MOSCOW—Whatever the message the US hoped to send Russia with its carefully orchestrated missile barrage Friday on alleged chemical warfare sites in Syria, it doesn’t seem to have changed any minds in the Kremlin.

Moscow remains convinced that the US has no coherent endgame for Syria, and its continued occupation of about a third of Syrian territory, together with its allies, has no purpose other than to play the role of spoiler, analysts here say. And in the aftermath of the missile strikes, Moscow will continue to back the increasingly successful military campaign to restore all of Syria to control by Bashar al-Assad’s central government.

But while Russia regard the US as a trespasser in the region militarily, it still needs Washington’s help to end the conflict through diplomacy. The Kremlin continues to pursue a peace process excluding the United States and its allies that they initiated together with Iran and Turkey last year, but experts say it is stumbling. That likely means that a return to the previous Geneva process, which involved the West directly, will be necessary.

“It’s becoming clear that there can be no workable settlement for Syria without direct agreement and cooperation between the US and Russia,” says Vladimir Sotnikov, an independent Middle East expert.

Hassan Ammar/AP

Avoiding a military conflict

Analysts say that Moscow was serious when it hinted that it would strike back against US warships in the Mediterranean or other launch platforms if any Russian lives were endangered by US missiles. But despite Donald Trump’s tweets – “get ready Russia, because they will be coming” – they say that the exchange of explosive declarations last week turned out to be mostly theater.

Kremlin-connected analysts say that US and Russian military “deconfliction” teams that have been quietly coordinating on the ground in Syria for months worked together to ensure that Russian air defenses would be switched off that night and no cruise missile trajectories came near any Russians.

 Sochi, Soviets, and czars: How much do you know about Russia?

“Russia’s official reaction is to denounce these strikes as illegal and wrong,” says Pavel Zolotaryev, deputy director of the official Institute of USA-Canada Studies (ISKRAN). “They came just before a team of inspectors from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons [OPCW] was to begin its work at the site of the alleged chemical weapons attack in Douma. The fact that US leaders weren’t ready to wait for inspectors to do their job indicates they wanted to make a military statement, and didn’t want it to be clouded by whatever the inspectors might find.

“Luckily, the Pentagon and Russian Ministry of Defense were in close contact, and made certain there would be no complications. So, the strikes had a mostly political and symbolic character. Yet they have introduced new tensions into the US-Russia relationship, which was already very bad,” he adds.

A top Russian military official is now suggesting that Moscow may equip Syria with its second-to-latest anti-aircraft system, the S-300, to deter future strikes by the US and its allies. “A few years ago, taking into account a pressing request from some of our Western partners, we abandoned the supplies of the S-300 missile systems to Syria. Considering the latest developments, we deem it possible to get back to discussing this issue,” said Lt. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi of the Russian general staff.

The (non-)threat of sanctions

This fresh source of tensions comes amid a widening storm of tensions between Russia and the West. The row with Britain over Russia’s alleged involvement in the nerve-agent poisoning of former double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter continues to boil. Mutual rounds of diplomatic expulsions have slashed the physical infrastructure of relations to the bone, leaving Russia and the US in particular almost incapable of carrying out normal contacts.

And the US, which earlier this month slapped sanctions on a list of Putin-connected “oligarchs,” floated the idea of introducing more, though the White House has taken it off the table for now. The earlier round of sanctions caused the ruble to slide and the Russian stock market to tumble. New measures may hurt even more wealthy Russians active in the West and, ironically, actually help the Kremlin by compelling them to bring their money home to Russia.

The method of squeezing tycoons who are close to Putin in the hope they will force him to change course, seems to ignore the reality that Putin’s main accomplishment after coming to power almost two decades ago was to restore the primacy of the state. It was tried in the first round of anti-Russia sanctions following the annexation of Crimea four years ago and has yet to show any results.

“We’ve gotten used to living with sanctions,” says Mr. Sotnikov. Russia’s economy, which slipped into recession following the first wave of sanctions and plunging oil prices four years ago, racked up 2 percent growth in 2017 and seems on track for at least that much this year. “There are areas of solid business cooperation between the US and Russia, which go on despite all these tensions, and it would be a shame if they were harmed.”

Mukhtar Kholdorbekov/Reuters

A diplomatic role for Washington

The larger question about Syria is whether Russia and the US can cooperate in the endgame and bring a lasting political settlement to the brutal, seven-year-long civil war. Experts say that the Russian-led “Astana Process,” so named for the Kazakhstan capital where the talks have been held, is not going well.

“The military situation in Syria is far better than it was a year ago. But, despite these meetings with Turkey and Iran, a political settlement looks no closer,” says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a leading Moscow-based foreign policy journal. “Russia’s relationship with these two partners, Turkey and Iran, is very difficult, as are the relations between them. Putin puts a lot of effort into trying to keep his relations with [Turkish president Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan on track, but it’s clearly very hard to do.”

Turkey issued a statement of support for last weekend’s US missile strikes, while Iran appears disappointed with Russia’s failure to deter them, Mr. Lukyanov says.

That’s partially why the US and other Western nations will need to be brought back in to the process, to balance the demands of all the regional players. But that remains difficult while Russia and the US each continue their military campaigns.

“Things are certainly more complicated in the wake of these strikes. Russia is now worried that they may be repeated at any moment,” says Sotnikov. “But communication is still going on between us and the Americans in Syria – it’s actually quite effective – and so there is hope that this dismal picture can be changed for the better.”

Source: https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2018/0417/Russia-wants-US-military-out-of-Syria.-But-it-still-needs-US-to-help-bring-peace

The post Russia wants US military out of Syria. But it still needs US to help bring peace. first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

US President Donald Trump threatened conflict with nuclear-armed Russia on Wednesday, as Washington and Moscow engaged in military brinksmanship over a suspected chemical weapons attack outside Damascus.

“Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!,” Trump tweeted.

The United States, Britain and France have threatened to take military action against Syria over its alleged use of chemical weapons in Douma, the last rebel enclave in eastern Ghouta outside Damascus. A US-led attack on Syria could inadvertently hit Russian or Iranian troops stationed throughout the country.

Read more: Emmanuel Macron broaches possible French airstrikes on Syria

Russia threatens retaliation 

Earlier Wednesday, Russia’s ambassador to Lebanon warned that any attack on Syria would be met with a military response.

“If there is a strike by the Americans then … the missiles will be downed and even the sources from which the missiles were fired,” said Alexander Zasypkin, adding that the two sides should avoid such a situation and negotiate.

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in response to Trump’s threats that the US should target “terrorists, rather than the legitimate government” in Syria.

“Smart rockets should be aimed at terrorists, rather than the legitimate government, which has for several years been fighting international terrorism on its territory,” she said in a Facebook post.

Russia has multiple military assets in Syria, including its S-400 anti-missile system.

In a sign of what response may come, Syrian air defenses shot down five of eight suspected Israeli missiles fired at a military base on Monday.  The suspected Israeli attack was unrelated to Douma.

Read more: ‘America will not engage in a huge military entanglement’

Syria lambasts ‘reckless’ US threat

The Syrian government condemned Trump’s statement and reiterated its accusation that the US sponsors terrorism.

“We are not surprised by this reckless escalation from a regime like the one in the United States, which has and continues to sponsor terrorism in Syria,” said the Syrian Foreign Ministry.

Washington’s threats, it added, “show [it] lacks not only principles and values but also wisdom and logic and that in itself endangers international peace and security.”

The ministry also said the US’s accusation against the Syrian government for being responsible for Saturday’s chemical weapons attack was “a flimsy and unsubstantiated excuse to target Syria.”

WHO says Douma victims’ ‘symptoms consistent’ with chemicals

Russia has urged the United States to show restraint and said there was no evidence the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad used a banned chemical agent in Douma.

Moscow and Damascus have blamed rebels in Douma of staging an attack to draw an international response. Controlled by the Army of Islam, Douma is the last rebel-held enclave in eastern Ghouta after the regime backed by Russia and Iran have retaken more than 90 percent of the Damascus suburb since launching an offensive on February 20.

After the weekend attack, Army of Islam fighters and their families agreed to leave Douma to a Turkish-controlled zone in the north of the country.

An estimated 500 people show signs of exposure to toxic chemicals after attack in Douma outside the Syrian capital over the weekend, the World Health Organization said Wednesday.

“In particular, there were signs of severe irritation of mucous membranes, respiratory failure and disruption to central nervous systems of those exposed,” WHO said in a statement, citing reports from its medical sources. “More than 70 people sheltering in basements have reportedly died, with 43 of those deaths related to symptoms consistent with exposure to highly toxic chemicals.”

Analysts say the attack in Douma appears to bear the signs of a chlorine attack.

Assad has been blamed for previous chemical attacks, including by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) for a sarin-like attack last April on the rebel-held town of Khan Sheikhoun in northwestern Syria.

The attack in Khan Sheikhoun prompted the United States to launch cruise missile strikes against an airbase from where the sarin attack was suspected to have been launched from.

Stalled at UN

On the diplomatic front, the US and Russia on Tuesday blocked each other’s UN Security Council resolutions calling for investigations into the alleged chemical weapons attack.

The OPCW plans to send a team to Douma to determine if a chemical weapon was used.

However, the chemical weapons watchdog does not have authority to assign blame and a full investigation can take months.

Source: http://www.dw.com/en/donald-trump-tells-russia-missiles-fired-at-syria-will-be-coming/a-43340472

The post Donald Trump tells Russia missiles fired at Syria ‘will be coming’ first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

More than 500 men, women and children have been killed since last week in the eastern enclave, where activists over the weekend reported a suspected poison gas attack.

According to 60 Minutes this past Sunday night, the Assad regime has usedinternationally banned chemical agents nearly 200 times throughout the civil war. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the world’s leading chemical weapons watchdog, opened an investigation on Sunday into attacks in Ghouta to determine whether banned munitions had been used.

The unspeakable suffering we are witnessing in Ghouta is the result of a conscious strategy of besiegement, systematic blocking of humanitarian aid, and the illegal destruction of civilian infrastructure – hospitals, schools and kindergartens have all been bombed into the ground.

If this story sounds familiar, that is because we have heard it all before. We have seen it in the ruins of Aleppo, on the killing fields of Cambodia, the poisoned ghost towns in Iraqi Kurdistan, the sieges of Sarajevo and Srebrenica, and the desert death camps of Darfur.

“Never again,” the shell-shocked international community pledged — again, and again – and again — in the wake of these atrocities. And yet the same horrors are now being inflicted on the people of Ghouta and we are reacting with much the same impotence.

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC), corrupted by the malign agendas of Russia and China with no regard for human suffering, has long been reduced to issuing empty mantras ranging from being “concerned” to “very concerned” and, lately, “gravely concerned.”

But their condemnation of crimes committed against innocent civilians does not feed the children on the streets of Ghouta. It does not keep warm the families that must now sleep in the rubble of their homes, or help pull the injured from under the ruins of the city.

Look closely, if you spent the last decade pontificating about US imperialism in the Middle East, sharing uncritically the absurd spectacle of conspiracy theories brought to you by Russia Today, Iranian Press TV and other state controlled outlets with hostile agendas.

Syria is a place where more people died than in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya combined – it’s a lawless Wild Wild West of international affairs where the Assads, Khameneins, Putins and Erdogans of this world kill at their pleasure.

The UNSC called for the 30-day truce in all of Syria on Saturday to allow aid deliveries and medical evacuations in the war-torn regions. But Iran and the Syrian regime continued attacks on Damascus suburbs held by “terrorists” the Iranian military chief of staff said on Sunday.

Everyone is now a terrorist. Every hospital bombed a secret weapons storage. Every school destroyed a recruitment center. Every use of poisonous gas a false flag operation by the rebels.

The industrial-scale killing machinery in Syria is the unhappy consequence of American isolationism and non-intervention, with the result that, eight years down the line, the murderous dictator is neither dead nor imprisoned, but still gassing his own people.

The Assad regime has recaptured large swathes of Syrian territory. The mullahs have turned the country into a permanent Iranian military base. And Russia is dictating the way things are going.

America isn’t perfect. Far from it. But it’s still an unrivaled beacon of light in the darkness of international relations that do not offer a more just and moral superpower to fill its place.

Eight years into the civil war, Syria has turned into the greatest humanitarian catastrophe of our time. It is too late for the people of Ghouta. They will follow the restless souls of Rwanda, Bosnia, and Kurdistan in a long line of victims abandoned by the international community. All red lines have been crossed.

Source: http://www.thetower.org/5992-the-tragedy-of-syria-all-red-lines-have-been-crossed/

The post The Tragedy of Syria: All Red Lines Have Been Crossed first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.