Friction between Tehran and Ankara in Iraq is rooted in balance-of-power considerations and their quest for greater influence.

Over the past several weeks, Iraq has become a major point of friction between Iran and Turkey. On February 27, Iranian Ambassador to Iraq Iraj Masjedi criticized Turkey’s military intervention in Iraq, calling on Ankara to withdraw its troops from Iraq. “We do not accept at all, be it Turkey or any other country, to intervene in Iraq militarily or advance or have a military presence in Iraq,” Masjedi said in an interview with Kurdish outlet Rudaw. He further emphasized that “the security of Iraq should be maintained by Iraqis.” Turkey’s envoy to Iraq Fatih Yıldız hit back on Twitter, saying that his Iranian counterpart “would be the last person to lecture Turkey about respecting borders of Iraq.” Following the quarrel, Tehran and Ankara summoned each other’s ambassadors to formally express their grievances.

The diplomatic row came amid an increased Turkish military presence in northern Iraq with the pretext of fighting against Kurdish militants belonging to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The group is a designated terrorist organization in Turkey and several other countries. On February 10, Ankara conducted a military operation in the Gara Mountains of Iraq’s Duhok province to free a number of Turkish hostages held by the PKK. After the operation failed to achieve the designated goal and thirteen hostages were killed, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened that Turkey would expand its anti-PKK campaign to Sinjar, a strategic region located on Iraq’s border with Syria.

Following Erdogan’s threat to invade Sinjar, Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) of Iraq deployed thousands of troops in three brigades to Sinjar to counter what they perceive as Ankara’s intention to occupy parts of their country. The move was widely seen by Turkish media as the PMF coming to the PKK’s rescue and an indication of Iran’s support for the Kurdish militants. As such, one might argue that divergent Iranian and Turkish approaches toward the Kurdish militants in Iraq are the main factor behind the recent tensions. However, such an argument would ignore the fact that as recently as June 2020, Tehran and Ankara launched simultaneous air and artillery strikes against Kurdish insurgents in northern Iraq, sparking speculations that they have coordinated their military moves in the Arab country. What has changed in less than a year that has prompted contention between the two sides over—apparently—the same issue?

In the big picture, friction between Tehran and Ankara in Iraq is rooted in balance-of-power considerations and their quest for greater influence. Over the past couple of years, Iranian leaders have been under the impression that their influence in Iraq is declining and an anti-Iranian atmosphere is dominating the Arab country. Widespread public protests in Iraq in late 2019 against Iran’s role was the first major sign of this downward spiral and the assassination of Iran’s Quds Force Commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani dealt the most severe blow to Tehran’s influence.

To exacerbate the problems even further, in May 2020, Iran-backed Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi was replaced with Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, a more independent Iraqi politician who is trying to maintain a balanced relationship with Iran and Iraq’s other neighbors, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey. By then, Ankara had already reached an agreement with Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil to purge the PKK in Sinjar. Iran’s exclusion from the trilateral agreement made it suspicious of Turkey’s plans for Iraq. Tehran is especially worried that Ankara might use its anti-Kurdish campaign to establish a long-term military presence in Sinjar, as it previously did in northern Syria and Iraq’s Dohuk province. Considering Iraq and Syria are the main constituents of its “strategic depth,” Iran has a zero-sum approach to these countries. This means that Tehran is basically unwilling to share its perceived sphere of strategic influence with rivals unless they could build on rapidly changing power equations to impose themselves on the ground, like the case of the U.S. military presence in Iraq or the Turkish occupation of northern Syria.

Yet this is not the whole story. Turkey is also Iran’s main economic competitor in the Iraqi market. In 2019, Turkey exported $10.2 billion worth of goods to Iraq, slightly surpassing Iran’s $9.6 billion export over the same period. Turkish companies have also invested about $25 billion in nine hundred construction and infrastructural projects – including energy, water, and petrochemical industries—in various Iraqi cities. There’s also growing competition between Tehran and Ankara in Iraq’s electricity industry, which used to be dominated by Iranian companies. Besides, Turkey considers its geographical location at the juncture of Eastern Europe and West Asia as a unique geo-economic advantage, increasingly seeking to monopolize transit routes in the neighboring areas. In this vein, through expanding economic ties with Iraq, Turkey wants to block Iran’s potential energy transit to Europe via Iraq and Syria, become the main hub for energy exports to Europe, and open a southward corridor to Jordan and Saudi Arabia to transit Turkish and European goods to the Arab markets of the Persian Gulf.

As such, although the two non-Arab regional powers have historically tried to define their interests and zones of influence in the Arab world in a way to avoid friction and direct rivalry, when it comes to Syria and Iraq, their long-term interests are basically in conflict with each other. Meanwhile, following the rise of anti-Iran sentiments in Iraq and Soleimani’s assassination, Turkish leaders might have concluded that the time is ripe for rolling back Iranian influence and restoring what they perceive as Turkey’s historical role in Iraq. That said, Turkey does not appear to be seeking confrontation with Iran in Iraq but rather is looking to exploit the country’s current power vacuum to strengthen its strategic leverage over its southern neighbors in the long run.

Ankara’s unwillingness to confront Tehran in or over Iraq notwithstanding, the current trajectory involves the risk of an unwanted clash. If Syria is any example, unrelenting Iranian and Turkish approaches toward their actual or perceived zones of influence could easily lead to an escalation, should one of the parties decide to challenge the other’s interests. In February 2020, Iran and Turkey were on the verge of a direct confrontation in Idlib, after the Iran-backed militias were for the first time deployed to the northwestern Syrian province to participate in the fight against Turkish-backed rebels. If a potential Turkish campaign in Sinjar results in a confrontation between Turkey and Iran-backed PMF groups, it’s hard to assume that Iran will sit idly by and let the Turks go ahead as they want. As such, although Tehran shares Ankara’s concerns over Kurdish insurgency in northern Iraq, its fears over the long-term implications of an extended Turkish military campaign has put the two sides at odds over the situation in Sinjar.

Vali Golmohammadi, Ph.D., is an assistant professor of International Relations at Tarbiat Modares University in Tehran and a former visiting scholar at Bilkent University in Ankara. He is also a senior fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies (CMESS). On Twitter: @VGolmohammadi

Hamidreza Azizi, Ph.D., is an Alexander von Humboldt fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. He was an assistant professor of regional studies at Shahid Beheshti University (2016-2020) and a guest lecturer at the department of regional studies at the University of Tehran (2016-2018). On Twitter: @HamidRezaAz

Image: Reuters.

Source: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/are-iran-and-turkey-collision-course-iraq-179902

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Illustrative: Iran says it successfully tested the Hoveizeh cruise missile on February 2, 2019 (Screen grab via Tasnim)

Israel is readying for a direct cruise missile or drone strike by Tehran in response to recent attacks on Iranian regional proxies which have been attributed to the Jewish state, Army Radio reported Tuesday evening.

Unlike ballistic missiles, which usually fly through a high arc on the way to the target, cruise missiles and drones fly at low altitude, making them harder to detect.

The report cited anonymous “Israeli sources,” who said the IDF was already on high alert for the possibility and that the security cabinet will convene for an “unplanned” meeting next Tuesday against a backdrop of tensions with the Islamic Republic.

This would be the second time this month that the high-level security cabinet has convened. On October 6, its members gathered amid cryptic warnings by Israeli leaders of a growing security threat from Iran. That meeting lasted for nearly six hours.

During the meeting, ministers discussed a proposal, being pushed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for a NIS 1 billion ($290 million) project to boost Israel’s air defenses that would place particular focus on defending the country against cruise missile attacks.

A suicide drone developed by Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, October 26, 2016 (AFP)

Channel 12 at the time cited anonymous officials who believed Tehran may have publicized information about an allegedly foiled “Israel-Arab” plot to assassinate General Qassem Soleimani, the head of the elite Quds Force in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as a pretense to attack Israel.

Both Netanyahu and President Reuven Rivlin have mentioned crucial security needs in recent days as they called for the formation of a broad unity government after the September 17 elections.

Iran appears to have been building up its drone activities and attacks in recent months — in August, Israeli fighter jets carried out airstrikes in Syria to thwart a planned attack on Israel by Iran-backed fighters using armed drones, the Israel Defense Forces said. The Israeli military said its strike targeted operatives from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force as well as Shiite militias who had been planning on sending “kamikaze” attack drones into Israel armed with explosives.

In September, a cruise missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities knocked out half the kingdom’s oil production. Although Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility, the US, Britain, France, Germany, and Saudi Arabia have blamed Iran of being behind the attack.

Channel 12 News reported that defense officials who have studied the weapons used in the attack on the Saudi facilities concluded that a similar assault by Iran on Israel if it came, would likely be launched from western Iraq, where there is a strong presence of Iran-backed militias.

Iran regularly threatens Israel, viewing the country as a powerful enemy allied with the United States and Sunni countries in the region against Tehran and its nuclear ambitions.

Israel has also thwarted Iranian operations in neighboring Syria where its fighters and those of Iranian proxy Hezbollah have been fighting alongside forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad since 2011.

In this photo from August 12, 2019, plumes of smoke rise after an explosion at a military base southwest of Baghdad, Iraq. (AP Photo/Loay Hameed)

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Israel has vowed to prevent Iran’s regional proxy militias from obtaining advanced weapons to use against the Jewish state and has carried out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria that it says were to prevent delivery of weapons and to stop the Iranian military entrenchment in that country.

Late last month, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi announced that investigations have determined the recent spate of airstrikes targeting powerful Iranian-backed militias in Iraq were carried out by Israel.

The Qatari-funded TV network also quoted him as saying that “many indicators show that no one wants war in the region except for Israel,” according to a translation by the Reuters news agency.

A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces declined to comment on the statements from the Iraqi premier, saying “these are reports from foreign media and we do not comment on them.”

Since July, there have been at least nine strikes both inside Iraq and across the border in Syria, targeting the Iran-backed militias, known collectively as the Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF.

Leaders of the powerful Shiite paramilitary group have repeatedly blamed Israel and by extension its US ally, which maintains more than 5,000 troops in Iraq.

Israel has not confirmed its involvement in the attacks, though Netanyahu has hinted at the possibility that it has struck in Iraq.

Earlier this month, a senior Iranian lawmaker blamed Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia for an alleged attack on an oil tanker off the Saudi coast and said he would take the complaint to the UN.

This photo taken on Sunday, Oct. 13, 2019, and released by the official news agency of the Iranian Oil Ministry, SHANA, shows the scene of damage by two missiles that allegedly struck the Iranian oil tanker Sabiti, at the Red Sea. (SHANA via AP)

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Tehran says the Iranian-flagged Sabiti tanker was hit by two separate explosions off the Red Sea port of Jeddah.

Hassan Beigi, a member of the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy commission, claimed without evidence that the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia were alleging the Islamic State jihadist group or Afghanistan’s Taliban for an alleged attack on an oil tanker last week off the Saudi coast and said he would take the complaint to the UN.

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Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-bracing-for-direct-cruise-missile-or-drone-attack-by-iran/

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WASHINGTON DC (Kurdistan 24) – Two Iraqi Shiite groups have threatened the US and Israel following airstrikes Sunday night on a militia position in the Syrian town of Albu Kamal, close to the border with Iraq.

The attack may have killed as many as 52 fighters from the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of groups that fought the Islamic State (IS), following its 2014 assault on Iraq.

The PMF first blamed the US for Sunday’s strike, but the US firmly denied any involvement, and CNN, along with Kurdistan 24, reported that Israel was likely responsible.

An Iranian-backed group, Kata’ib Hizbollah, was stationed in Albu Kamal. It was established, with Iranian backing, during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) and attacked US forces then. Consequently, the US designated it a terrorist organization.

In last month’s elections—the results of which many Iraqis charge were rigged by Tehran—Kata’ib Hizbollah won 15 parliamentary seats.

On Tuesday, Kata’ib Hizbollah threatened, “The crime of the bombing” at Albu Kamal “will reopen the confrontation with the Zionist entity and the US schemes.”

The PMF are formally part of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Kata’ib Hizbollah was joined by another Iranian-backed militia, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, which demanded that Baghdad take “decisive action” against the “international and regional” plans that threaten Iraq and Syria—implying that Baghdad should tell US forces to leave, now that IS has been largely defeated in Iraq.

As the militias issued their threats and demands, however, the US denied any knowledge of key details of Sunday’s attack, suggesting it was not relevant to the US mission in Iraq.

Col. Sean Ryan, Spokesperson for the US-led Coalition against IS, formally known as Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR), speaking to Pentagon reporters by teleconference from Baghdad on Tuesday, was questioned about the strike on Albu Kamal.

Asked if Israel had carried out the attack, he replied, “I can’t comment,” adding that it was not the Coalition or the Iraqis, “and that’s really all we’re concerned about at this point.”

“It bothers me that a coalition spokesman can say something like that,” Paul Davis, a former Pentagon analyst, retired from the US Army, told Kurdistan 24, because the question of “who was behind the attack is relevant to your mission.”

When asked about possible retaliation for Sunday’s strike, Ryan responded that given the good US relations with the ISF, “I don’t think that’s ever going to be a concern”—as if there were not an extended history of Iranian-backed groups attacking US troops, whether in Lebanon in the 1980s or in Iraq during OIF—by some of the same groups that are now part of the ISF!

In February, Iraq’s Interior Ministry—headed by Qasim al-Araji, a senior member of the Badr Organization, another Iranian-backed group—announced that Iraq would soon open the border crossing with Syria at Albu Kamal.

The Middle East Institute’s “IranObserved Project” reported that Albu Kamal is a “strategic prize for Iran and its allies,” which had succeeded in capturing the border crossing ahead of a US-backed force.

“For the first time, Tehran will have land access to the Mediterranean coast and Beirut,” an online publication of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed, describing it as “an unprecedented development in Iran’s several-thousand-year history,” the MEI reported,

That would have been extremely troubling to Israel, of course, and would explain Sunday’s strike.

Ryan also sought to minimize the significance of the attack by claiming the force in Albu Kamal was not sent there by Baghdad.

Kurdistan 24 pressed as to who, then, had sent those forces there? Under whose authority were they operating?

Ryan provided no answer. They were Iraqi forces, he acknowledged, but once they crossed the border, they were “no longer under ISF control or direction.”

Michael Pregent, an Iraq expert at the Hudson Institute and formerly an adviser to US commanders during OIF, expressed his concern about the US position.

Pregent noted that the head of Kata’ib Hizbollah, Abu Mehdi al Muhandis, “is a designated terrorist,” yet he “controls the PMF budget.”

“He does not answer” to Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi, but “to Qasim Soleimani,” head of Iran’s IRGC-Quds Force.

“The US should not go out of its way to downplay the role of Iran and should admonish Baghdad for its support for IRGC-QF militias,” Pregent said.

Kurdistan 24 subsequently asked the State Department, if it was reasonable to understand the strike on Albu Kamal as a “warning to Baghdad” about Iran’s use of “its territory and personnel” in ways that Israel regards as threatening. The State Department Spokesperson, however, simply deferred to the Defense Department and the non-answers it had given earlier that day.

Source: http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/5c8883f6-be16-4ebf-95f5-a17c7fdf63dd

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BAGHDAD –  Now that they’ve helped vanquish the Islamic State from much of Iraq, a battle-hardened militia with close ties to Iran may be training its sights on the remaining U.S.-led coalition troops scattered across the country.

At least that’s the thinking among some in the ranks of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a roughly 100,000-thousand-member force that has fought both with and against Americans in Iraq.

“America should only be here for embassy, any military presence and we will target them,” Saif Ali, a 37-year-old member of the PMF’s Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba paramilitary — based in the southern Iraq governorate of Basra — told Fox News. “I fought the Americans after 2003, and the British in southern Iraq, and I am happy about that. I don’t hate the American people, only hate the U.S. military, and I have killed many of them.”

Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) fighting ISIS across Iraq.  (Courtesy PMF Media Center)

Ali is one of thousands of PMF members who also took advantage of Iran-supplied weapons and ammunition to take the lives of hundreds of U.S. troops during the insurgency that followed the invasion of Iraq.

Rayan al-Kildani, the 32-year-old leader of the PMF’s Babylon Brigades, an Iraqi Christian militia, noted that he, too, got his start fighting the Americans post-2003 — allegedly after learning how to use weapons from action-oriented TV shows and movies. And although he has relatives in the U.S. and even visited a few years ago, he said that he threatened to attack U.S. intelligence personnel he encountered after the Mosul battle and ultimately wants to see American forces gone.

Rayan al-Kildani, leader of the PMF’s Babylon Brigade.  (Fox News/Hollie McKay)

The PMF was created soon after the June 2014 ISIS invasion in response to a fatwa, an edict issued by an Islamic leader, from Shiite cleric Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Hosseini Sistani. He called on all able-bodied males to fight the brutal Sunni insurgency. The PMF was initially an unofficial umbrella organization comprising some 40 militia groups. But, given their strong fighting skills and popularity among locals for their prominent role in combating ISIS, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi folded them into the Baghdad government’s security forces in November 2016.

Today, most PMF fighters draw salaries from the Baghdad government. But Mohand al-Eqqaby, the PMF spokesman, said at least another 50,000 unpaid fighters are on the ground and — for now at least — have no intention of fighting U.S. troops.

But he still wants the Americans gone.

“Our stand is clear,” Eqqaby asserted. “America was not there at the beginning of this ISIS crisis when we needed them most. We are strong now, and as long as we are fighting, Iraq does not need Americans on our land.”

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Mohand al-Eqqaby, leader of the PMF’s media wing.  (Fox News/Hollie McKay)

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The PMF has also expanded its influence beyond the battlefield and into the political sphere ahead of Iraq’s  parliamentary elections in May. Many militia leaders are expected to win crucial seats and challenge Abadi,  who is considered a reliable U.S. partner bound to keeping Iranian influence at bay.

Anxieties are growing over the PMF’s increasing influence and the notion that many take their orders not from Iraq’s commander in chief, but rather from Iran’s leadership.

Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) fighting ISIS across Iraq.  (Courtesy PMF Media Center )

“Our goal is not to be employers of the Iraqi government, but to fight in Syria and al-Quds (Arabic for Jerusalem), and we will await orders from our religious men,” said Hashim al-Maihi, a 44-year-old former policeman who is now a leader in the “League of the Righteous People” battalion, referred to as Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, in the PMF. He said that he does not draw a Baghdad salary, and that it was his duty to fight American occupation in Iraq and later ISIS.

“My rifle is standing up and I am ready to protect any city,” he said. “In my house, I raise pigeons as a symbol of peace in Iraq, but my dream is not to see Americans in Iraq.”

The PMF’s objective to disperse its military across the Middle East –as scores have defied Baghdad’s orders and gone to fight for Iranian interests alongside Syria’s army and Lebanon’s Hezbollah –is troubling to some U.S. officials.

Mike Pompeo, CIA chief, recently wrote a letter of caution to Iran’s top military man and spymaster, Qassam Soleimani, warning that the U.S will hold him and his country accountable for any “attacks on American interests” inside Iraq that stem from his influence.

Last month, CIA chief Mike Pompeo revealed he had sent a letter to Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassam Soleimani, warning that forces under Iran’s tutelage may attack U.S. troops. Pompeo added that the U.S. would hold him and his country accountable for “any attacks on American interests.”

“Now that ISIS is not much of a threat, the PMF is likely to plan attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq that would be carried out as soon as Tehran gives the orders,” surmised James Phillips, senior research fellow for Middle Eastern affairs at the Heritage Foundation. “This is a major concern, given that tensions between Iran and the U.S. are likely to grow in the future.”

PMF fighters work alongside Iraqi Forces, prompting concern they may access U.S-issued equipment.  (Courtesy PMF Media Center)

But an American spokesperson for Operation Inherent Resolve — this is the mission name given to the coalition tasked with defeating ISIS in Iraq and Syria — told Fox News officials  “do not anticipate a PMF aggression toward coalition troops.”

“There are certain factions within the PMF that may cause concern, but the PMF as a whole is not considered a threat to coalition forces,” the representative noted.

While concerns have been routinely raised that the PMF is able to access U.S. weapons issued to the Iraqi Army — including several fighters who claimed to have “borrowed” Iraqi Federal Police uniforms to participate in battles that they were prohibited from joining — American military leaders say they continue to work with the Iraq leadership to “maintain accountability of all equipment.”

And there are at least some PMF members who vow never to fight the Americans.

“On the contrary, I stand with them because at that time we were liberated and they removed the tyranny of Saddam Hussein’s regime,” said Abbas Naji, a 23-year-old member also of the PMF’s Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq. He left the Iraqi army to join the PMF after the ISIS onslaught in 2014 – he was disgusted that members of his army “ran away” and allowed ISIS in, and had become partially blind.

“I hope that Americans stay in Iraq and we can learn from them on how make sure Iraq moves forward to be a prosperous nation,” he said. “I want us to join the developed countries.”

Hollie McKay has been a FoxNews.com staff reporter since 2007. She has reported extensively from the Middle East on the rise and fall of terrorist groups such as ISIS in Iraq. Follow her on twitter at @holliesmckay

Source:  http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/12/21/after-isis-defeat-iran-backed-fighters-in-iraq-vow-to-drive-out-us-troops.html

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