Israel’s goal is to persuade the United States to neither return to the original nuclear deal nor conclude a partial interim agreement, but instead to intensify sanctions on Iran and also present an explicit, credible military threat.

Diplomatic sources estimated that Iran’s hard line during the talks in Vienna has prepared the ground to influence Washington’s approach at the talks.

On Monday, Mossad director David Barnea will begin a round of meetings in Washington, including with CIA Director William Burns and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. On Thursday, Defense Minister Benny Gantz will arrive in Washington to meet senior American officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

Gantz’s visit was arranged several weeks ago, long before obstacles in the nuclear talks arose. Last week, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett spoke with Blinken and expressed his concern over a possible return to the deal.

The Israeli officials will urge Washington to withdraw from the upcoming nuclear pact and to draw an alternative plan to address the Iranian nuclear program.

Israel also expects that the U.S. will immediately step up both economic and military pressure on Iran so that Tehran will arrive at the next rounds of talks from a significantly weaker position.

–Israel’s reaction to Iran talks: too much bravado, too little sense

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Another demand Israel will make is to guarantee that any future deal with Iran will be conditioned upon the withdrawal of its forces from Syria and other countries in the region, to ensure Israel’s aerial superiority.

Iran’s chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, presented last week a document with sweeping demands for the removal of American sanctions as a condition for any progress in the talks. It also requested a clear commitment from the U.S. and the other signatory countries not to reimpose sanctions in the future.

Israeli officials expect the U.S. administration to refuse to make such commitments and hope Iran’s uncompromising stance will help them persuade their American counterparts.

Israel views Sullivan as a powerful player who can influence U.S. decision makers and holds relatively hard line positions on the nuclear deal.

As opposed to him, Israel considers the head of the American negotiating team in Vienna, U.S. special representative to Iran Rob Malley, as an enthusiastic supporter of America’s return to the nuclear agreement. Due to Malley’s support for the deal, Bennett decided not to meet with him when he visited Israel prior to the resumption of the talks.

Israel’s assessment is that despite the hardened stance Iran has presented at the talks, it wouldn’t be quick to blow up the negotiations because its stifling economy desperately needs at least some sanctions removed.

Following the first week of talks, Israel is having trouble predicting whether the sides will ultimately reach an agreement. Contrary to the U.S. administration’s initial expectation, the talks didn’t end last weekend, and the parties are pursuing the negotiations this week.

Israel worries that if the talks will not terminate this week, they may drag on for months unless a deadline is set. It also fears that during that time, and with no international pressure, Iran will further advance its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, Mossad’s Barnea is expected to try to convince American officials that Iran has no intention of putting an end to the development of its nuclear program. On Thursday, Barnea made an unusual public statement describing Israeli intelligence’s outlook.

“It’s clear that uranium enriched to 60 percent isn’t needed for civilian purposes, and there’s no need for three facilities with thousands of centrifuges spinning unless they intend to develop nuclear weapons,” he said in a speech at the President’s Residence.

Addressing a ministerial cabinet meeting, Bennett said Sunday that the window between rounds of nuclear talks should be exploited to push the U.S. to “use a different toolbox” with Iran, adding that “Iran must start paying the price for violations.”

President Isaac Herzog also addressed the talks today at the presentation of U.S. Ambassador to Israel Thomas Nides’ credentials, saying that “Israel will welcome a comprehensive diplomatic solution that can resolve the Iranian nuclear threat once and for all.” However, he further clarified that all options remain on the table, adding that if the international community does not take decisive action, Israel will.

Source: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-iran-talks-israel-presses-u-s-for-more-sanctions-military-threat-1.10442155

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Iran’s supreme leader has mocked the U.S. presidential election, calling the tight race a “spectacle” that has exposed the weakness of democracy.

More than 24 hours after polls closed, several battleground states continue to count ballots, leaving the outcome of the race between President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden too close to call.

Trump has made unsubstantiated claims about fraud in the vote due to ongoing counting of mail-in ballots that has seen the president’s lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and other states slowly melt. Trump’s claims about fraud have even been condemned by many fellow Republicans.

Biden has said every American’s vote will be counted and that his campaign will defend against legal challenges from the Trump campaign.

“What a spectacle!” Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tweeted on late November 4.

“One says this is the most fraudulent election in US history. Who says that? The president who is currently in office,” Khamenei said. “His rival says Trump intends to rig the election! This is how #USElections & US democracy are.”

Earlier this week, Khamenei said the outcome of the election would have no impact on Iranian policy, although Trump and Biden would have different policies toward Tehran.

Trump unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and imposed crushing sanctions as part of his administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against the Islamic republic.

Biden has suggested he may rejoin the landmark nuclear agreement struck when he served as vice president under President Barack Obama.

Analysts say relations between Washington and Tehran will not only be determined by the U.S. elections.

Iran holds a presidential election in June 2021 in which incumbent President Hassan Rohani is ineligible to run after serving two terms. Rohani put much of his political capital on the embattled nuclear deal and has come under pressure from hard-liners over its failure.

The election could bring a hard-line candidate who is against any compromises or international nuclear deal to power.

Khamenei, 81, has final say on all matters in Iran.

Iran holds tightly controlled elections among carefully vetted candidates who come largely from the established political, military, and clerical establishment.

Following Iran’s 2017 presidential election, hard-line presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi, who is close to Khamenei, claimed there was widespread voter fraud when Rohani won.

An election dispute in Iran in 2009 triggered massive protests called known as the Green Movement, which were brutally put down by security forces.

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-s-supreme-leader-mocks-u-s-election-spectacle-/30932264.html

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Germany has had a lot of nasty geopolitical surprises in recent years. But the worst by far — what strategy wonks call a black swan — wasn’t Russian aggression on Europe’s doorstep, China’s quest for global dominance or Turkey stoking conflict in the eastern Mediterranean. It was the election of Donald Trump as US president. Consequently, the nation is mesmerized by the possibility of his re-election on November 3.

Chancellor Angela Merkel, a dedicated transatlanticist, never established the kind of rapport with Mr Trump that she’d had with his predecessors George W Bush and Barack Obama. Mr Trump is the first postwar US president not to have made a state visit to Germany in his first term. But Berlin’s troubles with Washington go beyond the two leaders and extend across the political aisle. On many points of contention, there is near-bipartisan agreement.

Trade protectionists have Germany’s surpluses in their sight. Middle East hawks are upset that Berlin (locking arms with Paris and London) wants to preserve the Iran nuclear agreement. China hawks accuse Ms Merkel of being soft on Beijing. Russia hands are upset at Germany’s reluctance to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project. The defence community is deeply underwhelmed that the country spends no more than 1.5 per cent of its gross domestic product on defence.

Of course, a second term for Mr Trump would have a wholly different impact on US-German relations than would a Joe Biden presidency. It is conceivable that a victorious Mr Trump would push hard to end US wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East, and take American troops out of Europe. He might even hope to make an ally of Russia against China. It would almost certainly be the end of Nato.

Mr Biden cherishes the transatlantic alliance and appreciates the EU’s economic and regulatory heft. Yet bogged down by a multitude of domestic challenges, his administration would have to focus urgently on China’s rise. The burden of regional security — from north Africa via the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East all the way to the Caucasus, Ukraine and Belarus — will fall to Europe.

In either election outcome, the simple truth is that the onus is on Europe’s most powerful country to turn itself into the continent’s security anchor. Germany is unprepared for this, says Norbert Röttgen, chair of the Bundestag foreign affairs committee.

Still, there is a new sense of urgency in Berlin. In the summer, Germany backed a massive debt-financed recovery programme for the pandemic-stricken EU. It has supported new sanctions against senior Kremlin figures after the assassination attempt on Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. And while Ms Merkel still appears unwilling to suspend Nord Stream 2, for the first time she has refused to rule it out. The legislature is considering a law that would effectively ban the Chinese telecoms provider Huawei from Germany’s 5G network.

As for the US, German defence minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer gave a forceful speech last week in which she said Germany would have to become a “strategic giver” and play a stronger role in the security of Europe’s neighbourhood. Foreign minister Heiko Maas followed with an op-ed warning that the “profiteers of our differences sit in Beijing and Moscow, but also in Tehran and Pyongyang”. Both emphasised the need to co-operate on confronting Chinese assertiveness — but the fear of being dragged into a confrontation by the US is palpable.

Berlin’s dilemma is that it badly wants to reserve the right to agree to disagree with Washington, regardless of who is the next president. But it is a long way from being able to afford to.

Constanze Stelzenmüller

Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe

Source: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/10/26/germany-needs-to-step-up-to-europes-defense/

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 Iranians shop in a bazaar in Tehran, Iran. Photograph: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA

Iranians were bracing themselves for a period of economic hardship on Monday after sweeping US sanctions came into full force, leading Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, to describe the situation as “economic war”.

The Iranian economy has been under strain since May, when Donald Trump exited the 2015 nuclear agreement – designed to curb Iran’s nuclear programme – and announced the return of sanctions.

His first set of sanctions were reimposed in August. Those measures hit the country’s access to dollars, gold, precious metals and the car-making sector, amid growing street protests.

And on Monday Trump unilaterally reimposed further sanctions, despite opposition from the US’s European partners of the nuclear accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The new sanctions were timed to coincide with the anniversary of the 1979 US hostage crisis.

“For ordinary people, sanctions mean unemployment, sanctions mean becoming poor, sanctions mean the scarcity of medicine, the rising price of dollar,” said Akbar Shamsodini, an Iranian businessman in the oil and gas sector who lost his job six months ago as European companies started to pull out of Iran in fear of US sanctions.

“By imposing these sanctions, they want to force Iranians to rise up in revolt against their government but in practice, they will only make them flee their country,” he said, adding that ironically it would be Europe that would have to bear the burden of such a mass migration.

“We’re being squashed here … as an Iranian youth who studied here, worked here, the only thing I’m thinking about now is how to flee my country and go to Europe.”

Mahdi Attar, a postgrad student of mechatronics in University of Tehran, said most Iranians feared the impact of sanctions on the price of the dollar, which has more than tripled. One dollar buys roughly 145,000 rials this week, compared with 40,500 a year ago.

He said Iranian students now had to deal with much pricier payments for exams such as TOEFL or GRE, buying books online or simply paying for application fees when applying for universities abroad.

“Please inform Mr Trump that he has been cruel to us, the people of Iran; ask him not to pretend he’s on our side. Let the mask fall,” he said.

Trump’s sanctions, however, have been welcomed by the US allies in the region. The Israeli minister for education, Naftali Bennett, a politician from a righwing religious party, thanked Trump on Twitter for “making the ayatollahs scared again”.

Vahid Hatami, 27, who works in the banking software sector, said he earns around £100 ($130) a month – a salary that supports his parents and younger brother. “In the past six months as the situation is getting tough, if I didn’t have a job it means that my family would have been in trouble,” he said.

Iraj Kaveh, who has a company in Tehran specialized in importing wear-resistant steel plate from Belgium, said he could easily trade until March, but it is now finding it almost impossible, or with commissions of up to 11%, because of banking restrictions.

“We used to use both public and private banks or money exchanges to pay Belgium’s KBC bank, but since June all our money transfers gets rejected, citing US sanctions,” Kaveh told the Guardian. “These plates are used in our mining and cement industry and if companies use the domestic equivalent, it means they have to change them every two months, while the European version last for more than a year.”

Rouhani said the US was using the language of “pressure and threats” against the people of Iran. He said Washington was isolated in its anti-Iran stance, except for a few allies, in what appeared to be apparent references to Saudi Arabia and Israel.

He said: “The US is proud of backing a regime that kills the people of Palestine every day, putting them under bombing. They are proud of supporting a regime that is killing the people of Yemen every day.”

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/05/iran-trump-us-sanctions

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The cooperation between Russia and Iran is an attempt to work around United States sanctions on Iranian oil that are scheduled to take effect on November 4, 2018. The aforementioned sanctions were first announced by the U.S. State Department in June and are an attempt by the Trump administration to ratchet up the pressure on Iran in order to force them to renegotiate the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

The looming sanctions are powerful and direct. Not only do they bar foreign nations from importing Iranian oil shipments, they have an additional round of secondary sanctions banning companies that flout the initial sanctions from doing business with the United States. Once the sanctions hit, foreign nations will have to choose between doing business with Iran and accessing the lucrative U.S. economy.

In putting Iran’s oil exports in the crosshairs, the U.S. aims to target Iran’s main moneymaker. Iran exports 2 million barrels of crude oil a day, making it the third largest oil producer in OPEC. With its main source of income cut off, Iran’s already-tottering economy will come closer to collapsing, something which many analysts say will bring the masses into the streets and possibly topple the regime.

That’s why Russia’s reported mechanism assisting Iran is so perplexing. Russia has always said that it seeks to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. In helping Iran avoid U.S. sanctions, Russia is now mitigating one of the strongest factors that can force Iran to renegotiate what many say is a heavily flawed nuclear deal.

Russia also does not need Iranian oil for economic reasons. Russia is an energy powerhouse. With one of the largest petroleum reserves in the world, the eight largest oil reserves and as one of the world’s biggest oil producers, it makes no sense fiscally for Russia to be assisting the Islamic Republic.

Upon closer look, however, the international community shouldn’t be surprised. A look into the past shows that almost everything Iran has done in its multi-decade effort for atomic weaponry has been either directly or indirectly aided by Russia.

The first of Russia’s many contributions to the Iranian nuclear effort was its agreement to build nuclear reactors for the Islamic Republic, providing it with the most basic qualification for a nation aspiring to acquire atomic weapons. Most prominent of this effort is Russia’s role in building Iran’s first nuclear power plant in Bushehr. Construction on the twin-reactor power plant had been started by the Shah in 1974 and was contracted out to be built by the German Siemens AG and AEG-Telefunken corporations. However, both companies pulled out of the project after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when missed payments piled up and the site fell into disrepair after being pounded by Iraqi airstrikes during the Iran-Iraq war. Due to Iran’s international isolation, Germany refused to authorize the plant’s reconstruction and Russia was the only country willing to openly build a power plant for the rogue state: Russian corporation Atomstroyexport signed a contract authorizing them to resume work on the site in 1995.

The deal was plagued by both international opposition and technical breakdowns, leading to skyrocketing costs. While the agreement between Russia and Iran in 1995 was for an $800 million project, by 2002 the budget had risen to $2.7 billion. The United States was ardently opposed to Iran gaining a nuclear power plant and leaned on Russia to halt the project, which Russia agreed to do, until the United States changed its stance in 2005 following Iranian claims that all nuclear fuel would be transferred to Russia. Bushehr was finally completed in 2010 and is one of Iran’s key nuclear sites. It is allowing Iran to enrich uranium along with its other reactors at Arak and Chalus, and its enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordow.

Russia’s nuclear contributions to Iran is not limited to its building the Bushehr plant. In 2016, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will sell Iran another eight nuclear power plants, dramatically stepping up Russia’s role in the Iranian nuclear program. Should the power plants actually come to fruition, they will significantly propel the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capabilities forward and would likely become a difficulty for the international community to monitor.

While Russia has actively built nuclear infrastructure, it also turned a blind eye to the rampant leakage of nuclear material and trained personnel from within its borders to Iran. With the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, tens of thousands of trained nuclear personnel suddenly found themselves out of work. Furthermore, the fledgling Russian Federation was not adequately prepared to introduce any meaningful oversight on the country’s nuclear material, technology, and scientists. For example, as Ronen Bergman related in his book “The Point of No Return,” Israeli agents from the Mossad espionage agency found a warehouse in a disused Russian nuclear facility that was bursting with heavy water, uranium, and other sensitive material. The storage facility was protected by a single padlock and its elderly guard was constantly inebriated. While the international community pressed Russia to ensure that fully-built nuclear weapons did not end up in the wrong hands, it was unable to initiate a similar effort in regards to its technology and human capital.

The results were catastrophic to anyone concerned about nuclear proliferation. As researcher David Hoffman chronicled in his book “The Dead Hand,” Russian scientists simply hawked their know-how to the highest bidders, which were generally Iran and North Korea. Immediately following the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Iran rushed to take advantage of the loose material, idle weapons experts, and general chaos. According to Hoffman, “Iran opened a special office in Tehran’s embassy in Moscow to search for and acquire weapons technology.” Top nuclear scientists were suddenly fielding attractive offers to move to Tehran and school a new generation of Iranian nuclear scientists.

Iran invested similar resources in persuading Russian long-range missile experts to join its ranks. Long-range ballistic missiles are a vital delivery system for a nuclear weapon and ensures that a nation has the proper delivery mechanism for the bomb that can turn it into a strategic threat. Hundreds of experts took Iran up on its offer, leading Iran to have “more scientists and engineers from the former Soviet Union than they knew what to do with.” Iran also formed an educational partnership with the renowned Moscow Aviation Institute, a world-class research center centered on developing missile technology. From the mid-90s and onwards, Iran started flooding the Institute with its most promising graduates so that they would gain the knowledge which was lacking in Tehran. Additionally, according to some estimates, Russian nuclear scientists filled virtually every single senior technical post in Iran’s nuclear establishment. For example, the United Nation’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) watchdog said in a 2011 report that Vyacheslav Danilenko, a Russia nuclear expert with 50 years of experience, had built a “high explosives detonation system” for Iran and was the guiding hand behind the entire Atomic project.

Iran also did everything in its power to obtain loose fissile material. “We knew that Iran was all over Central Asia and the Caucasus with their purchasing agents,” said former U.S. Department of Defense official Jeff Star. A U.S. diplomat recalled to Hoffman how while visiting a Russian nuclear facility in 1996, he “noticed a shipment of beryllium, which is used as a neutral reflector in an atomic bomb, packed in crates. Stenciled on the side was an address: Tehran, Iran. Apparently, a paperwork glitch was the only thing that had kept the shipment from being sent.”

Russia’s response was to turn a blind eye to the entire endeavor. Despite occasional promises to crack down on the rampant nuclear proliferation, Russia did very little to stop it, hindered by its depleted economy and ineffective government as well as its geopolitical calculations that saw Iran as an effective antidote to the United States. In fact, former U.S. Department of State special advisor for nonproliferation and arms control Robert Einhorn told the Senate that Russia has “extensive cooperation” with Tehran regarding transfers of technology and scientists, which “has accelerated in the last few years.” Einhorn added that “much of this assistance involves technologies with direct application to the production of weapons-grade fissile materials…and could significantly shorten the time Iran would need to acquire weapons-usable fissile material.”

Russia’s assistance to Iran in regard to its nuclear program extended well beyond nuclear technology and ballistic missiles. One step that advanced Iran’s nuclear ambitions considerably was its decision to sell the S-300 anti-missile defense system to Iran in 2014. The Russian S-300 is widely regarded as one of the world’s most effective anti-aircraft systems. Boasting accuracy of up to 150 kilometers and an ability to detect planes and jets up to twice that distance, the S-300 can neutralize hostile aircraft, ballistic missiles, and UAVs. Because of those cited reasons, Putin froze his original plan to give the S-300 system to Iran after the deal was first announced in 2010.

Iran’s receiving the S-300 gave its nuclear program a major boost because it can potentially neutralize an Israeli air strike on its nuclear facilities, similar to Israel’s attacks on the Iraqi and Syria reactors in 1981 and 2007. Despite assurances by senior Israelis officials, such as the statement by former Israeli Air Force commander Amir Eshel calling the S-300 “a significant but not insurmountable challenge,” the air defense system significantly complicates Israel’s attack capabilities, both militarily and diplomatically.

A key component to an air assault is taking out the opposing side’s missile defense, yet Russia has made it abundantly clear that it will not tolerate Israeli military action against the expensive S-300 system. For example, Russia recently gave Syrian President Bashar al-Assad the S-300 after the Syrians mistakenly shot down a Russian military jet in September following an Israeli air strike in Latakia and warned Israel not to consider bombing the missile system. Taken it as a given that Russia will not allow Israel to bomb Iran’s S-300 batteries, the decision to transfer it put a major dent in any planned Israeli air assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

It is important to reiterate that not all of the aforementioned actions stem from a conscious Russian decision to equip Iran with nuclear weapons. Many observers attribute the decisions mentioned above to a mixture of geopolitical and economic factors; for example, Russia sold nuclear reactors and the S-300 to Tehran in part for the economic windfall such weapons deals brought. Russia’s failure to prevent rampant defections by its top scientists to Iran in the 1990s was a result of incompetence and corruption. However, it is an incontrovertible fact that all of these actions taken together have drastically furthered Iran’s nuclear program.

On July 14, 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was signed in a festive ceremony in Vienna. The product of lengthy negotiations between Iran and a formidable coalition consisting of China, France, Russia, England, the United States, Germany, and the European Union, the accords removed sanctions on Iran in exchange for the freezing of Iran’s nuclear program. In a statement following the signing, Russian President Vladimir Putin implied that the accords were signed in order to avert the spectacle of a nuclear Iran. “We are certain that the world heaved a sigh of relief today,” said Putin. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov concurred, saying that the JCPOA “will favorably affect the general situation in the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf.”

The flowery platitudes masked the characteristic Russian cynicism. Without Russia, Iran would never be on the cusp today of obtaining the most destructive weapon known to mankind, and almost everything Iran has done in its multi-decade effort for atomic weaponry has been either directly or indirectly aided by Russia.

Source: https://www.opslens.com/2018/10/19/how-russia-enabled-iran-to-go-nuclear/

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Nikki Haley, the United States ambassador to the United Nations, is set to lay out Thursday what the Trump administration claims is “irrefutable evidence that Iran has deliberately violated its international obligations and has tried and failed to cover up these violations,” her office said in a statement Wednesday.

The announcement will come as the U.N. presents a report today on the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the Iran nuclear agreement, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The resolution calls on Iran not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles for eight years as well.

It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will seek to punish Iran for the alleged “violations,” but Haley’s announcement comes a month before the Jan. 13 deadline by when President Donald Trump must again certify whether or not Iran is in compliance with the nuclear deal, which was negotiated under the Obama administration, and also decide whether to extend a waiver on sanctions.

On Oct. 13, Trump announced a decision not to certify Iran’s compliance, stating, “We will not continue down a path whose predictable conclusion is more violence, more chaos, the very real threat of Iran’s nuclear breakout.”

“In the event we are not able to reach a solution working with Congress and our allies, then the agreement will be terminated,” the president warned at the time. “It is under continuous review, and our participation can be canceled by me, as president, at any time.”

Trump’s announcement triggered a 60-day period for Congress to decide whether to re-impose sanctions that were lifted under the deal. That period ended Tuesday with Congress deciding not to act.

Source: http://abc13.com/haley-vows-to-give-irrefutable-evidence-iran-violated-international-obligations/2778179/

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