Leo Varadkar (Ireland) - Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association

Forget Brexit – the European Union’s problems are only just beginning

Mark Wallace — Mon, 24 Feb 2020 00:01:20 +0000

Former Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has complained that Ireland will be paying more to the EU after Brexit (Photo: LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP via Getty Images)

The UK has left, but the EU remains. The psychodrama in this country about leaving has been so intense that few people on either side of the domestic debate have been able to give much thought as to what this means for the EU and its continuing members.

The EU itself has inevitably had a lot of its own bandwidth tied up by the question of Brexit – both in terms of how the negotiations define its relationship with one of its largest external markets, and in terms of what the departure of a member state says about the nature and direction of the Euro-federalist project.

The untangling of almost 50 years of integration is not yet over. There is a future relationship with the UK to negotiate before the year is out. But our formal departure from the organization nonetheless allows people and politicians on both sides of the Channel to take stock of what the future might hold for the EU.

You might expect integrationists to be optimistic. Fine, they never wanted to lose a member state – and a major one, at that – along the way, and Brexit marks the first time the EU has contracted rather than expanded, but it also signifies the removal of a roadblock to further integration.

The UK was always a reluctant member, requiring carve-outs, exemptions, and rebates, and muttering about awkward things like the democratic deficit and the need for referendums. Many times over the years, politicians and officials in Brussels have understandably griped about the way we have acted as a drag on their dreams of a unified EU superstate. Now that we’re gone, isn’t that a problem solved?

Other countries will have to start standing up for themselves (Photo: TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images)

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Not exactly. For a start, other countries that also had their doubts about various aspects of the EU’s operations have long been able to rely on the UK to rock the boat in ways that they like. No longer – without difficult Britons to rely on, they now face the uncomfortable choice of fighting those battles harder for themselves or answering to their voters for unpopular measures that may now be passed. Pro-market countries such as the Netherlands, for example, or states such as Denmark which value their opt-out from the euro must now take a firmer stance to champion their positions.

And our departure as a political member also means our departure as a net contributor to the EU’s budget. The Commission still wants to spend big, as a sign that there are no doubts and no back-pedaling on the project, but they must take €70bn (£59bn) more from the remaining members.

This is a challenge for the remaining EU states. The former Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar, of all people, finds himself complaining that the Commission’s proposed budget “means Ireland will contribute much more to the EU budget but will actually receive less back”.

Legislative and budgetary issues are not the only problems the EU faces, either. I wrote a year ago in this column that the UK was a beacon of comparative political stability in an increasingly unstable Europe with Emmanuel Macron’s government in crisis and Italy’s Five Star movement on the rise.

That has become truer over the past 12 months: we have gained a solid majority government, while Varadkar’s domestic failures have visited a Sinn Féin surge on Ireland, and the Greens are now menacing the established parties in Germany.

Less stability at home makes for more fractious member states at EU summits. Leaders without good majorities find it hard to agree things, and are more prone to being brought down suddenly (just ask Theresa May).

Meanwhile, the Commission both wants and needs agreement on increasingly ambitious and contentious questions.

The EU’s biggest difficulty is that despite the huge alarm which Brexit ought to have sounded, Brussels still refuses to consider whether the project needs democratic reform or strategic redirection. More integration appears to be their only answer, regardless of the question.

Mark Wallace is executive editor of ConservativeHome.com, a politics blog

Source: https://inews.co.uk/opinion/brexit-european-union-leo-varadkar-budget-1889680

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Brexit: Boris Johnson agrees new Brexit deal with EU – BBC News

BBC News — Fri, 18 Oct 2019 05:11:59 +0000

The post Brexit: Boris Johnson agrees new Brexit deal with EU – BBC News first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

What Is Brexit? What Does ‘No-Deal’ Mean?

Benjamin Mueller — Mon, 16 Sep 2019 10:35:32 +0000

Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Britain’s two main political parties are haggling over the nation’s withdrawal from the European Union, known as Brexit. The badly divided government is in crisis, unable to agree on an approach to the country’s biggest peacetime decision in decades. The deadline to come up with a plan is fast approaching.

The struggle has already cost one prime minister, Theresa May, her job; she announced on May 24 that she would resign after failing to come up with a plan that satisfied her party, her coalition partners and officials in Brussels, the seat of the European Union.

Now it is taking a toll on her successor, Boris Johnson. The Conservative Party chose Mr. Johnson, a brash proponent of withdrawal, to succeed Mrs. May and take control of the Brexit process.

It has not gone well.

Many lawmakers were outraged over Mr. Johnson’s insistence that if need be, he would pull Britain from the European Union even without a formal agreement — a move many warn could mean major economic damage. And his attempts to in effect shut Parliament out of the process did not win him many friends.

When lawmakers rose up, seizing control of the legislative process, and Mr. Johnson lost his majority in Parliament, he responded by tossing out rebels from his Conservative Party and demanding a new general election.

The deadline for withdrawal is currently Oct. 31. Mr. Johnson insists he can cut a deal with the European Union before then. But time is rapidly running out.

What ultimately emerges could determine the shape of Britain and its place in the world for decades. Following is a basic guide to Brexit, what it is, how it developed into the mess it is today and how it could ultimately be resolved.

What is Brexit?

A portmanteau of the words “Britain” and “exit,” Brexit is shorthand for Britain’s split from the European Union, changing its relationship to the bloc on trade, security, and migration.

Britain has been debating the pros and cons of membership in a European community of nations almost from the moment the idea was broached. It held its first referendum on membership in what was then called the European Economic Community in 1975, less than three years after it joined when 67 percent of voters supported staying in the bloc.

In 2013, Prime Minister David Cameron promised a national referendum on European Union membership with the idea of settling the question once and for all. The options it offered were broad and vague — Remain or Leave — and Mr. Cameron was convinced that Remain would win handily.

Britons voted on June 23, 2016, as a refugee crisis made migration a subject of political rage across Europe and amid accusations that the Leave campaign had relied on lies and broken election laws. An ill-defined Brexit won 52 percent of the vote.

Not only did that not settle the debate, but it also saved for another day the tangled question of what should come next. After nearly three years of debate and negotiation, that remains unanswered.

How did the vote break down?

Most voters in England and Wales supported Brexit, particularly in rural areas and smaller cities. That overcame majority support to remain in the European Union in London, Scotland and Northern Ireland. See a detailed map of the vote.

Young people overwhelmingly voted against leaving, while older voters supported it.

Why is it such a big deal?

Europe is Britain’s most important export market and its biggest source of foreign investment, and membership in the bloc has helped London cement its position as a global financial center. An announcement, or at least a threat, from a major business to leave Britain because of Brexit is a regular occurrence. The list of companies that are thinking about relocating includes Airbus, which employs 14,000 people and supports more than 100,000 other jobs.

The government has projected that in 15 years, the country’s economy will be 4 percent to 9 percent smaller under Brexit than it would inside the bloc, depending on how it leaves.

Mrs. May had promised that Brexit would end free movement, the right of people from elsewhere in Europe to live and work in Britain, and vice versa. That was a triumph for some working-class people who see immigration as a threat to their jobs, but dispiriting for young Britons hoping to study or work abroad.

Mr. Johnson wants to strike an agreement of his own with Brussels by Oct. 31 — specifically one without the controversial Irish border provisions in Mrs. May’s deal — but that may not be possible.

What’s holding it up?

Undoing 46 years of economic integration in one stroke was never going to be easy, and the Brexit process has been bedeviled by the same divisions that led to the referendum in the first place. Both Britain’s main parties, the governing Conservatives and the Labour opposition, are divided over what to do, leaving Parliament so factionalized that there may be no coherent plan that would get a majority.

Mrs. May spent 18 months negotiating a divorce deal with the European Union, shedding one cabinet minister after another in the process. Her plan would have kept customs and trade arrangements at least temporarily, but ultimately envisioned cutting most of those ties. It did not detail what would replace them in Britain’s future relationship with the European Union.

When she presented her plan to Parliament in January, it was rejected by a historic margin of 230 votes. When she tried again in March, she fared less badly, but the pact was still soundly defeated, 391 to 242.

Some ardent Brexiteers, who would accept a no-deal withdrawal, came around to supporting Mrs. May’s deal — not because they liked it, but because they believed it might be their only chance to avoid a soft Brexit or remaining in the bloc. But a third attempt to pass her bill, also in March, failed 344 to 286.

That prompted Mrs. May to do something she had hoped to avoid: negotiate with Labour, which advocates a soft Brexit. Those talks failed to accomplish anything that would allow her to proceed, and she was eventually forced to abandon plans for a fourth vote. The revised plan was scorned by both Conservative and Labour lawmakers, and the decision not to publish the plan, let alone hold a vote, was a clear sign that Mrs. May’s days were numbered.

We keep hearing about the Irish border. What’s that about?

The single greatest hangup is the question of Britain’s only land border with the European Union — the invisible line between Ireland, another member state of the bloc, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom.

Mrs. May and her Irish counterpart, Leo Varadkar, want to prevent checkpoints from going up at the border; such barriers are generally seen as incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, which brought respite from decades of violence in Northern Ireland.

But the method she agreed for guaranteeing that — called “the backstop” — has alienated much of Parliament.

The backstop would keep the United Kingdom in a trading relationship with Europe until a final deal to avoid a hard border could be agreed on, something that hard-line Brexiteers fear would never happen.

And it would bind Northern Ireland to even more European rules, to the dismay of those who reject any regulatory differences between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. Most notably, that includes the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, whose 10 lawmakers give Mrs. May her parliamentary majority.

Mr. Johnson has promised to negotiate a new deal without the backstop arrangement, which he says would leave Britain in an “absolutely unacceptable” situation.

How did we end up with an Oct. 31 deadline?

Just about the only clear decision Parliament has made on Brexit since the 2016 referendum was to give formal notice in 2017 to quit, under Article 50 of the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty, a legal process setting it on a two-year path to departure. That set March 29, 2019, as the formal divorce date.

When it became clear that Parliament would not accept Mrs. May’s deal by then, the European Union pushed the precipice back to April 12, to allow her to try again. The timing was dictated by the coming European Parliament elections, the thinking being that if Britain were to take part in that vote, it would need to begin preparing at least six weeks in advance.

Once again, the “cliff-edge” of a no-deal Brexit loomed, but the new deadline did not yield any more agreement in London, forcing Mrs. May to plead, again, for more time. European leaders insisted on a longer delay this time and set Oct. 31 as the date.

But in announcing her decision to step aside, Mrs. May acknowledged that lawmakers had yet to find a way to pass that deal or to agree on what they want instead.

The fantasy that Brexit would be easy has crumbled, and lawmakers who made lofty promises to their constituents are having to face hard reality.

Somehow, having the nightmare come to a head — again — on Halloween seems fitting.

What happens next?

On Aug. 28, Mr. Johnson announced that he would cut short the time lawmakers have to debate his Brexit plans before the Oct. 31st withdrawal deadline.

The move drew swift and fierce backlash from the opposition — and some lawmakers within Mr. Johnson’s own Conservative Party — and caused the British pound to plunge.

In the first week of September, Parliament blocked his plans to leave the union with or without an agreement. It then stymied his bid, at least for now, to call an election for Oct. 15, out of fear he could secure a new majority in favor of breaking with Europe, deal or no deal. But the government has said it would hold another parliamentary vote on Sept. 9th on an early election.

What are the alternatives?

Mr. Johnson has said he would be prepared to lead a no-deal withdrawal, but that he will work toward a better deal. A less strident leader might have tacked to the center by committing to a customs union with Europe — a close trading relationship that would prevent the imposition of tariffs and quotas. That would solve the Irish border dilemma and possibly win votes from Labour lawmakers.

Mr. Corbyn has worked hard not to commit Labour to a distinct course on Brexit. But under pressure from many of his members, he has moved toward supporting a second referendum on the eventual withdrawal agreement.

But a referendum could take many forms, and even among its backers, there is no agreement on that, either. Nor is it certain that a rerun of the vote would deliver a different result.

Still, other pro-Europe voters want Parliament to kill Brexit on its own, or at least delay it for years, by revoking Article 50.

With the suspension of Parliament and a shorter time to come up with a plan, exiting without a deal remains a real possibility, one that that hard-line pro-Brexit forces in the Conservative Party, including Mr. Johnson, insist would be preferable to a long delay.

Visit our more detailed guide to what could happen next.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/world/europe/what-is-brexit.html

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Former Tory leader outlines plan to SAVE Brexit that is sure to INFURIATE Brussels

Claire Anderson — Sat, 13 Apr 2019 19:28:09 +0000

BRITAIN could leave the EU on time if Theresa May reopened negotiations on the Irish backstop, according to a former Conservative leader.

Lord Howard claimed the House of Commons would support Prime Minister’s deal on the condition she renegotiates the Northern Ireland backstop. He wrote the Daily Telegraph: “Achieving this would not just win the support of Parliament but also create a coherent position around which a Conservative Party that appears dangerously disunited could begin to coalesce. The problems with the backstop arise solely out of the EU’s refusal to countenance any change to the wording of the Withdrawal Agreement.

“But in recent days there have been a number of developments which completely change the dynamics of these discussions.”

Mr Howard, who was leader from 2003 to 2005, added that Brexiteers have argued against the backstop believing alternative arrangements could be made.

He said: “This argument has now received complete endorsement from the leaders of the EU.

“Leo Varadkar, the Prime Minister of the Irish Republic, told the Dail that under no circumstances would there be a border between the Republic and Northern Ireland.

Lord Howard claimed the House of Commons would support Prime Minister’s deal (Image: GETTY)

The Brexiteer added Mrs May’s Withdrawal Agreement has secured a majority in Commons before (Image: GETTY)

“An identical assurance was given to the European Parliament by Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission.”

The Brexiteer added Mrs May’s Withdrawal Agreement has secured a majority in Commons without the backstop.

Under Mrs May’s Brexit deal the UK will automatically drop into a customs union with the EU unless a new trading relationship is established during the implementation period.

Membership of a European customs union would mean the UK still has to follow a significant proportion of EU rules with very little say, whilst being unable to negotiate comprehensive free trade agreements with third countries.

Mr Howard, who was leader from 2003 to 2005, added that Brexiteers have argued against the backstop (Image: GETTY)

Lord Howard said: “I fully understand that this is not the only reason why some have refused to support the Withdrawal Agreement.

“But the Brady amendment shows that it is the backstop which is the crucial factor in the Government’s inability, so far, to obtain a majority for it.

“So there are now powerful reasons for those who have opposed the agreement on these grounds to think again.

“After all, if the Government proceeds with its declared intention of putting a further series of indicative votes to the House, we are quite likely to find that the amendment proposed by Kenneth Clarke, which would keep us in a full-blown customs union, will pass.

“This is the amendment which has come closest to passing in previous votes, but would make it impossible for us to enter into trading agreements with other countries.”

Source: https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1113692/brexit-news-latest-irish-backstop-leave-eu-no-deal-michael-howard-theresa-may

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Brexit: Theresa May ‘hopes’ UK will leave EU with a deal

BBC with Analysis by Katya Adler - Europe editor — Thu, 21 Mar 2019 11:37:24 +0000

Getty Images

Theresa May has said she “sincerely hopes” the UK will leave the EU with a deal and she is still “working on” ensuring Parliament’s agreement.

Arriving in Brussels, she said that she had “personal regret” over her request to delay Brexit, but said it will allow time for MPs to make a “final choice”.

At the EU summit the PM spoke to the other 27 leaders to try to get their backing for a delay beyond 29 March.

Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn said his talks in Brussels were “very constructive”.

BBC Brussels correspondent Adam Fleming said Mrs May spoke to EU leaders for 90 minutes and was asked several times what her contingency plans were if she lost the third “meaningful vote” on her deal in Parliament.

French President Emmanuel Macron has warned that if MPs vote down Mrs May’s EU withdrawal agreement next week, the UK will leave without a deal.

“In the case of a negative British vote then we’d be heading to a no deal. We all know it. And it’s essential to be clear in these days and moments,” said Mr Macron, as he arrived at the summit.

EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said that a short Brexit delay “should be conditional on a positive vote next week in the House of Commons”.

“We have done our best, now the solution is in London,” he said.

How the day will unfold (timings are approximate):

EU leaders are discussing whether to grant the UK’s request and examining other Brexit options
18:00 GMT – Press conference by European Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker
18:30 GMT – Working dinner
Mrs May is also expected to make a statement

On her arrival in Brussels, Mrs May said: “A short extension gives us that opportunity to decide to leave the European Union, to deliver on that result of that referendum and I sincerely hope that will be with a negotiated deal.”

She added: “I’m still working on ensuring that Parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way.”

Earlier, speaking in the German Parliament, Angela Merkel said the EU could meet Mrs May’s request to delay Brexit if in the next week there was a “positive vote” on the withdrawal agreement in the UK Parliament.

The German Chancellor said European elections at the end of May would have to be considered during discussions on the suggested extension deadline of 30 June, adding: “But of course we can certainly talk about a short term extension.”

Leaders want to avoid no-deal Brexit

Beware the reports of “huge” differences between EU leaders when it comes to a Brexit delay and the way forward in the coming days.

Take Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Emmanuel Macron: there are big differences in their political styles.

And big differences in the message they want to send their own domestic audiences (tough for France; open for Germany) when talking about Brexit.

But like most EU leaders – irritation, frustration and Brexit fatigue aside – they would rather avoid a costly no-deal Brexit.

Chancellor Merkel, like European Council President Donald Tusk has announced she will work “until the last hours” to try to avoid it.

And while EU leaders have ruled out re-opening the Brexit withdrawal agreement and the “backstop” text, you can bet they’ll discuss a longer Brexit delay at their summit today.

They will also discuss the short delay requested by Theresa May, in case – as the EU fears – chaos and division continue next week in Westminster.

The UK is set to leave the EU next Friday unless the law is changed. The current default position for leaving is without a withdrawal agreement.

Mrs May agreed a deal with the EU, but MPs have rejected it twice.

She has asked the EU for a short extension of the two-year Brexit process until 30 June, but any extension needs to be agreed to by all EU members.

European Council President Donald Tusk said he believed the EU would agree to a short extension, but this would only be if Mrs May’s deal is signed off by MPs next week. Another EU summit next week could be called in an emergency if needed, he said.

Mr Tusk said the “question remains open” as to how long a delay the other EU leaders would support.

Taoiseach (Irish PM) Leo Varadkar said that he appreciated the situation in London was “somewhat chaotic” and for that reason “we need to cut the entire British establishment a little bit of slack on this”.

He said there was “openness to an extension” as “nobody wants no deal”.

In her speech from Number 10 on Wednesday evening, Mrs May insisted she would not be willing to postpone Brexit any further than 30 June, despite appeals from some MPs.

She added: “Of this I am absolutely sure. You, the public, have had enough.

“You are tired of the infighting, tired of the political games and the arcane procedural rows, tired of MPs talking about nothing else but Brexit when you have real concerns about our children’s schools, our National Health Service, knife crime.

“You want this stage of the Brexit process to be over and done with. I agree. I am on your side.”

She said it was now up to MPs to decide whether they wanted to leave with her deal, no deal or not to leave at all. But she warned that the latter option could cause “irreparable damage to public trust” in politicians.

Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said the UK would be faced with three options if Mrs May’s deal was defeated again next week: revoke Article 50; leave without a deal; or a longer extension could be granted at an emergency EU summit, but with “onerous conditions”.

“The choice that we have now is one of resolving this issue or extreme unpredictability,” Mr Hunt told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

He also defended the prime minister’s statement, saying Mrs May was under “extraordinary pressure” and MPs have a “special responsibility” in a hung Parliament.

Many MPs have expressed anger at Mrs May’s comments, with Conservative MP Nicky Morgan telling the BBC’s World at One they were “terribly misjudged”.

Fellow Tory Ben Bradley, who had backed Mrs May’s deal, said they were “not helpful”.

Meanwhile, union and business leaders have written a joint letter to Mrs May urging her to “change course” in her approach to Brexit, saying the UK is facing a “national emergency”.

TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady and CBI director general Carolyn Fairbairn have requested a meeting to discuss their concerns.

They said: “Our country is facing a national emergency. Decisions of recent days have caused the risk of no deal to soar.

“Firms and communities across the UK are not ready for this outcome. The shock to our economy would be felt by generations to come.”

Jeremy Corbyn says consensus can be built around Labour’s plan – Reuters

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said talks with EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and European Commission secretary general Martin Selmayr in Brussels were “very constructive”.

“Our determination is to prevent a no-deal exit from the European Union next Friday,” he said.

“We are therefore looking for alternatives and building a majority in Parliament that can agree on a future constructive economic relationship with the European Union.”

He said he had been “reaching out” to colleagues from all parties in Parliament on this.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47648565

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