But there’s another major story. Many feared that Germany might shift to the right, following countries like Austria or Switzerland, where xenophobic parties have long been powerful. Instead, Germany’s far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) lost 11 seats, receiving about 10 percent of the vote.

Why did the AfD lose votes in this election? In an age where right-wing populists appeal to many voters, the German election results suggest that centrist parties are finding ways to contain the far right.

Why the AfD lost ground

In 2017, following highly politicized refugee inflows entering Europe and Germany, the AfD won 12.6 percent of the vote and 94 seats in the Bundestag, Germany’s federal parliament. For the first time since World War II, a far-right party had made it into the Bundestag.

The anti-Muslim AfD scored big in Germany’s 2017 election. What does this mean for German Muslims?

Numerous polls since then showed the AfD gaining supporters, even outperforming the Social Democrats at times. But by early 2021, AfD support had ebbed, in part because of moves by Germany’s centrist parties. Instead of engaging in debates about immigration, centrist candidates tried to strike a moderate or even welcoming tone on immigration. And rather than make immigration a central theme in the election, they focused on other issues that German voters care about, including economic security and climate change.

When centrist parties face far-right challengers, research suggests that they have three strategic options: They can move to the right and co-opt far-right positions; they can stand their ground and denounce the far right’s positions; or they can shift the agenda and downplay issues on which the far right thrives — typically issues such as immigration, multiculturalism or crime.

In recent years, German parties have tried out all of these approaches — and, for the most part, they’ve found that co-optation doesn’t work. For example, Markus Söder, head of the Christian Social Union and Bavarian prime minister, learned this lesson the hard way when his party experienced historic losses in the 2018 Bavarian elections. To recapture AfD voters, Söder had styled himself as an immigration hard-liner. After this strategy backfired, he embraced more moderate positions, acknowledging that the co-optation strategy led to a “political near-death experience.”

Angela Merkel’s bloc lost ground in Sunday’s election. So who won?

Co-opting far-right themes may cost votes

Academic research confirms Söder’s assessment. In our recent paper, Winston Chou, Naoki Egami, Amaney Jamal and I studied whether and how mainstream parties could win back AfD voters. We interviewed German voters for 15 months in 2016-2017 in four nationally representative surveys of about 3,000 respondents each.

We found that voters who supported the AfD were much less likely than other voters to switch to competing parties. But using an experimental approach, we also found that this loyalty could be broken. When we presented AfD voters with hypothetical centrist party candidates that favored severe immigration restrictions, up to half of the AfD’s electorate could be persuaded to vote for such candidates.

But our experimental evidence also revealed that adopting xenophobic slogans would probably lead to centrist parties losing far more of their own supporters than gaining far-right supporters. Centrist voters are turned off by candidates who impose immigration bans and espouse anti-immigrant rhetoric. And in systems where voters can choose among multiple viable parties, they are likely to abandon those that flirt with the far right.

It appears that most German politicians had come to a similar conclusion this year. To be sure, there was also plenty of immigration-specific rhetoric, including comments by the CDU’s unsuccessful chancellor candidate, Armin Laschet, that “2015 can’t happen again” — a reference to the million or so refugees entering Germany that year. But analysts also pointed out that candidates often remained vague about references to 2015.

Centrist party candidates who did run on far-right slogans this year tended to flounder. One prominent example is the CDU’s Hans-Georg Maaßen. A former head of Germany’s intelligence agency, Maaßen campaigned on a nationalist, anti-immigrant message in the eastern state of Thuringia. He came in a distant third in a race the SPD candidate won (the AfD came in second). Laschet never openly distanced himself from Maaßen, which could have cost the CDU some votes.

The center zeroed in on economic issues

The election results also showed that talking about issues voters care deeply about — but on which the far right is weak — probably contributed to the strong showing of centrist parties. In our 2016-2017 survey, a sizable share of voters said that issues such as economic inequality and pensions decided their vote. We also found that many of these voters, including AfD supporters, rated the AfD’s competence on these issues poorly. And when we presented voters with hypothetical candidates who varied in their competence and positions on economic issues, we found that candidates that highlighted pensions or increased taxes were quite popular.

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These survey findings help explain the Social Democrats’ victory. In exit polls, voters ranked these issues as most important: Economic and social security (the top issue for 28 percent of voters), the economy/employment (22 percent) and the environment/climate change (22 percent). The SPD campaign’s focus on economic issues — and combination of a centrist chancellor candidate and a left-of-center economic platform — apparently paid off. Voters who switched to the SPD — many of them former CDU voters — cited economic and social security as their most important issue.

At the same time, the SPD avoided the trap set by the AfD — it did not buy into the idea that embracing ethnic diversity is a vote loser. Instead the SPD ran a record number of candidates with immigrant backgrounds, positioning itself as an open and cosmopolitan party that can competently address issues.

Put simply, our research and the 2021 German election results suggest that centrism pays off. Despite AfD rhetoric and media coverage to the contrary, most voters in Germany — and perhaps elsewhere — don’t find harsh anti-immigrant positions appealing. Instead, a centrist stance on immigration combined with center-left economics turned out to be a winning strategy.

Professors: Check out TMC’s ever-expanding list of classroom topic guides.

Rafaela Dancygier is professor of politics and public and international affairs and director of the Mamdouha S. Bobst Center for Peace and Justice at Princeton University. She is the author of numerous articles on immigration and party politics and has written two books on the topic, “Immigration and Conflict in Europe” (2010) and “Dilemmas of Inclusion: Muslims in European Politics” (2017).

Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/germany-e2-80-99s-far-right-party-lost-seats-in-last-week-e2-80-99s-election-here-e2-80-99s-why/ar-AAP9yKw

The post Germany’s far-right party lost seats in last week’s election. Here’s why first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Markus Söder heads the Christian Social Union

Bavarian State Premier Markus Söder bowed out of the contest to be the conservative CDU/CSU bloc’s candidate to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany’s September general election.

“The die is cast. Armin Laschet will be the CDU/CSU’s candidate for chancellor,” Söder told a press conference in Munich. This brought to an end what was seen as an acrimonious power struggle, during which Söder and his growing number of supporters pointed to the CSU chair’s better performance in opinion polls, which could make him a more competitive candidate.

Few German politicians have seen their fortunes rise in public opinion during the coronavirus crisis as much as Markus Söder, Bavaria’s state premier and head of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the conservative Bavarian allies to Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). As the chair to the council of state premiers, he has played a prominent part in crisis meetings.

Söder began his latest tenure as state premier in April 2018, following his reelection, with a hymn to his home state: “Bavaria is seeing golden times. Bavaria is strong. Bavaria will grow. Bavaria is solid. Bavaria is safe. Here the world is still in order, and it will stay that way.” The subtext of that speech was the CSU’s age-old message: Bavaria is fine as long as the CSU is fine.

A political all-rounder

But Söder’s rise to the top was a long struggle that has seen delays, patience, haggling, and probably a fair bit of skullduggery and backroom dealing.

Horst Seehofer and Markus Söder were bitter rivals for many years

Markus Söder spent a long time as a regional wannabe. After all, he was made CSU party leader as early as 2003, a post he held for four years. But there was little doubt: he was aiming for the top. Like Franz-Josef Strauss before him, he embodied the drive, the dynamism, and the pride that many Bavarians believe is their hallmark.

Yet it took him another 11 long years before he was strong enough to overtake his predecessor Horst Seehofer — currently Germany’s interior minister — to become Bavarian state premier. The rivalry between the two was bitter — and on occasion, simply out of control. Söder, CSU general secretary as long ago as 2003 to 2007, never made a secret of his sense of a higher calling.

After 2007, he took on a string of posts in the Bavarian Cabinet: minister for federal and European affairs, minister for environment and health, minister of finance, development, and Heimat – that untranslatable patriotic German word whose closest equivalent is homeland. It was only in March 2018 that he finally took over from his longtime rival Horst Seehofer, the current federal interior minister, as head of the Bavarian government.

As a youngster, Söder was an admirer of Franz Josef Strauss.

Ambition and patience

Ironically, although the 54-year-old highlights his loyalty and dedication to Bavaria in almost every statement, he is in fact something of an outsider. He hails from a pocket of Bavaria called Franconia, where people fly their own flags, sing their own songs, and worship their own football team.

Söder might have been Bavarian premier since 2018, but he is quick to point out that he was not born in the opulent state capital Munich, but rather in the historic city of Nuremberg, the capital of Franconia. Add to that: Söder is also a Protestant in a Bavaria that insists fiercely on its Catholic identity. And it goes without saying that the football team he supports so feverishly is not Bayern Munich, but 1.FC Nürnberg.

As a youngster, Söder was not just a fan of his local football team, but also an admirer of the man who more than any other personified post-World War II Bavaria: Franz Josef Strauss. The mercurial, compelling and sometimes authoritarian Strauss led the CSU party — the Bavarian conservatives — for nearly three decades, during which he also served as a cabinet minister in Bonn and chief minister in Bavaria. The young Markus Söder was fascinated by Strauss — not least by his legendary rhetorical wizardry — and hung a picture of the fiery rabble-rouser above his bed.

For a carnival event in 2016 Markus Söder chose to dress up as Bavaria’s King Ludwig II

Representing both the traditional and the modern

Söder has also been able to encompass the whole spectrum from the traditional to the modern. “We want to be modern but stay Bavarian,” he said in his first government declaration in April 2018. “We will manage the future and care for the problems of every individual. Do and care — about the broad strokes and the small worries: that’s our philosophy.” But since the Bavarian state election in October 2018, which brought a historically poor 36.7% for the CSU, he has had to share his government with conservative rivals, the Freie Wähler (Free Voters).

Yet he quickly became a strong partner for Merkel, ending the days when the Seehofer-led CSU occasionally appeared to act as the strongest opposition party to their CDU partners. Söder led the center-right attacks on the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), opposing both left and right-wing extremists.

Markus Söder outperformed Armin Laschet in opinion polls

As the coronavirus crisis began, it was Söder who rose to be among the most popular politicians in Germany. His quick, clear declarations — from closing schools to stopping professional football — left other state premiers trailing behind him, particularly Armin Laschet, leader of Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, who eventually beat him to be the conservative bloc’s candidate to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor.

And today? “His only real political goal was to become chief minister of Bavaria. Well, he achieved that,” Munich journalist Roman Deininger tells DW.

The fact remains: Becoming the conservative candidate to replace Angela Merkel in September’s national election is one thing; however, winning that election is quite another. And, as observers have continually cautioned: this is an election where there is a lot to lose.

This article has been translated from German and was updated since its first publication.

While you’re here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society, with an eye toward understanding this year’s elections and beyond. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter Berlin Briefing, to stay on top of developments as Germany enters the post-Merkel era.

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/who-is-markus-s%C3%B6der-bavarias-premier/a-53525147

The post Who is Markus Söder, Bavaria’s premier? first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Even by Angela Merkel’s own tastes, the last act of Germany’s opera-loving chancellor is bursting with high drama. After nearly 16 years astride the political stage, mastering financial and political crises with her left hand while governing Europe’s largest country with her right, the unflappable physicist of power has met her match in an invisible virus.

When she isn’t haggling over vaccines with the EU’s 26 other leaders, Merkel has to contend with the political priorities and egos of Germany’s 16 state leaders. They – not Berlin’s chancellor – carry front-line competence for pandemic priorities like health and education. Given that, Merkel has done a remarkable job using her political gravitas as leverage in talks.

But she has little direct control over Germany’s chaotic vaccination strategy. Even without shortages in vaccines, each federal state has insisted on its own rollout strategy, creating 16 potential ways to get it wrong.

Things are no less chaotic in Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Three years after she stood down as leader, half a dozen members of the center-right parliamentary party thought a global pandemic, triggering a global run on protective equipment, was the right time to monetize their political connections.

Party leaders acted quickly to dismiss them, and prosecutors are investigating, but it has left voters wondering if these were isolated episodes of political brain fog. Until last month’s revelations, the CDU blocked repeated opposition efforts to beef up Germany’s lax lobby and donation rules.

With a whiff of sleaze in the air, new CDU leader Armin Laschet is spending the Easter break reflecting on his diminishing political options. When he was elected in January, he thought he had first refusal on leading his party, and their Bavarian allies, the CSU, to election day on September 26th. But the graft revelations and perceived pandemic dithering have hit his credibility hard, and his party even harder. After tipping 40 percent in polls during the first pandemic wave, the CDU has slipped six points in a month to just 27 percent in a public television poll.

Speculation is growing that, barring an Easter miracle, Laschet will stand aside and allow Bavaria’s CSU leader Markus Söder front the election campaign.

With six months to polling day, Germany’s alternative coalition options are looking more realistic by the day, with the Greens and Social Democratic Party (SPD) looking remarkably healthy and alert.

But there is little room for Schadenfreude among Germany’s neighbours: the struggles of this country, and its largest party, to adjust to the post-Merkel era are coming soon to the pandemic-hit European Union.

Source: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/merkel-meets-her-match-1.4528291

The post Merkel meets her match first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

The next leader of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will be decided in mid-January, the party announced on Saturday.

The three candidates — Friedrich Merz, Armin Laschet and Norbert Röttgen — agreed to the date for the party congress, CDU general secretary Paul Ziemiak announced on Twitter. It was originally scheduled for December 4 but was delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

“Unity in the CDU is important for Germany, particularly in such difficult times,” Ziemiak said. He said the candidates hoped to be able to hold the meeting in person, but that it may take place digitally.

More details will be decided on December 14.

Friedrich Merz: Longstanding Merkel critic

The ex-leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag withdrew from frontline politics in 2009. He made a comeback in 2018 when he joined the CDU leadership race, losing narrowly to AKK. Merz recently quit his post as chairman at BlackRock, the world’s largest investment management firm, to “help the conservative party renew itself.” He appeals to the CDU’s conservative members.

Jens Spahn: Young contender backs Laschet

The 40-year-old surprised political onlookers on February 25, when he stood beside Laschet to support the state premier’s candidacy announcement. Spahn, who is openly gay, is popular in the CDU’s conservative wing. “It is about the future of the country and the future of our party,” Spahn said on his decision to back Laschet.

Armin Laschet: Affable state premier

Laschet, a journalist and former European Parliament member, has headed Germany’s most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia since 2017. The liberal-conservative is a Merkel supporter — and backed her in the 2015 refugee crisis. Another “Pizza Connection” member, he is known for being able to work with both the FDP and Greens, which may be the most likely coalition setup in the next government.

Norbert Röttgen: Potential Greens ally

Röttgen served as environment minister under Merkel from 2009-2012. He now heads the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee. He designed Germany’s energy transition plan and is seen as someone who could work with the Greens, the party polling second. He was also part of the “Pizza Connection,” a group of CDU and Greens MPs that held meetings in the ’90s and early 2000s.

Author: Rina Goldenberg

2021 elections without Merkel

Merkel led the party from 2000 to 2018, and has led the country as chancellor since 2005. She has announced her intention not to seek a fifth term as chancellor.

Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer took over party leadership in 2018 and had been presented as Merkel’s successor as chancellor candidate. However, she bowed out in February after failing to secure public confidence, leading to the new round of leadership selection.

The next party leader would have a strong chance of being picked to run for chancellor, although that is not automatic.

Germany must hold its next federal election by October 24, 2021.

Popularity boost amid pandemic

The CDU is polling well after its relatively successful handling of the pandemic. However, infection rates are soaring and voters are bracing for a second partial lockdown and a difficult winter.

Former businessman and conservative Merz, 64, is polling better than both Laschet, 59 — who is premier of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia and more liberal — and Röttgen, 55, a foreign policy expert. But the party elite favor Laschet.

The CDU is the largest party in the Bundestag and leads Germany in a coalition with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the Social Democrats (SPD).

Merz has accused “parts of the party establishment” of acting to prevent him from becoming leader.  Politics Podcast: Merkel’s Last Dance

The open accusations are unusual for the traditionally disciplined party, prompting current chairwoman Kramp-Karrenbauer to urge the candidates not to engage in “discussions that damage the CDU as a whole,” in comments to Der Spiegel news magazine.

After Saturday’s announcement, Merz said on Twitter that he “very much” welcomed the agreement: “It is a good compromise that we have agreed on today.

Laschet also declared on Twitter that the CDU needs “clarity for the next year.”

“Our joint proposal serves this purpose,” he added.

Röttgen too said he was very pleased “that we have come to a good solution for the federal party congress together.”

Olaf Scholz

Plumbing new depths with each election, the SPD decided to run a realist rather than a radical as their top candidate in 2021. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, a former mayor of Hamburg, is seen as dry and technocratic. Many in his party say the 62-year-old is unlikely to energize party activists and win their hearts.

Markus Söder

Bavaria’s 53-year-old state premier from the CDU’s more conservative Bavarian sister party, the CSU, has profited in opinion polls from his tough line in the fight against the coronavirus. “Bavaria is strong. Bavaria will grow. Bavaria is solid. Bavaria is safe. Here the world is still in order, and it will stay that way,” the former journalist said at the beginning of his tenure in 2018.

Armin Laschet

Armin Laschet, a staunch supporter of Angela Merkel, heads Germany’s most populous state. Staunch conservatives routinely underestimated the jovial 58-year-old, famous for his belief in integration and compromise. But recently, his liberal non-interventionist instincts have led to him eating his words more than once during the coronavirus crisis.

Jens Spahn

Health Minister Jens Spahn, the Christian Democrats’ rising star, has benefitted from the publicity he gained during the coronavirus pandemic. Openly gay, married, still only 40, with unusually strong English skills, Spahn is a more modern Catholic CDU politician than one could have imagined even a few years ago.

Robert Habeck

50-year-old Robert Habeck, an enthused and passionate speaker, can match the tone and energy of the climate movement in a way many German politicians cannot. But like so many with the gift of the gab, his speeches tend to meander off-topic. Habeck has a Ph.D. in philosophy and was a novelist and children’s author before entering politics almost 20 years ago.

Annalena Baerbock

At not yet 40, Annalena Baerbock has been a Green Party co-chair since 2018. A jurist with a degree in public international law from the London School of Economics, her supporters see her as a safe pair of hands with a better grasp of detail than Habeck. Her opponents point to her lack of governing or ministerial experience and her occasional gaffes in interviews.

Author: Mark Hallam, Rina Goldenberg

aw/nm (dpa, AFP, Reuters, AP)

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-angela-merkels-party-to-decide-her-successor-in-january/a-55461472 

The post Germany: Angela Merkel’s party to decide her successor in January first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

For many observers in Brussels, the twilight of Angela Merkel’s chancellorship in Berlin, which has now begun with her decision not to run again for CDU leader, comes as no surprise. After the failed EU refugee summit, political news portal Politico wrote off Angela Merkel as early as this summer. The chancellor’s assertiveness had suffered badly because of the internal quarrels in her grand coalition of CDU, CSU and SPD. “How Merkel divides the EU,” Politico wrote back then.

That was even before the state elections in Bavaria and Hesse and their severe losses for the grand coalition. But even then, it was clear that Merkel’s 2015 refugee policy course had facilitated the rise of populists in many EU countries. She was unable to enforce the solidarity she demanded on migration policies, nor a binding distribution of refugees. Only recently has she advocated closing off the EU’s external borders while setting up asylum centers in North Africa.

Read more: Opinion: Finally Angela Merkel shows leadership

Some ‘will be pleased’

Long before Italy’s current populist government was at odds with the chancellor, there were protests against her EU policies

Many in Poland, Hungary and Italy will hardly shed a tear for Merkel once she gives up the chancellorship. Many politicians in states bogged down by financial crises consider Merkel’s role in overcoming the financial and euro crisis in Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and now Italy to be wrong, calling it too rigid, too austerity-oriented.

“Of course, Europe without Angela Merkel is possible,” says Janis Emmanouilidis, head of the European Policy Center think tank. “If you have a leading role like Germany and its chancellor do, then of course there will be countries and governments who are less satisfied with what Germany does,” he told DW. As such, he explained, there will be people in Eastern and Southern Europe who will be pleased when the chancellor is gone.

Merkel underestimated the refugee issue, Matteo Salvini, Italy’s radical right-wing interior minister, told DW in an interview in September. With an eye on Sunday’s election defeat in Hesse, Salvini said the result was a “blow with a hammer” for Merkel.

Embittered after austerity gripped the country, Greek protesters didn’t pull punches on their feelings toward Merkel

Merkel’s stability ‘a great asset’

Most EU states value her, according to Emmanouilidis — not least because she is the longest-serving head of government in the bloc, and simply has the most experience in Europe. People appreciated stability in Berlin, he argues. “In times of uncertainty, stability is a great asset.”

Many politicians at the EU’s headquarters in Brussels will have to get used to the fact that “Mutti” (mommy), as Merkel is fondly called by many in her party and the coalition government, might be leaving in the foreseeable future, says Emmanouilidis. She’s been in power for 13 years, so it is difficult to imagine politics without her, but her succession will be arranged, he adds. “There will be the first day after Merkel, a time after Merkel.”

Policy expert Emmanouilidis: It’s hard to imagine Europe without Merkel, but an orderly transition will be arranged

Decisions shelved

For months now, decisions on migration, Brexit or reform of the eurozone at the EU level have been postponed — due partly to the hesitant German chancellor who was too busy with the coalition at home to make time for the EU’s urgent crises. By announcing that she will give up the party chair and not run again for chancellor in 2021, some observers see her as a lame duck.

Longtime German finance minister and current Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble, however, disputed that characterization in a DW interview, saying that “her position is constitutionally strong” and that she’s likely to stay put as chancellor for years to come.

Germany, the largest and financially strongest member state, will of course continue to shape the EU regardless. EU diplomats do not expect progress on negotiations on the EU’s common budget before the European elections in May 2019. Günther Oettinger, whom Merkel sent to Brussels as EU commissioner, is responsible for the budget.

It also remains unclear what Merkel’s retreat in installments means for Manfred Weber, a member of the CSU who hopes to be nominated as the top candidate of the European People’s Party next week, with an eye on the post of president of the EU Commission. Germany’s head of government actually has a deciding voice in the matter.

Macron and his ‘good friend’: With her departure on the horizon, the French president may seize the chance to stake out a position as ‘the new Merkel’

Macron needs a new partner

French President Emmanuel Macron is unlikely to be particularly pleased by Merkel’s possible departure from the European stage. With the help of his “good friend Angela” he planned to advance his reform agenda for the monetary union. There is bound to be a period of uncertainty, says EU expert Emmanouilidis — not what Macron was hoping for.

On the other hand, he adds, the chancellor and the government have not responded to Macron’s proposals anyway. “The question is how this will develop after Merkel’s departure,” says the think tank researcher. It could also be an opportunity for Emmanuel Macron if Merkel leaves the driver’s seat.

The chancellor today also put an end to any speculation in Brussels that she might be aiming for a position in the European Union’s top management. Observers argued she could move to Brussels next year, either as president of the EU Commission or as president of the European Council. Both posts are up for grabs again in about a year.

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, CDU

Kramp-Karrenbauer, also known as AKK, was Merkel’s choice to become general secretary of the CDU in 2018. She is reputedly Merkel’s pick as a successor as party leader. AKK headed a CDU-SPD coalition as state premier in the small southwestern state of Saarland before becoming the CDU’s general secretary. She is considered a moderate who would continue Merkel’s centrist policies.

Jens Spahn, CDU

The 38-year-old is the youngest and most overtly determined Merkel usurper. He entered the Bundestag in 2002 and became Germany’s health minister in 2018. Spahn, who is openly gay, is popular in the CDU’s conservative wing. He opposes limited dual citizenship for young foreigners, criticized attempts to loosen laws on advertising abortions and called for banning the Burqa in public.

Friedrich Merz, CDU

The former leader of the CDU/CSU grouping in the Bundestag has been out of frontline politics since leaving the Bundestag in 2009. But the 62-year-old announced his intention to replace Merkel within hours of the news that she would be stepping down. Merz reportedly fell out with Merkel after she replaced him as CDU/CSU group leader in 2002. He has been a chairman at Blackrock since 2016.

Armin Laschet, CDU

Laschet became state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia in 2017. His win marked a major defeat for Social Democrats in Germany’s 18 million-strong “coal” state. The Catholic and former journalist, 57, has been branded by his critics as “too nice for politics.” He is also one of the five deputies in the national CDU executive.

Julia Klöckner, CDU

Klöckner became agriculture minister in 2018 and has been CDU chief in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate since 2011. In 1995, before entering politics, she became Germany’s “Wine Queen.” Like Spahn, she belongs to the CDU’s conservative wing. She raised eyebrows in 2016 when she proposed an alternative plan to Merkel’s refugee policy.

Peter Altmaier, CDU

Altmeier, known as “Merkel’s bodyguard,” has supported the chancellor’s centrist policy platform on multiple fronts. Originally from Saarland, Altmaier first worked for the European Union before entering the Bundestag in 1994. The former environment minister turned economy minister is renowned for his kitchen diplomacy and being a stickler for policy detail.

Ursula von der Leyen, CDU

Von der Leyen became defense minister in 2013 after serving a stint as labor minister. Despite her reform efforts, defense spending remains stubbornly low and the military continues to suffer from widespread equipment shortages. Von der Leyen, who studied in the United States and Britain, supports a larger role for Germany abroad and improving links between national armies in the European Union.

Volker Bouffier, CDU

Volker Bouffier has been the premier of the central state of Hesse since 2010. He formerly served as the state’s interior minister and has twice “won” Big Brother awards from German data privacy advocates for propagating closer surveillance methods by police. The 66-year-old currently heads a CDU-Greens state government in Hesse and is a deputy chairperson in the national CDU executive.

Wolfgang Schäuble, CDU

Schäuble is one of the CDU’s most experienced politicians. He is well-known throughout Europe for his time as finance minister from 2009 to 2017, when he took a hard line against the Greek government. But Schäuble’s decision to give up a senior ministerial role to become president of the German parliament suggests the 75-year-old has already entered the twilight of his political career.

Markus Söder, CSU

Söder is Bavaria’s state premier and a member of the CDU’s sister party, the CSU. He is therefore ineligible to replace Merkel as CDU head. But Söder, who became premier earlier this year, could become chancellor if the CDU and CSU together nominate him as their combined candidate for the 2021 election. He has been a vocal critic of Merkel’s refugee policy and Greece’s membership of the euro.

Author: Ian P. Johnson, Alexander Pearson

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/europe-without-angela-merkel-is-possible/a-46081728

The post ‘Europe without Angela Merkel is possible’ first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

There is one man who did. Horst Seehofer, interior minister and chairman of the Christian Social Union, the Bavarian sister party of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, has managed to trigger the most serious government crisis Ms Merkel has faced as chancellor.
He wants German border guards to reject entry by asylum seekers registered in other EU countries. Ms Merkel wants a European solution and has asked him to wait until the EU summit at the end of the month.

The 46 CSU members of the Bundestag unanimously backed Mr Seehofer. One of them said Ms Merkel has failed to come up with an EU-wide deal for three years. What difference will two weeks make? The CSU, under pressure from the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany, seeks to position itself as tough on immigration ahead of the October Bavarian state elections.

Over the weekend, the situation remained tense.

The conflict could come to a climax this week. Under German law, the interior minister has executive powers that would allow him to impose a ban without approval by the chancellor. If he did, Ms Merkel could sack him, and in doing so, cause the coalition to lose its majority. There may even be new elections. The union between the parties, dating back to 1949, may end.

There is a compromise on the table that could buy a truce for a few days.

However, the unity between Ms Merkel and the CSU appears permanently fractured. This conflict is not about 14 days here or there, but about the CSU’s unilateralism versus Ms Merkel’s support for European integration. It is the essential conflict in European politics of our time.

Ms Merkel has no majority in the country for her liberal refugee policies. She opened the border to refugees in 2015 but without making sure that there was sufficient political and logistic support.

Ms Merkel’s general strategy of procrastination has reached the end of the line. Mr Seehofer wants a firm policy on immigration. And Emmanuel Macron, the French president, demands a response on the reform of the eurozone. And they both want it now.

She is also under pressure from Donald Trump. The US president is openly attacking her on two other areas where she procrastinated. One is her stated commitment to raise German defence spending to 2 per cent of economic output. The other is a reduction in Germany’s excessive trade surpluses. The CSU is now positioning itself as the German Trump party. Markus Söder, Bavarian prime minister, talked about an “end of orderly multilateralism”.

The implication is that Germany should take matters into its own hands. He might as well have said: Germany first.

Ms Merkel is not going to get a broad EU-level refugee deal now. Her best hope lies in a series of bilateral treaties with those EU countries where most of the refugees arrive — Italy, Greece and Spain.

But just think about the possible trade-offs the leaders of these countries would demand: Greek debt relief; an Italian exemption from the eurozone’s budget rules; maybe changes to the statutes of the European Central Bank. Elections are coming up in Greece. The new Italian government has a long list of demands that would drive German conservatives into a state of permanent depression. And Mariano Rajoy, Ms Merkel’s staunchest ally in the European Council, is no longer Spain’s prime minister.

There exists a theoretical pro-European outcome to this crisis. Ms Merkel could get her EU-wide refugee deal and in turn, would accept Mr Macron’s eurozone reform and whatever Italy and Greece will be demanding as well. But it is not hard to see how this could go wrong. The eurozone debate in Germany derailed a long time ago. I see no chance of Germany being able to offer the trade-offs needed for a wide-ranging refugee deal.

A more likely scenario is a strategic alliance between Mr Seehofer and Matteo Salvini, the new Italian interior minister and leader of the League. They are united in their unilateralism. Sebastian Kurz, the conservative Austrian chancellor, might join that coalition of the unwilling.

Many people have admired Ms Merkel’s pragmatism and her managerial style. But the trade-off has been a persistent failure to solve problems.

The photo from the G7 summit of world leaders in Canada, showing her in a defiant posture opposite Mr Trump, is an optical illusion. She is not standing up to anyone, not even to Mr Seehofer.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/82c5ae74-70c6-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa

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