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‘No Chance’ U.S. Can Stop Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, Military Expert Says

Newsweek — Fri, 23 Jul 2021 00:17:58 +0000

© Pavel Golovkin / POOL/AFP via Getty Images Soldiers from China’s People’s Liberation Army march on Red Square during a military parade, which marks the 75th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, in Moscow on June 24, 2020.

China‘s recent live-fire drills near Taiwan were targeted at the island’s government, a military expert said this week, claiming Chinese forces would leave “no chance” for the U.S. to intervene.

Veteran Chinese commentator Du Wenlong spoke confidently about the People’s Liberation Army‘s amphibious capabilities on Tuesday amid a six-day, large-scale PLA exercise off the coast of eastern China, roughly 135 nautical miles north of democratic Taiwan.

Appearing as a panelist on Chinese state broadcaster CCTV’s prime-time program Defense Review, the analyst said the short distance meant PLA forces would be able to reach the island’s shores “within a day.”

The prolonged Chinese military drills in the East China Sea were announced by China’s maritime safety authority, which issued a no-go zone for merchant vessels lasting through July 21. The exercises—also about 120 nautical miles northeast of the disputed Senkaku Islands—would have involved the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command.

© Fred Lee/Getty Images Planes from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force fly in formation during a parade to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party on July 1, 2021, in Beijing, China. Fred Lee/Getty Images

“From a strategic point of view, this allows us to traverse that distance in a very short amount of time, then begin combat maneuvers on the island,” Du said of a hypothetical attack on Taiwan.

The live-fire drills were announced a day after a U.S. Air Force jet landed in Taipei to deliver what local media described as “diplomatic mail” for the American Institute in Taiwan, which is the de facto U.S. embassy on the island. The stopover lasted all but 34 minutes, but the nature of the delivery—involving an American military asset—irked Beijing, which accused the U.S. of trespassing in its airspace.

Du called the PLA exercises a “serious warning” about Taiwan’s continued military engagements with the U.S.

“The current drills a short distance away could be considered a routine exercise, but I think they’re specially targeted [at Taiwan],” Du added. “Taiwan is the target.”

“How much time would the U.S. really have?” Du said, in the event China decided to launch a wave of attacks to invade the island.

He added: “Before U.S. forces arrive, we will have completed all our combat tasks. They will have no chance to intervene in a Taiwan Strait conflict.”

Cross-strait tensions have risen in recent years amid a breakdown in dialogue between Taipei and Beijing, now into its fifth consecutive year. Each side blames the other for the impasse.

As U.S.-Taiwan ties reached new highs in the final year of the Trump administration, they coincided with a straining of relations between the U.S. and China. The Biden administration has been working to reestablish communications at all levels—seen as necessary to avoid misunderstandings and accidents, especially of a military nature.

Beijing, meanwhile, has offered weekly reminders of its intention to “unify” Taiwan, which it considers a Chinese province despite having never governed it. China has also warned Taiwan—increasingly confident about its security because of U.S. backing—that it will use force if necessary.

Taiwan’s female artillery brigade takes part in an anti-invasion drill on a beach in Pingtung County on May 30, 2019. Patrick Aventurier/Getty Images

Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Murasame-class destroyer JS Ikazuchi steams alongside the U.S. Navy’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier, USS Ronald Reagan, in the Philippine Sea on August 18, 2020. Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Jason Tarleton/U.S. Navy

U.S. Marines maneuver combat rubber raiding craft after conducting drills in the Coral Sea on July 19, 2021. Lance Cpl. Grace Gerlach/U.S. Marine Corps

Although the recent PLA drills were considered close at 135 nautical miles, it is not the nearest to Taiwan proper Chinese forces could come.

The choppy strait separating the two neighbors is only 70 natural miles wide at its narrowest point. Taiwan’s outlying islands of Kinmen also lie just 3 miles from the Chinese port of Xiamen in Fujian province.

While the view out of Beijing suggests the PLA is capable of a swift and unannounced attack, military analysts in the U.S. and Taiwan predict such an outcome is far from conclusive.

China watchers say any invasion of Taiwan will require extensive amphibious preparations, including intentional troop movements that will serve as timely indicators for military intelligence in Taipei—and perhaps the U.S., too.

While the possibility of U.S. intervention remains, there is also the likelihood of action by Japan, which could find itself involved in the conflict in its capacity as an American treaty ally. Earlier in July, Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso intimated that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could pose an “existential threat” to Japan’s own survival, necessitating a collective defense of the island with U.S. forces.

In addition, the U.S. has about 50,000 forward-deployed troops in Japan, mostly on Okinawa.

But despite the tense atmosphere and bellicose threats of war, analysts say there is no indication that China is preparing an imminent attack. They say Beijing is unlikely to take such a large risk before 2022, when China hosts the Winter Olympics and Chinese President Xi Jinping seeks a third term in the fall.

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Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/no-chance-us-can-stop-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-military-expert-says/ar-AAMrANu#image=AAMrANu_1|4

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Thanks to North Korea and China, Japan’s Navy Has a Reason to Grow

Peter Suciu — Tue, 23 Feb 2021 09:14:35 +0000

The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force increasingly resembles the former Imperial Japanese Navy, but in a smaller size.

Here’s What You Need to Remember: One type of warship the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force won’t operate is a battleship, and there are no plans for a 21st-century version of the Yamato super battleship.

The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force increasingly resembles the former Imperial Japanese Navy, but in a smaller size. It has a fleet of some 154 ships and operates 346 aircraft. In 2000 it has also been the world’s fourth-largest navy by tonnage, and likely will only increase in size.

In December 2018, Tokyo approved a plan to modify its two Izumo-class helicopter carriers to embark the Lockheed Martin F-35B Lightning II jet fighter. The modifications would enable Japan to operate flattops with fixed-wing aircraft for the first time since World War II. The Japanese government also announced as part of its record-setting defense budget it would purchase additional F-35 aircraft.

With an eventual plan to be equipped with 105 F-35As and 42 F-35Bs, Japan would become the largest operator of the fifth-generation stealth fighter aircraft outside of the United States.

One type of warship the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force won’t operate is a battleship, and there are no plans for a 21st-century version of the Yamato super battleship.

However, according to a recent report from TheDrive, citing Japanese media, Tokyo is now considering the feasibility of procuring two “super-destroyers.” Such warships – much like the modified flattops – would seem to be in contradiction of Japan’s 1947 Constitution, which renounced war but is also seen to suggest that Japan’s military forces are maintained for the purpose of self-defense.

In this case, however, the super-destroyers would serve as a replacement to the pair of planned land-based Aegis Ashore systems. Work on those was suspended due to technical issues, costs, and domestic criticism. The destroyers would be focused on missile defense – primarily from North Korea – and would be equipped with a version of the Aegis combat system that is equipped with Lockheed Martin’s AN/SPY-7 Long Range Discrimination Radar. That platform was originally intended for the shore-based Aegis system.

Nikkei Asia reported that the funding for the system modifications of the AN/SPY-7 will be allocated in Japan’s fiscal 2021 budget.

While the Defense Ministry has been expected to approve the vessels, based on an interim report that is due later this month from a private-sector technical study, officials have also considered the option of a special-purpose warship that could be dedicated to intercepting missiles. However, despite the fact that such a vessel would cost less, it could be far more vulnerable to submarine and air attacks.

The other consideration is that even as North Korean missiles are seen as the primary threat, Japan has other priorities that include patrolling the East China Sea due to increased Chinese aggression, and new Aegis-equipped destroyers could be a practical addition to the fleet due to their maneuverability and defenses.

One issue outstanding could be that of personnel. Tokyo opted for the Aegis Ashore system to address the lack of personnel, but now the Maritime SDF may need to be further expanded with the addition of such warships.

Yet to come into focus is whether Tokyo would opt to build a new warship or a derivative of vessels currently in the fleet. TheDrive cited a report from Tokyo’s Kyodo News agency, which suggested that the government was considering a vessel with a standard displacement of around 8,000 tons – which would be larger than the current Maya-class’s displacement of 8,200 tons.

The Maya-class is a modified version of the Atago-class, and the lead vessel Maya was commissioned on March 19, 2020, with a second vessel, Haguro, set to enter service in March of next year. These vessels were also designed to enhance Japan’s ballistic missile defense capabilities, but now it seems that Tokyo is thinking even bigger.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites. He is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com. This article first appeared last year and is being republished due to reader interest.

Image: Reuters.

Source: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/thanks-north-korea-and-china-japan%E2%80%99s-navy-has-reason-grow-178644

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Japan publishes further evidence of North Korean ship-to-ship activity

Hamish Macdonald — Tue, 27 Feb 2018 04:47:59 +0000

The Japanese government on Tuesday published further evidence of North Korean vessels engaged in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers on the high seas, a practice prohibited by UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions.

The posts on multiple government websites include photographs of the STS transfer taking place on the morning of February 24 between a North Korean ship and a vessel flying a Maldives flag.

“At midnight on February 24, 2018, a P-3C aircraft of Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (Fleet Air Wing 1 P-3C: Kanoya) found that Chon Ma San, North Korean-flagged tanker, was lying alongside Xin Yuan 18, Maldivian-flagged tanker, on the high sea (around 250 km eastern offshore of Shanghai) in the East China Sea,” a post on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) website read.

“Following a comprehensive assessment, the Government of Japan strongly suspects that they conducted ship-to-ship transfers banned by UNSCR,” it added.

The UNSCR 2375, unanimously adopted on September 11 last year, banned all such STS transfers.

Member states are required to prohibit their nationals, entities or vessels flying their flags, “from facilitating or engaging in ship-to-ship transfers to or from DPRK-flagged vessels of any goods or items that are being supplied, sold, or transferred to or from the DPRK.”

Despite the resolution, the Japanese government has released evidence of such transfers on multiple occasions in January and February, with Tuesday’s update representing the fourth notice on the subject since the beginning of the year.

The STS transfers likely involve the transfer of oil products, which are also subject to caps under UNSC resolutions.

In response to emerging evidence of such practices continuing to take place, the U.S. Department of the Treasury on Friday imposed sweeping designations against one individual, 27 entities, and 28 ships.

The Chon Man San – the North Korean oil tanker photographed by Japan in Tuesday’s post – was one of the vessels designated on February 23, as was its registered DPRK owner, Korea Achim Shipping Co.

The other ship involved – the Xin Yuan 18 – is also an oil tanker. While flying the flag of the Maldives, it is owned by a Hong Kong company called Ha Fa Trade International.

According to company documents, Director Tang Yun Hui has a registered residential address in Hubei Province, China.

“Japan notified the Security Council Committee of this incident and shared information with related countries,” Tuesday’s statement from the MOFA reported. “Japan also expressed its interest to the Xin Yuan 18-related countries.”

Five entities from Hong Kong and two from China were among the Treasury designations handed down on Friday.

According to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the sanctions imposed on Friday are intended to “significantly hinder the Kim regime’s capacity to conduct evasive maritime activities that facilitate illicit coal and fuel transports, and erode its abilities to ship goods through international waters.”

“We will do everything to stop these ship-to-ship transfers,” Mnuchin told the White House press corps during a briefing on the same day.

The U.S. Treasury also simultaneously published a ten-page advisory detailing North Korea’s maritime sanction evasion techniques, risk mitigation strategies, and ways to report suspicious DPRK vessel activity to the U.S. Coast Guard.

In the document is an image of the region off the coast of Shanghai in which STS transfers have been observed previously – consistent with Japan’s findings on Tuesday.

The document also warned of evasion techniques employed by North Korean vessels, which includes physical alterations being made to ships: including the practice of “painting over vessel names and IMO numbers with alternate ones.”

Evidence of such practices was also observed by Japan in the most recent case of a suspected STS transfer.

“Government of Japan confirmed that Chon Ma San erased its vessel name,” Tuesday’s statement by the Japanese MOFA read.

Featured Image: North Korean flagship tanker “Chon Ma San” and a Maldivian flagship tanker “Xin Yuan 18”, photographed around 22:30 on February 24 – Japan MOD

Source: https://www.nknews.org/2018/02/japan-publishes-further-evidence-of-north-korean-ship-to-ship-activity/

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