarian efforts, as well as Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s mediation efforts.

Source: https://www.jns.org/israeli-defense-minister-calls-for-plan-b-if-iran-deal-not-signed/

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(March 14, 2022 / Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) According to political sources in Jerusalem, during their meeting at the Kremlin on March 5, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the Iranian threat and the Islamic Republic’s military entrenchment in Syria. Though the details of their conversation are unknown, senior Israeli security sources say Iran is exploiting the war in Ukraine to shore up its military presence in Syria.

The Syrian army now controls almost all of southern Syria. It closely coordinates with the Iranian militias, which significantly concerns Israel.

The anticipated nuclear deal between Iran and world powers is also no longer the focus of international interest, which naturally has shifted to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The signing of the deal may also be delayed by Russia’s demand of the United States that sanctions on Russia be lifted in the context of the deal. In the absence of a new deal, Iran can keep violating the 2015 agreement by enriching uranium beyond the allowed threshold.

If the nuclear deal is not signed in the coming days, Iran will be able to race toward the bomb with no international monitoring.

Putin has a clear interest in undercutting the nuclear deal, which President Biden is keen on signing as soon as possible. Although the Iranians are expressing concern about the delay, they are also keeping an eye on the United States, which is under tremendous pressure, and rubbing their hands in glee as Putin, their ally, makes life difficult for Biden.

The Israeli military recently beefed up preparedness on the northern border after Iran announced the deaths of two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers in an alleged Israeli strike near Damascus International Airport. According to Israeli security sources, the two officers were involved in Hezbollah’s precision-guided missile project.

Residents of southern Lebanon have expressed fear that the Iranian response would be carried out by Hezbollah from there. However, Israel Defense Force sources believe the response could also come from pro-Iran militias in Syria, Iraq or Yemen, using missiles or drones.

The Israeli assessment is that the Iranian response will come, but may be delayed by the Vienna nuclear talks. With the talks reportedly on the verge of an agreement (before Russia made its demand for its own sanctions relief), Israel believes that for now, Iran will not want to risk an escalation and the loss of the new status the agreement will grant it in terms of selling oil to Western countries.

The two Iranian colonels killed in the strikes were laid to rest in a large, official funeral in Tehran attended by former IRGC commander Brig.-Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari and IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brig.-Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh. Iran threatened to take revenge against Israel, and Israeli military intelligence believes the threat is serious and will be carried out.

In 2018, seven Iranians were killed in an Israeli strike on the Tiyas military airbase (aka the T-4 airbase) east of Homs in Syria, including Col. Mehdi Dehghan Yazdeli, a commander from the IRGC Aerospace Force’s Shahid Karimi UAV base. In that case, the Iranians responded by firing dozens of rockets at Israeli targets in the Golan Heights.

While the cannons roar in Ukraine, Iran is active

As the war in Ukraine continues, the Iranians have begun a series of coordinated diplomatic and military moves with the Russian regime.

On Feb. 27, Gen. Ali Mamlouk, the head of Syria’s National Security Bureau, visited Tehran for the first time in two years, meeting with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Ali Shamkhani, secretary-general of Iran’s National Security Council. They discussed tightening security coordination and preparations for any possible repercussions for Syria from the war in Ukraine.

In the meeting with Ali Mamlouk, the Iranians also asked for quicker implementation of the Iranian-Syrian economic memorandums of understanding regarding energy, agricultural produce and the transportation sector. Alongside military activity, Iran is also deepening its economic involvement in Syria.

According to Israeli security sources, the Iranian militias in Syria have stepped up their activity in the south, in the Daraa and Suwayda regions, which worries Jordan’s King Abdullah, especially in light of increased drug smuggling from Syria to Jordan and from there to the Gulf States.

Iran has also intensified its arms smuggling to Syria and Lebanon, including drones, precision-guided missiles and aerial-defense systems. According to Syrian sources, Israel is worried that Russia will help the Syrian army intercept its aircraft. Hence, it has preferred to attack Iranian targets in Syria with surface-to-surface missiles.

On March 2, Falih al-Fayyadh, one of the heads of the umbrella organization of the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, Al-Hashd al-Shabi (the Popular Mobilization Forces), paid a visit to Damascus. There he met with Syrian President Bashar Assad and discussed the reinforcement of security on the Iraqi-Syrian border and the curtailing of the activity of the Kurds in Syria.

Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and conquest of large swaths of territory may, in the Iranians’ assessment, force Russia to transfer some of its military forces from Syria to Ukraine. As a result, Russia’s military power in Syria could decline while Iran’s military power and influence could grow.

Israel is concerned that Russia will give Syria its advanced S-300 anti-aircraft defense system. This system is already present in Syria, but Russian soldiers currently operate it. Its operation by the Syrian army’s air-defense forces could hamper the Israeli Air Force’s freedom of action in attacking Iranian targets in Syria.

A calming signal from Russia

A few days ago, the Russian embassy in Israel announced that the security coordination in Syria between the IDF and the Russian army would continue, affirming that “Our military officials discuss the practical issues of this substantively on a daily basis. This mechanism has proven to be useful and will continue to work.”

The Russian embassy posted on Facebook: “We are maintaining close contacts with our Israeli colleagues. We do not want Syrian territory to be used for actions against Israel or anyone else.”

As the war in Ukraine continues, however, things could change. In January 2022, Russian warplanes conducted a joint aerial patrol with Syrian planes along the Golan border to warn Israel about its attacks in Syria. The Russians are playing a carrot-and-stick game, and Israel does not want to find itself in a confrontation with them.

It is unclear how the Israeli attempt to mediate between Russia and Ukraine will turn out, or what will happen in Syria if Israel eventually has to side unequivocally with Ukraine and the United States. Israel cannot zigzag and “walk between the raindrops” indefinitely to maintain its freedom of action in Syria.

With Putin, there is no free lunch. At the moment, he is using Israel’s services to achieve his goals. However, ultimately what matters is interests, and in the course of the war in Ukraine, the picture could change rapidly, possibly to Israel’s detriment.

Yoni Ben Menachem, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center. He served as director general and chief editor of the Israel Broadcasting Authority.

This article was first published by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.

Source: https://www.jns.org/opinion/iran-is-using-the-war-in-ukraine-to-strengthen-its-presence-in-syria/

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