Negotiations for the agreement took nearly seven years, and there were intense discussions between the EU Commission and top Chinese officials throughout 2020. In the last days of the year, a decision was made to go ahead with the agreement. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, acting as EU term president, and Chinese President Xi reportedly pressed to close the agreement. But there is an important nuance here: the agreement has not been actually been signed yet, as the negotiations took place via video conferencing. And for the agreement to come into force, ratification by all EU member states as well as the consent of the EU Parliament is necessary.

It is clear that this process will be quite painful and there is a good chance that it could fail. In fact, it is even possible to go further and claim that Germany is betting on this possibility.

So why has Germany followed such a path? There are three reasons: First of all, Germany is heavily dependent on its trade with China. It was its trade with China that saved Germany from the global financial crisis in 2008. Moreover, trade with China is still highly significant to Germany today, with trade volumes of around 250 billion dollars. Secondly, Germany and to a large extent France, have been particularly uncomfortable with the European Union being treated as a second-tier power by the United States under the Trump administration.  Brexit has been the last straw in this context. The message given to the United States with the agreement was that Europe is far more important than the United States thought and that the EU cannot be ignored. Finally, with the CAI agreement, China has also been warned about the importance of Europe within the scope of great power competition.

At this point, it is necessary to draw attention to the race between France and Germany in order to become the dominant power in the EU after Brexit. With Brexit, France has become the EU’s sole nuclear power and its most powerful one in terms of conventional forces as well. France’s historical approach to European autonomy is a well-known phenomenon. Trump’s unilateral policies and his refusal to take Europe into account enabled France to draw Germany to its side within the scope of European autonomy. However, with the election of Biden, Germany is expected to return to its traditional approach in the context of transatlantic relations. This has been made clear in speeches by the German Defense Minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Kramp-Karrenbauer emphasized that an autonomous capacity in military and political matters can strengthen Europe’s hand within the context of existing transatlantic ties with the United States. She also added that Europe could not provide nuclear deterrence without the US nuclear umbrella. The main reason for this approach is to prevent France from taking the helm of the European Union in the absence of the balance provided by the United Kingdom. The struggle of these two powers to gain the leadership of Europe lies at the root of many problems in European history. It was the presence of the United States in the continent after the Second World War that kept these two powers from any conflict. The US presence has been also the most essential factor in Europe’s welfare today. For this reason, the US presence in the continent and the continuation of the transatlantic relationship have been of vital importance for Germany.

Against France’s clear military superiority, Germany has undoubted economic superiority. The economic locomotive of the European Union, so to speak, is Germany. Germany needs China and Asian economies to maintain this superiority. In this context, it does not hesitate to oppose any attempt that will jeopardize its commercial relations with China. In this respect, the attempts of the United States to cut off trade relations with China altogether cannot find any support from Germany. However, Germany also looks for ways to balance the assertive and aggressive attitude of Xi Jinping’s China. For this reason, it wants to use its relationship with the United States as leverage against China as well.

When all these elements come together, it is an indisputable fact that Germany is in a very delicate position. In fact, the CAI agreement itself is a consequence created by such a balance. Germany forced the conclusion of such an agreement for the sake of not spoiling its relations with China, and it has restored confidence in China. On the other hand, the message was given to the United States, especially to the incoming Biden administration, that Europe is an important power that cannot be ignored. Nobody will be able to blame Germany if the agreement is not implemented due to an EU member state refusing to ratify it. This means that Europe, and Germany, hold some serious leverage against the United States as well as China.

Looking ahead, both great powers will have to play the game by taking Europe into account. In fact, the European Union, and especially Germany, could gain a crucial position in playing a balancing role that will keep the great power rivalry between the US and China from getting out of hand. Hopefully, the result will be a more balanced and stable global order. Such will be one of the most important tasks of the new administrations in the United States and Germany in the coming period.

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com or any institutions with which the authors are associated.

Source: https://www.eurasiareview.com/12012021-eu-china-investment-agreement-casts-europe-as-a-great-power-oped/

The post EU-China Investment Agreement Casts Europe As A Great Power – OpEd first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

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“It is clear the repeated missteps by you and your organization in responding to the pandemic have been extremely costly for the world,” he wrote in the letter to Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. “The only way forward for the World Health Organization is if it can actually demonstrate independence from China.”

PELOSI CALLS TRUMP ‘MORBIDLY OBESE’

The White House has insisted that Beijing downplayed the virus’ threat in December, which led to the subsequent outbreak. China has denied the charge.

Trump announced in April that the U.S. would halt funding to the organization. He said at the time that his administration would undertake a 60-to-90 day investigation into why the “China-centric” WHO had caused “so much death” by “severely mismanaging and covering up” the coronavirus’ spread, including by making the “disastrous” decision to oppose travel restrictions on China.

The U.S. was the WHO’s largest single donor. Trump said the United States contributes roughly $400 to $500 million per year to WHO, while China offers only about $40 million.

Letter from Donald Trump to WHO:

This is the letter sent to Dr. Tedros of the World Health Organization.  It is self-explanatory!

The letter offers a bullet-point list of shortcomings at the agency that Trump claimed could have been prevented under the right leadership.

The WHO “consistently ignored credible reports of the virus” in December 2019. By the end of that month, it was clear at the organization that the virus was a “major health concern.” Taiwanese authorities told health officials at the organization about human-to-human transmission, but that revelation was not shared with the international community.

CNN ‘MASK POLICE’ REPORTER CAUGHT ON CAMERA REMOVING HER OWN AFTER BRIEFING 

Trump’s letter stated that the International Health Regulations require countries to report the “risk of a health emergency within 24 hours.”

The letter laid the blame squarely on China and the WHO for weeks of non-action. The health body even accused U.S. travel restrictions to the country in late February of causing “more harm than good.”

HEALTH EXPERTS ISSUE WARNINGS AFTER TRUMP SAYS HE’S TAKING HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE

“By the time you finally declared the virus a pandemic on March 11, 2020, it had killed more than 4,000 people and infected more than 100,000 people in at least 114 countries,” the letter read.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-threatens-to-keep-who-funding-freeze-in-place

The post Trump threatens to keep WHO funding freeze in place after WH investigation first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

The world is changing. Three decades ago, it would have been inconceivable to find posters calling out the opportunities to be discovered from trade between the Middle East and China.

It was the West that called – with its freedoms and sophistication, its imperial past a double-edged sword that attracted and repelled in almost equal measure. Europe and the United States have an ambiguous relationship across much of the Arab world, forged over the course of more than a hundred years. Self-interested and duplicitous on the one hand (with a catalogue of failed interventions, poor policy decisions and unfortunate choices of political partners), but also open, tolerant, well-structured and worthy of admiration on the other.

Today, in 2017, there is a new show in town. Across the Arab world, the future seems to lie in the East – and above all with China.

Chinese economic growth over the last three decades has been nothing short of spectacular. According to the World Bank, more than 800m people were lifted from below the poverty line since 1990 in China, while at the same time, GDP has risen from $360bn to nearly $12tn as per capita income rose by 49 times.

Earlier this year, King Salman of Saudi Arabia pointedly undertook a tour not of the US and Europe but of Asia, ending up in Beijing

In 2013, President Xi announced a new project to flex these economic muscles and also use them to prepare for China’s long-term future. This initiative, now known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), seeks to engage in a massive investments across infrastructure including energy, transportation and communications not only across Asia, but in Africa and Europe as well.

	Chinese Premier Li Keqiang meets with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (2nd-R) at Great Hall of the People on March 17, 2017 in Beijing, China [Getty]

China’s appetite has not gone unnoticed in the Gulf States and in Saudi Arabia, as the adverts and posters at airports and along the highways show. It has not gone unnoticed at the very highest levels. Earlier this year, King Salman of Saudi Arabia pointedly undertook a tour not of the US and Europe but of Asia, ending up in Beijing to demonstrate the importance of economic ties between Saudi and China.

These connections lie partly in current levels of trade – valued at around $42 billion last year, a sum that is significant but hardly overwhelming. But there is more to it than that. Saudi Arabia and China, noted the king during his visit to Beijing, share a strategic vision of the world, one where both “promote global and regional peace, security and prosperity”.

There are fledgling joint ventures between the two countries too, such as the investments by the Saudi Arabian Industries Corporation (Sabic) in a polycarbonate complex in Tianjin or a substantial stake in the Fujian refinery and petrochemical plant by Aramco – or a series of licenses granted to Chinese companies in Saudi earlier this year that take the number of Chinese businesses investing in the country to nearly one hundred and fifty.

There is a natural mirror, in other words, between Saudi Vision 2030 and the Belt and Road Initiative that is China’s signature economic and foreign policy

This mutual co-operation is being driven, on one level at least, by changes in the way that Saudi and China see the world around them, and also how they see the challenges they both face in coming decades.

There is a natural mirror, in other words, between Saudi Vision 2030 on the one hand, with its ambitious reform programme, its attempt to streamline the state and to diversify from over-dependence on oil, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that is China’s signature economic and foreign policy. Likewise, the BRI is designed to plan for the future, planning ahead to ensure energy security that is essential to the country’s continued growth, and also to make a sweeping series of strategic investments that have long-term goals.

The overlap and the prospect of working together was neatly captured by the Saudi energy minister, Khalid al-Falih in May 2017. “The potential offered by this unique initiative”, he said, “is immense and promising”.

The problem is that Saudi Arabia is not the only partner that China is keen to engage. While oil imports from Saudi Arabia have long been a significant part of Beijing’s energy imports, so too are those from Qatar – currently locked in a diplomatic dispute with Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States.

China has played an even wider field, hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just a week after King Salman’s visit

China has been careful to build ties with Iran too, playing a major role in the building of Tehran’s metro system in the 1990s. Indeed, China has played an even wider field, hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just a week after King Salman’s visit – itself not long before the visit of President Abbas of Palestine.

Through this process, China has tried to stay out of the thorny regional politics of the Middle East, with President Xi affirming his hope that “Palestine and Israel can achieve peace as soon as possible and live and work in peace”. The message is clear: The Chinese are in town to do business – not to take sides.

There is logic to this approach, although whether it is sustainable in the long run is more questionable.

China does not have the baggage of the deep, complicated and in many ways unhappy relationship that the US, the UK and other parts of Europe have with the Middle East and Gulf. Starting with a blank page and emphasising the prospects of mutual gains, the benefits of working together and the profits of collaboration is an enviable position.

Navigating the rivalries not only between countries in the region, but between competing factions within them is no easy task

And yet, if only life were so simple as letting money do the talking. Navigating the rivalries not only between countries in the region, but between competing factions within them is no easy task. Keeping everyone happy is even less easy at a time of change and transition.

President Xi is smart and right to stress that Chinese connections with the Islamic world and with the Gulf region go back more than a thousand years – much more. He is right too, to note that relations were commercial, and never military or imperial.

But that might change in years to come. The difference is that the intensification of trade and investment leads to tricky choices. Whether those can be put off forever is one of the key questions of the coming decade.

Peter Frankopan is Professor of Global History at Oxford University. His international bestseller, The Silk Roads: A New History of the World is published by Bloomsbury.

Follow him on Twitter: @peterfrankopan

Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.

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Source: https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2017/9/27/how-long-can-china-avoid-middle-east-politics

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