The Associated Press – People view a flooded street in Philadelphia, Thursday, Sept. 2, 2021 in the aftermath of downpours and high winds from the remnants of Hurricane Ida that hit the area. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

NEW YORK — A stunned U.S. East Coast faced a rising death toll, surging rivers and tornado damage Thursday after the remnants of Hurricane Ida walloped the region with record-breaking rain, drowning more than 40 people in their homes and cars.

In a region that had been warned about potentially deadly flash flooding but hadn’t braced for such a blow from the no-longer-hurricane, the storm killed at least 46 people from Maryland to Connecticut on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

At least 23 people died in New Jersey, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy said. At least 13 people were killed in New York City, police said, 11 of them in flooded basement apartments, which often serve as relatively affordable homes in one of the nation’s most expensive housing markets. Suburban Westchester County reported three deaths.

Officials said at least five people died in Pennsylvania, including one killed by a falling tree and another who drowned in his car after helping his wife to escape. A Connecticut state police sergeant, Brian Mohl, perished after his cruiser was swept away. Another death was reported in Maryland.

Sophy Liu said she tried using towels and garbage bags to stop the water coming into her first-floor New York City apartment, but the flood rose to her chest in just a half hour. She roused her son from bed, put him in a life jacket and inflatable swimming ring and tried to flee, but the door stuck. She called two friends who helped her jar it loose.

“I was obviously scared, but I had to be strong for my son. I had to calm him down,” she recalled Thursday as medical examiners removed three bodies from a home down her Queens street.

In another part of Queens, water rapidly filled Deborah Torres’ first-floor apartment to her knees as her landlord frantically urged her neighbors below — among them a toddler — to get out, she said. But the water rushed in so strongly that she surmised they weren’t able to open the door. The three residents died.

“I have no words,” she said. “How can something like this happen?”

Ida’s soggy remnants merged with a storm front and soaked the Interstate 95 corridor, meteorologists said. Similar weather has followed hurricanes before, but experts said it was slightly exacerbated by climate change — warmer air holds more rain — and urban settings, where expansive pavement prevents water from seeping into the ground.

The National Hurricane Center had warned since Tuesday of the potential for “significant and life-threatening flash flooding” and major river flooding in the mid-Atlantic region and New England.

Still, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said the storm’s strength took them by surprise.

“We did not know that between 8:50 and 9:50 p.m. last night, that the heavens would literally open up and bring Niagara Falls level of water to the streets of New York,” said Hochul, a Democrat who became governor last week after former Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned.

De Blasio, also a Democrat, said he’d gotten a forecast Wednesday of 3 to 6 inches (7.5 to 15 cm) of rain for the day. The city’s Central Park ended up getting 3.15 inches in just one hour, surpassing the previous one-hour high of 1.94 inches (5 cm) during Tropical Storm Henri on Aug. 21.

Wednesday’s storm ultimately dumped over 9 inches (23 cm) of rain in parts of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, and nearly as much on New York City’s Staten Island.

In Washington, President Joe Biden assured Northeast residents that federal first responders were on the ground to help clean up.

In New York, nearly 500 vehicles were abandoned on flooded highways, garbage bobbed in streaming streets and water cascaded into the city’s subway tunnels, trapping at least 17 trains and disrupting service all day. Videos online showed riders standing on seats in swamped cars. All were safely evacuated, with police aiding 835 riders and scores of people elsewhere, including a 94-year-old man on a highway, Chief of Department Rodney Harrison said.

At one Queens development, neighbors unsuccessfully tried for an hour to save a 48-year-old woman after water broke through the glass patio door of her basement apartment, trapping her in 6 feet (2 meters) of water.

“She was screaming, ‘Help me, help me, help me!’ We all came to her aid, trying to get her out,” said the building’s assistant superintendent, Jayson Jordan, but “the thrust of the water was so strong.”

Residents said they have complained for years about flooding on another Queens street, where a woman and her 22-year-old son died in a basement apartment. Her husband and the couple’s other son were spared only because they stepped out to move a car, next-door neighbor Lisa Singh said.

“No one should have to go this way. I feel like this was 100% avoidable,” she said.

Police were still going door-to-door in flooded areas Thursday evening and didn’t have a firm number of unaccounted-for people, Harrison said.

In Elizabeth, New Jersey, rain and river flooding in an apartment complex killed four people and forced 600 from their homes, Mayor J. Christian Bollwage said.

Greg Turner, who lives elsewhere in the northern New Jersey city, said his 87-year-old mother started calling 911 when water began rising in her apartment at 8 p.m. He and his brother couldn’t get there because of the deluge.

As midnight approached, the water reached her neck, he said. Rescuers finally cut through the floor of the apartment above and pulled her to safety.

“She lost everything,” Turner said as he headed to a bank for money to buy his mother clothes and shoes.

In New Jersey’s Milford Borough, authorities said they found a man’s body in a car buried up to its hood in dirt and rocks.

The National Weather Service said the ferocious storm also spawned at least 10 tornadoes from Maryland to Massachusetts, including a 150-mph (241 kph) twister that splintered homes and toppled silos in Mullica Hill, New Jersey, south of Philadelphia.

“It just came through and ripped,” said resident Jeanine Zubrzycki, 33, who hid in her basement with her three children as their house shook and lights flickered.

“And then you could just hear people crying,” said Zubrzycki, 33, whose home was damaged but livable.

Record flooding along the Schuylkill River in Pennsylvania inundated homes, highways and commercial buildings, even as meteorologists warned that rivers likely won’t crest for a few more days. The riverside community of Manayunk remained largely under water.

The Schuyilkill reached levels not seen in over 100 years in Philadelphia, where firefighters were still getting calls about minor building collapses and people stuck in flooded cars Thursday morning. The managers of a 941-unit apartment complex near the river ordered residents to evacuate, citing “deteriorating” conditions after water rushed into the parking garage and pool areas.

In suburban Bucks County, several firefighters had to be rescued after floodwaters pinned a rescue boat against a bridge pier, state emergency management director Randy Padfield said.

Others were unable to escape the floods, including Donald Bauer, who was driving home to Perkiomenville with his wife after attending their daughter’s volleyball game at DeSales University, near Allentown.

Their SUV stalled in the water and floated into a house, breaking the back window, said Darby Bauer, who was on the phone with his parents when the engine died. Donald Bauer helped his wife, Katherine, escape out the broken window and urged her to go, their son said.

She clung to a tree and watched the rising waters carry the SUV out of sight, he said. She was rescued about an hour later and hospitalized.

Donald Bauer, a 65-year-old retired school bus driver, “had one of the biggest hearts we knew,” his son said. “He was selfless down to his last act.”

Authorities used boats to rescue people in places from North Kingstown, Rhode Island, to Frederick County, Maryland, where 10 children and a driver were pulled from a school bus.

On Sunday, Ida struck Louisiana as the fifth-strongest storm to ever hit the U.S. mainland, leaving 1 million people without power, maybe for weeks.

———

Porter reported from Elizabeth, New Jersey. Contributing were AP reporters Karen Matthews and Michael R. Sisak in New York; Seth Borenstein and Darlene Superville in Washington; Mark Pratt in Waltham, Massachusetts; in New Jersey, Maryclaire Dale in Mullica Hill, Michael Catalini and Shawn Marsh in Trenton, and Wayne Parry in Point Pleasant; in Connecticut, Dave Collins in Hartford and Pat Eaton-Robb in Columbia; and in Pennsylvania, Claudia Lauer in Philadelphia, Mark Scolforo in Harrisburg and Michael Rubinkam in northeastern Pennsylvania.

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ida-us-hurricanes-remnants-rip-northeast-79783025

The post More than 45 dead after Ida’s remnants blindside Northeast first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Iota left a trail of devastation in its wake as it tore across parts of Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this week. The storm made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on Nicaragua’s northeastern coast late Monday, hitting almost exactly the same stretch of the Caribbean coast that was devastated by Hurricane Eta two weeks ago.

Nicaragua Vice President and first lady Rosario Murillo on Wednesday raised the nation’s death toll to 16. The victims were spread across the country, swept away by swollen rivers or buried in landslides.

Rescuers searched at the site of a landslide in northern Nicaragua, where the local government confirmed four deaths and neighbors spoke of at least 16.

HURRICANE IOTA HITS NICARAGUA, SPARKS WARNING OF FLASH FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA

A fallen tree lies on the road after the passage of Hurricane Iota in Siuna, Nicaragua, Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2020. Hurricane Iota tore across Nicaragua on Tuesday, hours after roaring ashore as a Category 4 storm along almost exactly the same stretch of the Caribbean coast that was recently devastated by an equally powerful hurricane. (AP Photo/Carlos Herrera)

On Wednesday, CD-SINAPRED, which is Nicaragua’s emergency management agency, tweeted footage of the area where the landslide occurred at Macizo de Peñas Blancas, a mountain in Matagalpa province.

There were seven confirmed dead at the mountain, and the search continued, Murillo said.

Nicaragua’s army said it was sending 100 rescuers to the site. Access was complicated by downed trees blocking roads.

Monsignor Rolando José Alvarez, the Roman Catholic bishop of Matagalpa, tweeted Wednesday that priests are being sent to the Macizo de Peñas Blancas.

“At this moment our priests are mobilizing to that area and we are making ourselves available to all who are affected,” he wrote, in a translated tweet.

HURRICANE IOTA COULD SPARK HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN STORM-RAVAGED REGION, AID ORGANIZATIONS WARN

On Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said the storm was dissipating over Central America but warned that a threat from heavy rains continues.

The post Iota death toll in Nicaragua rises as rescuers search for survivors first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

As of 10 p.m. EST, the National Hurricane Center says Laura has maximum sustained winds of 150 mph with higher gusts. That’s 7 mph shy of becoming a Category 5 hurricane.

The eye remains about 45 miles off the Louisiana coast and is expected to make landfall around 1 a.m EST on Thursday.

However, the extremely strong wind may not be the most pressing issue for people caught in the storm’s path. The National Hurricane Center said Laura will bring “unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves” to areas near the Texas-Louisiana border and as far as 40 miles inland. The NHC predicts flood waters will not fully recede until several days after the storm.

The post ‘Extremely dangerous’: Hurricane Laura nears Category 5 strength as it approaches Gulf Coast first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

The National Hurricane Center said in a 5 a.m. update that Dorian had maximum sustained winds near 120 mph and was stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island.

“It’s as if we’re fighting a war with the enemy having all the weapons at its disposal,” Prime Minister Hubert Minnis told reporters.

Parts of the northern Bahamas were in the midst of a “historic tragedy” and that five people had been confirmed dead and at least 21 people had been injured and taken to hospitals, Minnis said Monday.

Minnis said that images and videos seen by officials are heartbreaking, with many homes and businesses and other buildings completely or partially destroyed.

“Dorian is still battering Grand Bahama Island and will continue for many more hours,” Minnis tweeted. “We know that there are a number of people in serious distress. We pray for their safety and will provide relief and assistance as soon as possible.”

Although it had been downgraded, Dorian was expected to remain a perilously powerful hurricane for the next couple of days, with “devastating” winds and a “life-threatening” storm surge, the center said.

The storm was forecast to travel “dangerously close” to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening, the center said. It would then move “very near” the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday, the center added.

The Latest on Dorian:

• The storm had maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and was stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island, in a “stationary” position, the hurricane center said at 5 a.m. Tuesday. Isolated rainfall of over 30 inches in northwestern Bahamas could cause “life-threatening flash floods.”
• At least five people have died in the Abaco Islands, Bahamian officials say. A woman told Eyewitness News Bahamas that her 8-year-old grandson was killed in a possible drowning.
• Officials say Dorian is set to come “dangerously close” to Florida’s east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over North Carolina’s coast late Thursday.
• Several airports including Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach and Orlando international airports in Florida have shut down their operations. As of 6 a.m. Tuesday, some 1,381 flights within, out and into the U.S. had been canceled, according to FlightAware, an aviation data company. Amtrak also canceled some of its East Coast service.
• More than 70 nursing homes and assisted living facilities have evacuated along Florida’s east coast. Many of the state’s toll roads are suspended, and several ports have closed. In addition, more than 85 shelters are open statewide.
• Six counties east of Interstate 95 in Georgia were ordered to evacuate, Gov. Brian Kemp says.

The National Hurricane Center warned that a tornado or two was possible near the east coast of Florida through Tuesday night. The risk will then shift to coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday into Thursday.

Millions of people along the southeastern coast of the United States are bracing for Dorian’s effects in the coming days as meteorologists warn the storm’s actual trajectory is uncertain. President Donald Trump has approved emergency declarations for Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia. Virginia Gov. The governors of North Carolina and Virginia have also declared states of emergency.

Southport, North Carolina, Mayor J.V. Dove said that forecasts show the storm traveling up the coast and not making landfall.

“Still, we are expecting and do expect heavy rainfall, perhaps 10 inches or more, plus tropical-storm-force winds, and we’re preparing for that,” Dove said on MSNBC early Tuesday. A state of emergency would be in effect at 7 a.m.

“One thing I’ve learned about hurricanes is that a lot of people are very afraid of the winds, but most of our trouble comes from the flooding, the heavy rains that are caused by the hurricanes themselves,” the mayor said.

The National Weather Service in Miami tweeted early Tuesday that coastal flooding had been reported in the city, and urged people to not drive through flooded roadways. The weather service in Jacksonville said fast-moving rain bands would produce brief but torrential downpours and up to 30-mph wind gusts.

On Sunday, the governors of South Carolina and Georgia ordered at least 1 million people to evacuate their coasts beginning Monday.

Authorities in Florida ordered mandatory evacuations in some vulnerable coastal areas. In Florida, more than 120 shelters are filling up with people who’ve decided its too dangerous to risk staying at home.

Areas in the United States with populations of more than 3.5 million were under hurricane warnings, and another 9 million were under tropical storm warnings early Tuesday, according to the weather service.

A hurricane warning was in place for Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to Ponte Vedra Beach near Jacksonville as well as for the northwestern Bahamas.

A hurricane watch extended from Deerfield Beach north of Fort Lauderdale to Jupiter Inlet, Florida, as well as north of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the South Santee River in South Carolina.

A storm surge warning covered a stretch of the coast from Lantana, Florida, to the Savannah River. A tropical storm warning was issued for Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet and north of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound in Georgia.

A storm surge and tropical storm watch covered other areas of Florida and South Carolina.

Phil Helsel
Phil Helsel is a reporter for NBC News.

Saphora Smith
Saphora Smith is a London-based reporter for NBC News Digital.

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/hurricane-dorian-weakens-category-3-it-camps-out-over-devastated-n1049011

The post Hurricane Dorian weakens to Category 3 as it camps out over devastated Bahamas first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Hurricane Michael is slashing Cuba and is forecast to be a “dangerous major hurricane” when it smacks the US Gulf Coast on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said.

The forecast indicates Michael may be a Category 3 hurricane — with winds from 111 to 129 mph — when it strikes.

“Life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast regardless of the storm’s exact track or intensity,” the center said. “Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.”

Floridians scurried to prepare after Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency for 26 counties.

“Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of the Carolinas through Thursday,” the hurricane center said.

Michael has undergone a period of “rapid Intensification” — defined as an increase of sustained winds of 35 mph in a 24-hour period. The storm went from 40 mph on Sunday to 75 mph on Monday and is expected to undergo rapid intensification again in the next 24 hours.

The storm now has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. A Category 1 hurricane has sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph.

At 2 p.m. ET, Michael was centered about 145 miles northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and 20 miles southwest of the western tip of Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

Track the storm

The storm is aiming at a region that stretches from Mobile, Alabama, through the Florida Panhandle and into the Big Bend area of northern Florida.

A hurricane watch has been declared for the Alabama-Florida border to the Suwannee River in Florida. Tropical storm and storm surge watches have been issued from the Mississippi-Alabama border to Tampa Bay.

As forecast, Michael would be the first Category 3 or higher hurricane to hit the Panhandle since Hurricane Dennis in 2005. Monday, it became the seventh hurricane of 2018 in the Atlantic Basin. On average, the Atlantic would have about five hurricanes by October 8.

‘Everybody’s got to get ready’

Scott warned that Michael could reach land as a Category 2 hurricane, with winds in excess of 100 mph.

“This storm will be life-threatening and extremely dangerous,” Scott said at a press briefing.

“This storm has the potential to bring devastating impacts to communities across the Panhandle and Big Bend and every family must be prepared.”

Scott activated 500 National Guard troops in advance of the storm.

“Everybody’s got to get ready. Don’t take a chance,” he said. “We’re going to get storm surge, we have wind, we have a chance of flooding, we have a significant chance of tornadoes.”

The governor declared a state of emergency for Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, Jackson, Calhoun, Gulf, Gadsden, Liberty, Franklin, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, Madison, Taylor, Hamilton, Suwannee, Lafayette, Dixie, Columbia, Gilchrist, Levy and Citrus counties.

A mandatory evacuation order has been issued for coastal areas of Gulf County, according to a news release from the Port St. Joe Police Department.

Florida State University campuses in Tallahassee and Panama City plan to close Tuesday through Friday.

In western Cuba, hurricane conditions expected

In the Caribbean, a hurricane warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. Tropical storm warnings are posted for the Isle of Youth in Cuba and the coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel.

“Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of western Cuba this afternoon, where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today,” the center said.

“Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.”

The storm was expected to brush the westernmost province of Pinar Del Rio, where most of Cuba’s famed cigar tobacco is grown, before continuing north to the United States.

According to an alert published by the Cuban Civil Defense, meteorologists warned affected residents that they could experience hurricane-force winds. Officials also alerted residents living on the coast of the possibility of flooding caused by the storm.

Source: https://www.fox4now.com/homepage-showcase/florida-declares-state-of-emergency-in-26-counties-as-tropical-storm-michael-approaches

The post Hurricane Michael will be dangerous when it hits US coast Wednesday first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Warnings and watches lit up across the Caribbean on Monday as Hurricane Maria gained strength and roared toward islands already hobbled by the carnage of Hurricane Irma.

Maria, which grew to a Category 3 hurricane Monday morning, had maximum sustained winds of of 120 mph at 11 a.m. ET. It is still too early to determine whether the storm will impact the U.S. East Coast and any threat would not be until early next week, but a strike on Florida is still a possibility.

“We may luck out and it turns north before reaching Florida,” AccuWeather meteorologist Dave Samuhel said. “Unfortunately, it looks like blocking high pressure could force it into Florida. Definitely something we are watching.”

The center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands late Monday and then slam through the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, the hurricane center said. By later Tuesday, Maria should have winds of 150 mph, making it a Category 4 hurricane.

“This storm promises to be catastrophic for our island,” said Ernesto Morales of the National Weather Service in San Juan. “All of Puerto Rico will experience hurricane-force winds.”

But first, the U.S. Virgin Islands likely will face “at least a glancing blow if not a full-on landfall” late Tuesday or early Wednesday, said Dave Samuhel, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather.

On St. John’s, the smallest of the U.S. Virgin Islands, people lined up to flee the storm. Irma blasted across the island Sept. 7, a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 185 mph. Homes and businesses were blown apart and power is expected to be out for months.

Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic could see Maria’s wrath on Wednesday. Puerto Rico President Ricardo Rossello said the government has prepared hundreds of shelters capable of housing more than 100,000 evacuees if necessary.

A potential impact on the East Coast will depend on steering currents in the upper atmosphere over the western Atlantic and the eastern U.S. that can’t be determined more than a week in advance, according to the Weather Channel.

Hurricane Jose threatens East Coast

Meanwhile, Hurricane Jose’s 75 mph sustained winds will continue to bring rip currents and rough surf to the U.S. East Coast over the next several days.

Tropical-storm warnings have been posted along the southeastern New England coast, including most of the Rhode Island and Massachusetts coastline.

“Coastlines from North Carolina to southern New England are in for a long period of rough surf and an increasing risk of beach erosion,” said Weather Underground meteorologist Bob Henson. “If Jose were to make landfall, it could end up producing significant surge even as a post-tropical storm,” he said.

Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday, the hurricane center said. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

The hurricane center said the center of Jose was forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Monday, east of the Delmarva peninsula overnight and Tuesday and east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday.

Contributing: Rick Jervis; The Associated Press

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/09/18/hurricane-maria-grows-stronger-marches-toward-irma-battered-islands/676350001/

The post Hurricane Maria grows to Category-3 major hurricane, ‘promises to be catastrophic’ first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

The monster storm in the Atlantic just broke the record for the longest-lived storm with winds of 185 miles per hour or greater, beating out Super Typhoon Haiyan for the title. Such records date back to the dawn of the satellite era in 1966.

The record-shattering storm is churning toward the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands on Thursday, where it threatens to bring a devastating 15 to 20-foot storm surge above normal tide levels. Irma — which is a Category 5 storm as of Thursday afternoon — has its sights set on the extremely vulnerable Southeast U.S., however, with the destruction it has wrought in the northern Lesser Antilles and Caribbean serving as an example of what it is capable of.

The current forecast track takes Irma across the southeast Bahamas on Thursday to a position south-southeast of Florida on Friday, before turning the storm sharply to the north-northeast on Saturday, in response to winds flowing around a dip in the jet stream across the eastern U.S.

Where that turn occurs is going to prove pivotal to the forecast, and more importantly to people’s lives in southern Florida, since a later turn means a landfalling storm in the Sunshine State, whereas an early turn could see the worst of the storm’s winds and waves remaining offshore.

Miami, in particular, could see a devastating hit from Hurricane Irma. The last major hurricane to hit there was Hurricane Andrew in 1992. That storm, also a Category 5, wiped out communities to the south of the city, but spared the priciest real estate along Miami Beach and in downtown due to its compact wind field and track across the southern part of Miami-Dade County.

Hurricane Irma is a larger and more powerful storm than Andrew was, and it could become the storm that current residents of Miami, now a booming gateway to Latin America, have thought would never come.

Computer model projections and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center show that Hurricane Irma is likely to come near or over Miami and Ft. Lauderdale on Saturday night into Sunday. The exact path of the storm’s center will be crucially important, since the most powerful winds and most damaging storm surge flooding will be generated by the right side, or eastern flank of the storm.

If a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane Irma were to make landfall in southern Florida and track just to the west of Miami, it would bring destructive, onshore winds to luxury high-rise condo buildings situated at the water’s edge, flooding them from below, and shredding them from the top down.

Tropical storm force winds are expected to spread over Florida from south to north beginning on Saturday morning, with hurricane force winds of 75 miles per hour or greater arriving soon after that. The storm has an unusually expansive wind field, making the track of the center of the storm less relevant than usual, since even an offshore track by 20 miles or so would still bring a punishing onslaught of high winds to the eastern coast of the state.

While Florida has the strictest building codes in the country, they’ve never been tested in a city the size of Miami, and most residents of the city have never been through a powerful hurricane before.

In recent years, a real estate boom has pushed expensive property closer and closer to the ocean’s edge, making the area extremely vulnerable to storm surge flooding, which is worsened by global warming-related sea level rise.

The population of Miami-Dade County, an east coast county that includes Miami, shot up by around 700,000 people since 1992, an increase of about 35 percent. The population in Broward County, which borders Dade County to the north, increased from 1.3 million in 1992 to 1.9 million in 2016, a change of 46 percent.

Few of these new arrivals have ever experienced a Category 4 or 5 hurricane, since the last Category 4 storm to hit Florida was Charley, in 2004. That storm made landfall on the other side of the state, just north of Tampa, sparing the Miami area from its strongest winds.

Since the year 2000, more than 2 million new homes have been built in Florida, with about half of them constructed in the region from Tampa to Miami, according to Steve Bowen, a meteorologist at the insurance company Aon Benfield.

In Miami, many of the new homes have been in the form of expensive high-rise condominiums. High-rise buildings can be death traps in intense hurricanes, since they expose the upper floors to far stronger winds than the lower levels, in some cases by a whole Saffir-Simpson category difference, meaning that top floors could experience a Category 5 storm while lower levels see Category 4 wind speeds.

“Given that the region from the I-4 Corridor (Tampa & Orlando) to Miami has seen more than one million new properties in less than two decades highlights that there is simply more risk of things being damaged,” Bowen said in a Twitter message.

“There are further concerns that many residents in this part of the state are new and have never experienced a major hurricane before,” he said.

“The sad reality is that increased exposure, increased wealth and major hurricane strength storms are a bad combination — and leads to a likelihood of greater future losses.”

According to Climate Central, a nonprofit climate research and communications group, 85,000 people in Miami-Dade County alone live below 3 feet above sea level. That area includes a whopping $22 billion in property. To put this in context, in 2005, county recorded a flood that reached 5.8 feet above sea level. And a storm surge from Hurricane Irma could conceivably produce a flood far higher than that.

In a report released in 2016, Climate Central found that Miami-Dade County has already seen about 5 inches of sea level rise during the past 34 years, which means storm surges have a higher floor to launch from, like a basketball player dunking a ball from a rising court.

Florida as a whole is ground zero for America’s coming reckoning with sea level rise and repetitive, astronomically expensive coastal flood disasters.

“Irma looks like it could be a human-made catastrophe in many dimensions,” said Ben Strauss, vice president for sea level rise and climate impacts at Climate Central. “We have built a great metropolitan region in the middle of a hurricane high risk and flood zone, and have been continued to build it up even as sea levels rise because of human activity.”

“At the same time,” he said, “climate change is pointing us to more intense hurricanes.”

Climate Central’s research has shown that across Florida a staggering $145 billion in property value, and 300,000 homes, sits on land that’s less than 3 feet above sea level. This jumps to $544 billion and 1.4 million homes constructed on land under 6 feet. Storm surge flooding could easily exceed these heights above normal tide levels.

Broader East Coast Threat
Hurricane Irma is also a growing threat to the rest of the Florida coastline, particularly the east coast, as well as coastal Georgia and the Carolinas. In some ways, recent computer model guidance shows a track resembling Hurricane Matthew, which never made landfall in Florida last year, but damaged Cape Canaveral and areas near Jacksonville as the storm’s eye wall, where a hurricane’s highest winds are located, wobbled ashore.

Had the center of that storm moved about 30 miles to the west, the damage would have been far more severe. It’s unclear if Florida will get lucky a second year in a row, however.

The storm is currently projected to move into northeastern coastal Georgia and southern South Carolina by early next week. These areas are also vulnerable to storm surge flooding, which is exacerbated by sea level rise. Savannah, Georgia, in particular is susceptible to such a hazard, as is Charleston, South Carolina.

However, according to Strauss, Miami stands out for its damage potential from Hurricane Irma.

“Every low-lying coastal city on the US Gulf and Atlantic coasts is in its own way vulnerable. What really distinguishes South Florida is its really high concentration of population and economic activity and value. We’re pouring resources into a place that faces significant annual risks from hurricanes today, and significant long-term risks from sea level rise.”

Sea level rise is not a distant threat for Charleston and Miami. It has already caused both cities to regularly experience coastal flooding on fair weather days during astronomically high tides.

However, Hurricane Irma will be anything but a fair weather day.

Source: http://mashable.com/2017/09/07/hurricane-irma-worst-nightmare-for-miami-charleston/#dOy_uH.12EqF

The post With Irma, Miami and Charleston face their potential nightmare hurricane scenarios first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Irma brought strong winds and flooding to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands last night. Its dangerous eye passed north of Puerto Rico’s main island — possibly sparing the area from the worst of the 185-mph winds that wreaked horrible destruction in St. Martin, Anguilla and Barbuda on Wednesday.

“We are in a state of siege,” Daniel Gibbs resident of the French territorial council for St. Martin and St. Barts, tells Radio Caraibes International.

Gibbs said that “95 percent of the territory has been destroyed,” echoing the assessment of Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne, who told CNN Barbuda is now “barely habitable” after Irma’s eye hit the island early Wednesday.

Floodwaters have swamped cars and houses in Puerto Rico, where seven rivers are now running above their flood levels, according to the National Weather Service office in San Juan, Puerto Rico’s capital.

After moving past Puerto Rico, Irma is following the same track past Hispaniola, passing north of the island that is home to the Dominican Republic and Haiti. As of 8 a.m. ET, its eye was about 110 miles north of Punta Cana, on the easternmost tip of the island.

Irma is sending hurricane-force winds outward up to 50 miles from its center; tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 185 miles.

The human toll and damages from Irma are still being realized, in part because of the wreckage and debris the hurricane has left in its wake and in part due to communications networks being brought down by powerful winds and flying debris.

Eight people were killed and dozens wounded in Saint Martin, France’s Gerard Collomb said Thursday. The island is divided between French and Dutch administrations.

On Barbuda, a toddler died during the storm, Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda Gaston Browne told ABS TV/Radio Thursday.

There are reports of two more deaths — one in Anguilla and another in Puerto Rico, where local media relay a police report that an elderly woman died while being moved to a storm shelter.

The hurricane is now moving west-northwest at 17 mph. The storm is expected to move near or over the Turks and Caicos and parts of the Bahamas and later Thursday, likely hitting parts of Cuba on Friday.

Irma’s path is now projected to pivot north as it nears Florida. The timing of that turn is crucial to millions of people in the state, some of whom are already under mandatory evacuation orders. Those orders took effect in Key West on Wednesday; they now also cover barrier islands, including Miami Beach.

Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez’s order covers around 150,000 people out of the 2.7 million in the county.

There has been a run on gasoline, water, and batteries, NPR’s Greg Allen reports. And while not everyone plans to leave, “the spectacle of what happened to Houston after Harvey, and the memories of Wilma in 2005 and Andrew 25 years ago, in 1992, are really on everyone’s minds. I’ve heard many people talk about Andrew.”

In downtown Miami, Greg adds, officials who are preparing for Irma are worried about more than 20 tall construction cranes, especially ones that tower over residential areas.

“They’re designed just to withstand winds up to 145 mph,” Greg says. “But right now, Irma’s winds are far higher … so a city official warned residents who live nearby those cranes to maybe think about leaving their buildings.”

Irma has slightly weakened — its sustained winds are now 180 mph instead of 185 mph — but it’s likely to remain a Category 5 storm for most of the next two days, the National Hurricane Center says.

“Hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula later this morning,” the center says, stating that the threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida continues to increase.

Here’s what NHC senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven told The Associated Press on Thursday:

“Basically, the entire Florida Peninsula is under threat from this, as is portions of the southeastern U.S. further to the north, because if the storm does miss Florida, it would hit more toward the southeastern U.S. coastal states.”

Tropical-storm-force winds will arrive in southern Florida and the Keys on Saturday, the hurricane center predicts.

As Irma moves west, its storm surge poses a dangerous threat. The Turks and Caicos and parts of the southeastern and central Bahamas could see from 15 to 20 feet of coastal water above normal levels. Cuba’s northern coast could get a surge of 5 to 10 feet.

After maintaining 185-mph winds, a tight eye and a well-organized system for more than 24 hours, the powerful storm finally showed a hint of weakness overnight, with the hurricane center saying at 5 a.m. Thursday that Irma had “become a little less organized” with clouds in its eye a central convection that was “somewhat ragged.”

As Irma brought havoc to the northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, two new hurricanes were christened in the Atlantic region: Jose, which is a less powerful storm that is tracking behind Irma, and Katia, which is off Mexico’s southern state of Veracruz.

Jose has gained strength and now has maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, the hurricane center says. The storm is projected to become a major hurricane Friday, and its winds are expected to top 125 mph over the next 36 hours before it begins to weaken.

As Jose moves west, it will take a more northward approach than Irma. But before it veers north of Puerto Rico, the hurricane could add to the miseries Irma brought to St. Martin, Barbuda and other areas. Jose is predicted to remain a major hurricane (meaning its winds are at least 111 mph) when it nears those islands early Saturday.

In the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center says Katia is heading west-southwest and likely make landfall on Mexico’s coast late Friday or early Saturday.

Source: http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/07/549121378/hurricane-irma-blasts-past-puerto-rico-with-180-mph-winds-risk-rises-for-florida

The post Hurricane Irma Blasts Past Puerto Rico With 180-MPH Winds; Risk Rises For Florida first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

The National Hurricane Center said Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes had spotted Tropical Storm Harvey strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico, with about 60-mile-per-hour winds more than 300 miles off the southern coast of Texas early on Thursday. A hurricane warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected, has been in effect from Port Mansfield in far southern Texas to Matagorda, about 100 miles southwest of Houston.

But later in the day, the planes spotted the system strengthening until it became a hurricane, with 80 m.p.h. winds, the hurricane center said.

Parts of Louisiana and the lower Mississippi Valley were also in the path of hurricane conditions from the storm system, the hurricane center said. Gov. John Bel Edwards of Louisiana said on Thursday Hurricane Harvey was expected to hit Corpus Christi early on Saturday as a Category 3 hurricane, but its outer bands of rain could be felt earlier. The impact on Louisiana was expected early next week, he said.

“It is getting more and more serious as time goes by,” Mr. Edwards said in a news conference. He said the weather service has told him there was some possibility that the hurricane could make landfall in Texas, re-enter the Gulf before moving eastward to Louisiana, he said.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/24/us/harvey-storm-hurricane-texas.html

The post Hurricane Harvey Strengthens and Heads for Texas first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

The National Hurricane Center said Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes had spotted Tropical Storm Harvey strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico, with about 60-mile-per-hour winds more than 300 miles off the southern coast of Texas early on Thursday. A hurricane warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected, had been in effect from Port Mansfield in far southern Texas to Matagorda, about 100 miles southwest of Houston.

But later in the day, the planes spotted the system strengthening until it became a hurricane, with 80 m.p.h. winds, the hurricane center said.

In an update on Thursdsay evening, the center said that Hurricane Harvey would make landfall Friday night or early Saturday.

Parts of Louisiana and the lower Mississippi Valley were also in the path of hurricane conditions from the storm system, the hurricane center said. Gov. John Bel Edwards of Louisiana said on Thursday Hurricane Harvey was expected to hit Corpus Christi early on Saturday as a Category 3 hurricane, but its outer bands of rain could be felt earlier. The impact on Louisiana was expected early next week, he said.

“It is getting more and more serious as time goes by,” Mr. Edwards said in a news conference. He said the weather service has told him there was some possibility that the hurricane could make landfall in Texas, re-enter the Gulf before moving eastward to Louisiana, he said.

Hurricane watches were also in place on Thursday, as were tropical storm warnings, in other parts of the state, mostly along the coast, the National Hurricane Center said.

The movement of the hurricane was expected to slow down while over land, meaning it could drop more rain. “This is going to play out over the next week or so,” Mr. Edwards said. “This is a very serious storm.”

In some areas, the storm could unleash heavy rain of at least two feet of accumulation that could cause “flooding catastrophe” through the weekend, a meteorologist said.

Texas and Louisiana have been bracing for the storm to affect populated areas for several days after the National Hurricane Center predicted this week that it could make landfall, affecting Corpus Christi, Tex., Houston and New Orleans, among other cities.

When the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issues a hurricane warning through its hurricane center, it means conditions including sustained winds of 74 m.p.h. or higher are expected in the next 36 hours, allowing for preparations by state authorities and residents.

On Thursday, Texas escalated its readiness to prepare for the storm, saying that even as a tropical depression, Harvey poses a threat of imminent disaster, including severe flooding, storm surge and damaging winds, in at least 30 counties.

Gov. Greg Abbott announced he was pre-emptively declaring a state of disaster for those counties, a formal declaration that allows Texas to quickly deploy resources for any emergency. He encouraged Texans to get ready.

“As the State Operations Center increases its readiness levels, I also encourage Texans in the storm’s path to make their own emergency preparations, heed warnings from local officials, and avoid high water areas,” he said on Wednesday.

Some organizations voluntarily ordered evacuations. At Texas A&M University in Corpus Christi, students were told to evacuate by Thursday and avoid parts of Southeast Texas, including the Victoria, Houston and Galveston areas.

The police in Aransas Pass, TX., about 20 miles northeast of Corpus Christi, ordered a mandatory evacuation and said city crews would shut off city water on Friday. Officials in Calhoun County and San Patricio County also issued mandatory evacuation orders.

The Houston Independent School District — the largest school district in Texas — said it was canceling classes on Monday because of the threat of inclement weather.

And late Thursday afternoon, President Trump weighed in on Twitter, urging people to plan ahead Hurricane Harvey intensifies.

If the storm were to reach New Orleans, the impact could be particularly troubling. The city is still recovering from flooding this month after a severe thunderstorm made much of the city impassable when a turbine that powered pumping systems failed. In its latest update, the city said it expected up to 10 inches of rain and potential flooding starting late Sunday and potentially lasting through midweek.

When NOAA announced the start of hurricane season in June, there were predictions of as many as five major hurricanes. A hurricane this weekend would be the first test of its kind for the leadership of Brock Long, the new head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which is responsible for coordinating the government’s relief efforts after natural disasters.

The federal agency has yet to face a major disaster under Mr. Long’s direction, an initiation that has come amid concerns over some of the budget cuts proposed by President Trump.

Matt Stevens contributed reporting.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/24/us/harvey-storm-hurricane-texas.html

The post Hurricane Harvey Strengthens and Heads for Texas first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.