Office for National Statistics (UK) - Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association

Will UK inflation hit the highest level in a decade?

Matthew Rocco, Laura Pitel, Valentina Romei — Wed, 17 Nov 2021 10:39:27 +0000

Consumer price growth will reach an annual pace of 3.9% in October, a pick-up from the 3.1% registered in September

UK inflation is forecast to hit its highest rate in a decade in October as supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices and a tight labour market push the cost of consumer goods sharply higher.

Consumer price growth will reach an annual pace of 3.9 per cent in October, a pick-up from the 3.1 per cent registered in September, according to a Refinitiv survey of economists. George Buckley, economist at Nomura, said ahead of a report from the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday that he expects inflation will climb further to 4.5 per cent in November and to reach a peak of 5 per cent in the spring of next year, in line with Bank of England expectations.

After the spring, the BoE expects inflation to fall as the impact of higher oil and gas prices fades, the demand for goods cools and some of the raw material shortages ease.

However, BoE governor Andrew Bailey said that the “crucial” element to judge to what extent inflation would be temporary, and thus the scale and the pace of the bank’s response, was the evolution of the labour market following the end of the furlough scheme in September. Valentina Romei

Will US retail sales accelerate into the holiday season?
US retail sales are expected to have grown at a swifter pace in October than the previous month, as the industry prepares for what is expected to be a strong holiday season while navigating supply chain bottlenecks and worker shortages.

Many Americans are getting their Christmas shopping done early this year in hopes of avoiding out-of-stock warnings closer to the holiday. Coupled with robust demand for Halloween items, the early holiday rush has probably given sales an autumn boost.

Sales are on track to increase 1.4 per cent from the previous month, which would mark a rise from the 0.7 per cent September rise, according to a Refinitiv poll of economists ahead of the release of the monthly figures on Tuesday.

The retail industry is scrambling to meet resurgent demand because congestion at ports and a shortage of truck drivers have created delays in the supply chain, raising the prospect that gifts will be hard to find.

Mahir Rasheed, US economist at Oxford Economics, said tighter inventories – particularly for clothing and accessories – pose the “biggest risk to holiday spending, given that consumers may find fewer items available and may shift consumption to services or withhold spending until their preferred items are in stock.”

Still, the National Retail Federation forecast that sales during the holiday season will hit a new record high. The trade group expects an 8.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent increase year on year, after sales jumped 8.2 per cent in 2020.

That would indicate that spending will remain resilient against a big jump in consumer prices, thanks in part to strong savings and an increase in household wealth fuelled by property values. Matthew Rocco

Will Turkey’s central bank risk another rate cut?
The backdrop for the next meeting of Turkey’s monetary policy committee is not auspicious. Annual inflation is running at around 20 per cent. The lira, already down 25 per cent this year, is teetering on the brink of the symbolic threshold of 10 to the dollar. Global inflation fears have led other developed economies and emerging markets to either raise interest rates – or signal that rate rises are on their way.

Yet analysts overwhelmingly expect the Turkish central bank to cut rates for the third month in a row on Thursday. The bank, which has faced heavy pressure from president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a vehement opponent of high interest rates – is likely to slash its benchmark rate by 1 percentage point to 15 per cent, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. Such a move risks heaping further pressure on the lira and accelerating inflation in a country that is heavily reliant on imported energy and goods.

Per Hammarlund, chief emerging markets strategist at the Swedish bank SEB, says that the sensible thing to do would be to pause the easing cycle and allow inflation to fall before resuming. But he expects the bank to cut regardless. In that scenario, he said, “there is only one way for the [LIRA]to go and that is lower.” He added: “The only question is how fast it will weaken.”

A dissenting voice was HSBC, which suggested that the central bank could opt for a temporary pause in its rate cutting cycle given the sharp lira depreciation over the past week. It added, however, that it remained convinced that the central bank has “tolerance for further lira weakness” and will continue to cut rates in December and beyond. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2021.

Source: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/will-uk-inflation-hit-the-highest-level-in-a-decade-1.4728371

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The post Will UK inflation hit the highest level in a decade? first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Is This The First Glimmer Of Hope In The UK Fight Against Coronavirus?

Paul Waugh — Mon, 30 Mar 2020 05:12:13 +0000

PA Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance during a media briefing in Downing Street, London, on coronavirus.

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Game for a graph?

It was carefully caveated, it was measured, it was eminently sensible. But for the very first time since these Downing Street press conferences started, chief scientist Sir Patrick Vallance seemed to have a real note of hope in his voice as he detailed the latest Covid-19 statistics.‌

Vallance’s graph, which showed the number of hospital admissions for those with the virus, was of course not good news, in the conventional sense. The NHS is dealing with roughly a thousand more people every day who present with symptoms of this awful disease.

Some 9,000 people have now been hospitalized with coronavirus and that is undoubtedly “a very difficult number to deal with”, as he was at pains to stress. With survivors graphically describing how they felt like they were ‘drowning’, it’s a terrifying ordeal, the spectre of death never far away.

Yet Vallance also pointed out the 1,000-a-day number was “not an acceleration” and in fact was “a bit more stable than it has been”. Moreover, he added: “I expect the number of people coming every day to be about that”, though it may go up ‘a little bit’.

Stabilizing the rate of increase in infections would be invaluable in buying the time the NHS needs to increase its critical care beds to deal with those growing numbers. If, and it is naturally a big ‘if’ right now, the number of hospital admissions remains stable then there could be grounds for cautious optimism.‌

Vallance himself said that the figures “may suggest that we’re already beginning to see some effect”. Given that we have only been in ‘lockdown’ for a week, and given the lag in response times, was he suggesting that even pre-lockdown measures (advice about handwashing and staying 6ft away from others) are having an impact? And will the tougher ‘stay at home’ edicts since last Monday really now flatten that curve?

Vallance may have dampened some optimism when he said (of the hospital numbers) that “we expect this to get worse over the next few weeks because there’s a lag phase”. If the absolute number gets worse that’s one thing, but if there is an acceleration then that’s altogether more worrying.

There’s good reason to be cautious. The number of ‘cases’ who have tested positive so far is not exactly meaningless but without widespread testing, it is always going to be a massive underestimate of the total number of real cases.‌

And on deaths recorded, those are only for deaths in hospital. We will find out tomorrow from the Office for National Statistics how many deaths have been ‘at home’ rather than in hospital. As with opinion polls, what matters is not a few possible outliers but the overall trend over a week or weeks. But still, the fact that the number of deaths was 260 on Saturday, 209 on Sunday and 180 today, may again spark hope in some.

Another aspect of the press conference that would have been welcome to many was Dominic Raab’s urging the police to use ‘common sense’ in their own reaction to the lockdown. Amid reports of one force trying to stop people from buying chocolate Easter eggs, that was a reminder that the coronavirus curve can only be suppressed with public support.

Today, Boris Johnson distanced himself from Margaret Thatcher’s infamous ‘no such thing as society’ image. He is probably also keen to avoid that dreadful John Major line that led many to see him as a heartless robot on the topic of unemployment and inflation: “If it isn’t hurting, it isn’t working”.‌

Even without any ‘acceleration’, coronavirus is hurting many. We’ll find out in the next two weeks if the Johnson-Vallance strategy is working. And if today’s first ember of hope can glow a bit brighter.

Quote Of The Day

“One thing I think the coronavirus crisis has already proved is that there really is such a thing as society.”‌

Boris Johnson

Monday Cheat Sheet

Foreign secretary Dominic Raab announced a new £75m fund to charter flights to repatriate Britons from “priority countries” overseas.

The UK death toll rose to 1,408, based on those who had died in hospitals on 5pm on Sunday.

The number of former NHS staff who have returned to help has reached 20,000, Boris Johnson revealed in an online video.‌

Home abortions in England, Scotland and Wales are to be made easier during the coronavirus outbreak, the Department of Health has confirmed.

Dominic Cummings, the PM’s chief adviser, is self-isolating at home after suffering coronavirus symptoms.

Tory MP Bob Stewart has been accused of fuelling xenophobia after a Facebook post in which he called coronavirus a “foul Chinese illness”.

The Hungarian Parliament passed a bill to give prime minister Viktor Orbán sweeping new powers without any time limit, including the suspension of all elections.

What I’m Reading

Damned If They Do, Damned If They Don’t – Prospect

Is AOC Distancing Herself From Bernie? – Politico

Wuhan Residents Doubt Death Toll – Radio Free Asia

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The post Is This The First Glimmer Of Hope In The UK Fight Against Coronavirus? first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.