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Why Iraq is at the center of the dispute between Iran and the United States

Adam Taylor — Tue, 31 Dec 2019 02:05:11 +0000

Protesters burn property in front of the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad on Tuesday. (Khalid Mohammed/AP)

Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated throughout 2019, but on New Year’s Eve these tensions were illustrated by a dramatic new image: the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad under siege.

That militia supporters targeted the embassy in Iraq was no surprise. For the United States, which has no diplomatic relations with Iran, Iraq has become a flash point for tensions with the Iranian regime.

A rocket attack Friday on a base housing U.S. troops in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk killed an American contractor. The United States blamed an Iran-backed group for the attack and in response on Sunday launched airstrikes against bases along the border with Syria used by the group Kataib Hezbollah, killing 25 militia members and injuring more than 50.

The airstrikes drew condemnation from not only Tehran but also Baghdad, which declared they were a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. As a crowd of hundreds, many armed, broke into the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad on Tuesday, they shouted, “Death to America.”

Why are the United States and Iran at odds?

Iran was a close ally of the United States during most of the reign of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. But Pahlavi was overthrown by the 1979 Iranian revolution and replaced with a Shiite-led Islamic Republic. That November, Iranian militants took about 70 Americans hostage at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. The hostages were held for 444 days. Iran’s relationship with the United States rapidly deteriorated and has remained strained since.

Some point to U.S. meddling in the Middle East and alliance with Israel and rival Sunni powers as justification for Iranian suspicions, while others argue that Iran itself is an expansionist power, eager to push the influence of the Shiite branch of Islam across the Middle East. Washington and its allies in the Middle East also suspect that Iran is seeking to develop a nuclear weapons program.

Both sides have intermittently tried to lower tensions, emphasizing that their issues are with the respective governments and not the people of the nation. Protracted negotiations resulted in a 2015 deal between Iran and a number of world powers, including the United States, that sought to place restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.

Why are both the United States and Iran interested in Iraq?

Iraq is Iran’s neighbor. The two nations share a 900-mile-long border. Historically, Iraq had formed part of Persia for hundreds of years. Roughly 70 percent of its population is Shiite, with most of the remaining population Sunni (in Iran, more than 90 percent of the population is Shiite), though Iran has almost four times the territory as Iraq.

In the modern era, the two countries have had a tense relationship: Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein invaded Iran in 1980, prompting an eight-year war that left hundreds of thousands dead. However, after Saddam’s Sunni-dominated government was toppled by the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iraq came to be dominated by Shiite political groups, some of whom were allied with Iran.

The United States was opposed to Saddam’s Baathist government but provided support for Iraq during its war with Iran. Later, after Iraq invaded U.S. ally Kuwait in 1990, the coalition defeated Saddam’s forces in the Persian Gulf War. President George W. Bush labeled both Iraq and Iran part of the “axis of evil” in a 2002 speech, despite their opposition to each other.

The invasion of Iraq in 2003 ousted Saddam, but U.S. troops remained in the country to combat a violent insurgency. Although the administration of President Barack Obama completed the withdrawal of troops in 2011, troops were redeployed to the country in 2014 to combat the Islamic State, an extremist Sunni group.

These 3 pro-Iran militia leaders are rabble-rousing protesters at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad

What effect did the rise of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq have on the U.S.-Iran relationship?

The Islamic State has its origins in Iraq, but it came to prominence in the chaos of the war in neighboring Syria that began in 2013 and is ongoing. At its peak in late 2014, the self-proclaimed caliphate controlled an area the size of Britain and used it as a base to call for attacks, including on both U.S. and Iranian interests.

Iran and the United States backed opposing sides in the Syrian war. Tehran viewed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as a key ally in the region, whereas the United States and other Western powers backed rebels who opposed his government. But for both, the Islamic State presented a more pressing problem.

With U.S. airstrikes, as well as the intervention of forces loyal to Iran and the Russian military, the Islamic State ceded the last of its territory earlier this year. However, the end of that fight raised the possibility of new conflict between Iran and the United States. President Trump has taken a critical view of Iran since taking office in 2017.

The tension between the United States and Iran was especially noteworthy in Iraq, where about 5,000 U.S. troops are deployed ostensibly to aid the Iraqi fight against the Islamic State. Powerful Shiite militias, many allied with Iran, expanded their reach during the battle to liberate land held by the Islamic State as part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a state-sponsored organization of militias.

What relationship does Iran have with groups in Iraq and Syria?

Iran has long been accused of running a network of proxies across the Middle East, using Shiite militias and political parties to undermine rival governments. Often, the exact nature of its relationship with these groups, and the level of autonomy from Tehran, is hard to gauge for outsiders, which critics say gives Iran a degree of plausible deniability for anti-U.S. actions.

In Iraq, there are a variety of Shiite militias. Not all formed at the same time, and they do not have identical interests, but they have had increasing political clout since the battle against the Islamic State, gaining almost a third of the seats in Iraq’s parliament in 2018 elections.

Over the past year, frequent rocket attacks on bases used by U.S. troops in Iraq have led to increasing tension. After the strikes against Kataib Hezbollah on Sunday, a senior U.S. State Department official briefed reporters that the blame lay not just with Iran but also with Iraq. “It is their responsibility to protect us, and they have not taken appropriate steps to do so,” the official said.

The apparent ease with which supporters of Kataib Hezbollah and other Shiite militias were able to reach the U.S. Embassy, which lies in Baghdad’s secure Green Zone, surprised many observers. Trump tweeted Tuesday that he expected Iraq to protect the embassy.

How has Trump changed the United States’ relationship with Iran and Iraq since entering office?

Trump viewed the Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran with suspicion and argued that the previous administration had not done enough to curtail Iranian influence across the region. The president pulled the United States out of the deal in May 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran.

The United States has since specifically targeted Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a religious and political figure who is the ultimate decision-maker in the country. It has also designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization.

Despite the political and economic pressure on Iran, there has been no indication that support for foreign militias has been curtailed. Iran has been linked to attacks on a Saudi oil facility, as well as foreign tankers in the Persian Gulf. Though most parties to the nuclear deal remain in the agreement, Iran has also started enriching and stockpiling at a higher level than allowed by the deal.

At the same time, tensions between the United States and Iraq have escalated under Trump. In early 2019, Iraqi President Barham Salih said his country would reject Trump’s idea that the United States could keep American troops in Iraq to “watch” Iran. The Iraqi government argued that Sunday’s airstrikes were an affront to their nation’s sovereignty and broke the status of forces agreement that allows U.S. troops in Iraq.

But Iran’s influence in Iraq is also a point of contention for many: As thousands took to the streets to protest the government this fall, some targeted Iranian interests, even burning down the Iranian Consulate in Karbala in early November.

In a later tweet on Tuesday, Trump appealed to the Iraqis who were tired of Iranian influence:

The post Why Iraq is at the center of the dispute between Iran and the United States first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Iran Presence in Iraq Threatens Israel, Security Officials Say

Yaniv Kubovich — Wed, 31 Jul 2019 09:17:44 +0000

Reports Tuesday credited Israel with earlier attacks on Iranian targets in Iraq ■ Israeli intelligence says Iran is providing Iraqi militias with missiles more accurate than Hezbollah’s, capable of hitting anywhere in Israel.

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Iran’s military entrenchment in Iraq poses a threat to Israel, defense officials say.

Iran began bolstering its presence in Iraq after Israel stepped up attacks on Iranian targets in Syria and Syrian President Bashar Assad regained control over most of his country. Israel’s efforts to thwart Iran’s attempts to bring sophisticated weaponry and air and naval forces into Syria led Tehran to revert to its old method of relying on local militias, which is harder for Israel to counter.

Israel’s intelligence assessment for 2019 states that despite Iran’s difficulties in entrenching itself militarily in Syria, it hasn’t given up on its ambition “to create regional hegemony for itself via alliances spreading from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon.” Nevertheless, the assessment continued: “Iran has been forced to recalculate the way it tries to realize its regional vision. This recalculation led Iran to realize that the domestic and international situation in Iraq created better opportunities for it to prepare its regional plans.”

Israeli defense officials say Iran has shifted the bulk of its deployment of missile systems outside the country to Iraq, which is harder for Israel to attack than Syria was. The latest airstrikes on Iraq, which the London-based paper Asharq Al-Awsat attributed to Israel on Tuesday, were aimed at such missile systems.

According to Israeli intelligence, Iran is currently providing Iraqi militias with missiles that have ranges of 200 to 700 kilometers and are capable of hitting anywhere in Israel. These missiles are more accurate than the ones in Hezbollah’s arsenal. Iran may use them either to hit Israel directly from northern Iraq or to transfer them as needed to Syria and Lebanon.

Iran’s regional deployment is largely based on missiles because it doesn’t think its aerial and ground forces are capable of standing up to Western armies. Consequently, it has focused on improving both the range and accuracy of its missiles in recent years.

According to media reports, the latest airstrikes attributed to Israel took place in northwestern Iraq. They targeted weapons storehouses and missiles at bases where Iranian advisers were present.

Two weeks ago, the media reported a drone strike in Iraq that killed members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah. Foreign media reports said the target that time was a base where missiles destined for Iranian-backed militias in Iraq were being stored.

Foreign media have also reported several other attacks on Iraq, some of which were attributed to Israel.

So far, however, Israel has kept mum about all these attacks, aside from a video clip published by the ruling Likud party that showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an old speech to the United Nations vowing to act against Iran anywhere, including in Iraq. This clip, reposted three days after the attack on the base where Iranian forces were killed, could be seen as a hint that Israel was behind that strike.

But Israel has much less freedom of action in Iraq than in Syria because while it has the capability to strike Iraq, doing so could create problems with the United States administration.

U.S. President Donald Trump wants calm restored to Iraq as quickly as possible, and an airstrike on the country undermines its stability and deters foreign investors and donor states. Consequently, Iran is the one country whose trade with Iran has been exempted de facto from U.S. sanctions.

U.S. spy planes have recently intensified operations along the Iraq-Syria border. This may be a way of signaling to Israel that America will take care of preventing the smuggling of sophisticated arms to Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria. Alternatively, America may have started taking action against Iran’s entrenchment in Iraq for fear that Iranian-sponsored militias in Iraq will attack U.S. forces.

Shi’ite militias are the second cornerstone of Iran’s military entrenchment in Iraq, alongside its missile deployments. Economic problems and growing religious extremism in many Arab countries have enabled Iran to recruit volunteers for the militias it supports. And these militias let it carry out military operations without taking responsibility for them.

Iran had ties with militias in Iraq even back in the 1980s and 1990s. But these militias have become more powerful militarily as technology improved and as their political power grew.

Iran provides them with military, economic, logistical and religious support. In exchange, they will help Iran if it asks them – including, according to a senior Israeli defense official, by coming to the Lebanese or Syrian borders to participate in fighting against Israel. The Dado Center for Interdisciplinary Military Studies, which is part of the Israel Defense Forces, also said in recent reports that Israel must take these militias into account in future fighting.

The strongest Iranian-backed militia is Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the model Iran seeks to replicate in other countries. Since 2014, it has also supported a network of Shi’ite militias in Iraq. These militias, now known as the Popular Mobilization Units, are second only to Hezbollah in terms of their importance to Iran. They united under the Popular Mobilization Units umbrella at the urging of Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the Iranian-born cleric who is the spiritual leader of Iraqi Shi’ites.

The strongest militia in the PMU is the Badr Organization, which has both a political and a military wing. The latter is thought to have some 50,000 fighters. The Badr Organization is headed by Hadi al-Amiri, a former transportation minister who is close to Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force. The organization also fought alongside America against the Islamic State.

Another important element of the PMU is Kata’ib Hezbollah. It was founded by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iraqi Shi’ite trained in Iran to establish an Iraqi organization resembling the Quds Force. He is very close to Soleimani and has said in the past that he’s willing to fight alongside Iran.

The PMU also includes Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, which has perpetrated attacks on American forces in Iraq. Its leaders are very close to senior Hezbollah officials, and Hezbollah helps fund it. Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq also gets millions of dollars each month from Iran.

Hadi Mizban, AP

Yaniv Kubovich – Haaretz Correspondent

Source: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-iran-presence-in-iraq-threatens-israel-security-officials-say-1.7606916

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The post Iran Presence in Iraq Threatens Israel, Security Officials Say first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.